It’s Time to End Magical Thinking About Russia’s Defeat

So what the hell makes you think he will take all of Ukraine then? Russia is in no position to take anything more. Even if Ukraine had no standing army, the partisan attacks would be a nightmare for them for generations. Holding where there are a ton of ethnic Russians is one thing, taking all of the Ukraine is completely different. Now is the time for diplomacy.

 

Again, whatever Russia's goal was at day one of the war, they are not in a position (yet) to take the entire country. But I don't think Ukraine is ever going to be in a position to push the Russians out of their territory. You've been one of those "victory is right around the corner" guys since the first weeks of the war, and we are no where where you thought we would be. Get a prediction right once in a while and maybe you'll have some credibility, but from where I sit you've gotten everything wrong.

 

Wars are 10% fighting 90% logistics and whether we are actually doing the fighting or simply supplying, wars are a test of any countries ability to handle the logistics, and that test can and is exposing where our weaknesses and shortages are.

I think you and I are on the same page there.

The difference is you look at those weaknesses and shortages and see no ability to fix or strengthen them, whereas I see it as a godsend that we are able to realize where we are deficient and have the time and ability to fix them all while not putting our own troops in harms way.

Far worse if we went your way, never exposed ourselves, and suddenly found ourselves in a major war and had no idea we couldn’t sustain it for XYZ reasons.

At the end of the day Russia is a threat to world peace and stability, not to mention humanitarianism, their failure or at least huge concessions coupled with their deterioration in weapons, manpower, training and leadership is a good thing. To be able to check them and check ourselves at the same time is a good thing.

I see no positive outcome by withdrawal as you seem to want

 

Uhh...Mike....I wasn't one of those "victory is around the corner" guys from day 1.....I mentioned it's gonna be a tough grind...and it was....Western weapons have been proven against RuZZian "wonder weapons".

Numerous predictions I've made turned out to be right...Mike....never said I had a perfect record.

From where you sit?....I think you just have a hard time dealing with anyone who even mildly disagrees with you.

 

The fact that an attacking force the size of the Russian Army couldn't take Kiev, has been entirely pushed out of the north, and is in a stalemate with a much smaller force in the SE isn't a great predictor for Russian success. While on paper Russia has a large reserve, I seriously doubt much of that equipment is even operational.

The internal fighting with the Wagner group, the lack of C&C at the local level, the state of their equipment, the morale/drug use of their troops are not good indicators either.

If Ukraine is able to keep the morale up and maintain the number and effectiveness of HIMARS on Russian supply lines a stalemate could very well lead to a diplomatic solution.

Ukraine doesn't necessarily need to advance from where they are, they just need to keep Russia from advancing.

 

Why don't you use the article you didn't read to point out specifically where your argument is so I can wreck it for you.

I actually read it. It's garbage nonsense.

Be specific instead of reading a headline, linking it, and saying "See, I told you".

That's not an argument.

 

Well to be clear, withdrawal's positive outcomes are limited. Stopping the waste, stopping money loss, and slowing the killing are important things, but there are other things that are more important. It's simply that the war can't be won, no matter how much money we spend on being an arsenal of oligarchy.

You may think that it's worth it to spend hundreds of millions and sacrifice hundreds of thousands of lives to show the gaps in our supply chain, but at the end of the day the war is still lost and the geopolitical facts on the ground will be the same if we never interfered.

I don't see that as a victory.

 

I can deal with someone who disagrees with me wildly, as long as they make a compelling case, but with you that's simply not the issue. This has always been a tribal war to you that US military support was simply an aid in your tribal battles. And of course you absolutely never predicted that it was going to be a "tough grind."

 

Well I do agree with you that this ends with some sort of diplomatic solution. Where I disagree is that Ukraine "doesn't necessarily need to advance from where they are, they just need to keep Russia from advancing." Russia doesn't need to advance. They can settle in and keep what they have, which is a Ukrainian loss.

 

what was it you disagreed with exactly

 

Well...Mike...I've usually stated my position...and made it clear. What don't you understand?


I've stated this a couple of times over the course of this "fiasco" where it'll be tough....Mike.

This isn't a "tribal war" Mike.

 

It's not tribal war for the US, but I would say it is for you.

 

“Can’t be won” is an absolute that includes all possible variables including strategy, morale, politics, and even luck.

Any serious look at history would mean that someone does not use such a term “can’t be won” lightly. Yet, you seem to not require much to use it.

For example, is Russia so hellbent on war that Putins death would change nothing? How do you know who his successor will be and what their attitude and effectiveness will be on the war?

Simply put: you don’t. Outright making your absolutist outlook on the war an unconvincing one just from this one glaringly obvious logical flaw.

Given the worlds disposition to the war it’s very likely its outcome may very well be predicated at this point on whether Putin can outlast the Wests patience and flakiness, or the West/Ukraine will outlast however long Putin has to live.

But that’s the thing about war, situations can change quite quickly. Things are at the moment hanging in the balance but that’s not the time to choose to run away. Goodness knows the Ukrainians haven’t. Why therefore should any of us?

 

Most of that area was already under Russian control and any diplomatic solution will probably result in their loss anyway.

 

Putin just turned 70 and seems to be in good health. I wouldn't hang my hopes on his dying. What you fail to consider is that, were Putin to die, his successor would likely take a more hard-line approach to Ukraine, which would only hasten its demise.

Bottom line: Ukraine is a dead man walking.

 

That's the very subject line of this post, "magical thinking."

You may continue to do that, but your idea is simply "something" may happen. Yeah I guess something could happen. I just don't think it's likely, based on everything we've seen for the past two years, that there is going to be a magical turnaround, whether Putin dies tomorrow or 5 years from now.

 

Heh, well that's what the war is about huh?

 

Where did I say it was a "tribal war"?

 

“Seems” in good health based on him having constant health issues? Isn’t that the opposite indicator of good health?

The Ukrainians don’t seem aware that they’re dead. I would think they would know their status a lot better than you

 

Magic thinking is something you’ve personally coined so I can hardly define it, but I would think absolutist ideas on war would be much more conducive to the term than reasoning and acknowledgement that you can never predict a wars outcome.

 

You didn't. I identified it for you.

 

I didn't coin the term. That's from the article.

As for predicting the war's outcome, it really depends on where you are. In 1939 you could say it's a coin flip, but by 1945 it's safe to call it.

With Ukraine, I think we're a lot closer to 1945 than 1939.

 

You can crunch the numbers yourself. But in brief?

Before the invasion in 2022 Russia occupied aprox 16,000 square or aprox 6.5% of Ukrainian territory i.e. Crimea and most of Donesk and Luhansk Oblasts. In the month following the invasion it managed (briefly) to increase that to about 25% of the country. Today after almost two year of fighting? They occupy about 16% of Ukraine - and falling (albeit slowly). The key point however? You have to remember that includes the 6.5% of the country they have held since 2014, before the current war began! In reality? To date, after 21 months of fighting? Putin has managed to seize less than 10% of Ukraine. 10 f'ing percent!

And the cost to date? More than 13000 armored and combat support vehicles of all types, almost 550 combat aircraft, 16 naval vessels and up to almost 300,000 casualties including somewhere between 50,000 and 100,000 deaths. Then there's the sanctions, lost trade opportunities and long term economic damage. The billions in seized foreign exchange, the huge loss in international standing, a leader who can't leave the country for fear of begin charged with war crimes??? The list goes on. So sure, Putin can declare 'victory' whenever he want's. But left me ask you one question.

If it was the US that had invaded Ukraine and had achieved exactly the same results Putin has for the same cost? Would you be calling it a 'victory'? And if so why?

 

Russia didn't "occupy" those territories prior to the war. Crimea being the exception to that; at this point Crimea is Russia. But I don't even need to argue with you. If there are no talks and the war continues, will Russia control less territory than it does now?

My prediction is no. I've been posting on this topic long enough to know that no matter what, the slava ukraini side think Ukrainian victory is right around the corner. So far, I've been more right on that than any of the neocons cheering on this war. Anyway let's check back in a year and see where we are.

 

You didn't answer the question.

And a Ukrainian victory? That can be defined very simply as denying Putin his victory. As much as many Ukrainians may want total and complete victory (recovery of all lost territory) that's unlikely ever to happen. But no matter how Putin tries to fame it Ukraine's holding on to or recovering the large majority of its territory while also denying Russia it's other stated war aims and inflicting heavy damage on Russia's armed forces in the process is a huge strategic victory for Ukraine. And history will record it as such.