The Unique US Failure to Control the Virus

This is one of the most complete analyses I've read, of why we're doing poorly in our attempt to control our share of the COVID-19 pandemic.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/06/us/coronavirus-us.html

I am sure some people here will shoot the messenger and refuse to consider anything coming out the New York Times, but sincerely, regardless of the source, the article makes a large number of excellent points (while also having shortcomings as I'll detail soon). It is long and detailed but worthy of careful exploration and deep thinking about the points made.

Right wingers here will dismiss the article entirely because of its decisive anti-Trump tone. I think they have a point in some regards, given that the article completely skips over some of Trump's positive moves: the Warp Speed vaccine initiative, securing for America the world's stock of remdesivir, threatening to use the Defense Production Act to strong arm some reluctant companies to make more ventilators and more N95 respirators, sending a Navy Hospital Ship to New York, and they also do not mention the times when Trump did say that the virus is very dangerous and vicious (his exact words) and the fact that lately Trump did warm up to the idea of masks.

But the article also clearly blames NYC's Democratic mayor De Blasio, and partially blames Democratic governor Cuomo. It also blames the WHO's wishy-washy statements, and points to failures in other countries, too. So the article is not entirely partisan. Still, I'd have much preferred a more balanced tone, including some positive sides of Trump's response, too. It is indeed suspicious that the article only highlights successes in the case of Cuomo's late response (while I think that Cuomo screwed up so badly especially with the nursing home crisis, that his later better performance doesn't really endear him to me - one may say he came up with some fixes, but they were fixes for a mess that he contributed to creating).

Where I think that the article is correct, is that the failures it highlights DID happen and WERE serious, regardless of the blame game.

So if instead of the partisan tone, we rather take from this article this message: "what went wrong?" then I'd say that the article is mostly accurate. Then, we might be able to, as a people, either take some measures to make it better, or at least learn with the mistakes and be prepared to do better when inevitably some other outbreak of some other infectious disease comes up in the future (they always do; in the history of humankind these things come and go).

 

What went wrong?

-People don't like wearing masks
-People like to socialize
-People think the others will do the dying, until it hits themselves

I didn't have faith in humans as rational thinkers before covid. After covid, I am convinced, as a whole, humans are no more intelligent than bacteria growing in a Petri dish.

 

Well, humans in some other countries didn't seem to be as boneheaded and as ignorant as some humans we have here in America... I blame our political divisiveness more than anything. We got half of the country thinking that this is a conspiracy and that wearing masks is some sort of slavery, and even worse, the ONE real solution we may be able to get, a safe and effective vaccine, is likely to be rejected by two thirds of the population, thus not putting an end to the contagion, and perpetuating the economic damage.

Given that we've failed so badly in everything else, our only hope is the vaccine, but we need the opposite, we need two thirds of the population taking it, in order to achieve herd immunity. I am less than hopeful for this rate, given that even the flu shot, which has not been associated with a political divide (except for the crazy anti-vaxxers but those are a fringe minority), is not accepted by more than 50% of our population.

I saw in the news (didn't retain the link) that the Trump Administration is preparing a HUGE vaccination campaign with ads on TV and all, for November and December. hoping to get people to accept it in large numbers so that they start vaccinating people in December and January. I hope they do it, and that they keep it up regardless of the result of the election. I could see Trump losing and suddenly cancelling the whole thing, thinking that if a vaccine succeeds it will boost the Biden Administration. Given how he systematically tried to undo everything that Obama did, without even being defeated by him, I can see him in his narcissism getting very enraged if he loses to Biden, and doing his best to sabotage the Biden Administration.

I mean, first things first. We first need to see if a vaccine will succeed in phase 3 and be truly deemed safe and effective. I'm still very hopeful for a vaccine. It's the only sector that still makes me hopeful.

 

What went wrong?

A lack of leadership from start to finish

 

Our local numbers were sort of static with slight upticks for quite awhile. The two big "outbreaks" if you will were the couple weeks when the stimulus checks first started getting direct deposited and then an absolute disaster after first week of july and everybody went on vacation (my city practically shuts down that week) and brought it back with them.

 

I dunno, this is what happens when you try to corral people who have freedom. Is that a bad word now?

 

And it's not finished yet.

 

Not at all. I love freedom. What the article is saying is that in the particular case of us having to face a pandemic, which is better fought off with united and concerted actions, our freedom is backfiring on us.

But I think the two concepts are not incompatible. We could still be enjoying our freedoms, and fighting this off together, if we acted voluntarily. In all my posting here since I've joined (and elsewhere before I joined here) I've always posted against any mandatory measure. What I favor is an educational campaign, and then let every free American decide what to do.

I read somewhere that the Japanese government never had to impose any mandatory measure. They simply had to ask their population, and 98% of them said yes and cooperated. Good luck trying this, here. In our divided politics, if half of the country wants something, the other half will try to undo and sabotage, and vice-versa.

 

I agree with you, I think. Take seatbelt laws. I agree with seatbelts. I don't agree it should be a law. I would prefer the government suggest it with PSA's describing the pro's and cons. Similar with most anything.

 

Sure, other countries did much better than the US, but many are also battling with the second wave.

I think the propensity of people to defy government authority is much higher in the US than in other countries. If the government tells you to wear a mask, the first reaction is not to wear one. That's what we get for decades of mistrust in government, fostered by forces that aim to dismantle the government. For example, a president saying "Government is not the solution to our problem, government is the problem." doesn't help people to obey government orders, even if they make actual sense.

Second, people in the US seem to be much worse in delaying gratification than people in other countries. One manifestation is the inability of Americans to save. Another one is needing a haircut NOW, or having to go to the bar NOW, instead of doing the right thing and delaying the urge until the pandemic is under control.

Of course, poor leadership just amplifies these problems.

 

Absolutely. Including drugs of abuse, etc. They famously did it in Portugal: all drugs of abuse have been decriminalized in Portugal for the last 9 years or so, I think they started in 2011. They used the money they were previously spending with prosecuting and jailing the drug addicts (then they had to pay for their meals and upkeep and what not) to build and staff free clinics for the treatment of substance abuse. They engaged in a strong educational campaign for people facing a drug problem to go seek voluntary treatment in those free clinics. Contrary to catastrophic pundits who had said substance abuse in Portugal would increase through the roof, they actually ended up with a smaller drug abuse problem than in many other countries that adopt a repressive approach to the issue.

 

So we agree! MAGA 2020!

 

Yes, even in Japan there's been a recent uptick. Spain had it under control and it is creeping up again. But these countries will probably jump on it again and bring it back to a reasonable point, while over here, there is no appetite or political climate whatsoever to try again the epidemiological control measures that we botched so badly.

The example of my state (a Democrat is the governor) we had I think 3 and a half weeks of what was supposed to be a strict lockdown, but 40% of workers were considered to be in "essential" sectors, including, no kidding, gardeners and landscapers... So only 60% of people were actually told to stay home... and the enforcement of this was strictly zero. None, nada. No law enforcement to ensure the lockdown, no fines, no control whatsoever of whether or not a person told to quarantine at home after testing positive was actually abiding by it or not. With no enforcement, in a couple of weeks even the 60% of people who were supposed to stay home, started to plain disobey the order. Maybe we ended up with 25% of the population staying home... and then we slightly decreased the contagion, opened up again much before we were ready, and then in July, predictably, we had record highs in number of new cases and deaths. And then the economy is suffering anyway.

Yes, leadership wasn't really leadership... it was more like blaming others, flip-flopping, and trying to paint a rosy picture when the numbers are anything by rosy.

 

So you're implying that America isn't great, right? Because if you need to say Make America Great.... .Again..., then you are saying that America currently is not great.

 

Good point on delayed gratification.

 

It always astounded me that the average American cannot forgo their daily latte, in order to save for a rainy day. The average credit card balances are $6,500, plus almost $30,000 in auto loans. It's like as a whole, people are unable to manage financial behavior, as much as they are unable to comply with covid mitigation measures.

I view this really as a psychological problem. People were able to comply with stay at home orders for a few weeks. After that, primal instincts take over. This makes a second wave almost unavoidable. It's like stock market crashes, they almost always come in 2-3 waves. The final wave comes when all hope is lost and reality finally sinks in. The analog to the pandemic is that people will have to see sickness and death in their own family and friend circle, before they alter their behavior. If it always the distant "others' who die, as seen on TV, they can't be bothered to care.

 

I agree. I know a resident in senior housing who is VERY upset about the shelter-in-place to the point she complains to management almost every single day. She is upset that they closed the community rooms and removed all the chairs in the common areas because she "has to have her coffee and daily chats" with her neighbors. The silliest part is she doesn't like talking on the phone and refuses to learn how to video chat online.

We are on phased opening. Two people in her building have passed from COVID-19 but it's like she doesn't even acknowledge there is a real threat around the world and people are really dying.

 

Has it ever occurred to you that this event was planned, and part of the plan was to crush the US?

The barbarians have been inside the gates for decades.

More, have you considered that the virus itself is mostly not fatal? That way fewer than 1% actually die from the virus, similar to flu?

Have you considered that the "crisis" was created and sustained by the media and that Big Pharma benefits from it?

 

The difference between the flu and the coronavirus is that the flu is extremely unlikely to kill me. With the flu, I'm content to let my body create its own vaccine. The coronavirus is different. It's a novelvirus. Not sure how much comfort this gives you, but I'm gonna take the shot to keep myself safe.

 

The problem here was simple. NYT, the MSM and the entire Democratic Party felt it was more important to win the election in November than so save lives and livelihoods. Blue States shut down their economies for months in an attack on Trump. To ensure they still has sufficient number of COVID deaths, they spread the virus by promoting riots. For the rest of the country, the NYT, MSM leveled an all out attack against a therapeutic used successfully in many places around the world.

Countries using hydroxychloroquine have low coronavirus fatality rate compared to countries that don’t, Association of American Physicians and Surgeons says

Expectedly, the Democrats stopped covering Gohmert's illness when they found out he was pretty much recovered from COVID after a week of a regimen of Hydroxychloroquine, Azithromycin and Zinc. He will be donating plasma next week to help others recover.

 

If you have more insight into why you think Americans are more prone to this behavior than Germans (or other Europeans) I’d be interested. To me, only having experience on this side of the pond, I think it’s a vicious cycle of consumerism, not only of tangibles but of entertainment and shallow amusements as well. People want their minds engaged in purchase of the next thing that may bring happiness or they want to be entertained. Real meaning of life and personal relationships are the casualties. Advertising, especially advertising that pushes the “you deserve this great thing NOW”, is pouring gas on the fire.

If people had been forward thinking instead of living for the moment we could have stopped this thing dead by closing the borders and staying home for a few weeks. But no, everyone “needs” groceries twice a week. Creature comforts were more important than living Spartan for a while for a huge payoff at the end. You nailed it with delayed gratification.

You think it’s frustrating from your perspective, I didn’t go anywhere off my property except in a vehicle on the road between properties for three months. In June I started going to get essential parts for my business etc. maybe twice a month. Yesterday I went to a grocery store for the second time since mid February. (The first time since February was mid July.). And what good did it do me or anyone else? I’m not particularly concerned about catching the virus myself but the risk of infection is about the same as in May. We’ve been playing whack-a-mole for months instead of jamming a pyrotechnic CO2 generator in the mole hole and killing all the moles.

I’m pretty ambivalent about it all from my personal perspective. I hate the suffering and death. But the constant pissing and moaning about who is whacking more or less moles seems silly to me when it’s all just a consequence of our choices. Nobody was willing, is willing, and never will be willing to do the things that could really be effective. What we all want “now” precludes it. We can’t delay gratification.

 

I agree. I've seen it in my own household. My elderly inlaws live with us. Do you think my mother in law was able to stay home, knowing full well that she is in the worst risk group? No, she had to go out twice a week to run errands, for example getting a couple of bags of dirt for the garden. Meanwhile the freezer is stocked so much we can survive a nuclear winter.

That's why I keep saying that people think with their gut instead of their brain. We think that we are rational, thinking beings with free will, but in reality we are driven by instincts, just like any other animal. We cannot think beyond the next day, let alone week, so we make tons of irrational decisions every day that will hurt us in the future. Obesity is another one of those. Gotta have my ice cream now, even though I am pre-diabetic, and my doctor tells me that I have to cut the carbs. But, who cares if I get a stroke in 10 years.

 

I've witnessed this myself and couldn't understand it. I've been pondering it though and I think it's more related to a feeling of helplessness. Nobody knows what's going on or how much longer it will take to find a treatment or cure. Nobody knows when the country will open up and we can resume our lives again. It's hard so some people are "coping" by pretending that everything is normal. They had to rope off some departments because people were just in there casually shopping for non-essentials while others waited in long lines outside because there was a cap on the number of people allowed in the store simultaneously. I think many people have cabin fever as we've been at this for months, but that's not a reason to throw common sense out the window.

This one is easier to understand. People don't like change and they especially don't like anything that makes them have to do some hard work. I have a former friend that would race to the ER every time he had chest pains. He had already survived one heart attack and was always afraid that another was coming. Yet, he wouldn't stop smoking. He wouldn't stop drinking. He would do nothing to rein in his temper. So, I asked him "What's the point in going to the hospital or doctor's office if you have no intention on listening to anything they have to say?" He went on a tirade about that as well. His outbursts lead to me ending the friendship. I have a neighbor who is basically in the same position and I had to wash my hands of him. I'm not suggesting that I'm perfect and do everything right all the time. I'm just willing to listen to my doctors, educate myself, advocate for myself and make any changes I think are appropriate. I've come to learn I'm in the minority.

 

The lock down was never about preventing people from getting the virus. It was always about making sure we didn't overwhelm hospitals, doctors and inventory of medical supplies. "Flatten the curve" means to lower the number of cases that hit all at once.

Hopefully we will never let inventories of PPE collapse the way they did after Bush stocked them in response to SARs or allow their manufacture to be totally outsourced to an enemy.

 

And somehow, he thinks that saying a vaccine will be likely before Nov 3 - while all the experts/scientists are saying otherwise - is a good idea. It is transparently a campaign tool, but is dangerous for all those who are waiting for the vaccine. I still haven't heard a word about the preparation for distribution - which will be a clusterfuck if it isn't properly planned. The time for that is now - not when the vaccine is ready. We already know that there is a shortage of vials to hold the vaccine - so what is being done about that?