It 'feels like a recession' to a lot of people: ANZ

Discussion in 'Australia, NZ, Pacific' started by scarlet witch, Oct 24, 2019.

  1. scarlet witch

    scarlet witch Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Apparently there have been a banking liquidity problem recently, the last time that happened was 2008. Strangely or not so strangely, this event was about the same time we experienced the deep drop in business. Things have dramatically picked up again and a customer of mine who sells golf carts yesterday said he is up to his shoulders in sales... touching wood.

    https://www.spartareport.com/2019/09/repo-agreements-a-liquidity-crisis-banking-system/
     
  2. billy the kid

    billy the kid Well-Known Member

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    Dont know if the golf industry is going that well...
    A family member of mine has been in the golf industry for 30 years and he is not optimistic about
    the future. Golf pros in NSW regularly tell him that golf clubs are going broke, and are all looking
    at ways and means of balancing the books...such as taking the hire of golf carts off the pros, taking the ball comps off the pros..some have sacked the pro completely..others are not maintaining the courses and members are leaving in droves...juniors are not taking up the game as they have other things to do...and its too expensive....
    Of course, this is just one industry...I have a mate who has been in the motor industry all his life...he states
    that the most reliable indicator for the economy is car sales...one only has to look at car sales world wide to see that they are slowing down everywhere....
    I started a thread once comparing the future to the 1929 depression....
    My only comment now is believe what you want to believe....as always....
    Youre either an optimist, a pessimist, or......a realist....
     
  3. m2catter

    m2catter Well-Known Member

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    Well ,
    I think we are in a recession since 2006/2008, and we haven't learned our lesson yet. Our nation was on a roll for a good thirty years, however towards the end of the Howard era thinks became more brittle. Yes the US might have started the gfc, but to the same degree we were and are still relying on this endless growth.
    We (even to this day) are still hopeful, the mining dollars never end. Despite a clear trend of the first world countries to stop global warming we still dig holes and sell coal (environmental concerns don't play any role in our thinking, jobs always come first).
    I really believe once we shift away from that dirty business things will improve.
    We might not be a hightec country, but we have things others don't. Sunshine in abundance, and sort of clean oceans plus an often unspoiled environment.
    We could start creating energy on a big scale and desalt water. Food needs water to grow, we could become the bread basket of the southern hemisphere. Energy could be transferred to other neighboring countries. Yes these things go hand in hand with losses, that's the nature of the game.
    Yet we are held back by useless governments, the current to be another example. The average Joe is not spending his money, because the future doesn't look bright. Libs and Nationals need to go, and Labor needs to have a good look in a mirror, as they aren't much better...
    Our future starts, when coal comes to an end. And no, I wouldn't sell China an inch of our land.
    Reg.
     
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  4. Sallyally

    Sallyally Well-Known Member Donor

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    Hear, hear.
     
  5. scarlet witch

    scarlet witch Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Actually these golf cars are used at retirement villages and by cleaners at resorts to cart around bedding and cleaning materials, even at schools for functions.
     
  6. truthvigilante

    truthvigilante Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Most golf carts would be sold to people within golfing industry you’d think!
     
  7. truthvigilante

    truthvigilante Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    You are on the money. Golf clubs are now hanging onto golf carts well past 5 years of age as well! Golf is an expensive and time consuming game in any instance. Memberships for school aged is quite low though. I know of many who are shopping around for the cheapest memberships and have been members of certain clubs for years. Maybe golf is the new measuring stick for our economic woes ; )
     
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  8. scarlet witch

    scarlet witch Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Sallyally likes this.
  9. scarlet witch

    scarlet witch Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    rumours abound the RBA will start Quantitative Easing mid next year, was reading about all the poor single mothers being preyed on by loan sharks, money is scarce, wages are stagnating, debt is sky high and house prices just keep climbing.

    Speculation is rife Australia is about to start printing money, as RBA governor Philip Lowe prepares to speak on quantitative easing
    https://www.businessinsider.com.au/rba-philip-lowe-quantitative-easing-speech-2019-11
     
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  10. Sallyally

    Sallyally Well-Known Member Donor

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    [​IMG]
    Dr Mohamed El-Erian says investors should undertake some portfolio "regret minimisation".(ABC News)

    One of the world's most influential investors says a crash is coming and central banks are impotent to protect against it. He also has significant concerns about Australia's future.

    Key points:
    • Dr Mohamed El-Erian grew PIMCO's assets under management to $US2 trillion
    • He told The Business that, beyond a certain point, ultra-low interest rates distort well-functioning economies and markets
    • Dr El-Erian says the US-China trade war could be a significant risk to Australia's economy
    When Mohamed El-Erian speaks, Wall Street listens. While chief investment officer of the fabled global trading powerhouse PIMCO, he grew it from managing $US1 trillion ($1.46 trillion) of funds to $US2 trillion.

    He is now chief economic advisor at global financial giant Allianz, which bought out PIMCO, and has an estimated personal fortune of $2.4 billion.
     
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  11. scarlet witch

    scarlet witch Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    How did we get here? From Lucky country to country ripe for socialist and communist ideology. Is that how they do it, the globalists... they manipulate via media, stir unrest with their NGO's, overthrow, corrupt, push inequality to unprecedented heights then let the discontent fester and sow the seeds of socialism and communism... clearly the overthrow wasn't even required in Australia as in 100's of other countries.
     
  12. Sallyally

    Sallyally Well-Known Member Donor

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    John Howard and Jeff Kennett.
     
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  13. scarlet witch

    scarlet witch Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    They are useful idiots... tools
     
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  14. scarlet witch

    scarlet witch Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I agree with Matt Barrie on bringing manufacture back... creating industry, turning raw materials into higher end product, like lithium batteries, hydrogen, steel aluminium, chemicals and bio-products. Australia have the brainpower to get this done. South Africa in the 1950's started this process and built industry that weathered international sanctions for years, lifted millions out of poverty and unfortunately was destroyed by the ANC government at the cost of the black middle class who inherited these industries. However the blueprint proves it works.

     
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  15. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Notice how there was never any asset bubble in the rural areas further out. It's all concentrated in the overcrowded areas where there are too many people and limited space.
    That's not unusual. Asset bubbles usually are not prone to happening unless there's something in scarce supply.
     
    Last edited: Feb 29, 2020
  16. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    As of February 2020, from what I'm reading in the news, it seems like there's a lot of people who think Australia is "teetering on the edge of a recession".
    Forecasts are that this will turn out to be the worst year since 1991 (when the country was in a recession).

    Australian households are already under a lot of debt, and consumers are tapped out.
    Again, this is very reminiscent of what preceded the US recession.

    Business investment is weak, which is a sign that businesses don't expect sales to go up. There are beginning to be signs of rising unemployment, which looks like it may be bad, but it's still too premature to tell for sure where that will be going.

    Right now, the Australian economy is essentially growing at the same rate as the population growth, which means that individual standards of living are not going to grow.
     
    Last edited: Feb 29, 2020
  17. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Australian economy: Households to face slow wage growth

    January 31, 2020

    Australian households will face another year of slow wages growth and growing unemployment, with little respite for businesses as the global economy struggles despite ultra-low interest rates.

    That's the view of a panel of 21 of the nation's top market, academic and industry analysts in The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age annual Scope survey. The survey shows deep concerns about the domestic and global economy even before the full impact of the coronavirus outbreak is known, and with months left in the bushfire season.​
     
    Last edited: Feb 29, 2020
  18. scarlet witch

    scarlet witch Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    In Australia there's an asset bubble even in rural areas.
     
  19. billy the kid

    billy the kid Well-Known Member

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    I noticed recently that the Senate has approved of Morrisons cash ban.
    Only a matter of time before we are all locked into Banks with digital currency our only
    means of money usage...if the Fed had not bailed out the Repo gig in the US last year, the entire planet
    would be in a recession by now...when interest rates go lower, all the small banks will be swallowed
    by the larger banks, and when the larger banks bleat to the Central Banks for bailouts the answer will be no.
    Its all about control, and banks bail ins of depositors funds will occur.
    A cash ban on certain transactions over $10K is just the beginning...
    As the limit is set out in the Regs it only requires the Treasurers approval to reduce the
    limit to say $2K...no need to go to Parliament....
    Its only a matter of time.
    Asset bubbles are like chickenman…..he's everywhere...he's everywhere.....:applause:
     
  20. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Since the financial crisis, property prices in Sydney and Melbourne have risen 105 per cent and 94 per cent respectively. Private debt-to-GDP, which includes all household and corporate debt, has increased from 184 per cent of GDP in 2010 to 205 per cent today. Household debt is more than 200 per cent of average incomes, making Australian households some of the most indebted in the world.

    As major cities have boomed, those areas less reliant on the finance, insurance and real estate (FIRE) economy have stagnated. Sydney alone produces nearly a quarter of the nation's GDP, with Melbourne responsible for another 20 per cent. Wealth inequality has risen significantly and stagnant wages and rising profits have led the Australian Council of Trade Unions (ACTU) to conclude that Australia is facing US levels of inequality.

    Wandering around the conference I was attending, there was a palpable sense of disappointment in the air. In allowing the boom to continue as long as they have, Australia’s political and economic elites have clearly prioritised short-term profits over the nation’s long-term economic health. ​

    https://www.newstatesman.com/world/...avent-been-learned+&cd=14&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us
     
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  21. billy the kid

    billy the kid Well-Known Member

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    Australias politicians both state and federal have been incompetent for decades....
     
  22. scarlet witch

    scarlet witch Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Yes I agree, those in power fell asleep at the wheel, or perhaps with a PM like we had in Malcolm Turnbull... an ex investment banker, it was deliberate.
     
    Last edited: Mar 1, 2020

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