It's that time again. For the fourth time I make predictions for all 35 Senate races. 2 of them are special elections. One of them is the last of my 2018 predictions, but I changed my mind since I found out the candidates. First let's look at the races. 1. Mississippi Cindy Hyde-Smith versus Mike Espy 2. Kentucky Mitch McConnell versus Amy McGrath 3. Arizona Martha McSally versus Mark Kelly 4. Oklahoma jim Inhofe versus Abby Broyles 5. Kansas Roger Marshall versus Barbara Boiler 6. Wyoming Cynthia Lumnis versus Merav Ben David 7. Maine Susan Collins versus Sara Gideon 8. Alex Jones versus Tommy Tuberville 9. Rhode Island Jack Reed versus Allen Waters 10. Illinois Dick Durbin versus Mark Curran 11. Tennessee Bill Hagerty versus Marquita Bradshaw 12. South Carolina Lindsey Graham versus Jaime Harrison 13. Texas John Cornyn versus MJ Hegar 14. Georgia special Kelly Loeffler 15. New Mexico Ben Ray Lujan (D) versus Mark Ronchetti 16. New Hampshire Jeanne Shaheen versus Corky Messner 17. Virginia Mark Warner versus Daniel Gade 18. Oregon Jeff Merkley versus Jo Rae Perkins 19 Idaho Jim Risch versus Paulette Jordan 20. Minnesota Tina Smith versus Jason Lewis 21. Delaware Chris Coons versus Lauren Witzke 22. Massachusetts Ed Markey versus Kevin O'Connor 23. New Jersey Cory Booker versus Rik Mehta 24 Michigan Gary Peters versus John James 25. North Carolina Tom Tillis versus Cal Cunningham 26. Georgia David Purdue versus Jon Ossoff 27. West Virginia Shelly Moore Capito versus Paula Jean Swearingen 28. Louisiana Bill Cassidy versus Adrian Perkins and others 29. Arkansas Tom Cotton versus Ricky Harrington (L) 30. Nebraska Ben Sasse versus Chris Janicek 31. South Dakota Mike Rounds versus Dan Ahlers 32. Iowa Joni Ernst versus Theresa Greenfield 33. Colorado Cory Gardner versus John Hickenlooper 34. Montana Steve Daines versus Steve Bullock 35. Alaska Dan Sullivan versus Independent Al Gross First let's look at my Predictions of 2014: Jeff Sessions R Alabama wins right but replaced by Doug Jones Democrat Mark Begich D Alaska loses right to Dan Sullivan Mark Pryor D Arkansas wins wrong , lost to Tom Cotton Mark Udall D Colorado wins wrong, lost to Cory Gardner Chris Coons D Delaware wins right Saxby Chambliss R Georgia wins retired, replaced by David Purdue Republican Brian Schatz D Hawaii wins special election, not running this year Jim Risch R Idaho wins right Dick Durbin D Illinois wins right Iowa vacancy goes Republican right Joni Ernst Pat Roberts R Kansas wins right but retiring this year Mitch McConnell R Kentucky wins right Mary Landrieu D Louisiana loses right to Bill Cassidy Republican Susan Collins R Maine wins right Ed Markey D Massachusetts wins right Michigan vacancy goes Democrat right Gary Peters Al Franken D Minnesota loses wrong but replaced by Tina Smith Thad Cochran R Mississippi wins right but replaced by Cindy Hyde-Smith John Walsh D Montana loses Right to Steve Daines Mike Johanns R Nebraska wins retired, replaced by Ben Sasse Republican Jeanne Shaheen D New Hampshire loses wrong Cory Booker D New Jersey wins right Tom Udall D New Mexico wins right, but retiring Kay Hagan D North Carolina loses right to Tom Tillis Jim Inhofe R Oklahoma wins right Oklahoma vacancy goes Republican right, special election not up this year Jeff Merkley D Oregon wins right Jack Reed D Rhode Island wins right Lindsey Graham R South Carolina wins right Tim Scott R South Carolina wins right, special election not up this year South Dakota vacancy goes Republican right Mike Rounds Lamar Alexander R Tennessee wins right but retiring John Cornyn R Texas wins right Mark Warner D Virginia wins right West Virginia vacancy goes Republican. Right Shelley Moore Capito Mike Enzi R Wyoming wins right but retiring So I did very well, not even looking at the names of the opponents. This year I'm carefully considering the opponents, the demographics and the unique situations this year. I make the predictions in the order in which the person who started the term reached the Senate, so there are several quirks along the way, starting with the first one: Mississippi. When possible I group them by party. In this case I start with 7 Republicans, then 3 Democrats, then 4 Republicans, then 4 Democrats, then one lonely Republican, then 5 Democrats and finally 11 more Republicans. That's 23 Republicans and 12 Democrats, almost the same as the Civil War contest. As with 2018 I predict also close or easy. Close is defined as 5% or less. I get one point for each right winner, one point for close or easy and lose one point for each point of deviation from the Senate balance at the end. Number 1: Mississippi: Cindy Hyde-Smith versus Mike Espy I start in the order in which the person who started the term first joined the Senate. That gives several quirks starting with the first one. Thad Cochran won his first term in the Senate in 1978 at age 44 in Mississippi. Back then the blue state was starting to turn purple. By 2014 as he won his seventh term at age 80 it was Republican red. Cochran got sick and retired in 2018, dying a year later. The Governor appointed Cindy Hyde-Smith to replace him. She was born in 1959 and was serving as Commissioner of Commerce and Agriculture. She won a special election later that year against former Clinton cabinet member Mike Espy. This year she's running for a full term against former Clinton cabinet member Mike Espy. Espy is 67 and really is the best the Democrats can do in that state. I think she wins again by roughly the same percentage 8%. PREDICTION: REPUBLICAN CINDY HYDE SMITH BEATS MIKE ESPY EASY
2. Kentucky: Mitch McConnell versus Amy McGrath Kentucky was a blue state for a century, but it wasn't quite as blue as other slave states. When Mitch McConnell won his first term in 1984 it was getting purple. As he won term after term the state turned Republican red, but it's not as red as other slave states so Democrats think they have a chance to make it purple again. The biggest possible step in that direction would be to unseat the GOP Senate majority leader as he seeks his seventh term. They think they have a chance this year with Amy McGrath, a former marine fighter pilot born in 1975. McConnell was born in 1942 so this is the first of many generational battles we'll encounter. McConnell is the most important politician from Kentucky since Henry Clay. I don't think Kentuckians will end his career now. McConnell usually wins by about 10% and I think this will follow the usual pattern. PREDICTION: REPUBLICAN MITCH MCCONNELL BEATS AMY MCGRATH EASY 3. Arizona: Martha McSally versus Mark Kelly In 2016, against my advice, John McCain ran for a sixth Senate term at age 80. He won of course, but soon was diagnosed with cancer. McCain lived just long enough for the special election to replace him to be held in 2020 instead o0f 2018. Meanwhile first term Arizona Senator Jeff Flake decided not to run again, avoiding a certin defeat in either the primary or general election. That resulted in a heated race that was still in doubt the day after the election. Republican Martha McSally conceded defeat on Wednesday. Then John Kyl, a retired Senator appointed to return to the Senate as McCain's replacement, announced his retirement the end of the year. The Governor appointed Mcsally to replace him and she now seeks election to the remaining 2 years of McCain's term. McSally was born in 1966 and served 2 terms in the House of Representatives. She faces astronaut Mark Kelly. Kelly was born in 1964 and has no political experience, but his wife was a Congresswoman until she recovered from a gunshot wound to the brain. That qualifies. We can expect another nailbiter, not likely to be decided on election night. McSally won't give up so easily this time so it might take days or weeks to know the winner. Then we can expect a rematch in 2022. In this unusual election, with Presidential coattails a big factor in a state that recently turned from red to purple I think Kelly displaces McSally. PREDICTION: DEMOCRAT MARK KELLY UNSEATS MARTHA MCSALLY CLOSE 4. Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe versus Abby Broyles No Senator who won his first term in 1990 is still serving, but Republican Jim Inhofe of Oklahoma won a special election in 1994. Someday there will be an even-numbered year in which no person born in the 1930s is on the ballot for a 6-year Senate term. For a while it looked like this might be the year, but Jim Inhofe, 86, decided to go for one more term. Old as he is, Inhofe is not the oldest Senator and far from first in seniority, but by the end of another 6-year term he might be the oldest. He chairs the Armed Services Commitee, where he replaced John McCain. His opponent is Abby Broyles, who does not have a Wikipedia article. In that red state that has never been purple Inhofe is sure to win. PREDICTION: JIM INHOFE BEATS ABBY BROYLES EASY 5. Kansas: Roger Marshall versus Barbara Boiler Pat Roberts, not to be confused with anyone else, won his first Senate term in 1996 and decided to retire at 84. That could have made this a big battle but Kansas is the reddest of red states, so Republican Roger Marshall, born 1960, second term Congressman, can look forward to spending his senior years in the Senate. His opponent is Barbara Bollier from the state senate. She was born in 1958. Marshall is sure to win. PREDICTION: REPUBLICAN ROGER MARSHALL BEATS BARBARA BOLLIER EASY 6. Wyoming: Cynthia Lumnis versus Merav Ben David In Wyoming Mike Enzi also retired after 4 terms, age 76. Here also there is little suspense in the battle for the empty seat. Wyoming was never anything but Republican red. The GOP nominated Cynthia Lumnis, born 1954. She probably doesn't plan a long career in the Senate, just a worthy ending to a good life. She first held office in 1979 and has served 6 terms in the House of Representatives. Since Wyoming has only one seat in the House, she needs only the same voters who voted for her 6 times for the House. Her opponent is Merav Ben David, born 1959. Merav is a woman zoologist born in Israel in 1959. She was naturalized in 2009, so it doesn't matter where she was born. Her campaign relies heavily on the desire to elect someone unusual. I don't think that will be enough. PREDICTION: REPUBLICAN CYNTHIA LUMNIS BEATS MERAV BEN DAVID EASY 7. Maine: Susan Collins versus Sara Gideon Republican Susan Collins of Maine was born in 1952. Her ancestral line is available but it stops in Maine in the late 1700s, one generation too close to the present for me to find a common ancestor or for others to connect to the family of fictional monsters in the same state and name. When she was born Maine was a red state. When she won her first term in 1996 Maine was still a red state. Now it is purple, with real independents, politically between the standard platforms of both parties. Those voters decide every election and will surely decide this one. Collins chairs the committees on aging and homeland security. She considered retirement at 68 but opted for one more term. Collins is considered a RINO by many right wingers, but her supporters consider her a true statesman, considering what's best for the country with every vote. Her opponent is Sara Gideon, born 1971, another generational battle. She's the Speaker of the Maine House of Representatives, so she's looking to jump 3 steps. If there was a solid independent in this race, the outcome might be in doubt, but Collins has won hard battles before. This might be the hardest, or the easiest. I'll call it the hardest, but Collins knows how to win the tough ones. PREDICTION: REPUBLICAN SUSAN COLLINS BEATS SARA GIDEON CLOSE
2. Kentucky: Mitch McConnell versus Amy McGrath Kentucky was a blue state for a century, but it wasn't quite as blue as other slave states. When Mitch McConnell won his first term in 1984 it was getting purple. As he won term after term the state turned Republican red, but it's not as red as other slave states so Democrats think they have a chance to make it purple again. The biggest possible step in that direction would be to unseat the GOP Senate majority leader as he seeks his seventh term. They think they have a chance this year with Amy McGrath, a former marine fighter pilot born in 1975. McConnell was born in 1942 so this is the first of many generational battles we'll encounter. McConnell is the most important politician from Kentucky since Henry Clay. I don't think Kentuckians will end his career now. McConnell usually wins by about 10% and I think this will follow the usual pattern. PREDICTION: REPUBLICAN MITCH MCCONNELL BEATS AMY MCGRATH EASY 3. Arizona: Martha McSally versus Mark Kelly In 2016, against my advice, John McCain ran for a sixth Senate term at age 80. He won of course, but soon was diagnosed with cancer. McCain lived just long enough for the special election to replace him to be held in 2020 instead o0f 2018. Meanwhile first term Arizona Senator Jeff Flake decided not to run again, avoiding a certin defeat in either the primary or general election. That resulted in a heated race that was still in doubt the day after the election. Republican Martha McSally conceded defeat on Wednesday. Then John Kyl, a retired Senator appointed to return to the Senate as McCain's replacement, announced his retirement the end of the year. The Governor appointed Mcsally to replace him and she now seeks election to the remaining 2 years of McCain's term. McSally was born in 1966 and served 2 terms in the House of Representatives. She faces astronaut Mark Kelly. Kelly was born in 1964 and has no political experience, but his wife was a Congresswoman until she recovered from a gunshot wound to the brain. That qualifies. We can expect another nailbiter, not likely to be decided on election night. McSally won't give up so easily this time so it might take days or weeks to know the winner. Then we can expect a rematch in 2022. In this unusual election, with Presidential coattails a big factor in a state that recently turned from red to purple I think Kelly displaces McSally. PREDICTION: DEMOCRAT MARK KELLY UNSEATS MARTHA MCSALLY CLOSE 4. Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe versus Abby Broyles No Senator who won his first term in 1990 is still serving, but Republican Jim Inhofe of Oklahoma won a special election in 1994. Someday there will be an even-numbered year in which no person born in the 1930s is on the ballot for a 6-year Senate term. For a while it looked like this might be the year, but Jim Inhofe, 86, decided to go for one more term. Old as he is, Inhofe is not the oldest Senator and far from first in seniority, but by the end of another 6-year term he might be the oldest. He chairs the Armed Services Commitee, where he replaced John McCain. His opponent is Abby Broyles, who does not have a Wikipedia article. In that red state that has never been purple Inhofe is sure to win. PREDICTION: JIM INHOFE BEATS ABBY BROYLES EASY 5. Kansas: Roger Marshall versus Barbara Boiler Pat Roberts, not to be confused with anyone else, won his first Senate term in 1996 and decided to retire at 84. That could have made this a big battle but Kansas is the reddest of red states, so Republican Roger Marshall, born 1960, second term Congressman, can look forward to spending his senior years in the Senate. His opponent is Barbara Bollier from the state senate. She was born in 1958. Marshall is sure to win. PREDICTION: REPUBLICAN ROGER MARSHALL BEATS BARBARA BOLLIER EASY 6. Wyoming: Cynthia Lumnis versus Merav Ben David In Wyoming Mike Enzi also retired after 4 terms, age 76. Here also there is little suspense in the battle for the empty seat. Wyoming was never anything but Republican red. The GOP nominated Cynthia Lumnis, born 1954. She probably doesn't plan a long career in the Senate, just a worthy ending to a good life. She first held office in 1979 and has served 6 terms in the House of Representatives. Since Wyoming has only one seat in the House, she needs only the same voters who voted for her 6 times for the House. Her opponent is Merav Ben David, born 1959. Merav is a woman zoologist born in Israel in 1959. She was naturalized in 2009, so it doesn't matter where she was born. Her campaign relies heavily on the desire to elect someone unusual. I don't think that will be enough. PREDICTION: REPUBLICAN CYNTHIA LUMNIS BEATS MERAV BEN DAVID EASY 7. Maine: Susan Collins versus Sara Gideon Republican Susan Collins of Maine was born in 1952. Her ancestral line is available but it stops in Maine in the late 1700s, one generation too close to the present for me to find a common ancestor or for others to connect to the family of fictional monsters in the same state and name. When she was born Maine was a red state. When she won her first term in 1996 Maine was still a red state. Now it is purple, with real independents, politically between the standard platforms of both parties. Those voters decide every election and will surely decide this one. Collins chairs the committees on aging and homeland security. She considered retirement at 68 but opted for one more term. Collins is considered a RINO by many right wingers, but her supporters consider her a true statesman, considering what's best for the country with every vote. Her opponent is Sara Gideon, born 1971, another generational battle. She's the Speaker of the Maine House of Representatives, so she's looking to jump 3 steps. If there was a solid independent in this race, the outcome might be in doubt, but Collins has won hard battles before. This might be the hardest, or the easiest. I'll call it the hardest, but Collins knows how to win the tough ones. PREDICTION: REPUBLICAN SUSAN COLLINS BEATS SARA GIDEON CLOSE
8: Alabama: Doug Jones versus Tommy Tuberville. Alabama was the bluest state in the country from the birth of the party until the 1980s, but in 1996 they elected former Democrat Jeff Sessions. He joined fellow convert Richard Shelby in the Senate, making the state Republican red. Sessions was reelected in 2002, 2008 and 2014. Then Trump did a stupid thing. He put Sessions in the cabinet, creating a special election for the remainder of the term. Some Strange events followed and when the brimstone cleared Democrat Doug Jones, born 1954, joined the Senate. He now seeks a full term as the incumbent most likely to lose. Sessions left the administration mad and tried to regain his old seat, but lost a runoff to Tommy Tuberville. Tuberville was also born in 1954. Alabamans like their Senators old these days. He was a football coach, believing in a strong defense. He couldn't pass up this opportunity and expects to touch down in the Senate next January. PREDICTION: REPUBLICAN TOMMY TUBERVILLE BEATS DOUG JONES EASY 9. Rhode Island: Jack Reed versus Allen Waters When more than one person of the same party has served an equal amount of time I go east to west, so Jack Reed of Rhode Island, born 1949, ranking Democrat on the Armed Services Committee is next. Rhode Island was a swing state when he was born and went blue before he reached the Senate in 1996. I moved to Rhode Island in 2001, but missed the election of 2002. In 2008 I still didn't know Jack Reed from Harry Reid. I have seen no signs for Reed this year and don't recall any in past elections. The Republican nominee is Allen Waters, who does not have a Wikipedia article. PREDICTION: DEMOCRAT JACK REED BEATS ALLEN WATERS EASY 10. Illinois: Dick Durbin versus Mark Curran Minority Whip Dick Durbin was born in 1944, when Illinois was a swing state. It was completely blue when he hit the Senate in 1996 and he has had 4 easy elections. No one expects this to be harder. Obviously he hopes to become majority whip next year, the crowning achievement late in life. His opponent is Mark Curran, former Sheriff of Lake County, born in 1963, making this another generational battle. No one expects an upset. PREDICTION: DEMOCRAT DICK DURBIN BEATS MARK CURRAN EASY 11: Tennessee: Bill Hagerty versus Marquita Bradshaw. Lamar Alexander did things the right way. After failing to win a primary for President he ran for the Senate and served 3 terms. Now he retires at 80 in yet another state that went from blue to red during his lifetime. The fight for this open seat will get intense for sure. Tennessee was never the bluest of states and has never been among the reddest. Personality may make the difference this year. The Republicans chose Bill Hagerty, born 1959. The Democrats chose Marquita Bradshaw, born 1974. He was a state official then Ambassador to Japan for Trump. She is black and an officer in the Sierra Club. If she wins the upset will rival a victory against one of the sitting Senators. PREDICTION: REPUBLICAN BILL HAGERTY BEATS MARQUITA BRADSHAW EASY 12: South Carolina: Lindsey Graham versus Jaime Harrison Lindsey Graham, born 1955 and seeking his fourth term, is the chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee. That makes him the most important Senator under 70. He was born when the state was blue and segregated but it was Republican red when he won his first term in the Senate. I don't want to pick a fight with Lindsey Graham but his early exit from the 2016 Presidential race suggests he likes easy races. His opponent is Jaime Harrison, black, born 1976 and former chair of the state Democratic Party. This race therefore crosses the generation, race and experience divides. PREDICTION: REPUBLICAN LINDSEY GRAHAM BEATS JAMIE HARRISON EASY 13: Texas: John Cornyn versus MJ Hegar The third seat that has been filled by the same person since the election of 2002 is Texas, also from the Confederacy, also a state that went from blue to red in the lifetime of the Senator. John Cornyn of Texas, born 1952, is the Chairman of the Senate Narcotics Caucus. He faces MJ Hegar, a female born in 1976 who served in Afghanistan. This is yet another battle across the generations and gender and experience. Democrats think they can retake Texas if enough non-white babies are born, but that won't happen this year. PREDICTION: REPUBLICAN JOHN CORNYN BEATS MJ HEGAR EASY 14. Georgia special election: Kelly Loeffler, Doug Collins and others In 2016 Georgia Senator Johnny Isaakson defied Parkinsons disease and won a third term in the Senate. He got sicker and left the Senate at the end of 2019. The Governor appointed Kelly Loeffler, born 1970, a business executive with no political experience. She faces a jungle primary November 3, followed by a runoff in January if no candidate has a majority. Her many opponents include fellow Republican Doug Collins, not the basketball player and coach but a Congressman since 2013. There are 3 notable Democrats in the race: Ed Tarver was Obama's Attorney for the state of Georgia his whole term. Raphael Warnock is a Baptist minister with a birth certificate issue. Richard Dien Winfield is a philosophy professor. (I'm working on lawyer, minister and philosopher jokes.) There are also some independents. The top 2 go to the runoff and I expect that. The Democrats should hurt each other. If Loeffler was the only serious Republican I'd have no hesitation about victory, maybe in November. However I see a muddle, maybe a lawsuit and protests. I think Collins wins the runoff against Loeffler. Please note, it counts as close if a runoff is needed regardless of the spread in either race. PREDICTION: REPUBLICAN DOUG COLLINS WINS THE SPECIAL ELECTION CLOSE 15. New Mexico: Ben Ray Lujan versus Mark Ronchetti Now we reach the states in which Senators won their first terms in 2008. The first is New Mexico, where there is a fight going on for an open seat in a swing state. In 2018 Schumer did not permit any Democratic Senators to retire. This year Tom Udall, 72 of New Mexico told Schumer to...Udall is a nice man so I think he put it politely. New Mexico is a swing state, but a state neither party tries too hard to win. With the smallest population on the Mexico border the biggest issue there is probably illegal immigration and the wall. That will determine the Presidential winner and the Senate seat might go with it. The Democrats nominated Ben Ray Lujan, born in 1972, a third term member of the House of Representatives. The Republican nominee is Mark Ronchetti, who does not have a Wikipedia article. Normally I'd pick the Democrat easy under these circumstances, but I think this could be a thriller. PREDICTION: DEMOCRAT BEN RAY LUJAN BEATS MARK RONCHETTI CLOSE 16. New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen versus Corky Messner Democrat Jeanne Shaheen, born in 1947, started winning elections about the same time New Hampshire started transitioning from red to purple. She served as Governor then won a close Senate race in Obama's coattails in 2008. In 2014 I predicted she would lose amid the anti-Obama ferver, but she found a way to win. This year she faces another tough battle, but her Republican opponent is Corky Messner, who does not have a Wikipedia article. The race for President in that state may go into overtime and this one might, but I think Shaheen has some special magic and will get by. PREDICTION: DEMOCRAT JEANNE SHAHEEN BEATS CORKY MESSNER CLOSE 17. Virginia: Mark Warner versus Daniel Gade Virginia is another swing state that went Democratic in 2008 with Obama's big win. Mark Warner, born 1954 when Virginia was blue and segregated, lived through the state's conversion from blue to red and back to purple. His opponent is Daniel Gade, a black tank commander with no political experience. Gade was born in 1975, so this is yet another generational battle. In 2016 the other Senator from Virginia ran for Vice President and it took most of the night to secure the state. Biden is extremely popular in eastern Virginia, so the Democrats are not worried about holding the state, but Warner might have problems. I think Warner knows how to handle a challenge and the voters he needs are very dumb. PREDICTION: DEMOCRAT MARK WARNER BEATS DANIEL GADE EASY 18: Oregon: Jeff Merkley versus Jo Rae Perkins Oregon has elected Democrats in recent elections, but that does not mean it is no longer a swing state. Those races are often tight and go into overtime to count. The Presidential race will almost surely end election night in the undeclared category. Jeff Merkley, born in 1956, is likely to take a third term and hoping to become an important Senator soon. His opponent is Jo Rae Perkins. Also born in 1956, she often runs for office and always loses. No one doubts she will lose again. PREDICTION: DEMOCRAT JEFF MERKLEY BEATS JO RAE PERKINS EASY 19. Idaho: Jim Risch versus Paulette Jordan The only remaining Republican who won his first term in the Senate in 2008 is Jim Risch of Idaho. Born in 1943 in a state that has always been red, he had to wait his turn to reach the top, so he got his first term at age 65. Risch is the Chairman of the Foreig n Relations and Small Business committees. He can't retire now. He faces Paulette Jordan. She was born in 1979 and serves in the state legislature. This is another battle across gender and generational lines. Jordan will surely win a lot of Democratic primaries if she keeps trying, but she is not likely to become a giant killer. PREDICTION: REPUBLICAN JIM RISCH BEATS PAULETTE JORDAN EASY 20. Minnesota: Tina Smith versus Jason Lewis In 2008 it took a very long recount for comedian Al Franken to win unseat the Republican incumbent in Minnesota. So I predicted Franken would lose in 2014, but he won rather easily. Then he resigned from the Senate after a sex scandal. The Governor appointed Tina Smith to replace him, and she won a special election to finish the term, also against my prediction. Smith was born in 1958 so she is old enough to remember when the state transitioned from purple to blue. She's trying to keep it that way. Her opponent is Jason Lewis. He was born in 1955 and is serving his second term in the House. This battle of late bloomers could take past their bedtimes, but I won't be wrong about this seat for a third time. PREDICTION: DEMOCRAT TINA SMITH BEATS JASON LEWIS CLOSE 21. Delaware: Chris Coons versus Lauren Witzke Delaware was a swing state until recently and with its small population it won't take much to turn it back, but with Biden running for President most Democrats in the state are safe, including Chris Coons. He was born in 1963, making him one of the youngest incumbents. Coons won a special election in 2010 for the seat Biden held for 36 years. Coons had a tough time in that election and in 2014, so this should be his easiest yet. His Republican opponent is Lauren Witzke, who does not have a Wikipedia article. This is one of the easiest wins on the list. PREDICTION: DEMOCRAT CHRIS COONS BEATS LAUREN WITZKE EASY
22. Massachusetts: Ed Markey versus Kevin O'Connor. In 1976 Ed Markey beat a crowd of older men to take a seat recently vacated by the death of a Congressman. He then served 36 years in the House, becoming a legend for consumer advocacy. In 2013 he won a special election to succeed John Kerry when Kerry became Secretary of State. Markey won a full term easily in 2014. Markey was born in 1946 when Massachusetts was still a swing state, but it turned blue while he was a child. The state is bluer than most, so no Democrat has much to worry about in the general election. However Markey just won the toughest, or second toughest race of his career. He beat a Kennedy in Massachusetts in the primary. Samson took on Goliath and Goliath won. His opponent is Kevin O'Connor. Republican O'Connor doesn't have a Wikipedia article, but the other 2 candidates do. In this state, the Republican might finish third. PREDICTION: DEMOCRAT ED MARKEY BEATS KEVIN O'CONNOR EASY 23. New Jersey: Cory Booker versus Rik Mehta In 2013 Mayor Cory Booker won a special election in October to replace a dead Senator. They made a big deal of the timing. He won a full term the next year. Booker was in the Democratic Presidential race in 2019. As I predicted, he dropped out early to avoid a challenge in the primary. Booker was born in 1969 and that extra year in the Senate might make him chairman of an important committee someday. He certainly has nothing to fear from Republicans in a state that keeps getting bluer. His opponent is Rik Mehta, another Republican without a Wikipedia article. PREDICTION: DEMOCRAT CORY BOOKER BEATS RIK MEHTA EASY 24. Michigan: Gary Peters versus John James The only Democrat who won his first term in the Senate is Gary Peters of Michigan. This is not the relief pitcher or the hockey player. He was born in 1958, so he reached the Senate at the right age. Michigan remains a purple state. They voted against the Bushes because the state has a grudge against Texas since 1845 but its up for grabs for a Presidential race and no Senator can get to comfortable. Peters faces John James, a black man who lost a tough fight in 2018. He was a soldier and was born in 1981. That makes this another fight across race and generational lines. This battle might take the Presidential race with it. Black voters have a very tough choice, so it is possible the Senate race could go to one party and the Presidential race to another. With many mailed ballots, both races may go into overtime. I think Peters gets the save. PREDICTION: DEMOCRAT GARY PETERS BEATS JOHN JAMES CLOSE 25. North Carolina: Tom Tillis versus Cal Cunningham For the remaing races, all Republicans, I go east to west. Tom Tillis should not be confused with the stuttering country singer or his lovely daughter, but that might have helped him win in 2014. Tillis was born in 1960 when the state was dark blue and watched it grow to bright red. Is this the year the red dims? His opponent is Cal Cunningham, former state legislator born in 1973. Cunningham doesn't have anything going for him except hate for the President. Tillis got COVID. That might help. PREDICTION: REPUBLICAN TOM TILLIS BEATS CAL CUNNINGHAM EASY 26. Georgia: David Perdue versus Jon Ossoff In 2018 a Democrat came close to forcing a runoff election, so they think that Georgia is becoming a swing state. In 2014 I predicted that the incumbent, Saxby Chambliss, would win another term. I didn't know he was retiring. David Purdue, born in 1949, won his Senate seat at 65. He seeks a second term now, hoping to someday become a committee chairman. His opponent is Jon Ossoff. Born in 1987, Ossoff would become the youngest Senator and a major hero in the Democratic Party. This is another huge generational gap. I think Georgia is still a red state and Perdue gets another term. PRDEICTION: DAVID PERDUE BEATS JON OSSOFF EASY 27. West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito versus Paula Jean Swearingin Shelley Moore was born in 1953 when West Virginia was a blue state. It was never as blue as other states and thought it has turned red it is not as red as other states. So Shelley Moore Capito might have some trouble earning a second term. Her opponent is Paula Jean Swearingin. Swearingen was born in 1974 so this is yet another race that crosses the generations. I think Capito knows how to win a catfight and it is she who will be swearing in, not Swearingin PREDICTION: REPUBLICAN SHELLY MOORE CAPITO BEATS PAULA JEAN SWEARINGIN EASY 28. Louisiana: Bill Cassidy versus Arian Perkins and others Louisiana holds a jungle vote on November 3 and a runoff in December if necessary. In 2014 I predicted that incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu would win, but she lost to Bill Cassidy. Cassidy was born in 1957, when Louisiana was dominated not just by Democrats but the Long family and other criminals. The other criminals remain but influence few elections now. The state turned red but not too red, especially in local elections. His only opponent with a Wikipedia article is Adrian Perkins. Perkins, a Democrat, was born in 1985 and is one of the youngest candidates in the race. He's the Mayor of Shreveport. There are 13 other candidates. Ithout looking closely all I can do is predict it goes to a runoff and Cassidy wins a second term. By definition a race that goes to a runoff is close. PREDICTION: REPUBLICAN BILL CASSIDY BEATS ADRIAN PERKINS AND OTHERS CLOSE 29. Arkansas: Tom Cotton versus Ricky Harrington Tom Cotton was born in 1977 and is the youngest Senator running for reelection. Even in 1977 Arkansas was deep blue and transitioned more slowly to Republican than other states. Arkansas has had enough of the Clintons. The state is so red that the Democrats have no candidate this year. The top challenger is Libertarian Ricky Harrington. Beware of young politicians from Arkansas. PREDICTION: REPUBLICAN TOM COTTON BEATS RICKY HARRINGTON EASY 30. Nebraska: Ben Sasse versus Chris Janicek Ben Sasse was born in 1972, a Republican in a state that was Republican since it joined the union. His opponent is Chris Janicek, another Democrat without a Wikipedia article. Sasse can expect a long career in the Senate. PREDICTION: REPUBLICAN BEN SASSE BEATS CHRIS JANICEK EASY 31: South Dakota: Mike Rounds versus Dan Ahlers South Dakota is another state where Republicans rarely have trouble winning, but the population is low so an occasional Democrat with the right personality can go a long way. The first term Senator is Mike Rounds, born in 1954. He's another late bloomer, looking for a second term, but he'll be old at the end of it. His opponent is Dan Ahlers. Ahlers was born in 1973, so this is another generational battle. Ahlers served a total of 4 years in the state legislature. That's about as far as Democrats usually get in that state but in this crazy year he hopes for an upset. I don't think he'll get it. PREDICTION: REPUBLICAN MIKE ROUNDS BEATS DAN AHLERS EASY 32. Iowa: Joni Ernst versus Theresa Greenfield Iowa is just east of South Dakota and Nebraska, but I saved it until now so I can predict 3 shaky races in a row. In 2014 Joni Ernst, born in 1970, won a tough race against a soldier to replace beloved Senator Tom Harkin. Ernst will never have an easy race, especially in a year like this, but her opponent Theresa Greenfield doesn't have a Wikipedia page and because Ernst won a thriller I think she'll make it through. PREDICTION: REPUBLICAN JONI ERNST BEATS THERESA GREENFIELD CLOSE 33. Colorado: Cory Gardner versus John Hickenlooper In swing state Colorado Cory Gardner upset incumbent Mark Udall. Anyone able to do that has more strength than others, but the baggage of being a loyal Republican in this election cycle is hard to handle. Gardner was born in 1974 and looks to have a great future in the Republican party, but he needs to win this race first. Normally I would predict a man like that would win, but the Democrats picked a formidable opponent: former Governor John Hickenlooper. Hickenlooper was born in 1951, so this is another generational battle, but the old o ne is the challenger. I have no confidence at all about this, but I'm picking Hickenlooper. PREDICTION: DEMOCRAT JOHN HICKENLOOPER UNSEATS CORY GARDNER CLOSE 34. Montana: Steve Daines versus Steve Bullock Montana has been a Republican state since it joined the union. Normally that would mean that first term Senator Steve Daines could look forward to a series of easy elections until death. Daines was born in 1962, so death should be 2 elections off. However in Montana a Democrat who wins the people to him through charm and confidence can go a long way. Governor Steve Bullock has already gone a long way. Bullock was born in 1966 and should be good for 3 terms, starting this year. PREDICTION: DEMOCRAT STEVE BULLOCK UNSEATS STEVE DAINES CLOSE
35. Alaska: Dan Sullivan versus Al Gross Finally we come to Alaska. First term Republican Dan Sullivan was born in 1964. Most people think Alaska is a red state because Republicans finish first in Presidential races every time, but the state is really purple. The people there respond to different stimuli and think differently than the rest of us. So a Democrat with the right personality might succeed. More importantly, an independent with an agenda is likely to make a race competitive. This year the Democrats of Alaska failed to find a candidate, so independent Al Gross is the top challenger. We can expect Gross to get respectable numbers, maybe even comparable to the average Alaska Democrat who loses. That's not close though. PREDICTION: REPUBLICAN DAN SULLIVAN BEATS AL GROSS EASY So if I'm right 4 Republicans and one Democrat lose their seats this election season, however one Republican beats a Republican incumbent, so the GOP loses 2 seats. That would mean that the Senate balance goes from 53-45-2 to 51-47-2. As in 2018 I (and any of you who makes predictions also) get 1 point for the winner, one for correctly guessing close or easy. 5% is the dividing line after all ballots are counted that will be counted. You get 5 points for the exact distribution of the Senate after the last special election, losing one for every point off. You get 5 more for predicting which party will control the Senate. That's a maximum of 80 points when the last election ends in January. There may yet be more developments.
So how did I do so far? Number 1: Mississippi: Cindy Hyde-Smith versus Mike Espy I start in the order in which the person who started the term first joined the Senate. That gives several quirks starting with the first one. Thad Cochran won his first term in the Senate in 1978 at age 44 in Mississippi. Back then the blue state was starting to turn purple. By 2014 as he won his seventh term at age 80 it was Republican red. Cochran got sick and retired in 2018, dying a year later. The Governor appointed Cindy Hyde-Smith to replace him. She was born in 1959 and was serving as Commissioner of Commerce and Agriculture. She won a special election later that year against former Clinton cabinet member Mike Espy. This year she's running for a full term against former Clinton cabinet member Mike Espy. Espy is 67 and really is the best the Democrats can do in that state. I think she wins again by roughly the same percentage 8%. PREDICTION: REPUBLICAN CINDY HYDE SMITH BEATS MIKE ESPY EASY Hyde-Smith 55-42 Hyde Smith won easy: 2 points 2. Kentucky: Mitch McConnell versus Amy McGrath Kentucky was a blue state for a century, but it wasn't quite as blue as other slave states. When Mitch McConnell won his first term in 1984 it was getting purple. As he won term after term the state turned Republican red, but it's not as red as other slave states so Democrats think they have a chance to make it purple again. The biggest possible step in that direction would be to unseat the GOP Senate majority leader as he seeks his seventh term. They think they have a chance this year with Amy McGrath, a former marine fighter pilot born in 1975. McConnell was born in 1942 so this is the first of many generational battles we'll encounter. McConnell is the most important politician from Kentucky since Henry Clay. I don't think Kentuckians will end his career now. McConnell usually wins by about 10% and I think this will follow the usual pattern. PREDICTION: REPUBLICAN MITCH MCCONNELL BEATS AMY MCGRATH EASY McConnell 57-38 McConnell won easy 2 points 3. Arizona: Martha McSally versus Mark Kelly In 2016, against my advice, John McCain ran for a sixth Senate term at age 80. He won of course, but soon was diagnosed with cancer. McCain lived just long enough for the special election to replace him to be held in 2020 instead o0f 2018. Meanwhile first term Arizona Senator Jeff Flake decided not to run again, avoiding a certin defeat in either the primary or general election. That resulted in a heated race that was still in doubt the day after the election. Republican Martha McSally conceded defeat on Wednesday. Then John Kyl, a retired Senator appointed to return to the Senate as McCain's replacement, announced his retirement the end of the year. The Governor appointed Mcsally to replace him and she now seeks election to the remaining 2 years of McCain's term. McSally was born in 1966 and served 2 terms in the House of Representatives. She faces astronaut Mark Kelly. Kelly was born in 1964 and has no political experience, but his wife was a Congresswoman until she recovered from a gunshot wound to the brain. That qualifies. We can expect another nailbiter, not likely to be decided on election night. McSally won't give up so easily this time so it might take days or weeks to know the winner. Then we can expect a rematch in 2022. In this unusual election, with Presidential coattails a big factor in a state that recently turned from red to purple I think Kelly displaces McSally. PREDICTION: DEMOCRAT MARK KELLY UNSEATS MARTHA MCSALLY CLOSE Kelly 51-48 Kelly won close 2 points 4. Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe versus Abby Broyles No Senator who won his first term in 1990 is still serving, but Republican Jim Inhofe of Oklahoma won a special election in 1994. Someday there will be an even-numbered year in which no person born in the 1930s is on the ballot for a 6-year Senate term. For a while it looked like this might be the year, but Jim Inhofe, 86, decided to go for one more term. Old as he is, Inhofe is not the oldest Senator and far from first in seniority, but by the end of another 6-year term he might be the oldest. He chairs the Armed Services Commitee, where he replaced John McCain. His opponent is Abby Broyles, who does not have a Wikipedia article. In that red state that has never been purple Inhofe is sure to win. PREDICTION: JIM INHOFE BEATS ABBY BROYLES EASY Inhofe 62-38 Inhofe won easy 2 points 5. Kansas: Roger Marshall versus Barbara Boiler Pat Roberts, not to be confused with anyone else, won his first Senate term in 1996 and decided to retire at 84. That could have made this a big battle but Kansas is the reddest of red states, so Republican Roger Marshall, born 1960, second term Congressman, can look forward to spending his senior years in the Senate. His opponent is Barbara Bollier from the state senate. She was born in 1958. Marshall is sure to win. PREDICTION: REPUBLICAN ROGER MARSHALL BEATS BARBARA BOLLIER EASY Marshall 53-41 Marshall won easy 2 points 6. Wyoming: Cynthia Lumnis versus Merav Ben David In Wyoming Mike Enzi also retired after 4 terms, age 76. Here also there is little suspense in the battle for the empty seat. Wyoming was never anything but Republican red. The GOP nominated Cynthia Lumnis, born 1954. She probably doesn't plan a long career in the Senate, just a worthy ending to a good life. She first held office in 1979 and has served 6 terms in the House of Representatives. Since Wyoming has only one seat in the House, she needs only the same voters who voted for her 6 times for the House. Her opponent is Merav Ben David, born 1959. Merav is a woman zoologist born in Israel in 1959. She was naturalized in 2009, so it doesn't matter where she was born. Her campaign relies heavily on the desire to elect someone unusual. I don't think that will be enough. PREDICTION: REPUBLICAN CYNTHIA LUMNIS BEATS MERAV BEN DAVID EASY Lumnis 73-26 Lumnis won easy 2 points 7. Maine: Susan Collins versus Sara Gideon Republican Susan Collins of Maine was born in 1952. Her ancestral line is available but it stops in Maine in the late 1700s, one generation too close to the present for me to find a common ancestor or for others to connect to the family of fictional monsters in the same state and name. When she was born Maine was a red state. When she won her first term in 1996 Maine was still a red state. Now it is purple, with real independents, politically between the standard platforms of both parties. Those voters decide every election and will surely decide this one. Collins chairs the committees on aging and homeland security. She considered retirement at 68 but opted for one more term. Collins is considered a RINO by many right wingers, but her supporters consider her a true statesman, considering what's best for the country with every vote. Her opponent is Sara Gideon, born 1971, another generational battle. She's the Speaker of the Maine House of Representatives, so she's looking to jump 3 steps. If there was a solid independent in this race, the outcome might be in doubt, but Collins has won hard battles before. This might be the hardest, or the easiest. I'll call it the hardest, but Collins knows how to win the tough ones. PREDICTION: REPUBLICAN SUSAN COLLINS BEATS SARA GIDEON CLOSE Collins 50-42 Collins won easy 1 point
decide every election and will surely decide this one. Collins chairs the committees on aging and homeland security. She considered retirement at 68 but opted for one more term. Collins is considered a RINO by many right wingers, but her supporters consider her a true statesman, considering what's best for the country with every vote. Her opponent is Sara Gideon, born 1971, another generational battle. She's the Speaker of the Maine House of Representatives, so she's looking to jump 3 steps. If there was a solid independent in this race, the outcome might be in doubt, but Collins has won hard battles before. This might be the hardest, or the easiest. I'll call it the hardest, but Collins knows how to win the tough ones. PREDICTION: REPUBLICAN SUSAN COLLINS BEATS SARA GIDEON CLOSE Collins 50-42 Collins won easy 1 point
8: Alabama: Doug Jones versus Tommy Tuberville. Alabama was the bluest state in the country from the birth of the party until the 1980s, but in 1996 they elected former Democrat Jeff Sessions. He joined fellow convert Richard Shelby in the Senate, making the state Republican red. Sessions was reelected in 2002, 2008 and 2014. Then Trump did a stupid thing. He put Sessions in the cabinet, creating a special election for the remainder of the term. Some Strange events followed and when the brimstone cleared Democrat Doug Jones, born 1954, joined the Senate. He now seeks a full term as the incumbent most likely to lose. Sessions left the administration mad and tried to regain his old seat, but lost a runoff to Tommy Tuberville. Tuberville was also born in 1954. Alabamans like their Senators old these days. He was a football coach, believing in a strong defense. He couldn't pass up this opportunity and expects to touch down in the Senate next January. PREDICTION: REPUBLICAN TOMMY TUBERVILLE BEATS DOUG JONES EASY Tuberville 60-39 Tuberville won easy 2 points 9. Rhode Island: Jack Reed versus Allen Waters When more than one person of the same party has served an equal amount of time I go east to west, so Jack Reed of Rhode Island, born 1949, ranking Democrat on the Armed Services Committee is next. Rhode Island was a swing state when he was born and went blue before he reached the Senate in 1996. I moved to Rhode Island in 2001, but missed the election of 2002. In 2008 I still didn't know Jack Reed from Harry Reid. I have seen no signs for Reed this year and don't recall any in past elections. The Republican nominee is Allen Waters, who does not have a Wikipedia article. PREDICTION: DEMOCRAT JACK REED BEATS ALLEN WATERS EASY Reed 66-33 Reed won easy 2 points 10. Illinois: Dick Durbin versus Mark Curran Minority Whip Dick Durbin was born in 1944, when Illinois was a swing state. It was completely blue when he hit the Senate in 1996 and he has had 4 easy elections. No one expects this to be harder. Obviously he hopes to become majority whip next year, the crowning achievement late in life. His opponent is Mark Curran, former Sheriff of Lake County, born in 1963, making this another generational battle. No one expects an upset. PREDICTION: DEMOCRAT DICK DURBIN BEATS MARK CURRAN EASY Durbin 54-39 Durbin won easy 2 points 11: Tennessee: Bill Hagerty versus Marquita Bradshaw. Lamar Alexander did things the right way. After failing to win a primary for President he ran for the Senate and served 3 terms. Now he retires at 80 in yet another state that went from blue to red during his lifetime. The fight for this open seat will get intense for sure. Tennessee was never the bluest of states and has never been among the reddest. Personality may make the difference this year. The Republicans chose Bill Hagerty, born 1959. The Democrats chose Marquita Bradshaw, born 1974. He was a state official then Ambassador to Japan for Trump. She is black and an officer in the Sierra Club. If she wins the upset will rival a victory against one of the sitting Senators. PREDICTION: REPUBLICAN BILL HAGERTY BEATS MARQUITA BRADSHAW EASY Hagerty 62-35 Hagerty won easy 2 points
12: South Carolina: Lindsey Graham versus Jaime Harrison Lindsey Graham, born 1955 and seeking his fourth term, is the chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee. That makes him the most important Senator under 70. He was born when the state was blue and segregated but it was Republican red when he won his first term in the Senate. I don't want to pick a fight with Lindsey Graham but his early exit from the 2016 Presidential race suggests he likes easy races. His opponent is Jaime Harrison, black, born 1976 and former chair of the state Democratic Party. This race therefore crosses the generation, race and experience divides. PREDICTION: REPUBLICAN LINDSEY GRAHAM BEATS JAMIE HARRISON EASY Grahan 54-44 Graham won easy 2 points 13: Texas: John Cornyn versus MJ Hegar The third seat that has been filled by the same person since the election of 2002 is Texas, also from the Confederacy, also a state that went from blue to red in the lifetime of the Senator. John Cornyn of Texas, born 1952, is the Chairman of the Senate Narcotics Caucus. He faces MJ Hegar, a female born in 1976 who served in Afghanistan. This is yet another battle across the generations and gender and experience. Democrats think they can retake Texas if enough non-white babies are born, but that won't happen this year. PREDICTION: REPUBLICAN JOHN CORNYN BEATS MJ HEGAR EASY Cornyn 53-43 Cornyn won easy 2 points 14. Georgia special election: Kelly Loeffler, Doug Collins and others In 2016 Georgia Senator Johnny Isaakson defied Parkinsons disease and won a third term in the Senate. He got sicker and left the Senate at the end of 2019. The Governor appointed Kelly Loeffler, born 1970, a business executive with no political experience. She faces a jungle primary November 3, followed by a runoff in January if no candidate has a majority. Her many opponents include fellow Republican Doug Collins, not the basketball player and coach but a Congressman since 2013. There are 3 notable Democrats in the race: Ed Tarver was Obama's Attorney for the state of Georgia his whole term. Raphael Warnock is a Baptist minister with a birth certificate issue. Richard Dien Winfield is a philosophy professor. (I'm working on lawyer, minister and philosopher jokes.) There are also some independents. The top 2 go to the runoff and I expect that. The Democrats should hurt each other. If Loeffler was the only serious Republican I'd have no hesitation about victory, maybe in November. However I see a muddle, maybe a lawsuit and protests. I think Collins wins the runoff against Loeffler. Please note, it counts as close if a runoff is needed regardless of the spread in either race. PREDICTION: REPUBLICAN DOUG COLLINS WINS THE SPECIAL ELECTION CLOSE Collins was third. Loeffler and Warnock go to runoff. Collins did not advance to the runoff, but there is a runoff. Therefore it is close 1 point 15. New Mexico: Ben Ray Lujan versus Mark Ronchetti Now we reach the states in which Senators won their first terms in 2008. The first is New Mexico, where there is a fight going on for an open seat in a swing state. In 2018 Schumer did not permit any Democratic Senators to retire. This year Tom Udall, 72 of New Mexico told Schumer to...Udall is a nice man so I think he put it politely. New Mexico is a swing state, but a state neither party tries too hard to win. With the smallest population on the Mexico border the biggest issue there is probably illegal immigration and the wall. That will determine the Presidential winner and the Senate seat might go with it. The Democrats nominated Ben Ray Lujan, born in 1972, a third term member of the House of Representatives. The Republican nominee is Mark Ronchetti, who does not have a Wikipedia article. Normally I'd pick the Democrat easy under these circumstances, but I think this could be a thriller. PREDICTION: DEMOCRAT BEN RAY LUJAN BEATS MARK RONCHETTI CLOSE Lujan 51.7-45.7 I've been waiting to see if this would be close or easy. There are no more votes of any kind to count in New Mexico. This was as close to close as you can get without being close Lujan won easy 1 point 16. New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen versus Corky Messner Democrat Jeanne Shaheen, born in 1947, started winning elections about the same time New Hampshire started transitioning from red to purple. She served as Governor then won a close Senate race in Obama's coattails in 2008. In 2014 I predicted she would lose amid the anti-Obama ferver, but she found a way to win. This year she faces another tough battle, but her Republican opponent is Corky Messner, who does not have a Wikipedia article. The race for President in that state may go into overtime and this one might, but I think Shaheen has some special magic and will get by. PREDICTION: DEMOCRAT JEANNE SHAHEEN BEATS CORKY MESSNER CLOSE Shaheen 56-41 Shaheen won easy 1 point 17. Virginia: Mark Warner versus Daniel Gade Virginia is another swing state that went Democratic in 2008 with Obama's big win. Mark Warner, born 1954 when Virginia was blue and segregated, lived through the state's conversion from blue to red and back to purple. His opponent is Daniel Gade, a black tank commander with no political experience. Gade was born in 1975, so this is yet another generational battle. In 2016 the other Senator from Virginia ran for Vice President and it took most of the night to secure the state. Biden is extremely popular in eastern Virginia, so the Democrats are not worried about holding the state, but Warner might have problems. I think Warner knows how to handle a challenge and the voters he needs are very dumb. PREDICTION: DEMOCRAT MARK WARNER BEATS DANIEL GADE EASY Warner 56-44 Warner won easy 2 points 18: Oregon: Jeff Merkley versus Jo Rae Perkins Oregon has elected Democrats in recent elections, but that does not mean it is no longer a swing state. Those races are often tight and go into overtime to count. The Presidential race will almost surely end election night in the undeclared category. Jeff Merkley, born in 1956, is likely to take a third term and hoping to become an important Senator soon. His opponent is Jo Rae Perkins. Also born in 1956, she often runs for office and always loses. No one doubts she will lose again. PREDICTION: DEMOCRAT JEFF MERKLEY BEATS JO RAE PERKINS EASY Merkley 57-39 Merkley won easy 2 points 19. Idaho: Jim Risch versus Paulette Jordan The only remaining Republican who won his first term in the Senate in 2008 is Jim Risch of Idaho. Born in 1943 in a state that has always been red, he had to wait his turn to reach the top, so he got his first term at age 65. Risch is the Chairman of the Foreign Relations and Small Business committees. He can't retire now. He faces Paulette Jordan. She was born in 1979 and serves in the state legislature. This is another battle across gender and generational lines. Jordan will surely win a lot of Democratic primaries if she keeps trying, but she is not likely to become a giant killer. PREDICTION: REPUBLICAN JIM RISCH BEATS PAULETTTE JORDAN EASY Risch 62-33 Risch won easy 2 points
20. Minnesota: Tina Smith versus Jason Lewis In 2008 it took a very long recount for comedian Al Franken to win unseat the Republican incumbent in Minnesota. So I predicted Franken would lose in 2014, but he won rather easily. Then he resigned from the Senate after a sex scandal. The Governor appointed Tina Smith to replace him, and she won a special election to finish the term, also against my prediction. Smith was born in 1958 so she is old enough to remember when the state transitioned from purple to blue. She's trying to keep it that way. Her opponent is Jason Lewis. He was born in 1955 and is serving his second term in the House. This battle of late bloomers could take past their bedtimes, but I won't be wrong about this seat for a third time. PREDICTION: DEMOCRAT TINA SMITH BEATS JASON LEWIS CLOSE Smith 48.8-43.5 I decided last time that 5% means 5.9% not 4.9% Smith won close 2 points 21. Delaware: Chris Coons versus Lauren Witzke Delaware was a swing state until recently and with its small population it won't take much to turn it back, but with Biden running for President most Democrats in the state are safe, including Chris Coons. He was born in 1963, making him one of the youngest incumbents. Coons won a special election in 2010 for the seat Biden held for 36 years. Coons had a tough time in that election and in 2014, so this should be his easiest yet. His Republican opponent is Lauren Witzke, who does not have a Wikipedia article. This is one of the easiest wins on the list. PREDICTION: DEMOCRAT CHRIS COONS BEATS LAUREN WITZKE EASY Coons 59-37 Coons won easy 2 points 22. Massachusetts: Ed Markey versus Kevin O'Connor. In 1976 Ed Markey beat a crowd of older men to take a seat recently vacated by the death of a Congressman. He then served 36 years in the House, becoming a legend for consumer advocacy. In 2013 he won a special election to succeed John Kerry when Kerry became Secretary of State. Markey won a full term easily in 2014. Markey was born in 1946 when Massachusetts was still a swing state, but it turned blue while he was a child. The state is bluer than most, so no Democrat has much to worry about in the general election. However Markey just won the toughest, or second toughest race of his career. He beat a Kennedy in Massachusetts in the primary. Samson took on Goliath and Goliath won. His opponent is Kevin O'Connor. Republican O'Connor doesn't have a Wikipedia article, but the other 2 candidates do. In this state, the Republican might finish third. PREDICTION: DEMOCRAT ED MARKEY BEATS KEVIN O'CONNOR EASY Markey 65-33 Markey won easy 2 points 23. New Jersey: Cory Booker versus Rik Mehta In 2013 Mayor Cory Booker won a special election in October to replace a dead Senator. They made a big deal of the timing. He won a full term the next year. Booker was in the Democratic Presidential race in 2019. As I predicted, he dropped out early to avoid a challenge in the primary. Booker was born in 1969 and that extra year in the Senate might make him chairman of an important committee someday. He certainly has nothing to fear from Republicans in a state that keeps getting bluer. His opponent is Rik Mehta, another Republican without a Wikipedia article. PREDICTION: DEMOCRAT CORY BOOKER BEATS RIK MEHTA EASY Booker 57-41 Booker won easy 2 points 24. Michigan: Gary Peters versus John James The only Democrat who won his first term in the Senate is Gary Peters of Michigan. This is not the relief pitcher or the hockey player. He was born in 1958, so he reached the Senate at the right age. Michigan remains a purple state. They voted against the Bushes because the state has a grudge against Texas since 1845 but its up for grabs for a Presidential race and no Senator can get to comfortable. Peters faces John James, a black man who lost a tough fight in 2018. He was a soldier and was born in 1981. That makes this another fight across race and generational lines. This battle might take the Presidential race with it. Black voters have a very tough choice, so it is possible the Senate race could go to one party and the Presidential race to another. With many mailed ballots, both races may go into overtime. I think Peters gets the save. PREDICTION: DEMOCRAT GARY PETERS BEATS JOHN JAMES CLOSE Peters 49-48 Peters won close 2 points 25. North Carolina: Tom Tillis versus Cal Cunningham For the remaing races, all Republicans, I go east to west. Tom Tillis should not be confused with the stuttering country singer or his lovely daughter, but that might have helped him win in 2014. Tillis was born in 1960 when the state was dark blue and watched it grow to bright red. Is this the year the red dims? His opponent is Cal Cunningham, former state legislator born in 1973. Cunningham doesn't have anything going for him except hate for the President. Tillis got COVID. That might help. PREDICTION: REPUBLICAN TOM TILLIS BEATS CAL CUNNINGHAM EASY Tillis 48-47 Tillis won close 1 point 26. Georgia: David Perdue versus Jon Ossoff In 2018 a Democrat came close to forcing a runoff election, so they think that Georgia is becoming a swing state. In 2014 I predicted that the incumbent, Saxby Chambliss, would win another term. I didn't know he was retiring. David Purdue, born in 1949, won his Senate seat at 65. He seeks a second term now, hoping to someday become a committee chairman. His opponent is Jon Ossoff. Born in 1987, Ossoff would become the youngest Senator and a major hero in the Democratic Party. This is another huge generational gap. I think Georgia is still a red state and Perdue gets another term. PREDICTION: DAVID PERDUE BEATS JON OSSOFF EASY Purdue 49-48 pending runoff Georgia fools me twice this year, but it isn't over yet. Purdue appears to have less than 50% so there will probably be a runoff. As yet I can claim nothing but I still expect Purdue to win the runoff. 27. West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito versus Paula Jean Swearingin Shelley Moore was born in 1953 when West Virginia was a blue state. It was never as blue as other states and thought it has turned red it is not as red as other states. So Shelley Moore Capito might have some trouble earning a second term. Her opponent is Paula Jean Swearingin. Swearingen was born in 1974 so this is yet another race that crosses the generations. I think Capito knows how to win a catfight and it is she who will be swearing in, not Swearingin PREDICTION: REPUBLICAN SHELLY MOORE CAPITO BEATS PAULA JEAN SWEARINGIN EASY Capito 70-27 Capito won easy 2 points 28. Louisiana: Bill Cassidy versus Arian Perkins and others Louisiana holds a jungle vote on November 3 and a runoff in December if necessary. In 2014 I predicted that incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu would win, but she lost to Bill Cassidy. Cassidy was born in 1957, when Louisiana was dominated not just by Democrats but the Long family and other criminals. The other criminals remain but influence few elections now. The state turned red but not too red, especially in local elections. His only opponent with a Wikipedia article is Adrian Perkins. Perkins, a Democrat, was born in 1985 and is one of the youngest candidates in the race. He's the Mayor of Shreveport. There are 13 other candidates. Ithout looking closely all I can do is predict it goes to a runoff and Cassidy wins a second term. By definition a race that goes to a runoff is close. PREDICTION: REPUBLICAN BILL CASSIDY BEATS ADRIAN PERKINS AND OTHERS CLOSE Cassidy 59-19 Cassidy won easy 1 point 29. Arkansas: Tom Cotton versus Ricky Harrington Tom Cotton was born in 1977 and is the youngest Senator running for reelection. Even in 1977 Arkansas was deep blue and transitioned more slowly to Republican than other states. Arkansas has had enough of the Clintons. The state is so red that the Democrats have no candidate this year. The top challenger is Libertarian Ricky Harrington. Beware of young politicians from Arkansas. PREDICTION: REPUBLICAN TOM COTTON BEATS RICKY HARRINGTON EASY Cotton 66-33 Cotton won easy 1 point 30. Nebraska: Ben Sasse versus Chris Janicek Ben Sasse was born in 1972, a Republican in a state that was Republican since it joined the union. His opponent is Chris Janicek, another Democrat without a Wikipedia article. Sasse can expect a long career in the Senate. PREDICTION: REPUBLICAN BEN SASSE BEATS CHRIS JANICEK EASY Sasse 64-25 Sasse won easy 2 points
31: South Dakota: Mike Rounds versus Dan Ahlers South Dakota is another state where Republicans rarely have trouble winning, but the population is low so an occasional Democrat with the right personality can go a long way. The first term Senator is Mike Rounds, born in 1954. He's another late bloomer, looking for a second term, but he'll be old at the end of it. His opponent is Dan Ahlers. Ahlers was born in 1973, so this is another generational battle. Ahlers served a total of 4 years in the state legislature. That's about as far as Democrats usually get in that state but in this crazy year he hopes for an upset. I don't think he'll get it. PREDICTION: REPUBLICAN MIKE ROUNDS BEATS DAN AHLERS EASY Rounds 66-34 Rounds won easy 2 points 32. Iowa: Joni Ernst versus Theresa Greenfield Iowa is just east of South Dakota and Nebraska, but I saved it until now so I can predict 3 shaky races in a row. In 2014 Joni Ernst, born in 1970, won a tough race against a soldier to replace beloved Senator Tom Harkin. Ernst will never have an easy race, especially in a year like this, but her opponent Theresa Greenfield doesn't have a Wikipedia page and because Ernst won a thriller I think she'll make it through. PREDICTION: REPUBLICAN JONI ERNST BEATS THERESA GREENFIELD CLOSE Ernst 51.8 Greenfield 45.2 That's close to being close but not close Ernst won easy 1 point 33. Colorado: Cory Gardner versus John Hickenlooper In swing state Colorado Cory Gardner upset incumbent Mark Udall. Anyone able to do that has more strength than others, but the baggage of being a loyal Republican in this election cycle is hard to handle. Gardner was born in 1974 and looks to have a great future in the Republican party, but he needs to win this race first. Normally I would predict a man like that would win, but the Democrats picked a formidable opponent: former Governor John Hickenlooper. Hickenlooper was born in 1951, so this is another generational battle, but the old one is the challenger. I have no confidence at all about this, but I'm picking Hickenlooper. PREDICTION: DEMOCRAT JOHN HICKENLOOPER UNSEATS CORY GARDNER CLOSE Hickenlooper 55-44 Hickenlooper won easy 1 point 34. Montana: Steve Daines versus Steve Bullock Montana has been a Republican state since it joined the union. Normally that would mean that first term Senator Steve Daines could look forward to a series of easy elections until death. Daines was born in 1962, so death should be 2 elections off. However in Montana a Democrat who wins the people to him through charm and confidence can go a long way. Governor Steve Bullock has already gone a long way. Bullock was born in 1966 and should be good for 3 terms, starting this year. PREDICTION: DEMOCRAT STEVE BULLOCK UNSEATS STEVE DAINES CLOSE Daines 55-45 Daines beat Bullock easy, zero points 35. Alaska: Dan Sullivan versus Al Gross Finally we come to Alaska. First term Republican Dan Sullivan was born in 1964. Most people think Alaska is a red state because Republicans finish first in Presidential races every time, but the state is really purple. The people there respond to different stimuli and think differently than the rest of us. So a Democrat with the right personality might succeed. More importantly, an independent with an agenda is likely to make a race competitive. This year the Democrats of Alaska failed to find a candidate, so independent Al Gross is the top challenger. We can expect Gross to get respectable numbers, maybe even comparable to the average Alaska Democrat who loses. That's not close though. PREDICTION: REPUBLICAN DAN SULLIVAN BEATS AL GROSS EASY Sullivan 55-38 Sullivan won easy 2 points
That's 2 wrong winners: Bullock and Doug Collins, 32 winners with a chance Purdue will make it 33. I was right about close or easy 9 times, right 26 times. That's 58 points. I could be exactly right yet for 51-47-2 however the 2 Georgia runoffs will influence that. Not only that if Biden and Harris hold on to win the election she has to leave her Senate seat. She will then need to be replaced according to the laws of California. For a short time there will be one fewer Democrat in the Senate. Next comes a special election to replace her. It is not impossible a Republican or Independent could win that seat. That race joins this one with a chance for 2 more points. If it goes as expected the seat will remain in Democratic hands. There is a chance someone will leave the Senate by then to join the administration. That requires another special election which joins this cycle. One of these Senators or any other could leave the Senate because of death or resignation. This might not end until 2022. Incidentally the Arizona special election adds to the 2018 predictions and I lost a point.
50-48-2 is not the same as 50-50, so I can claim the 5 points for Republicans having the most. With only the Georgia runoffs I can at most be one off from 51-47-2 in either direction, so I can claim 4 of 5 points for the final number. 58 plus 9 gives me 67 of 80 possible points.
Republican senators had more votes in Georgia thus they should win the run off in January in a historically Republican state.
Today Mark Kelly joined the Senate today, bringing the totals to 52-46-2. Kelly was sworn in now because he won a special election (the seat held at the start of this term by John McCain). Kelly never doubted he would win the close election. It's almost as if he knew there was a box with about 50,000 extra votes for himself and Biden sitting around somewhere. So as the election approached he said that he should join the Senate the first business day after the election. He hoped to be there in time to vote against Amy Comey Barrett. In December he might get to vote on the second stimulus bill. That law will give one man a check for $1,000 as compensation for missing a chance to earn $100,000 because of economic shutdowns, while also giving $1,000 to a person who never does any work anyways. Of course we await the 2 runoffs in Georgia. For the special election I'm already wrong because my pick isn't in the runoff. For the other I still expect 1 point for the winner. We then anticipate that Kamala Harris will leave the Senate to become Vice President January 20. It is still possible that won't happen. While few doubt that Biden will get most of the 306 Electoral Votes assigned to him by most sources, Harris must also get those votes seperately. If no candidate gets 270 Electoral Votes for Vice President, the Senate decides which of the top 3 get the job as President of the Senate. (This happened in 1836.) it's a longshot, but Pence might keep his job while Trump does not. More likely, a special election in California will join this cycle, giving me a chance for 2 more points.
Kamala Harris will open another seat on the Senate but it's for California. Republicans have no chance at taking that seat.
That's right. ONE HAND WASHES THE OTHER: CA Dem Who Pushed Plum Contract to Biden-Linked Firm Tapped for Senate Seat. "If Gov. Newsom unilaterally appoints [Padilla] to serve the 40 million residents of this state based on his resume of a … partisan PR deal with taxpayer money, Americans can expect more of the same—no transparency, no accountability, and backroom deals," Republican state senate leader Shannon Grove said in a recent statement.
On Sunday the new Senators were sworn in. 2020 is the year of the old person, as the ages of the freshmen Senators reveals: John Hickenlooper 69. Tommy Tuberville 66 Cynthia Lumnis 66 Bill Hagerty 61 Roger Marshall 60 and the baby Ben Ray Lujan 48. Senators who were reelected swore in too, led by 86 year old Jim Inhofe. One person who was not sworn in Sunday was incumbent David Purdue, 71. He faces a runoff today against Jon Khrushchev, I mean Ossoff. That means the Senate temporarily stands at 51 Republicans (the number I predicted they'd end up with), 46 Democrats and 2 Independents.
Both Republican Senators in Georgia have conceded, so I have to concede that Jon khrushchev (I mean Ossoff) has defeated David Purdue against my prediction. (I already picked the wrong winner in the special election.) That makes me wrong about 3 of 35 elections, still my best in 4 attempts. When the Senate resumes-presently scheduled for January 19, both new Senators will likely be sworn in. That will bring the totals to 50 Republicans, 48 Democrats and 2 Independents. The next day, pending horrible events, Kamala Harris vacates her Senate seat to Become Vice President. That will cause a Democratic vacancy for a short time. The Governor has appointed a man named Padilla to take her place but that may take a short intermission. Please note, even when it becomes 50-48-2 Mitch McConnell will not become minority leader. Some of us can recall early this century when the Senate was split 50 Republicans and 50 Democrats. They split committee leadership. The standoff ended when Republican Jim Jeffords of Vermont turned Independent, giving the Democrats a 50-49-1 advantage.
On Monday Mrs. Emhoff resigned from the Senate so she can become President...of the Senate. Mr. Padilla awaits permission to join the Senate in her place. The Senate can refuse to let someone in and somebody might complain. So while they wait the Senate has 50 Republicans, 47 Democrats and 2 Independents. Apparently they haven't yet decided whether to hold a special election for the seat, since only 23 months remain in the term. Maybe they passed a law to make that optional the last 2 years back in 2013 when they expected Diane Feinstein to die during that term. If they do not hold a special election and Padilla joins the Senate before anything else changes this ends the 2020 Senate election season and ends my predictions with 67 of 80 points. Did anyone do better, including the last polls?
Last summer Mike Enzi died. He had a short retirement as Senator from Wyoming but did not die from an illness related to old age. He died in a bicycle crash. I was tempted to post about it but maybe couldn't find this forgotten thread.
I have to mention the death of Johnny Isakson last weekend. In 2016 I advised the man to retire as Senator from Georgia. He was 71 and suffering from Parkinsons. He ran again and won easily. His illness got to him and he retired at the end of 2019. He lived long enough to see the unfortunate results. Governor Kemp tried to make himself more popular with women in the misogynistic state, appointing Kelly Loeffler. The timing allowed the November election to double as the primary for the seat. Thanks to the madness, Loeffler lost the runoff to Rafael Warnock (in a late comeback) to drop the Republicans to a 50-48-2 minority (new math) and allowing a lot of pain he might have saved the country from. I have no doubt a Republican would have won in Georgia in 2016, so they would still hold a majority. I strongly suspect that if Warnock had not been on the ballot last November his most passionate supporters might have not voted. Then Perdue would have been on the high side of 50%, holding that 52nd seat. Also Trump would have won Georgia, saving the state a lot of aggravation, but Biden would still have won. Of course he could have held out for death even if he was rarely able to attend Senate hearings. Then we would get a brief drop to 50-47-2 before a return to 51-47-2. Some 50-49 votes might have drawn attention to the old man as he declined. In other words, Isakson should get a big scolding before they let him in Heaven. He dies while candidates are deciding whether to seek his old seat next year.
