The Looming Ukraine Debacle

And your source is what for your ludicrous claim?

 

Even if you label the Maidan revolt as illegal and claim the CIA coordinated this, of course there have been elections in the aftermath.

 

I think its a matter of time until he attacks a NATO state, if Western Europe and the US proceed as in the first two years of the war.

1. His military budgets and spendings for the military, plus the man power he puts into his military and the losses he is willing to accept almost burn the bridges to go back to a peace economy. Russia will recruit in the next upcoming years 200 K new soldiers per year, until it touches the maximum number. The limits are defined by the workforce needed for the other sectors of his war economy. Two years from now his army will reach a number of 1,5 million soldiers despite the casualties in the Ukraine.

2. Yes, you are right, that the West could hypothetically still completely outnumber Russia and outproduce it beyond limits. The combined production potential of an anti-Putin alliance of the rest of Europe and the US is 25-30 more powerful when it comes to production capacities. But will they invest just a small amount of their force to stop Russia, thats the decisive question. Right now I see the US not willing to do so, Germany as a a rabbit caught in the headlights shaking and looking to what the US does. Turkeys position unclear in that situation, a lot of Western European countries not decisive in their efforts against Russia.

3. I think you underestimate the factor war experience as a big plus for the Russian army and the ability to learn from mistakes. Again, you are right that the Russian army performed abysmal at the beginning of the Ukraine war, but despite all incompetence in the first year of the war, they will learn from their mistakes.

To conclude, if the West continues like that I see a Russian army with far superior numbers and experience going against a limited number of states which will fight with technologically advanced weapons against Russia. Its of course extremely risky for Russia, I doubt that it can afford the war or even in case of limited success their new empire in the long run, but I doubt they see it like I do and come to the same conclusions. Putin's plans for his army and his transition into an all out war economy say otherwise. Even the limited efforts of the US and Western Europe has the potential to break Russia's neck, Turkey is a huge risk in the South, but Putin seems to ignore that and seem to think that e.g. Germany will in doubt not have the guts to bring in its production capabilities against Russia.

 

And many of those in the east weren't allowed to vote in those 'elections'

And now there aren't any elections at all

NEXT

 

All good then NATO can kick RUSSIAs ass

 

Thinking most of the fighting age Azov Nazis have been turned into Ukrainian Sausage -- the one Azov Battalion left is refusing to fight .. That said .. still have a presence in Gov't .. The Azov SS .. press gangs going around forcing folks into service .. not much left to force no more it seems simply running out of human capital .. and what is left don't want to fight... be fed into the meat grinder .. on a mission that has no hope of success .. a pawn in one of Genocide Joe's latest Proxy Shows .. the next in a long line of "JV-Teams" to be abandoned on to the field .. the US just getting up and leaving the JV-team in the lurch .. hell .. happened something like 6 times over the many decades to the Kurds alone.. and the last JV-Team .. the Islamic State .. things didn't work out so well for them in the end.

can you believe that -- Artillery team hasn't had a shell in 4 weeks .. and infantry is then going to show up to the front line and do what .. ?? no artillery support .. no air support .. the other team eyes in the skies with drones watching every move and targeting artillery to position .. 10,000 shells a day is a slow day .. and add to that the FAB 3000's coming down ..

The commanders ordering troops to such certain death should face criminal trial when this war done ..

 

I think Ukraine is doomed because of its corruption.

 

Hopes and dreams for the moment Dayton .. cause right now its Russia and the Houthi's kicking NATO azz --- big time spanky . and don't forget Iran now joined the party .. gave Israel a little taste .. Don't leave those Canaanites up north out either -- last time didn't go so well against the Canaanites up north ... 2006 they kicked the IDF out .. now Bulla much stronger .. Bibi better be wary ..

OH sure .. they doing a good job of Kicking Palestinian Azz .. big tough guys .. laying it to the Gaza Concentration Camp ... exterminating 14,000 babies .. big time war crime - crime against humanity ... a proud Nato achievement .. Was thinking of the Irony .. Germany standing in strong support of Holocaust number 2 .. .. you can't write a better script ..

 

Was an easy mark for the Fascist Neocon Oligarchs .. whispering in Genocide Joe's ear .. The next JV-Team we gonna use to poke poke Da Bear !

 

Who do you mean who wasnt allowed to vote? The separatists that were equipped by Putin to destroy the Ukraine?

 

Why do you keep calling Joe Biden " 'genocide Joe"? ? I loathe Joe Biden but I never condemn him that way.

incidentally you do know that for a mass killing to be "genocide" is has to be "deliberate""?

 

Zoomer .. Even if French Troops were rolling in .. not gonna make a difference .. but, we need not worry because is still a distant dream to begin with .. Nato told Macron to Stand Down .. then got a good tongue lashing from Putinski ..

Dude -- the Ukraine artillery guy just off the front line hadn't had a shell to fire in 4 weeks .. "Grim Warnings" coming out of the US intelligence department.

The situation is Grim Zoomie -- and there is no Knight Macron gonna be riding in on a White Stallion to save the Day .. the meat grinder is the only way at the moment .. and its producing Ukrainian Sausage .. even the West .. and the US intelligence agencies admitting this truth ... and the same coming out of the mouths of the Ukrainian soldiers with which our Politico Reporter was embedded .

The situation is worse than Grim -- Grim is the downplayed analysis of the Pro Ukrainian US intelligence agency .. the reality is far worse . .. hopelessly lost is a better descriptive adjective ... no French Knight in Shining armor .. coming to the rescue of Zelensky and Genocide Joe .. nor Nato .

 

What's a "Z-Shill" Durandal ? and why are you calling me dishonest .. when time after time .. strike after strike --- you been the one on the wrong side of the Truth .. your information from sources ridiculously biased beyond belief .. pointed out to you on so many occasions .. you claiming nothing to see here "no propagandas in the West - media - political Pundits - " how could you not notice .. this guy is wrong all the time ... lest you had not access to the Truth .. but you do ..have access to the Truth .. just given to you .. the US intelligence Agency -- The situation Grim they say .. not the happy comedian .. Ha ha ha .. of your silly fellow .. and I seen this fellow .. is very funny .. but his comedy is not reality D..

 

That accounts possibly on the other side of the pond....that's why....it should be the morning shift soon.

 

Yes Dayton .. the killing was deliberate .. for which Genocide Joe earned a complicit in war crimes - crimes against Humanity for his efforts in Yemen .. working hand in hand with Al Qaeda and Brother El Saud .. but Yemen is not where he earned his "Genocide Tag" That was his proxy war in Syria again arm in arm with Al Qaeda and Brother El Saud -- eventually including a 30 nation strong coalition.. to arm, support, and supply a Genocide .. 500,000 civilians dead ... not all part of the Genocide but all on Biden's head .. Team Biden-Obama in this case.

You know Rotten Ronnie had a brush with Genocide as well ... supporting our buddy Saddam to beat up on poor Iran .. our whipping boy in the ME .. Now there was a proper Chemical weapon attack . as opposed to the false flag attacks in Syria .. but that is another story. When the "Prevention of Genocide act" came across ol Ronnie's desk .. after rapidly passing the house .. Old Ronnie stepped in to defend is buddy Saddam .. threatened Veto .. and so died in the Senate .. but that was small potatoes compared to Genocide Joe .. oh .. no .. hold on .. take that back .. forgot about the East Timor Genocide .. that was a big one 1/3 of the entire population of East Timor .. and how many in Central America .. yeah .. I guess Rotten Ronnie gives Genocide Joe a run for the money.

 

I am always surprised how little people know.

The Russian Army, the ground army is basically destroyed to the point,were it depends on the old soviet stuff it has in storage.
Russian was deindustrialized after the cold war, by it on government, including Putin, its a gasstation and nothing more. It does not have the industrial capacity for a prolonged war.
Putin miscalculated everything about Germany and former Kanzler Schroeder might have been the cause for it, his dear friend.
The German military industry is at a all time high and is extending capacities in record time. Who would have thought that the unwanted, are now the dear wanted, in Germany. Who would have thought, that Germany would just snap of its energy needs from Russia? Take the brunt and find new deals.

Putin in his bubble was unable to foresee what capitalism can do. He is still in that bubble, which he created and that will doom him and Russia.

This war has been from day one a serious miscalculation by Putin, his advisors and his military and it continues.

 

1) You do know I(I hope) that "genocide" has little to do with the number killed.

2) You love to whine about the killings in central America but you ignore the major role the Reagan admind. played in limiting and then ending those killings

 

Victoria Nuland (cookie monster) was the point man for starting the war
in Ukraine, with the approval of Joe Biden in 2014, the phone call is even
in the public domain.

 

So what if the number has little to do with Genocide .. the fact that you have a high number in the genocide does not make it less of a Genocide ? and where are you getting this silly notion that Reagan had some major role in limiting and ending that genocide when the reverse is true. .. Reagan .. against Congress which had forbidden support and arming of the Death Squad Dictator Terror Troops we had trained .. went behind the back of congress to fund the Genocide .. do you not remember the Contra affair .. Old Ronnie was in big trouble over the dirty deeds in Central America .. Olli North took the fall.

Surly you must remember Olli North Dayton .. and Dirty Daddy Bush .. Guns going out cocaine coming in ..

 

LOL....caught you again...."even if French troops rolling in"....you're leaving the door open, rightly so.

Where did NATO tell Mac to stand down?

Where was the tongue lashing from Pootler....apart from Shoigu calling up Frech Sec Def Lecornu and calling him weird names unbeknownst to zoology?....even accusing France of having a hand in the Crocus hall disaster.....gifty?....gifty?

Mafiosi is crapping razor blades thinking about French troops.....considering that's a nuclear power. Is it your morning shift yet?

 

of course leaving the door open .. Macron wanted to send .. Nato said No .. go do some homework on what you say for a change .. having to school you on the smallest details .. and the bottom line is French Troops on the way is still a dream -- and if they did show up the would be small in number and quickly slaughtered in the meat grinder .. we would have a Ukrainian French Blend Sausage for a limited time ..

How many troops did you think France has to send Zoomie go find out and we can then have a chuckle...

 

You do remember that the Mena Arkansas Airport (just north of my parents home) was a key transport node from the U.S. to Central America. They made a movie about it a few years ago.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Made_(film)

 

Russia's military is totally incompetent. All the economic considerations, all the production capabilities, all the recruiting successes, cannot make up for the idiocy of tactical leaders who open a war by lining up hundreds of tanks and armored vehicles bumper to bumper then sit and wait to get destroyed... and get destroyed. A Plebe at West Point knows that when yo travel in "column", you disperse into a "line" formation at firts contact. The Russian idiot leaders just sat and got killed.
Bombing your own territory and shooting down your own aircraft are not indicative of inexperience, they are indicative of total incompetence. And when a country without a Navy causes your large Navy to take significant casualties, its time to go home. When you have an air force and your enemy doesn't, and you cannot establish air superiority, its time for your leaders to turn in their uniforms and get jobs slinging burgers or selling shoes.

Economics, etc., notwithstanding, the Russian military sucks. Throwing more tanks, more aircraft and more PEOPLE into a meat grinder won't help them win.-

Experience is definitely important. But it must be gained in an organized fashion which maximizes the benefits of "lessons learned". During WWII the US Army Air forces noticed that if crews made it through 25 (?) missions, they probably would survive the war. As a result, after WWII we established a simulation training system which would provide this experience before the crews actually saw combat. This is how "TOP Gun" started for the Navy and "Red Flag" started for the Air Force. Flying real missions against a real enemy using high tech simulations gave the crews the experience to survive before ever seeing real combat. The Army soon followed suit by establishing the National Training Center at Ft Irwin, CA where US Army units coulds rotate through realistic scenarios against an enemy that spoke Russian, used Russian tactics and equipment nad engaged in force-on-force combat using high tech laser simulates to replicate the letahlity and vulnerability of actual weapons. The Marines joined in with a similar fracilty at Twenty Nine Palms in the California Desert. NATO forces train that way now at the US Army facility at Hohenfels in Germany.

And its not just running exercises. A learning tool called the After Action Review has Soldiers review their own actions, thinking for themselves about what actions worked and what actions failed. Note my s/n: AARguy). The seemingly endless tactical failures of the Russian Army demonstrate clearly that they came to Ukraine unprepared. They have since learned how to lose and die. I doubt that the Russian leaders who have proven to be so incompetent have thought out how to learn from their mistakes. AAR is an art. Getting Soldiers to think for themselves, understand their successes and failures, is not an easy task. And that's just the beginning. As Bismarck once said, "Smart Soldiers learn from their mistakes. Brilliant Soldiers learn from the mistakes of others."

I remember my first TES (Tactical Engagement Simulation) exercise. A young Soldier was sitting there as the AAR started with his helmet off, an indicator that he had been "killed". The AAR leader asked him how he had "died". He said that his buddy had been "hit' and he went over to help him. Then he got "shot" himself. So the instructor asked him, "What did you learn?" The young Soldier said, "I never realized that a bad guy had a bead on that spot and so he got me too".

Economics and production rates back home help. But wars are won and lost by the skills of Soldiers and their leaders.

 

I am always surprised how little people know too, especially about the stuff they are commenting about.

1. Russia is right now producing about 3 million artillery shells a year, outnumbering all NATO states combined. The production of tanks is estimated by Western secret services at about 100 per months, so about 1,2 K a year. Get a reality check here with your "Russia doesnt have the capacities for a prolonged war", right now its easily outproducing the West. Its not de-industrialized, what it achieved since 1999 when it comes to industrialization is not very impressive, especially not diversified, its all focused on the industrial-military complex since the late 2000s/ early 2010s. The overwhelming numbers are achieved by a war economy which puts its only effort on the military and yes, if you are speaking in terms of decades, I think it will lead to collapse at some point if it keeps that way, but you are yourself in a world of illusions, if you believe that Russia can just use the left-overs from the Soviet era and when they run out, this would be over soon. What they did indeed mess up seems to be the scale up and the production lines of their best prototypes and they wont propably have a chance to correct this due to shortage of chips and other devices they would need to import. So there wont be T-90 and T-14 or their other technological stuff which would be up to date, Russian production will propably be a meet and greet with the 60ies and 70ies. Although all of that isnt very impressive you completely underestimate what they are able to bring to the replacement of all the tanks they wasted.

2. As you take Germany as a counterpart, your statement that German military industry is at an all time high is the joke of the year already in April. In fact its not a shadow of its former self in the Cold War era and SLOWLY Germany makes a turn around to be able to produce military equipment and ammunition in numbers and at an acceptable rate again to face the threat. As far as I heard Rheinmetall e.g. is planning to extend its production of artillery shells to over 1 million in the next 2-3 years, but when it comes to Germany it is - as propably in other EU states as well - also a question of political determination and willingness to stop Russia. Right now we have a pro-Russian chancellor who only reacts to pressure by his own coalition, the press and the foreign allies with the support of the Ukraine, his party is romanticizing the old Cold War era when it made deals with the Soviet Union and I doubt they can get over it.

To conclude, Germany's military-industrial complex is a shadow of its former self, if and how quick that will change future will show. Tbh taking into account that this war is now over two years old, I am not impressed by the speed of getting back on track, although slowly but surely its heading into the right direction. How Germany will react when the Russian attack on Latvia is coming is unclear-

3. I consider all of this war effort by Putin to be a mistake, but we should face reality that he is not thinking he doesnt evaluate "mistake" in the same manner as we do. For him extending his territory is a value of its own and he doesnt care if his country is turning into a North Corean shithole in the process. If you read my comment carefully, I even count in a possible scenario in which Russia completely collapses, maybe even falls apart, as one possibility. Digging in the nose and just relying on that hypothetical scenario may nevertheless not be the best strategy to counter Putin's aggression.

In the very long run I think Russia will be doomed with its aggressive and hazardous strategy, but the question is how much damage it will have done before that day comes. If Western support for the Ukraine doesnt continue and maybe even is extended, his first stage, taking the Ukraine is a matter of time.

 

I agree with a lot in your comment and it was interesting to read some of the insights, but we disagree in 2 decisive points:

1. You disqualify Russians to learn by their mistakes as an axiom and I dont see a basis for it. Yes, the performance of the Russian army was pathetic especially in the beginning of that war. Corruption, incompetent commaders, the convoy you mentioned in the beginning was a joke. However, I think there is an evolution of war in a long war and Russia will reform its military to get better and replace corrupt and rotten structures in the years to come. I mean e.g. in WWII the Winter War against Finland was also an absolute desaster.

There is e.g. progress in the application of drones by Russia and after all I am convinced the experiences in the Ukraine war will be a an asset when it comes to the attack on e.g. Latvia.

2. I disagree with the complete neglection of the meaning of quantities. I mean even with superior tactics you need ammunition and we see right now in the Ukraine what can happen if you run low on ammo.Ukrainians have to withdraw at some point.

Only one point is hopefully irreversible they obviously messed up when it was about taking their best prototypes of the equipment to serial production and propably they will be unable to do so within the war and under sanctions. They will overwhelmingly produce Cold War era equipment propably in the coming years.


I mean, Russia could be stopped either way, no matter of the significance of the firepower you can bring into the battlefield. But it takes a reaction at some point and its easy to imagine that Putin could see the reluctant support of the Ukraine as an invitation in the sense that nobody in the West will have the determination to stop him.