COVID-19 Research, Drug trials and Pathophysiology

Discussion in 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) News' started by Bowerbird, Apr 13, 2020.

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  1. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Today Mrs. Hays and I received our Pfizer first dose shots. Second dose 20 February. It is worth pausing to give thanks for the massive effort that produced this result.
     
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  2. Sallyally

    Sallyally Well-Known Member Donor

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    Welcome to capitalism.
     
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  3. CenterField

    CenterField Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Thanks for your kind words earlier on, Tiger2.

    I am for opening schools, at least pre-K, K, and elementary school, if not middle school too. I think the risks and benefits balance for the children favors the benefits. Children elementary school-age and younger are at a minimum risk, and to show how this is all more emotional than factual (regarding children), it is sufficient to see that the risk for children of dying from Covid-19 contracted at school is actually smaller than that for endemic infectious diseases like TB and meningitis, and we don't close schools because there is a small degree of TB and meningitis endemically circulating among the population. So, from the risks side of the equation, they are tiny. Now, the benefits for children of attending school are several, psychologically, socially, cognitively, and even health-wise, as many disadvantaged kids depend on schools for healthy meals and school nursing checks. As for risks for the teachers, they are probably at more risk of contracting the virus in the community and from their colleagues, than from the children. Also, they perform an essential activity and just like doctors and nurses don't shy away from the risks (infinitely bigger) and continue to perform, school teachers should do their part too. Much more now that there are available vaccines. Vaccinate the school teachers and reopen the schools, dammit!

    As for what you said earlier that here across the pond we seem to value the economy more than the lives of our fellow Americans, it is unfortunately true. This said, public officials need to reach a balance between economic damage and pandemic control. It is true that damaging the economy too much also has consequences, including health consequences (people committing suicide, abusing substances more, losing health insurance, eating poorly, etc.). It is also true that an out-of-control pandemic hurts the economy much more than any lockdowns... not to forget the enduring economic hit of having to deal for years, even decades, with the sequelae of Covid-19 and their long-term complications, which will hinder life expectancy and productivity, and result in ongoing healthcare costs. Anyway, it's a complex issue and it is not easy to find a happy medium. I don't envy politicians who need to deal with this, and will need to deal with the aftermath.

    This happy medium would be much better achieved if like in Japan, 97% of our population were serious about wearing masks, social distancing, etc.; unfortunately 30% to 50% of our population are terrible about these things. So we get the worst of two worlds: economic damage, and uncontrolled pandemic. No wonder we are #5 from the bottom up, among 98 countries in the matter of efficiency and quality of our pandemic response, only above Iran, Mexico, Colombia, and Brazil.
     
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  4. CenterField

    CenterField Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Great; I'm happy for you and Mrs. Hays. Do continue to be careful, though; a couple of the new variants (B.1.351 and P.1) seem to be less susceptible to vaccine-induced antibodies so until the chain of transmission is truly broken, even vaccinated people should remain prudent.
     
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  5. Tigger2

    Tigger2 Well-Known Member

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    @CenterField
    I think we pretty much agree on everything raised here.
    Now in the UK we are being told we might stay in lockdown even after all the at risk are vaccinated :confused:. The reason given is that we don't know if you can still pass on the virus after your vaccinated.
    I just don't get it, if everyone at risk of serious illness and death is vaccinated and those not vaccinated don't get ill when they catch it, then just who would anyone be passing the virus on to ???
     
  6. CenterField

    CenterField Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Tigger2, post #504 above has a reason for being prudent even after vaccination... but you are right that keeping a country completely locked down after all who are at risk have been vaccinated appears to be excessive. Do remember, though, that many people can be vulnerable without knowing it. For example, it is known that hypertension makes Covid-19 worse. It is estimated that 100 million Americans suffer from hypertension but not all of them even know that they have this problem.

    Still, there should be a happy medium like I was saying. I'd say that if you really pursue energetically and successfully vaccination of all people at risk (the elderly, the infirm - at least those known to be infirm, front-line workers of various kinds - and this includes grocery workers, truck drivers, etc., not just doctors and nurses and first responders) it would be reasonable, for the sake of the economy, to ease restrictive measures that can choke an economy.

    This said, do realize that even young and healthy people can have lasting consequences of even asymptomatic Covid-19; it's been shown for example that college athletes (can't get any younger and healthier than that, in a population) who recovered even from asymptomatic Covid-19 were left in high numbers (if I recall correctly, at least 30% of them) with inflammatory myocarditis (an inflammation of the muscle fibers of the heart that can silently evolve to fatal heart failure). It is still early to know the full consequences of having had a bout of Covid-19, even in asymptomatic subjects.

    Also, it is suspected, although not confirmed, that two of the new variants, the South African B.1.351 and the Brazilian P.1, might be more dangerous to young and healthy people than the previous variants.
     
  7. Tigger2

    Tigger2 Well-Known Member

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    I agree other groups are vulnerable to a degree, but the numbers don't lie over 90% of those who have been hospitalised or died were over 79 years. In the UK we are vaccinated first 15m (by 14the feb) are Care workers, frontline, over 70's, extremely vulnerable. I wouldn't mind waiting until the next group (the vulnerable) 8m are done as well, but all through the summer, no way.

    As for the risks to the young, we are looking at a very small group, We know cars kill children, but we accept some risk so society can function.
     
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  8. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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  9. Montegriffo

    Montegriffo Well-Known Member

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    Then what?
    If an asteroid is heading towards Earth are you going to waste your time trying to find out where it came from or are you going to try to mitigate the damage instead?
    Plenty of time to assign ''blame'' later, there are more important things to worry about right now.
     
  10. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    This is not about blame. It is about understanding the nature and origin of the problem confronting us. As the Post concludes:

    ". . . On Feb. 3, the WHO team investigating the origins of the virus visited the WIV. We do not know what was said. But the goal must be to open the closed doors at the institute. If the WIV had no role in sparking the outbreak, it should be relatively straightforward for Dr. Shi to safely open up the databases to scientists so they can properly understand the evolutionary origins of SARS-CoV-2. The institute should provide all records regarding bat samples, viruses and sequences, with verified information provenance, and eventually, it should be disclosed to all. The origin of the pandemic is of interest to every person on the globe.

    We don’t know where the pandemic began. But a major step toward finding the answer is to examine all the relevant databases and laboratory records, including those at the Wuhan Institute of Virology and elsewhere, and the clues they may hold."
     
  11. Montegriffo

    Montegriffo Well-Known Member

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    Meh, it's just WAPO clickbait hiding behind a paywall.
    You don't get to blame Trump's appalling handling of the pandemic on a Chinese lab working to research dangerous pandemics. There's no evidence it escaped from a lab and plenty of evidence that it was not man made.
    You're just shouting " look squirrel" and I'm not falling for it.
     
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  12. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Actually there was a pretty good bit of investigative journalism not long ago (New York magazine) that made the case for a lab escape origin.

    Did the Coronavirus Escape From a Lab? - New York Magazine
    nymag.com › intelligencer › article › coronavirus-lab-esc...

    Jan 4, 2021 — ... of preventing a pandemic, not causing one. Nicholson Baker examines the evidence that the COVID-19 coronavirus escaped from a lab.
     
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2021
  13. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Since I voted against Trump twice your attempt at deflection fails. The lab escape thesis can't be proved, but can't be ruled out either. Only the fearful argue against research. I'm a WAPO subscriber.
     
  14. Tigger2

    Tigger2 Well-Known Member

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    It'll be the b****y Chinese, they just sent a rocket up, what more proof do you need. ;)
     
  15. CenterField

    CenterField Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I've already debunked that article. The "opinion" that it may have escaped a lab comes from scientists in other fields; some utterly misinformed (like the endocrinologist that uttered a bunch of nonsense) while all true virologists say and know that this virus is not man-made, including in that article. Why do you suppose that all true virologists say one thing, and all the idiots saying the opposite are not virologists??? Don't forget, even if journalistically speaking the piece is good, the goal of a journalist is primarily to increase clicks and print sales... so they will be delighted to print the nonsensical words of a freaking endocrinologist who is willing to say sensationalist stuff. The credibility of that guy's *opinion* is not even zero, it is minus ten. There's a reason why I don't issue opinions on endocrinology matters... that guy should't issue opinions on virology either. Stay on your lane, is what I'd tell him.
     
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2021
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  16. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Disagreement =/= Debunking. Sorry, but the question remains open.
    And until the Chinese come clean it will remain open. Please see WaPo editorial posted at #508.
    I assume you've seen this.
    The genetic structure of SARS‐CoV‐2 does not rule out a ...
    onlinelibrary.wiley.com › doi › full › bies.202000240

    Nov 17, 2020 — Abstract Severe acute respiratory syndrome‐coronavirus (SARS‐CoV)‐2′s origin is still controversial. Genomic analyses show SARS‐CoV‐2 ...
    by R Segreto · ‎Cited by 4 · ‎Related articles
    Abstract · ‎INTRODUCTION · ‎CRITIQUE OF “THE... · ‎HOW COULD THE VIRUS...
     
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2021
  17. CenterField

    CenterField Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    OK, no, I hadn't. Yes, maybe you're right and I stand corrected. This doesn't rule it in either, but while chimeras can occur naturally, you do have a point that this requires further investigation. I shouldn't have been so closed in my opinion. It's always best to keep an open mind. Thanks.
     
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2021
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  18. Chrizton

    Chrizton Well-Known Member

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    Good luck with dose no. 2. There is a growing body of evidence that it is making people sick even though they didn't have any adverse reaction to the first shot.
     
  19. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    The Washington Post notes the question of laboratory origin remains open.

    The WHO investigation into the coronavirus origin must be free of China’s meddling

    ". . . Chinese authorities covered up the early indications of spreading disease. Then they waged an aggressive propaganda campaign that denied the virus could have come from a laboratory accident, while pointing the finger at other countries as a virus source, and claiming it could have been imported into China on contaminated frozen food packaging, which many scientists doubt. China dragged its feet on accepting a WHO investigating team, and when they finally arrived, China closely managed what they were told. . . .
    Distressingly, members of the WHO experts group seemed to echo the Chinese narrative in a Feb. 9 Wuhan news conference. . . .
    The laboratory leak possibility is unproved, but has attracted attention because researchers at the Wuhan Institute of Virology were conducting “gain of function” research on bat coronaviruses similar to the virus that triggered the global pandemic. This research can be dangerous and involves modifying genomes to give viruses new properties. The institute has a large collection of virus samples and sequences that are contained in databases that might offer clues to the virus origins, and a possible laboratory source. The WHO visited the institute, where it was assured that the pandemic virus did not come from its laboratories. Such a reassurance is entirely insufficient. . . . "
     
  20. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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  21. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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  22. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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  23. Tigger2

    Tigger2 Well-Known Member

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  24. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    That too. Follow wherever the evidence leads. I'm not aware of any Italian attempt to block inquiries.
     
  25. Tigger2

    Tigger2 Well-Known Member

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    I'm not aware of a Chinese attempt to block enquiries.
     

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