We won't EVER run out of oil. literally.

Go to google image and ask Who Owns Big Oil................

 

Mr. Swedish Guy is discussing supply and demand. it usually works. Human-caused global warming is a myth. Though it has an effect other forces exert more influence. What I wonder would happen to the earth if most of its hydrocarbons were floating around in our atmosphere, It could be trouble.,

 

think he was referring to getting the hydrogen out of water for energy

http://fuelcellstore.com/horizon-hyrdocar-fcjj-20

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Have I called you a fool yet? If not, it's long overdue.

Ah, but you need not worry about that. Do you know the single best way to know which is the best energy source to go for, the most efficient one? Prices. IF oil is as inefficient and wasteful as you claim it is, it will be uncompetitive. There is absolutely no need at all for elites to take direct control of the economy and steer it in the "right direction". It's not as if people heavily involved in the energy industry doesn't already know what you know, right? They certainly have every incentive to know as much about it as possible. What I'm saying is not that oil is better than e.g. solar power. I'm actually not making a judgement there at all, nor do I care, nor do I consider myself sufficiently knowledgeable about energy stuff to even attempt to care. But I do understand how markets work, and from that I know that the most efficient energy source will be the most competitive.

A rise in prices will result in a rise in supply. And there are plenty of substitutes when it comes to energy. What's the problem?

Let's clarify some things. Firstly, the supply of oil is not the same thing as how much oil there physically is on the planet. The current supply of oil is not the total amount of oil on earth. As prices rise, the supply of oil will increase because more oil becomes protifable to extract. Thus, there is not necessarily a continuingly decreasing supply of oil, even though the total amount of oil on the earth might be decreasing.

Secondly, demand is a function of price. In other words, demand is higher at lower prices and lower at higher prices. There is not a fixed amount of demand that has to be met. As prices rise, demand will fall.

Thirdly, there are substitutes for oil. As the supply of oil falls and the demand for energy rises, alternative sources become more popular. As demand for those increase, prices will rise, and supply of them will increase. This is what will happen in the long run, which is why I see no need to worry.

Love you too <33

What part of it are you having trouble understanding? Am I shattering your worldview by pointing out that we are literally never going to run out of oil?

 

Average people with a 401(k). Investors/owners don't have to worry about running out of oil. The people who manage the companies are the ones that should be concerned.

I was very careful with my wording. Stockholders pay CEO's tens of millions of dollars a year to manage the company. Owners of public companies are rarely involved with planning for future catastrophes. There is a reason those guys get paid big bucks.

 

http://www.whoownsbigoil.com/

Pension Funds 28.9%
Asset Management companies 24.7%
Individual Investors 18.7%
IRA's 17.9%
Other Institutional 6.9%
Corporate Management 2.9%

Only 2.9% of those investors should be concerned about running out of oil. I'm not saying they should worry because they are investors. I am saying that they should worry because they are managers. It is their job to plan ahead.

Who can add a cubit to his height by worrying?

 

And the next day? What happens when we stop using it?

Answer: Nothing. It will be just fine.

 

I'm glad to hear you are so positive about that. I'm sure we are all comforted by your unwarranted (or at the very least unexplained) optimism.

 

Oh it's renewable and it constantly being produced. The problem is the line at the drive through takes FOREVER.

 

I think you mean the reasonably usable supply.

The current supply is what is being pumped

That is not necessarily true. Because as prices rise, demand decreases. The price required to increase supply may be greater than the price which demand will bear.

And since demand is fairly inelastic, at least in the short term, a rapid price increase can definitely have a significant negative impact on the economy. We have seen that in the past.

Just what I said. So the falling demand may not support the price it costs to increase supply.

There is a fixed amount of demand at a given price. When that price increase, it reduces demand, but often because of, or at the cost of, the economy.

A sharp jump in oil price may send the demand down because it puts the economy in recession. That happened more than once in the 70s and early 80s.

There are partial substitutes and they are not always immediately available nor cost effective. We could all drive electric cars, but we cannot make that transition overnight nor can we do it rapidly without great economic cost. In the meantime, the economy takes a hit.

Which is why I see a reason to worry, and why we should not simply ignore the fact that we have a limited supply of cheap oil and an ever increasing demand, and leave our economy exposed to the whims of the global market and price shocks.

We will be better off and better protected against economic shock by encouraging efficiency in our use of fossil fuels, development of alternative energy, and protecting our economy from volatile oil price shocks.

Unfortunately, our past policy has been to simply develop oil as cheaply as possible and as much as possible. That is fine for a while when countries like Saudi Arabia are flooding the markets. But they our alternative energy resources languish, and we buy gas guzzling SUVs. Then the inevitable shortage hits, and because demand is inelastic, prices skyrocket, and our economy takes a dive. That cycle has happened over an over again because our only energy policy has been to maximize big oil profits.

 

People lived without using oil for thousands of years. I think I have explained that. I was young but now I am old but I have never heard of a death linked to someone dying without oil or oil derivatives.

My optimism is not unfounded at all. People need air, water and food in order to live. If you don't believe me then try to live for 2 or 3 years without driving your vehicle. Make sure you have access to air, water and food during that time frame. I'd be willing to bet my entire net worth that you would survive.

You can panic if you wish but I will save my panic for a time when there is an emergency.

 

First, this is nothing but goal post shifting. Nobody is talking about humanity dying off. The OP claimed that the economy would not crash because of a shortage of oil

Second, you do realize that humanity has become much more dependent on oil than ever before. Sure most of humanity would not die off. But surely people would die either by wars over the remaining gas or other causes.

Modern civilization relies on oil. When civilization collapses, people die. You're now acting like it's no big deal because not having gas won't kill humanity. That's for the HUGE REVELATION. But nobody cares.

 

This would only happen if an immediate collapse in oil production occurred, this is unlikely. For example, when oil prices rose, cars became more efficient, more hybrids were sold etc. The market would slowly convert as the price creeped up, much in the same way it has already during short oil price jumps. Oil will slowly get more expensive, some car company will say "hey our car gets 60mpg!" people will buy that car, slowing and conserving the supply of oil, then as it becomes more expensive, that same car company will then come out and say "hey our car doesn't even use gas!" people will buy that car. The reason alternative energy has failed thus far is there's no need for a market of it right now. We have tons of oil and it's cheaper and more advanced. Sure alternative energy is initially expensive, but when gas creeps up to ultra expensive, it might actually be cheaper, and as more people buy it up, that money will give companies the ability to expand and advance, until it's just as cheap and available as gas.

 

Holy crap, someone actually read and understood the OP. Amazing.

 

Best unintended hilarity post of the year so far.

 

Haha, by literally I take it he meant 'figuratively, literally'. That second definition of the term

Anyway - he's quite right that as oil becomes more scarce and more valuable, new prospecting methods will be developed, but clearly - as you alluded to - there is some limit on the amount of oil in the ground, even if we don't know what it is yet.

 

Most realize that who have examined the issue.

What you need to realize, along with many Americans, is that we NEED to begin conservation of oil like has never before been done.

We actually do not need oil, but we absolutely need clean air. If we are STUPID, we will forget our needs and put our wants over them

Are you working to enable wants over needs?

 

Yeah, but you know what?

You can create a weapon that can destroy oil.

We already have microbes that eat oil and that is what is being used to clean up oil spills.

But with further alterations they can become a weapon far greater impact that a nuclear one.

Think of how many things we have from oil, and think of how many things that will be gone or affected without oil.

And that will hurt any country that has a huge dependency on oil.

 

Yep, no panic, just go back to a world population of 500 million, as it was before the advent of fossil fuels:



Do you note the sharp increase in world population at the advent of fossil fuels? This is no coincidence, because fossil fuels make food production much more efficient and allow the modern, mechanized agriculture. Today, we are practically eating oil, with 1 calorie of food consumed requiring at least 3 calories of (mostly) oil energy input. Here is a quantification:



This means that, in the US, agriculture alone needs about 400 million barrels of oil per year, or a bit less than 10% of our total oil use. That also means that agriculture alone needs more energy than the total capacity of today's renewables combined.

So, go ahead and tell people that they can live without oil. 500 million can. 7 billion? Probably not.

Yet, we are pi**ing away oil at a rate that is unimaginable, with the business plan being: "The free market will fix it for us". That's not a business plan for me, that is wishful thinking.

 

Now in order for your thesis to have any validity all you have to do is post a source of energy that is even close to the price of fossil fuels at the current time. Otherwise you are just an optimist not an economist.

 

We all understood it. Understanding it doesn't mean it makes sense though. Nor does understanding necessitate agreement.

 

MOD EDIT - Rule 3

Is there any meaningful difference? The point is that the supply of oil is not the same thing as how much oil there is on the planet.

No need to bother with details like that. Supply, as I use it here, is an abstraction. How oil is produced or transported isn't really relevant.

And as ripples on water, it will seek its own level, an equilibrium. There are no suprises here. The law of supply and demand explains it for us.

But there is not going to be any rapid increases in the price of oil due to oil being finite. Perhaps due to cartels raising the price articifically, or due to dirsuptions in the transport and production of oil which will temporarily greatly reduce the supply. But it will not be because oil is finite. What exactly are you arguing here anyways? That there are drawbacks to being dependent on foreign oil? No one doubts that, but it's irrelevant.

But oil is NEVER going to vanish over night, so any such scenario is totally irrelevant. It does not matter substitutes are not immidiately available, because oil won't be gone over night. Scenarios like these are wholly irrelevant. When there is less and less oil that will be reflected in the price, and this will happen steadily over a long time, giving plenty of time and incentives for alternatives to gradually replace oil. Many people seem to believe that we'll just completely ignore the gradually rising price of oil and just continue using oil until we've used it all up, at which point the economy would collapse because it would still be fully dependent on oil. Anhyone who knows basic economics would know that no such thing is ever going to happen.

it seems that what you're really worried about is that the oil is foreign, and the problems and risks associated with that. Why not just drill for oil in the USA? All your problems would be solved?

No, I meant literally, literally. We are NEVER going to run out of oil, ever, literally. Note, I am NOT saying that we can continue using oil forever or that oil is infinite. I am saying we will never run out of it.

 

And why would I have to do that? And keep in mind, the price is not set in stone. It's not as if we're using oil as inefficiently as we did in the 19th century. You can't just ignore technology.

 

Because your hypothesis is that a lower oil inventory will not have an economic impact on the world. And no one said you can ignor technology but it is also foolish to think that technology will always solve a problem.

 

No, I did not say that.

MOD EDIT - Rule 2