Your Electoral College Predictions

That had been my impression of young voters, as well, but Derideo_Te saw me post that to someone & corrected me with this:

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-ta...-outvoted-older-generations-in-2018-midterms/

I saw Moore just before the election & he wasn't predicting a Trump victory; he was encouraging everyone to keep in mind that Trump could win again. He clearly believed that things were looking good for Biden; he just didn't believe, wisely, that we should be complacent about the way things, "look."

That's my big take-away/revelation from this election: the Trumpian view is representative of at least a third to two-fifths of the country. In other words, this is a significant part of WHO WE ARE, as a nation. It's a bit disillusioning. But it's something the rest of us need to accept.

Obviously, almost no one likes tax increases. But my understanding is that 70% of the country supports Medicare for All. Where did you get your information, on that one? Is that just your impression? And do you, then, as you imply about Trump supporters, don't believe polls? Let me add, that I realize that a person needs to look closely at the wording of those polls, because that can have a great impact, & essentially misrepresent those opinions; the same is true, however, of all statistics.

To that point, Biden is not calling for a total, "lockdown." Is it that you believe that is what he's for, or did you mean that this is what you think, "Mid-American voters," believe? Again, I think the majority of typical, polled Americans, support addressing Covid-19 with restrictions, vigorous testing, & tracing.

As far as, "huge spending programs--" though in this case I'm not aware of any specific polling, one way or the other, so it is just my impression-- I believe a majority do/would support a major infrastructure program, predominantly for the jobs it would provide, but also because many recognize the hazard of our aged bridges, water-treatment facilities, perhaps air-traffic control systems, & so forth, as well as the way that other under-developed (as w/ universal internet access; some would also include railway projects) or ill-maintained (as our interstate hwy system & airports) infrastructure, holds us back, as a nation.

Lastly, the green new deal is something that I think Biden said, in one of the debates, he does not support; rather, he does support investment in things like wind & solar power, which I don't know is all that unpopular. In other words, the terminology, "green new deal," does, in itself, carry w/ it various connotations to different people & so can be used to misrepresent people's general opinion towards any investment in green technologies.

You both SAW Trump's making a play for the black vote AND believed it would have an big enough impact to factor into your calculations, back when you first started this thread? Tell me more.

 

I forgot to mention, in my congrats to you, that I had been wrong about PA (as well as FL), also; though, who knows, there now seems to be some hope that Biden-Harris will pull that one out. So, either way, that's a, "push," between our predictions.

As far as Georgia, I picked it for Biden, you called it for Trump. Regardless of how close it is, if you get the final call right, once it's made, that's to your credit.

I did strongly believe that the Dems would win AZ. But in the final Tallies, I had Biden at 335, you had him at 278.

A) If he wins w/ 270, all I can say to you is, well done!

B) If Biden were to win GA, which was my call-- so I would have actually more correct states than you-- nevertheless, w/o PA, Biden's total would be 286, & you'd still only be 8 pts off, which is the most important metric.

C) If Biden ends up getting PA, but can't quite turn GA, his total will be 290 (this is the same # I called a, "generous," view towards Trump, in our exchange, on p.2, when I compared my own prediction, minus FL & GA, which I conceded I thought would be close). If that's the result, again, I would have been off by 45 electors; your total would be only 12 off the mark: not bad.

D) For our picks to be comparable, Biden needs both PA & GA. That would make it 306 Biden to 232 Trump. My call would have been perfect--including one of Maine's electors for Trump & one of Nebraska's for Biden-- except for Florida. Nevertheless, that would put me shy by 29 electors. Your 3 errors (because I see, now, you didn't give that 1 Omaha, NB, elector to Biden; +AZ & GA) would have your total off by 28. I'd be willing to call our guesses about even, if this one particular scenario were to ultimately prove out.

 

Oh, you were thinking that Trump was going to win. Even had that occurred, it would have been (as it now is) a close election, hardly a, "mandate."

But that makes it funny that-- since I guess it seemed to me, at that point, that Biden would squeak out a victory-- I thought that you were being ironic about Biden having a "mandate!" You know, like, crawling over glass to barely finish ahead of the other guy, & then claiming, "No competition."

 

That wasn't the bet...

 

Yup, my map failed... I severely underestimated the nationwide Dem fraud machine. This country is completely ****ed no matter who ends up winning in the end... There's no recovery from such a blatantly fraudulent election as this one...

 

How so? The bet was that I pay 25 to the charity of your choice if Trump won the popular vote and vice-versa, from what I recall

 

My work was fine, and the data was all very good for Trump... I just severely underestimated the nationwide Dem fraud machine... Should've known that since Biden himself is on video bragging about having "the most extensive and inclusive voter fraud organization in history"

 

You mistyped in the agreement and I accepted it on that technicality... You said that you'd pay either way...

Sucks when Conservatives play liberal games back at liberals, eh?

 

LOL, typical excuse we were all expecting to be frank.

"Bank on it." LOLOL

 

I'm libertarian, which is why I chose the charity I did. Here's what you agreed to:

"Tell you what, I'll take you up on that. If Trump wins the popular vote, I'll donate $25 to the charity of your choice. If Biden wins the popular vote, I'll donate $25 to the charity of your choice. Official vote counts only. Deal?"

And you agreed. Will you be a man of your word or not?

 

Seemingly I'm not so far off ... I thought better of farmers but I guess they don't mind losing their farms and their lives. Oh well. Factory Farming for the Win.

 

http://politicalforum.com/index.php...ege-predictions.579854/page-4#post-1072161348

You typed out that you would pay either way. That's the technicality that I am speaking of.

 

Ah, I see the typo now. Welp, if that's how you want to play it, even though this whole thing started with you saying you'd be willing to bet that Trump wins the popular vote, let me know where to send the donation.

 

A 118yr old dude who died in 1984 voted via absentee in Detroit, Michigan...

 

Evidence?

 

Read what you said. You said you'd pay either way. I agreed to that. I am a man of my word. Are you?

 

He voted for Republicans, Democrats or Independeds?

 

I answered this question a few posts ago.

 

Turns out it is more fake news: https://www.logically.ai/factchecks/library/0dd425c5

The website is based on name matches when it comes to absentee ballots. Turns out the actual guy who voted was William Tarnley Bradley, who is 61 and very much alive.

 

As I suspected, more fake news: https://www.logically.ai/factchecks/library/0dd425c5

 

I don't actually want you to send a donation anywhere. Feel free to do as you please.

I was also saying those words under the pretense that the election would be held mostly fairly, and not be a massive nationwide fraud-fest that will be legally disputed for months...

 

https://mvic.sos.state.mi.us/Voter/Index
https://twitter.com/fleccas/status/1324216584219623424/photo/4

William Bradley, from Detroit MI... You can look his name up in the voter index I provided and see for yourself.

 

I predicted that baseless conspiracy theories would be factor, which is why I specified that we should rely on the official vote count and that conspiracy theories wouldn't be used as an excuse. If you want to use the typo as justification, I'm fine with that, that makes sense. But you said you would go with the official vote count, so conspiracy theories aren't a good excuse.

 

Already addressed above. It's fake news.

 

It's blatantly obvious who "he" "voted" for...