Australia to acquire nuclear submarine fleet as part of historic deal with US & UK to counter Chin

France has elections in 6 months. Macron is playing the victim card. There will be tantrums for a while. France is notorious for this sort of behaviour. It will play well in France, but it doesn't really matter.

 

It is, but it sounds like it might be the right thing to do. It sounds like the contract was already in trouble. What I'm hearing is that the Australians over in France working to get this all started up were having some serious doubts.

The first was with the design. This boat was a French nuclear sub adapted to be conventional, and apparently the adapting process wasn't going well. The second was the division of work. Australia was supposed to be doing 60%, but there was push back on that. The third was the speed of the work - apparently the French idea of working quickly uses a different definition of 'fast' than we do.

We were only 5 years in and this whole thing was behind time & over budget and the design was troubled. That is basically a carbon copy of our last submarine build, which nobody enjoyed.

Personally I think we should have bought Japanese boats 10 years ago when they were on offer. Failing that, we should just buy a proven off the shelf rather than insist on building them ourselves. Sadly politics dictates a different approach.

 

Yeah and the reaction generally from Australia has been

 

Agreed. They got sucker punched, and they're shaking it off.

 

Or maybe France and the EU can't be trusted to support the US's policies regarding China?

Ian Lesser, vice-president of policy think tank The German Marshall Fund of the United States
suggests the European Union is pretty clear in terms of what it does not want, which goes to a third issue.
The EU does not want to be caught in the middle as things escalate: to have to choose, as he puts it, "between the United States and China in an increasingly fraught environment".
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-58600454

 

Good catch. I think you may be on to something.

I kinda feel pretty good about it, actually. Screw the EU. The Pacific Rim is where the future is at. Taiwan will certainly become a focus, but I think the prize can be bringing Indonesia into the West. I don't know how much the Muslim religion factors into Indonesians' attitudes about the West, but 275,000,000 people wanting a better life could be an opportunity for western style capitalism to flourish. I'm completely ignorant on Indonesian politics, so my ideas may be quite naive.

 

Australia has worked hard at trying to be a good neighbour to Indonesia - it can get rocky but I think they are more allies than enemies. Most importantly they know if they need us we will be there - war or natural devastation.

 

That's good to hear. Do you have trade deals? My interest would be in economic development. It's an enormous country, and from what I understand, somewhat poverty stricken. Does religion factor in at all? They're all Muslims, but they're a long way from Gaza.

 

Because we are the size of the mainland USA, have lots and lots of minerals and things and not a lot of people

 

Yes but think of the logistics in attempting to invade Australia. The point is that these subs are not a defensive measure, nuclear powered subs are for long distance surveillance which is why China is upset. One poster even suggested that these subs could be used to place mines in Chinese waters, that's hardly defensive, and pointless anyway

 

They are part of ASEAN which started as a mutual trade support group

https://www.dfat.gov.au/trade/agree...-comprehensive-economic-partnership-agreement

As for why they are Islamic - Arab traders had been visiting Indonesia and Malaysia since the 8th century BC

 

Don’t forget the impact with ASEAN. I would NOT be surprised if they deployed around the whole Indonesian/Malaysian archipelago. We also have a BIG mostly uninhabited coastline (well uninhabited on the west side). This is going to impact the entire region and I am pretty sure all the ASEAN countries phones are running red hot. We have strong ties with the pacific nations as well so a fleet of fast mostly silent subs might have some interesting uses not the least of which might be illegal fishing

 

Australians love Indonesia. And I know of two groups personally that are developinng land on both Bali and Java.

Now if they can just get Covid under control...

 

Our relationship with Indonesia has been very up and down over the years.

There was a lot of support here for Indonesian independence in the late 40s, but when the left wing Sukarno was in power we almost went to war wiht them in the late 50s over Irian Jaya and were effectively at war during the konfrontasi with Malaysia & Singpore. Government to government and military to military relations improved under Soeharto, but after the 1975 invasion of East Timor and subsequent genocide (similar scale to Pol Pot per capita) that was very much at odds with public opinion here. When US & Australian pressure finally saw a pro-independence vote in East Timor in 1999 the resultant carnage saw direct Austalian intervention and very nearly direct conflict with the Indonesian military.

Things have improved since then, with the occasional hiccup. Australia aid after the 2004 Boxing Day tsunami rebuilt a lot of bridges, not least because Australians not only risked their lives, but several died helping out. The move to democracy has generally been a positive thing, though it also means that little things can blow up if there is a big public outcry somewhere. People to people relationships are good. Lots of Indonesians have studied in Australia for decades and Australians frequently holiday in Indonesia, though that can be a mixed blessing in the same way that US tourism to Mexico is. Bali to Australia as Cancun is to the US to a considerable extent.

There are also shared concerns about China's expansio nin the region, and Indonesia has had numerous confrontations wiht China over fishing rights. We consider them a key strategic partner & they us.

Islam is tricky issue. Traditionally Islam in most parts of Indonesia has been pretty moderate and the secular philosphy of Indonesia's founders backed that up. Mates of mine who have worked there were surprised by the drinking & pork consumption. However, that is changing. Over the past 40 years the Saudis have been funding a LOT of religious schools pushing their poisonous version of Islam. While this version was always strong in Aceh (the western end of Sumatra) it has spread relentlessly over the past few decades and is now a real force in Indonesian politics. That may create some serious issues over the next few decades.

 

Good summation - thanks mate!

 

Thanks. I'm sure I left some stuff out, but I hope it helps those unfamiliar with the relationship.

 

China is building nuclear subs so what gives them the right be angry Australia is getting them? China is probably angry because now Australia will be able to track China's subs over a long period of time. Knowing where China's sub are located can be a very effective defense against an attack by China. Australia is a large continent with many resources for China. For the US Australia is strategically located close to China and the hotly disputed China Sea. During WW2 Japan successfully invaded China which was a huge logistics undertaking.

https://www.military.com/daily-news...lia-build-nuclear-submarines-china-looms.html

The Chinese navy has built 12 nuclear subs over the past 15 years, according to the Defense Department's last annual China report in 2020. Its four operational Jin-class subs can launch ballistic missiles and represent the country's "first credible sea-based nuclear deterrent."

President Xi Jinping ordered faster growth of China's nuclear-powered ballistic missile sub fleet, and a next-generation sub to be constructed in the early 2020s could carry a new type of ballistic missile, the department reported.

 

China is a long way from Australia. China will not attempt to invade Australia. The rest of your post is nothing to do with the claim that nuclear powered subs are needed for a defense against an invasion. Conventional subs can do that much more efficiently. These nuclear powered subs are not nuclear armed, they will clearly be used to survey goings on in seas of China. Is there anything wrong with this? No, every major country does that

 

Dey still real mad...

Jilted France Accuses Australia of ‘Treason’, Calls Britain a U.S. ‘Vassal’
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/20...tralia-of-treason-calls-britain-a-u-s-vassal/

 

The nuclear subs have more to do with China's growing military in the China Sea aka manmade islands. Conventional are more easily detected as they need to come up for air. I made the point that Australia is strategically located to the China Sea and Australia with nuclear powered subs can track Chinese nuclear subs much better as they can stay under just as long. And I am well aware the subs will not be equipped with nuclear missiles because they don't need to be.

Now this is funny coming from NK who already is in a nuclear race.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58621056
Aukus could trigger a 'nuclear arms race', says North Korea

 

Then they should have honoured the contract

 

The contract should have included benchmarks and if not met Australia would legally be able to walk away from it.

 

It did - apparently the French were ignoring them

https://www.theguardian.com/austral...-the-french-submarine-plan-for-the-aukus-pact

But we are talking a “Liberal” government here and that means they are as right wing as an Aus government gets

 

A point of clarification. These submarines are attack submarines. Their targets are adversaries' ships, especially adversaries' nuclear missile submarines. They are therefore appropriate defensive weapons.
Invasion is not the principal Chinese threat. The threat is China attempting to cow Australia into a subservient regional role.

 

Wow sounding like Trump.