From TODAY, 23.08.2016. Lead article: http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/201...ers-clinton-maintains-lead-poll-shows-n636061 Poll toplines: https://de.scribd.com/document/3219...-15-8-21?secret_password=RuOFZV3qoVzP3E4j8aK6 17,459 RV, MoE = +/-1.1 (The values in parentheses are the values from the last two previous Survey Monkey polls, from one and two weeks ago) Clinton 50 (50, 51) Trump 42 (41, 41) margin: Clinton +8 (+9, +10) Clinton 43 (43, 44) Trump 38 (37, 3 Johnson 11 (11, 10) margin: Clinton +5 (+6, +6) So, we see the slightest incremental upcreep for Trump, which is well within the MoE of all of this stuff. The mean average is: Clinton +6.5 (+7.5, +8.0). That is in line with the Ohio aggregate right now: Clinton +4.4 (where the Democrat generally goes 2-3 points worse in Ohio than nationally). And it is in line with the Pennsylvania aggregate right now: Clinton +9.05 (where the Democrat generally does 2-3 points better in Pennsylvania than nationally). That being said, her strength in this poll, despite a HUGE number of polled, is still understated. Why? Because the minority vote is vastly undercalculated: -1,182 Black respondents out of 17,459 RV = 6.77%. Twice that many, in terms of percentage (13%), will go to the polls on election day. -Likewise, 860 Latino respondents out of 17,459 RV = 4.93%. MORE than twice that many, in terms of percentage (10-12%), will go to the polls on election day. So, considering that she is sweeping those groups, her current margin is bound to be larger than this poll indicates, as I have been mentioning many times over and over and over. The partisan spread of the poll is a little I-heavy, but the D-R spread is reality: D35 / R29 / I34, D+6. It is far more likely to be D39 / R 32 / I29, D+7 -Stat
Meh... asking 30% more democrats than republicans and getting only +9 points in surplus? Pathetic. Polling by private corporations, without any public control, where results do not correlate with objective reality. Why would anyone care?
There is no poll you can quote....even Rightwing ones like Fox News and Rasmussen....that are "good" for Trump. So you'll dismiss ALL of them...and start talking "crowd sizes"....won't you?
I think the national polls will tighten up some over the next month. State-polls will continue to show Clinton strong and trump the racist not able to garner any real votes outside the uneducated angry white male vote. He simply has zero appeal and is branded as a hate-mongering, racist idiot. I find it amusing that he thinks he can pivot now and pretend he's normal and not a racist moron...ain't gonna happen. The bigger issue for trump is going to be come Labor Day when his numbers haven't radically pulled up. The RNC is going to either pull back or altogether stop helping him with ground game...and that's going to ensure his loss. trump the racist has almost zero logistics for get out the vote efforts or for getting voters to the polls. They did an article yesterday about one of his campaign offices in Colorado being run by a nutty 12-year old (same kid that made threatening phone calls to RNC members). Add in that trump the racist has now starting stealing money from his cultists to line his own pockets rather than to make ad buys...and you've got a recipe for Democratic fun! Meanwhile, Clinton is spending the rest of summer vacation doing all the right thing for this time in the campaign...namely raising money. For the next 10 days, she's got fund-raiser after fund-raiser with various big donors and celebrities. She's getting ready to make sure the last stretch of this campaign is well funded for both ad buys and campaign offices. trump the racist and his racist staff are simple incompetents all around. In a month, he'll probably have another round of firings... Clinton knows she doesn't have to win with huge numbers....although that will probably happen....she just has to beat the orange kkklown. And she's well on her way to getting that done. I can't decide whether it will be funnier for Clinton to win by a ton...or just to beat trump the racist by enough that his cultists are infuriated by his incompetent campaign. Either way, no doubt election night is gonna be a good time!
A 6-point race that translates to about 350 EV for Clinton sounds about right. More evidence that Hillary seems to be solidifying her lead.
It's going to be far more than +6. Clinton just came in today at +16 in Virginia and +14 in Florida. That must point to a national average over +10, because both of those states have historically posted margins to the RIGHT of a DEM national winning margin. I will also note that not since 1964 have we seen margins for a Democrat of such landslide proportions in these two states. Alone, this data is somewhat historic.
That is not the partisan self-identification within this poll, which has an ENORMOUS survey group and a very, very small MoE. Are numbers difficult for you?
Just today: Florida Clinton +14, Virginia Clinton +19, Missouri Trump +1, Utah Trump +14..... a rising tide lifts all winning boats....
Numbers coming from private corp are irrelevant. Is the concept of "only opinion of one who counts the votes matters" is so hard to understand?
