2020 D and R presidential primaries - ongoing analysis to 2016/2012/2008

As of NOW, I see Trump's Best Case at 260.

At a minimum, I see Biden holding the Entire Clinton Map (and adding MI, WI, and PA).

Also FL, NC, and AZ, and NE-2 are now In-Play.

Biden could run up the score and you could see Biden Winning 333-205.

^That is (essentially) the BASE Point, from where things stand now.

 

So, the post-mortem for Oklahoma is ready.



Oklahoma, a great state, is a state that in 2 of 4 primary cycles, in in both parties, selected the candidate who did not go on to be the respective party's nominee. On the R-side, in both 2012 and 2016 and on the D-side, in 2008 and presumably, in 2020. In other words, Oklahoma is not a primary season bellwether state.

On the Democratic side, it's been landslide margins of +10 or more for four cycles in a row.
On the Republican side, it's been 3 single-digit margin wins and then a blowout, since the current president is running unopposed.
The highest raw vote getter on the R-side in OK primary history is indeed President Trump in 2020, with 273,562 votes, but (yepp, once again) the highest raw vote getter on both the D-side and for both parties in OK primary history is Bill Clinton from 1992, with 293,266 votes. The 2nd highest vote-getter on the R side is: Bob Dole in 1996 (156,829 votes).

Here the county maps, per cycle:

2020:



Joe Biden swept every county in 2020. So did Trump (but no map is available)

2016:



In 2016, Hillary Clinton won every county but two. On the R-side, Ted Cruz won the lion's share of counties, Trump won 15 and Rubio won 2.

2012:



For the Republicans, similar three way story in 2012: Rick Santorum won the lion's share of counties, Newt Gingrich won 11 and Mitt Romney won 2.

2008, a banner-year:



The red map above is the Democratic race. Clinton won every county but one.




The map above is the Republican race: McCain won more than half of all counties, Huckabee won less than half and in two counties, it was a perfect tie. Interesting to see is the East-West divide in this state, probably because the Eastern counties are closer to the border to Huckabee's home state of Arkansas.

The overall state totals:



On the General Election level, Oklahoma has been a reliable R-state since 1968, for 13 presidential cycles in a row. Only in 1976 was the state hotly contested between Southern Democrat Carter and incumbent non-elected President Ford (Ford won by +1.2 points). Since 2004, for 4 presidential cycles in an row, Oklahoma has been won by the Republican nominee by +30 or more, regardless of who won the White House, which means that within the range of R+25 to R+35 the state is pretty much immune to the tides going through the nation. That being said, margin shifts matter. Were 2020 polling to show Trump barely winning in Oklahoma, then that would be a sign of an impending national loss (a rising tide raises or sinks all boats, nöööö). Then again, were polling to show Trump winning Oklahoma by +50 to +60, that would probably be a sign of an impending Republican landslide.

So, as always, when I look at "safe" states, I always look at polling margins to see if anything is different from the cycle before.

Oklahoma was once a state with a large majority of registered Democrats, who then faithfully voted Republican in presidential cycles. That is a phenomenon that we have seen often through most of the so-called "Bible Belt" (WV, KY, TN, AR, MO, OK). These days, those people have shifted their party affiliation to Republican, but even in the days of Democratic majority, they were very Conservative Democrats, known at the time as Conservocrats. And as has often been the case in those case, a Democratic Family-Dynasty name often kept people in the Democratic Party although their hearts were somewhere else. In Oklahoma, one such family was the Boren family.

When it comes to national service and giving, Oklahomans are pretty much second to none. When called to serve their land, Okies come out in droves.

-Stat

 

Trump has 95% chance of being the Republican nominee for 2020
The 5% that could possibly upset that result:
2% chance of death from virus
1% death by Nancy Pelosi or other TDS Democrat poisoning the tea
1% death by overdose of chocolate cake ice cream McD burger causing heart attack
1% death in bed with supermodel wife from overexertion

 

With an artificial halftime upon us it's time to look at the situation.
After all the candidates, all the hoopla, all the debates, talk of money and fundraising we end up with the 2 most famous candidates (famous based on longest political careers and Presidential talk).
Does this surprise anyone?
Did anyone really think House members most of us never heard of 2 years ago (Moulton, Swalwell, Gabbard) might be among the finalists?
Did anyone really think billionaires with no political experience (Yang, Steyer) could be among the finalists, especially depending on commercials alone?
Did anyone really think fully qualified candidates (Hickenlooper. Inslee, Bullock, Patrick) could get far without being in most debates?
Did anyone really think that Bloomberg with his stop and frisk or Buttigieg with his stop and kill policies could win the hearts of southern blacks, or that a Jew or a homosexual could get by with southern rednecks?
Did anyone really think a candidate with no longterm plan for the race (Klobuchar) could get past super Tuesday with a lead?
There were 3 things that could have gone differently.
Biden could have dropped out or been identified as senile.
Sanders could have dropped out or penetrated a new constituency so he took a majority of states on super Tuesday and became uncatchable.
A third candidate might have gotten a few victories early, enough to keep the race suspenseful for many weeks to come.
So none of that happened, and Sanders is where he was 4 years ago, except the superdelegates don't count, so he's 00 behind instead of 700 behind.
1500 delegates remain to be earned. you can't fault Sanders for making Biden earn them.
Of course we're all scared of what might happen. A dreaded virus might infect us suddenly, bringing the country to its doom.
I don't mean the corona virus. I mean something more deadly.

 

So, it's been a while since I've fed this thread, because of a large COVID-19 thread.

I will start posting more election data as was the case up until March 16th.

Today, Ohio is holding the primary elections that were delayed last month due to the COVID-19 lockdown.

Here some links:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P20/OH-D



http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P20/OH-R



Also, there is a special election today to fill the vacancy in MD-07. Although the polls are open, people have been strongly encouraged to vote by mail.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G20/MD#H07_



The expected winners in all three cases are really very clear. Trump, Biden and Mfume.

I assume that in these cases, it will be a while before we get results, which I think is a good thing. I would much rather have accurate results. Our fellow citizens who volunteer to do election work (like, counting absentee ballots while wearing gloves all the time and such) deserve the right to get this stuff done without undue time-stress.

We all have enough stress right now.

 

It looks like Biden clinched. Please note he still is getting percentages as low as 61 the other day in Rhode island. I wish to say nothing here about the general election. Once again both candidates are unacceptable to me so I plan to vote libertarian unless they too go off the edge.
As far as the primaries, we have learned a few lessons I hope.
Iowa is a nuisance. The 2 regional candidates got high numbers for the wrong reasons and complicated everything.
New Hampshire isn't much better, but at least they can spot a sure loser. This year I think they found 2.
Nevada is not the antidote to that pair.
The south is still full of bigots even in the democratic party, but you can't win without them.
Starting late is not a good strategy.
Having a platform is worth something.
California gained nothing by voting early because they eliminated many longshots too soon.
The only good news this year is that small neglected states did well. Delaware finally has a nominee. Vermont keeps getting attention. Add that to Alaska and Hawaii in 2008, Wyoming in 2000, Arkansas in 1992 and you have the right kind of diversity.
I plan to post only in the humor section plus my Senate predictions when all nominees are known.

 

Voting for any third party candidate is just wasting your vote. In case you haven't noticed Dirty Donald has a strange habit of repeating everything he says over and over again within a minute or less,this is one of the early warning signals of Alzheimer's, the disease his father had, which is known to have strong heredity genes.

 

If voting for the top 2 is a mortal sin voting against the top 2 is a sacrament.
I can't predict who will get the most votes in November, but I now see no way to avoid a civil war.

 

Nah.

There will be NO "Civil War".

TRUMP WILL LOSE...

And then, Trump is free to get lost at 8chan.

 

I wonder if you have seen the video of Lindsey Graham saying, "If you cant admire Joe Biden as a person, then you got a problem...you need to do some self-evaluation because whats not to like?"

In regards to the notion on the strength of Biden as a candidate, with the States left on the primary schedule and Biden's current vote totals to date, there is a very good chance that Biden will set a new record for most votes in a Democratic primary.

 

Yes, good chance. The DNC took a couple of cycles to perfect the art of cheating Bernie Sanders. They have it down pat now.

 

Bernie Sanders tried to copy Trump and run an "Us vs them" primary campaign. It worked for Trump because the rest of the RNC refused to coalesce around a single candidate and now you are so stuck with that whiny corrupt liar who is also a ****ing moron that a significant percentage of Republicans think the leading candidates for the 2024, 2028, and 2032 elections should all be someone with the last name of Trump.

It did not work for Bernie.

 

Do you think Lindsey Graham knew about Biden's history of sniffing hair and groping women when he said that? I don't.

 

Voting 3rd party is actually the only way someone in a non swing state can actually effect the result.
The LP getting enough of the popular vote to guarantee ballot access and debate presence in the coming years is essentially the largest change from status quo one can expect.

 

You would be wrong given that Biden's empathy and willingness to engage in private and frank conversations with everyone is a central element of Biden's character, so much so that Lindsey said, "He is as good a man as God ever created. He said some of the most incredibly heartfelt things to me. He is the nicest person that I have ever met in politics."

But do you think Lindsey Graham knew about Trump's willingness to grab women by the ***** without asking when he said, "Trump is a race baiting, xenophobic, religious bigot?" I don't.

One of the funnest aspects of this election cycle, for me, is the fact that literally every single criticism that Trump supporters can lodge against Biden (and there are not many) gets immediately rebounded with a much more damning example against Trump.

 

Graham said that in 2015. The news of Biden being a rapist came out in 2020.

 

A) You feel free to pursue that story further if you want. Her lawyers said no thanks.

B) The news of Trump being a rapist came out in 1989, 1992, 1995, 2007, 2009, and 2016.

Again, one of the funnest aspects of this election cycle, for me, is the fact that literally every single criticism that Trump supporters can lodge against Biden (and there are not many) gets immediately rebounded with a much more damning example against Trump.

 

I think it's fun too, that the Dems picked a candidate that has all the same black marks that they've been claiming (usually falsely) for the last 3.5 years that President Trump has. "Trump sexually harassed women" so you guys pick the one candidate you have with a credible rape accusation. "Trump's mind isn't all there" so you guys pick the candidate suffering from dementia. "Trump tried to use his position for political gain" so you guys pick the guy who lied about his participation in the Flynn investigation. It's very entertaining.

 

And the fact that Trump is objectively and exponentially worse on each one of those issues means that you don't have a single tenable point from which you can attack Biden.

Fun.

 

You're certainly entitled to your opinion, and to continue misusing the word "objectively" if you like.

 

The only thing that matters is that my opinion is objectively shared by more voting Americans than yours.

 

We won't know if you're right or wrong about that for a few more months.

 

Oh we already know it now.

Now, that percentage might change over the next 4 months, but we already know the answer of which person the plurality of America believes is worse on those issues today.

 

I think you'd probably readily agree that "The only thing that matters" is decidedly NOT what people think today, July 8th, right? Today isn't really important, or at least pales in comparison to the importance on the day they cast their ballot.