NC, AZ, UT, KS and FL polling (among others) shows bad news for Trump and the GOP

There is just no other way to describe it. This is all very recent polling.

Arizona, a state that a Democrat has only won once in the last 64 years:

OH - Predictive Insights (R):
1,060 LV, Moe = +/-3.0

Clinton 47
Trump 42
Margin: Clinton +5

According to the press release, Clinton is winning in the women's vote in this very conservative state by +12.

In 2012, Pres. Obama LOST in the womens' vote in Arizona by 7 points to Romney, 46-53.

Also, the PPP (D) poll from 17.05.2016 showed Clinton only two points behind Trump in a GOP +10 state.

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North Carolina, a once totally reliable Republican state, one that a Democrat has only won twice in the last 56 years:

PPP (D):

Clinton 43
Trump 43
Johnson 4
Margin: TIE

Strict two-way:

Trump 48
Clinton 46
Margin: Trump +2

NC was the 2nd closest state in both 2008 and in 2012. But President George W. Bush, Jr won the Tarheel State both times quite easily, by between +12 and +13. This state in a GOP wave year should not even be close. The GOP candidate should be running away with this state, and Trump is not. In fact, Clinton has a very good chance of picking up NC, because Johnson WILL be on the ballot in November.

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Utah has been covered in a number of threads by me, the most recent of them HERE.

Dan Jones and Associates / Utah Policy
614 RV, Moe = +/-3.95

Trump 36
Clinton 27
Johnson 10
Margin: Trump +9

Again, Utah is a state that a Republican SHOULD be easily winning by +40:

2004: Bush 43 +45.54%
2000: Bush 43 +40.49%
1988: Bush 41 +34.17%
1984: Reagan +49.83%
1980: Reagan +52.20%
1972: Nixon +41.25%
1968: Nixon +19.42%

Those are the cycles back to 1968 where the Republican won nationally as well as taking Utah, as expected. In only 2 of those 8 winning cycles did the Republican win with less than +40.

Here the cycles where the Democrat won nationally but the Republican still, as expected, won Utah:

2012: Romney +47.88%
2008: McCain +27.98%
1996: Dole +21.07%
1992: Bush 41 +16.02%
1976: Ford +28.79%

Exluding Romney's astronomic +47.88% from 2012, in cycles where the Democrat won nationally, the Utah margins are decidedly under +40, but they sure as hell are not +9.

And in the SUSA poll from just 10 days before this one, it's a 35/35 tie between Clinton and Trump - an absolute catastrophe for the GOP in -VERIFIABLY- the most conservative state in the Union in presidential electoral politics.

I still think the Republican will end up winning Utah, but the margins are pointing to a national pasting for the GOP come November.

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Kansas - a huge surprise, to say the least:

Zogby:
433 RV, MoE = +/-4.7

Clinton 43
Trump 36
Margin: Clinton +7

In KANSAS!!!

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Florida - the mother of all battleground states:

Quinnipiac (which has been very hard on Clinton in every possible way):
975 RV, MoE = +/-3.1

Clinton 47
Trump 39
Margin: Clinton +8

The last time that a presidential nominee won Florida by more than +8 points: Bush 41, in 1988.

When a Democrat wins nationally, then the Florida margin is leaner than the Ohio margin, which in turn is leaner than the Pennsylvania margin. If Clinton holds a +8 in Florida, then she is practically guaranteed blowout margins in Ohio and Pennyslvania.

Meanwhile, Clinton is clocking in at over +20 in California and in New York. We are seeing not one shred of evidence that the "Blue Wall" is not holding. It is holding quite well. And Clinton is very likely to win the Obama 2012 states plus NC, AZ and GA, just for starters. Not to mention a possible upset in a small state like South Dakota, or even in Kansas.

The numbers coming in from all corners, from very disparate pollsters, are pointing to a huge disaster for the GOP come November with Donald Trump as their nominee.

I can't wait to see a new slew of Indiana polling soon. I am willing to be good money that Clinton makes the state competitive, ala Obama 2008, and that she can actually flip the state just as he did. And don't assume that Alaska will always be red. This could be the year for a real Clinton surprise in our nation's most far-flung state.


-Stat

 

It's amazing how hard cold numbers can cause crickets....

 

Sounds like Trump is pretty much dead even with her. Why isn't she completely dominating him? RCP only has Clinton up by six which is nothing.

From the OPs own link.

Florida – Clinton over Trump 47 – 39 percent, compared to 43 – 42 percent May 10. Sanders tops Trump 45 – 39 percent.
 Ohio – Clinton and Trump tied 40 – 40 percent, compared to a small 43 – 39 percent Trump lead May 10. Sanders leads Trump 48 – 38 percent.
 Pennsylvania – Clinton at 42 percent to Trump’s 41 percent, virtually unchanged from the 43 – 42 percent lean to Clinton May 10. Sanders tops Trump 47 – 40 percent.
With third party candidates in the race, results are:
 Florida – Clinton tops Trump 42 – 36 percent, with 7 percent for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 3 percent for Green Party candidate Jill Stein;
 Ohio – Clinton at 38 percent, with Trump at 36 percent, Johnson at 8 percent and Stein at 3 percent;
 Pennsylvania – Clinton at 39 percent to Trump’s 36 percent, with 9 percent for Johnson and 4 percent for Stein.

 

There were two polls released for Arizona on the same day. Here is the other with Trump up 5 points.


http://tucson.com/strategies-poll/pdf_44d91f34-bbab-57a0-aed2-4683ff1451cf.html

. Problem in Kansas is not so much Trumps fault as it is the Governor's problem. Look on the bright side: as of 6/22/2016 Las Vegas had Trump more likely to win than than was the UK was to vote leave. How did that turn out?

 

So far the only state trump has a lock on is Idaho.
Idaho is simply too stupid to vote anything but the R.

 

Yes and the pollsters all got Brexit wrong too.

 

This is, of course, a lie.

Many pollsters predicted Brexit.

Thanks for playing.

 

Ahhh, Strategies 360.

Pardon me while I leave the room to laugh for a while.

Thanks.

 

According to the Guardian, 55 pollsters predicted the unfortunate Brexit result correctly.

Donna j tramp leads in a total of ZERO polls. Not fox news... none.

 

State polls=not true National polls=true

 

You're excused and don't come back without showing how their poll is wrong. Don't like the result? Blame the pollster. I see.

 

You missed the point. Try again.

 

why bother having the election, then? You seem to have it all figured out.

 

Time to administer some statistical humble pie.

I see you didn't actually read the poll. This is a common illness among many of my Conservative friends. Tsk-tsk. I thought I would give you time to recognize your error. However, sensing that that day may never come, let me show you why the poll is not representative of the state of Arizona and actually, in fact, is VERY bad news for the GOP, far worse than you can ever imagine:



Now, I screenshotted the link as well, but for everyones' convenience, here is the direct link again:

http://tucson.com/strategies-poll/pdf_44d91f34-bbab-57a0-aed2-4683ff1451cf.html

Do you now see the error of your ways? Hint: look at what I boxed in in red.

Yepp. That is not a poll of the entire state. That is a poll ONLY of Maricopa county. Ergo, this poll is NOT a state poll and cannot be representative of the entire state. Ergo your posting tried to pass off a county poll as a state poll, which is, to put it mildly, intellectually dishonest.

The poll of Maricopa County only shows Trump winning by +5, 44 to 39. Trump is way under 50. That is a very bad sign for a GOP presumptive nominee in what should be a core GOP state.

Furthermore, here is some voting data from Maricopa county from the last number of presidential cycles. Fasten your seat-belt:

2012, Maricopa County, AZ: Romney 54.3 / Obama 43.6, margin = Romney +10.7 / National winner: Obama
2008, Maricopa County, AZ: McCain 54.4 / Obama 43.9, margin = McCain +10.5 / National winner: Obama
2004, Maricopa County, AZ: Bush (43) 56.9 / Kerry 42.2, margin = Bush (43) +14.7 / National winner: Bush (43)
2000, Maricopa County, AZ: Bush (43) 53.2 / Gore 42.9, margin = Bush (43) +10.3 / National winner: Bush (43)
1996, Maricopa County, AZ: Dole 47.2 / Clinton (Bill) 44.5 / Perot 7.2, margin = Dole +2.7 / National winner and AZ winner: Clinton (Bill)
1992, Maricopa County, AZ: Bush (41) 41.1 / Clinton (Bill) 32.6 / Perot 25.3, margin = Bush (41) +8.5 / National winner: Clinton (Bill)1988, Maricopa County, AZ:
1988, Maricopa County, AZ: Bush (41) 64.9 / Dukakis 33.9, margin = Bush (41) +31.0 / National winner: Bush (41)
1984, Maricopa County, AZ: Reagan 72.0 / Mondale 27.1, margin = Reagan +44.9 / National winner: Reagan
1980, Maricopa County, AZ: Reagan 65.0 / Carter 24.6 / Anderson 8.0, margin = Reagan +40.4 / National winner: Reagan
1976, Maricopa County, AZ: Ford 61.7 / Carter 34.5, margin = Ford +27.2 / National winner: Carter
1972, Maricopa County, AZ: Nixon 69.3 / McGovern 27.0, margin = Nixon +42.3 / National winner: Nixon
1968, Maricopa County, AZ: Nixon 59.1 / Humphrey 31.4 / Wallace 9.1, margin = Nixon +27.7 / National winner: Nixon
1964, Maricopa County, AZ: Goldwater 53.9 / Johnson 46.0, margin = Goldwater +7.9 / National winner: Johnson
1960, Maricopa County, AZ: Nixon 59.4 / Kennedy 40.6, margin = Nixon +18.8 / National winner: Kennedy


This verifiable data takes us back in time 56 years, which, including the coming cycle, will be 15 cycles. In the past 14 cycles, the Republican has always won Maricopa County, Arizona, regardless of the state or national winner. Actually, that's 16 cycles, because Eisenhower won this county in 1956 and 1952 as well, only, I can't get my hands on the data quite yet. So, we are actually talking about 64 years of electoral history for this county, or essentially, 3 generations.

One can also see that for the most time between 1960 and 1988 - the GOP margin is +20 or decidedly more in this county. There are some unbelievable "blowout" margins here. See: above

Since 2000 however, in the last 4 cycles, this county has become a roughly GOP +10 county - a sure sign of demographic shift in this state, but in no way absolutely conclusive as to which candidate will win the state on the whole. Take a look at 1964: Goldwater won his home state by exactly +1% and took Maricopa county by +7.9. But Johnson won nationally in a landslide. Look at 1996, where Bill Clinton won nationally by +8.5 over challenger Bob Dole. Dole took this county by less than 3 points. Clinton also won AZ in that year, for the first time since 1948. So, statistically, a GOPer clocking in at less than +10 in this county is definitely in trouble nationally and likely, in the state as well.

Therefore, putting aside your obvious ignorance about polling, this poll is definitely not representative of the state of Arizona at all. You don't take a poll of a county that is in no way a swing county and try to put it up against a bona-fide state poll. That is just plain old stupid. The data proves conclusively that Maricopa County is NOT a swing county. Ergo, my claim that your posting was/is intellectually dishonest is now backed up by real, hard data.

Once again, to note, Romney won Maricopa by +10.7, McCain by +10.5 and Bush 43 by +10.1 (in 2000) and in all three cases, those gentlemen lost in the NPV to the Democrat and of course, lost the EC in both 2008 and 2012. Ergo, it's pretty fair to say that a Republican who is clocking in at only +5 against Hillary in this very staunch Conservative county is likely heading for a pasting nationally in November and indeed, could very well lose the state to her.

So, in spite of the fact that your ignorance caused you to post a poll as a state poll, which it is NOT, and I have proven it, I do want to thank you, for it gave me the opportunity to give people who post such ignorance a good, hard statistical whipping.

Now, why did I laugh about Strategies 360? I laughed not because I dislike the pollster. Actually, they have put out some very good solid information. Only, they normally don't do county only polls. I suspect that they were paid good money to do this.

You can now produce data to explain to us why a nonsensical county-only poll should be taken as seriously as a state-wide poll. And don't forget, the state-wide poll that shows Clinton up +5 on Trump was taken by a decidedly REPUBLICAN pollster. Or you can graciously concede that you missed this very important detail.

Oh, and on a parting note: it's not your or anyone else's business to tell people that they are "excused". Such childish writing really has no place here among adults....

Derideo_Te Gaius_Marius bhoyal bois darc chunk Carla_Danger Cosmo CourtJester DennisTate Guno mertex Paperview Vandalshandle Pardy PARTIZAN1 perotista Taima toddwv wolfsister77 Andrew Jackson

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The thread is not about me. Do try to learn to not get personal. Adults debate facts. Children throw mud.
You don't need to be adressing me at all. Learn the difference.

Thanks.

 

Very ironic. It seems to me that this thread is very much about you. But the attempt at righteous indignation is very perplexing, considering the constant tactic from the progressive left to dodge facts, arguments, data, & reason, & TURN it to personal smears, innuendo, & deflections is most ironic. I should save this quote to use hundreds of times in my 'debates' with demeaning leftists.

You seem to think that a poll is the same as an election. It is not. They are not always accurate as a gauge of public opinion, as they are mostly tools of propagandists. Your use of them here seems to support that perception.

 

You rang?

 

Liberal media!!!

 

Poll schmoll.
When are the debates?

 

It's funny how now, 7 weeks later, not much has changed, and where it has changed, it has been to Clinton's advantage:

Clinton is ahead in Florida by a slightly larger margin than 7 weeks ago.
Clinotn is CONSIDERABLY more ahead in North Carolina than she was 7 weeks ago.
It's close in AZ, just like it was 7 weeks ago.
Trump is still around only 10 points ahread in, of all states, UTAH. No change there.
And in Kansas, he is 5 points ahead, in a state that should be an R+20 state....

The more things change, the more they stay the same... lol....

 

The Right (with the help of Rightwing Media) has scoured the polls....

and the BEST they can come up with is an LA Times outlier and a Zogby which shows Trump "only" losing by 2 points nationally. And that's not even a state-by-state Electoral College map "good poll" for Trump.