Carrington level event estimated 10 to 15 years

The sun has been in a quiet phase for a while, it even puts out less radiation.

Eventually, things will pick back up, which means more radiation for Earth, possible amplifying warming.

But that's not what a Carrington is. Occasionally the sun roars, and lets off an EMP pulse that could fry most electrical things. Your phone, computer, car, and other stuff would simply stop working.

"An event of that size or larger could blow out transformers, essential parts of the electrical grid, leaving many without power. Depending exactly where the storm hits hardest, how well the grid is protected against flares and how many spare transformers are readily available, the power outage could last from 16 days to a couple of years and the cost to the U.S. alone could amount to $0.6 – $2.6 trillion."

But you would have to replace a lot. Doesn't help that China is heavily dependent on high tech, manufacturing would also be disrupted, for an unknown length of time. What if your bank records disappear? There's a thousand questions like that, and not many answers.



https://astrobites.org/2020/05/08/a...d-changing-disaster-another-carrington-event/

 

Out of our control. No point in even thinking about it.

 

A Carrington Event is out of our control, but there are steps that we could take to prepare so when (not if) it happens again, we can ride it out.

 

Exactly what I have been saying about climate change. Instead of going crazy trying to control climate, we should be adapting to it.

 

Link?

It may not take a "Carrington" 1859 event depending on the characteristics of a geomagnetic reversal.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geomagnetic_reversal

There is a reasonable and maybe even probable chance that as the poles flip, large previously protected EMF radiation will pour down on the Earth.

ps

Space, by James Michener.

It has a climax that is associated with a solar flare event - it's devastating.

When I read it, I almost felt like I was blown out into the cold dark vacuum from the dark side of the moon.

 

NOBODY knowledgeable about climate change believes that there is a choice to be made between "control" and "adapt".

Absolutely everyone who knows the science knows we need to reduce the total impact as well as adapt to the change that is currently taking place because of our failure to reduce this problem.

 

I understand. You want to control the climate. I hope you are able to succeed at it.

 

That "control the climate" nonsense is the catch phrase of the clueless. Nobody thinks the climate can be coroled.

You should pick another catch phrase as you're embarrassing yourself.

 

Strange. I don't feel embarrassed.

 

They have warned about these storms before and they had almost zero impact.

 

Are you suggesting we should ignore these warnings?

 

Just saying the problem ones in the past didn't turn into a problem. There was some super solar event some years back that simply came and went.

 

While those events were the same TYPE of event, they are not the same magnitude as was that actual Carrington event.

That event did do significant damage. It knocked out telegraph throughout much of the US and UK even though that system amounted to little more than extension cords strung across the landscape. That was in the 1800s. Today, our power and communication grids are controlled by semiconductor control ware, include satellites. It includes transformers in our nation's neighborhoods - and they could be blown out, etc. We don't have the capacity for building that kind of stuff very rapidly, because it's simply not required. We don't need millions of transformers every year, for example.

A Carrington level event is projected to leave cities without power and communications for weeks to a year. That means no communications, no power in hospitals, no internet, no cash machines, banks that can't query what's in your account, grocery stores that can't order, water systems that can't pump and can't purify water, septic infrastructure with no pumps.

Yes, we missed a smaller one some time back by several days - so, the ejection simply passed by Earth. A swing and a miss - thank god.

This link includes an assessment by Lloyds of London:

https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2020/08/carrington-event-warning/

 

As I said, the other ones were projected to have an impact also and they didn't. I don't think the magnitude matters much. Whatever our system are they seem to have no issue dealing with it. Kind of like lightning hitting a plane, it doesn't matter how much energy is in the bolt it will still pass through the plane with no effect.

 

That's not a representation of the risk AT ALL.

Other coronal mass ejections are not the size of the Carrington event.

What you're saying is like suggesting that a small hurricane didn't do much damage, so we should ignore the possibility of a large hurricane.

And by the way, even with engineering protection, airplanes are not safe from lightning - not that it has ANYTHING to do with a coronal mass ejection:

 

Great, more worries to fret over, I've decided I will not be participating in caring anymore. As if I dont have enough stress as things are.

 

This isn't that hard.

We need improvements in our electric distibution grid for a number of reasons - not the least of which is that it isn't adequate today and needs fixing regardless of how we create electricity. For one thing, Americans like electricity - a LOT! We have lights, refrigerators air conditioners, wide screen TV, gigantic data farms for saving our selfies and grand kid pics, etc., etc.

The only part of that worrying me is that our leadership sits on its collective asses and doesn't improve our electric grid.

When our roads are overworked, we don't get all worried - we just tell our leadership to fix the f'ing problem. That's all that's needed here, too.

 

We need no leftism in control of lt. Continue fracking

 

"Leftism" isn't a thing that controls anything.

And at least to me the issue is how much we choose to support fracking with our tax dollars.

How much of our taxes should we be giving corporations to frack?

I do believe that fracking companies must be FULLY responsible for any damage they do to our environment - such as ground water, etc.

 

Back on the subject of Carrington level events, let's remember that has NOTHING to do with climate.

In fact, our electric disribution network is insufficient for today's needs even if you choose to ignore Carrington events, climate, clean energy, or projected growth in demand.

The real point is that we need to improve that infrastructure, and when we do we need to be smart about it.

 

That might well be true for average strikes but some powerful hits cause damage. I've seen a small hole from a lightning strike in the leading edge of one wing of a military cargo jet among those that I worked on, and another had a small hole in the tail.

Many years ago there was an article in a magazine about a 747 that was destroyed in about 19 seconds by lightning that penetrated the fuel tank in the outer left wing. When burning fuel exploded, breaking off the outer section of the wing, the unbalanced drag caused a yaw to the right due to the extra length of the right wing. The yaw caused the big flame of burning fuel at the broken end of the left wing to line up with the tail, cutting it off like a blow torch. The scenario was analyzed from the black box data and wreckage.

 

Yes but that's rare. Planes are designed to take lighting hits.

 

Yes - we reduced the risk by putting a MAJOR amount of work into making our planes safer to fly and by restricting where they fly. For another example, we take care to strongly fasten wings to our airplanes. Yet there are several types of weather phenomena that are happening quite frequently that a passenter plane would not survive, because the plan would break. Air traffic control vectors airplanes areount thunder clouds of specific dimensions, for example. And, it's not just for passenger comfort.

So, instead of using these examples as reasons why we don't have to care, let's remember that we DO have to CARE and we put a LOT of work into that caring.

If an actual Carrington sized event were to strike, America would be in SERIOUS trouble.

I'm not ready to reccomend a specific investment to reduce this risk or facilitate recovery, but brushing it off as something we don't have to care about is simply BS.

 

I'm just saying I've been through enough events that were predicted to have an impact and never did.

Maybe it will but maybe it won't.

Not going to worry about it.

 

I need to remember to buy some spare solenoids for my old truck and bury them.