Is herd immunity ahead of schedule?

Discussion in 'Coronavirus Pandemic Discussions' started by Eleuthera, Sep 9, 2020.

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  1. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

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    Swedish Ambassador Says Stockholm Expected To Reach ...
    https://www.npr.org › 2020/04/26 › stockholm-expected-t...


    Apr. 26, 2020 — Sweden has employed a controversial coronavirus response strategy of ... Swedish Ambassador Says Stockholm Expected To Reach 'Herd Immunity' In May 2020

    -------------

    Mr. Eleuthera, in reference to the Ambassador's herd immunity ''assumption'', based on real science, or pseudoscience, or whatever;

    Here was my response;

    ''Bottom line; A natural herd immunity strategy would be politically hard to implement in the U.S., especially during an election year''

    ------------------

    Indisputable fact; Whether true or false, Trump repeated the following ''Imperial College Estimate'' at least 50 times;

    2.2 million would have died ''if we did nothing''

    Question; What about an estimated natural herd immunity death toll of ONE million?

    Answer; Still politically hard to implement, and during an election year, political suicide

    Question; What about an estimated death toll of 500,000?

    Answer; Last March, political suicide.

    In addition, Trump's VERY GOOD JOB death toll figures; Initially, under 100,000, and then, between 100,000 and 200,000.

    Agree or disagree?
     
    Last edited: Apr 29, 2021
  2. fmw

    fmw Well-Known Member

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    I think we can quit striving for herd immunity. We will do well to strive for herd reduction in cases to a low level. This virus and its strains aren't going anywhere.
     
  3. Eleuthera

    Eleuthera Well-Known Member Donor

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    Herd immunity plays without human government intervention. It is a natural process.

    Herd stupidity can be manipulated and increased by way of propaganda and the manipulation of public perceptions.

    Herds come to their senses only on the individual level, one by one, and very slowly.

    Standing in line to take an experimental and dangerous shot that has never before been used on humans, against a virus with a 99% survival rate, against a virus with many known effective treatments, is a clear display of herd stupidity. Was that stupidity developed by way of fear mongering? No doubt.
     
  4. Quantum Nerd

    Quantum Nerd Well-Known Member

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    An old thread, that posited herd immunity could be reached at a threshold as low as 10-20%. Of course, peddled by the RW.

    Now, how did that turn out? Not very well.

    It is important to hold the RW accountable for the disinformation that they peddle every day. If this is not done, the false info just gets forgotten, as if nothing happened. Then, the next day, some other false info is peddled as the truth, with facts going unchecked. Unfortunately, too many people believe that kind of stuff, and even perpetuate it by copy pasting in forums like this one.
     
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  5. fmw

    fmw Well-Known Member

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    Most of the estimates I read were in the area of 80%. But I suppose one person saying 10-20% can launch the partisan attack against the everybody.
     
  6. Pro_Line_FL

    Pro_Line_FL Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Safe to say it was not ahead of schedule since you made the claim well over a year ago.
     
  7. Hotdogr

    Hotdogr Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    If one cannot achieve individual immunity, it stands to reason that herd immunity is therefore impossible.
     
  8. 557

    557 Well-Known Member

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    Actually the theoretical 20% figures were based on formal modeling studies using information on R0 etc. at the time. None of the studies I discussed with other members like Centerfield were RW origin. They were from top epidemiologists. Here are a couple examples.

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full.pdf

    https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/science.abc6810
     
  9. Quantum Nerd

    Quantum Nerd Well-Known Member

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    I agree that the 20% estimate didn't originate from the RW, but these numbers were utilized by the RW to further the agenda that covid was not a big deal and just like the flu, and that herd immunity would save the day very quickly. If you go back to this thread, I actually contributed to it, pointing to the original papers, rather than the spin of the posters, who tried to use it for political gain. Guess which side of the political spectrum these posters were from?
     
  10. 557

    557 Well-Known Member

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    It came from the rival tribe to the tribe that thought 50% of Covid infected individuals had to be hospitalized and made Covid look worse than it was for political gain. It came from the tribe opposed to the tribe that believed and defend the CDC and NIH outright lying about availability of quality masks for 9 months. It came from the tribe opposed to the tribe that believes cloth masks are superior to N95 equivalent quality masks because someone said so even when there was NO evidence to support the idea. It came from the tribe opposed to the tribe that wants others to protect them when they aren’t willing to take steps to protect themselves. It came from the tribe opposed to the tribe that is benefiting from a degree of herd immunity provided by natural infection but doesn’t seem to be able to accept that fact even today.

    Have you ever taken a moment to consider 20-30% of vaccinees likely have hybrid immunity that is superior to vaccination alone and that 20-30% of unvaccinated also likely have natural immunity that is more effective at decreasing viral load in reinfections than vaccines are at decreasing viral loads in breakthrough infections?

    Since this thing started I’ve told people not to denigrate immunity from natural infection because it would make up a large portion of whatever level of herd immunity we ended up with. That’s how it’s turning out. Even though it’s turning out Covid is going to end up much like the flu (especially influenza B) in respect to herd immunity, the herd immunity we all hoped for when all we had was Wuhan and Alpha variant isn’t going to happen. It’s too bad but it’s reality. The 70% number based on historical theory and the 20-50% modeled numbers based on heterogeneity of populations both turned out to be incorrect. Now we have to live with the reality that unless you have a good immune system, get vaccinated every three months, wear a quality mask, and practice some social distancing, it’s likely you will be infected at some point. Thankfully we have vaccines, therapies, and soon antivirals that can mitigate damage from infection.

    Does the RW believe some crazy stuff that can/did lead to unnecessary death? Yep. Does the LW believe some crazy stuff that that can/did lead to unnecessary death. Yep. I think it would be more helpful to reform the institutions that distributed mis/disinformation under the auspices of “expertise” and “authority” than focus on more tribal warfare.

    Sorry for the rant. You are correct there have been nutty claims from the right. But the right doesn’t have a monopoly on nutty beliefs on Covid and I'm not sure why they should be held responsible but not others.
     
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  11. independentthinker

    independentthinker Banned

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    The mistake the left make is in thinking that there is such a thing as herd immunity with the Delta variant. There is not. And there isn't with Omicron either. 100% of everyone exposed to enough of the virus will get the virus, at least asymptomatically, which I think now means you actually have symptoms but don't actually wind up in the hospital or die. In the old days asymptomatic meant you didn't have any symptoms.
     
  12. truth and justice

    truth and justice Well-Known Member

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    So many errors in just a short post ^
     
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  13. independentthinker

    independentthinker Banned

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    Then why did you make it?
     
  14. Eleuthera

    Eleuthera Well-Known Member Donor

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    Because the shots effectively destroy the immune system of the person injected, and because about half the population has now been injected, about half the population have damaged immune systems. IMO that means that herd immunity might be difficult.

    When individuals do not have damaged immune systems, humans in nature as it were, herd immunity is a naturally occurring process. Herd immunity has served herds of all sorts very well over the eons, it's how we adapt to pathogens.

    After the shots, all bets are off. The DNA has been changed, as the perps intended.
     

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