Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

My daughter begins the next school-year on Wednesday of this week. Planned is 100% in person classes, with remote learning as an option in case things go south with the COVID-19 situation. It's looking like 5 days per week, with one week in the month having Saturday school as well.

The one thing the Gymnasium (German school campus, grades 6-12) is doing that I like is "Maskenpflicht" (Mask-requirement) for the entire school day, including when students are sitting at their desks. This school doesn't have a locker system and students bring their own lunches with them, so a number of things are simplified, here.

The one thing this Gymnasium is changing, that I don't like, is that it is removing the "one way street system" for in-school traffic between classes. Testing for all school personnel will happen (cost-free) every two weeks. Her school campus is in essentially three buildings, with a walkway from door to door between main building A and larger building B, but also a 3rd floor indoor walkway. They are willing to provide one-day masks for students who may forget their mask, without penalty, seems pretty fair to me.

We are all a little nervous about schools opening in Germany, and that with COVID-19 numbers that look like heaven compared to what is going on in the USA. So..... wish us luck!

 

The Georgia high school where the students tweets images of crowded hallways without social distancing or masks now has 9 reported new cases!

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/geor...es-packed-hallways_n_5f303a33c5b64d7a55f4f7d3

Just be thankful that your daughter is in school in Germany where they are taking the right precautions seriously.

 

Gennerally, things are being handled with care, the teachers union voted to do a hybrid 2 days in 2 days independent study to do assignments. masks mandatory. However, I am very concerned

 

Time for the Weekly Update to my State Rankings Project. Note the date because I track from Sunday to Sunday, so this report comes from 08/09. You can find last week's post here: http://politicalforum.com/index.php...-in-the-world.569531/page-468#post-1071924562

I made no changes to the type of data provided. First up are the data with the States ranked according to their Mortality rate. PREPARE YOURSELF FOR THE WALL OF TEXT.











In terms of MORTALITY, Connecticut has claimed the top spot for nine weeks in a row. When it took over the top spot, it's mortality rate was 9.259% and this week, two months later, the mortality rate has dropped fairly significantly to 8.826%. The only other minor changes to the top 10 is that Arizona and Rhode Island have swapped (8th and 9th). On the opposite end, Utah continues to creep slightly higher and only has the 3rd best mortality rate in the US.
Interesting Note: Arizona, for the 3rd week in a row, is the only State from the top 10 to see its mortality rating increase.

CASES (PC) DIFF RANKINGS show that Louisiana, Georgia, Mississippi, Florida, and Arkansas are the top five States in terms of seeing their Cases, per capita, grow the most. The range being 2,500.43 to 2,060.32. The five slowest States are New York, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Maine, and Vermont. The range being 234.55 to 52.72.
Interesting Note: Florida is no longer the top in this category after three weeks in a row, but I have to imagine that the lack of testing this past week, which was caused by the hurricane preparations, is partly to blame. This is the first time that Georgia has made an appearance in the top five of this category as far as I can recall. The bottom five is the same as last week, albeit in a slightly different order.

CASES (PC) GROWTH RANKINGS show that Montana, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, Idaho, and North Dakota are the top five States in terms of seeing their Cases grow, as a percentage, the most. The range being 52.30% to 15.06%. On the opposite end are Massachusetts, Maine, New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut. The range being 2.18% to 1.02%.
Interesting Note: Montana and Hawaii repeat as the #1 and #2 for the 2nd week in a row and this week, interestingly enough, they both grew at the exact same rate of 52.3%. The bottom five has slightly changed after six weeks in a row with Maine replacing Vermont.

DEATHS (PC) DIFF RANKINGS show that Arizona, Mississippi, Texas, Louisiana, and Florida are the top five States in terms of seeing their Deaths, per capita, grow the most. The range being 126.90 to 52.07. On the opposite end are Connecticut, New Hampshire, New York, Vermont, and Maine. The range being 2.52 to 1.50. (Every State, unfortunately, had at least one death).
Interesting Arizona had a fifth real rough week in a row given that it's 126 deaths per capita growth was roughly 62 more than Mississippi, who took 2nd - again. Texas and Florida being in the top five of this category is a really awful sign given the size of their populations (28.7 million and 21.3 million respectively). Louisiana replaces South Carolina in the top five, which dropped to sixth in this category.

DEATHS (PC) GROWTH RANKINGS show that Texas, Montana, Puerto Rico, Idaho, and Hawaii are the top five States in terms of seeing their Deaths, as a percentage, grow the most. The range being 23.72% to 19.23%. On the opposite end are New Hampshire, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Connecticut, and New York. The range being 0.72% to 0.13%.
Interesting Note: Texas takes the top spot in this category for the 2nd week in a row and while last week, it could be explained because they had a very large single day report based on an alteration in how they tracked Covid-19 deaths, this week the reason is just that Texas has lost a lot of souls unfortunately. Interesting to see Hawaii went from the very slowest last week to the 5th fastest for this category. New York can now claim the slowest growth to its deaths per capita in the entire country with a paltry 0.13% growth.

MORTALITY DIFF RANKINGS show that Arizona, Texas, West Virginia, South Carolina, and Florida are the top five States to see their Mortality go up the most. The range being 0.261% to 0.081%. On the opposite end are Illinois, Hawaii, Indiana, Michigan, and Montana. The range being -0.195% to -0.715%.
Interesting Note: This week, fifteen States saw their mortality increase after only seeing three weeks in a row of only six-eight states increasing. Texas, Arizona, and South Carolina all repeat as top fivers.

TESTING (POSITIVE %) DIFF RANKINGS show that Puerto Rico, Texas, Idaho, Mississippi, and Nevada are the top five States in terms of seeing their Percentage of Positive Test increase the most. The range being 1.067% to 0.450%. On the opposite end are New York, Connecticut, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Hawaii. The range being -0.438% to -1.569%.
Interesting Note: This week, the number of States to see their positive testing percentage increase went to 26. This is a fairly significant improvement over last week's count of 30. But nine weeks ago, it was only 10.

TESTS PER 100K DIFF RANKINGS show that Alaska, Louisiana, District of Columbia, New Mexico, and New York are the top five States to see their Tests Per 100K increase the most. The range being 4,725.78 to 2,461.23. On the opposite end are Colorado, South Dakota, Wyoming, Washington, and Puerto Rico. The range being 795.44 to 116.12.
Interesting Note: Alaska has led this category for three weeks in a row, with their testing per 100K growing by over 19,000 in four weeks. Their testing positive percentage overall is 1.609%, which is well below the WHO recommended goal of 2%.

TESTS PER 100K GROWTH RANKINGS show that Alaska, Georgia, Hawaii, Louisiana, and Idaho are the top five States to see their tests, as a percentage, increase. The range being 14.33% to 11.23%. On the opposite end are Wyoming, South Dakota, Rhode Island, Puerto Rico, and Washington. The range being 6.17% to 1.11%.
Interesting Note: Alaska continues to demonstrate its willingness to test and test alot because it is now the State who has tested the most, per capita.

Unfortunately, a majority of the States continues to go in the wrong direction in terms of testing positive percentage. Every State needs to test more.

 

The non Native average age in AZ is 46. There are huge retirement colonies. So it does not come as a surprise that per cap AZ has a high mortality rate from c19.

 

Colorado Data
https://covid19.colorado.gov/data/case-data

As expected the rate of increase in my county is going up we made the 110 club, with 112 cases. It took just a little over a week, 10 days to go from 98 to 112. The worry is we had the demo derby, with bleachers full, no masks and no masks drivers and crew, a free for all, next comes a 3 day gun show, inside, at the Fair Grounds, it will be an other free for all.

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were some important analyses from the last worldwide analysis to this one:
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-08-009, posted 2020-08-010, 10:25 GMT +2, #11874.
USA EOD analysis for 2020-08-009, posted 2020-08-010, 10:51 GMT +2, #11875.

COVID-19 worldwide statistical analysis for Monday, 2020-08-010 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):

֍֍ 20,245,512 ֍֍
+228,965 new C19 cases over the day before, largest Monday haul to-date.
There are 151 nations with at least 1,000 COVID-19 cases, 82 of them with at least 10,000 COVID-19 cases.
There have now been 738,116 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +4,509 of them were on this day.
Worldwide 7-day rolling averages: +258,583 new C19 cases per day and +5,899 deaths per day.
887 Indian, 721 Brazilian, 575 US-American and 312 Colombian & 292 Mexican deaths were recorded on this day.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

There is a large +cases discrepancy between WorldOMeter (+216,389) and my excel-table (+228,695). See: DISCLAIMER at the very top of this analysis.

It took our world circa 4 months, or 16 weeks (End of December, 2019 until 2020-04-002) to get to the first 1,000,000 C19 cases. It took 86 days, or roughly 12 weeks (from 2020-04-002 to 2020-06-027) to get from 1,000,000 to 10,000,0000 to 20,000,000 cases. It then took only 43 days or roughly 6 weeks (from 2020-06-027 to 2020-08-009) for the world to double from 10,000,000 to 20,000,000 C19 cases.

Assuming an average of +250,000 new C19 cases per day for a good long while now, assuming slight ups and downs, but on the average, 250,000, that means 1 million cases every four days. 20 *4 = 80. So, very simple, back-of-the-envelope math: in 80 days, or right around the end of October, 2020, we should have doubled from 20,000,000 to 40,000,000 (FOURTY MILLION) C19 cases.

The number of daily deaths (4,509) for the day currently being analysed was more than the 4 Mondays before.

Similar, back of the envelope calculation for the number of deaths until the end of October: the current average is +5,882 deaths per day. If we set the meter at only +5,600 deaths per day, * 80 days = an additional 448,000 deaths worldwide, making for a total of 1,181,607 (1,182,000) total deaths at the time that the world will hit 40,000,000 cases. This would be preferable than maintaining the current death rate of 3.67%. 40,000,000 * 0,0367 = 1,468,000 deaths. Either way, by the end of this year, we are pretty much guaranteed, in absence of a viable vaccine, 1.5 million C19 deaths worldwide, which is far, far, FAR more than the normal "flu" has wrought upon our world in one year, excepting of course the Flu pandemic of 1918-1920.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (in the title), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. Almost all of the text below this will now disappear. There 3 nation-rubrik-jumps on this day: Botswana, Palestine and Egypt. The double-Egypt entry is a correction from a false rubrik the day before. Oops.

The +cases, over +50,000 rubrik shows 2 nations and not just one, because the USA actually also went over +50,000 cases (not shown on WorldOMeter, but on my Excel Table).

It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of countries that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

Total cases per country, descending (countries with circa +300 C19 cases and above):
​

In terms of the countries with the most new cases:​

​

In terms of total deaths per country, descending:​

​

Currently at 166,192 total deaths, the USA, which just went over the 150,000-death-milestone on 2020-07-027, is circa 4% of the world's population but yet, 22.52% of all worldwide deaths have come from the USA (the day before, it was 22.58%). If you have been reading this text carefully over the last many weeks, you will see that the USA's % of worldwide deaths has receded from over 25.5% to now 22.7%. The rate of dying in the USA is not really slowing down, but it is picking up elsewhere across the world. A extrapolation pointing to almost 290,000 total US deaths by the end of this year is now currently running within the USA analyses.

Brazil, now with 101,857 total deaths, which crossed over the 100,000-line in total deaths on 2020-08-008, is about 1.4% of the world's population, but 14.00% of all of the C19 deaths in the world (the day before, it was 13.79%). Put together, the death toll from the top two nations (USA, Brazil) = 36.52% of all worldwide C19 deaths.

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:
​

2020-08-009 was the fourth time that India has had more than +1,000 daily deaths (the last time before was on 2020-07-022), but this was the 3rd or 4th Sunday in a row where India has lead in the daily deaths, over Brazil and the USA.

Average daily deaths for India (current): 912 per day
Average daily deaths for Brazil (current): 1,022 per day
Average daily deaths for the USA (current): 1,038 per day

2020-07-028 (Tuesday) was the first time ever that 2 nations simultaneously reached a rolling daily death average of over +1,000, reaching a new, unwanted milestone in C19 history. After 11 days, Brazil just fell out of that statistic and rejoined it on 2020-08-009. As you can see, India is also closing in on +1,000 average daily deaths, so it is only a matter of time before at least 3 nations on earth will be suffering 1,000 deaths per day (on the average).

In terms of Total Tests administered per country:​

43 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece; of those 43, 6 nations have performed more than 10 million apiece: China, the USA, Russia, UK, India and Brazil. Currently at 8.6 million total tests, Germany is next to cross over the 10-million line.

With 90.4 million COVID-19 tests, China leads the field by far.
The USA has performed 66.2 million tests (800,000 more than the day before).
Russia has performed 30.8 million tests (200,000 more than the day before).
India has completed 24.6 million such tests (500,000 more than the day before).
The UK has performed 18.6 million such tests (300,000 more than the day before).
Brazil, which is now rank 2 among all nations both in terms of COVID-19 infections and total deaths, has performed 13.2 million such tests (-0- thousand more than the day before).

FACIT: on 2020-08-010, the world travelled from 20.02 million total C19 cases the day before, hopscotching over 20.1 and 20.2 million to land at 20.25 million.

-Stat

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were a number of important analyses between -and including- the last USA analysis and this one:
USA EOD analysis for 2020-08-009, posted 2020-08-010, 10:51 GMT +2, #11875.
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-08-010, posted 2020-08-011, 08:48 GMT +2, #11882.

COVID-19 in the USA: statistical analysis for EOD on Monday, 2020-08-010 (EOD = GMT +0):

*****5,251,446*****
+52,002 new COVID-19 cases, a slight case-increase over the Sunday before.
There are now 166,192 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA, 575 of them were recorded on this day.
USA weekly average = 55,610 new infections & 1,038 deaths per day.
Currently, 17,589 C19 cases in the USA are in critical care.

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

There is a +case disparity between WorldOMeter (+49,800) and my Excel Table (+52,002). See: DISCLAIMER at the top of this analysis.

The most accurate way of describing what is going on with the daily averages is simply to say that the averages for the USA are currently in-flux. I would not put too much stock in one or the other daily variation, but rather, keep my eyes on the weekly average. In this case, the weekly average shift from last Sunday to this one shows a verifiable reduction in both categories.

Looking into the future, since the world jumped over 20,000,000 C19 cases just the day before, a rather long quote from the world-wide analysis for 2020-08-009:

"It took our world circa 4 months, or 16 weeks (End of December, 2019 until 2020-04-002) to get to the first 1,000,000 C19 cases. It took 86 days, or roughly 12 weeks (from 2020-04-002 to 2020-06-027) to get from 1,000,000 to 10,000,0000 to 20,000,000 cases. It then took only 43 days or roughly 6 weeks (from 2020-06-027 to 2020-08-009) for the world to double from 10,000,000 to 20,000,000 C19 cases.

Assuming an average of +250,000 new C19 cases per day for a good long while now, assuming slight ups and downs, but on the average, 250,000, that means 1 million cases every four days. 20 *4 = 80. So, very simple, back-of-the-envelope math: in 80 days, or right around the end of October, 2020, we should have doubled from 20,000,000 to 40,000,000 (FOURTY MILLION) C19 cases.

The number of daily deaths (4,509) for the day currently being analysed was more than the 4 Mondays before.

Similar, back of the envelope calculation for the number of deaths until the end of October: the current average is +5,882 deaths per day. If we set the meter at only +5,600 deaths per day, * 80 days = an additional 448,000 deaths worldwide, making for a total of 1,181,607 (1,182,000) total deaths at the time that the world will hit 40,000,000 cases. This would be preferable than maintaining the current death rate of 3.67%. 40,000,000 * 0,0367 = 1,468,000 deaths. Either way, by the end of this year, we are pretty much guaranteed, in absence of a viable vaccine, 1.5 million C19 deaths worldwide, which is far, far, FAR more than the normal "flu" has wrought upon our world in one year, excepting of course the Flu pandemic of 1918-1920."

Using the same back-of-the-envelope math as I did for the world, assuming that the USA continues to be about 26% of all the world's C19 cases and about 22% of all of the world's C19 deaths, then that translates to 10.4 million C19 cases and 260,000 C19 deaths in the USA at the end of October, 2020, shortly before the General Election. To be clear, that sum of 260,000 is greater than my extrapolation at the bottom of this analysis. Likely, the actual deaths will be somewhere between the two at that time.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (directly above this screenshot), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. There were 2 unit/rubrik changes on this day, in: MT and AR.

It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of Units that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:​

​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily cases:
​

The top states are also in the worksheet, so you can see their daily development.

It should also be noted that the inclement weather in the East and the wildfires in the West have surely slowed down the testing from this week: do not be surprised if the +numbers in cases picks up again in the next weeks.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:​

​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:
​

For more than 3 months now, it was only New York and New Jersey, so incredibly hard hit by the pandemic right at the beginning of the wave, that went over 10,000 total deaths. On 2020-08-006, California joined that miserable statistic and looking at the numbers coming out of Texas and Florida, etc, I can't promise that California will be the last state to cross over the 10,000 death line.

For comparison: worldwide, there are only 12 nations with 10,000 deaths or more, the USA is of course, the top of those 12.​

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FACIT: we ended the day and the month analysed with 166,192 total US deaths from COVID-19. To make this more personal and also easier to visualize, from the listing of the projected 2020 population of US-American cities, here a screenshot of cities with a projected population of between circa 151,700-171,300:



This means that we have currently lost the equivalent or more than all of DEER VALLEY or almost all of PEMBROKE PINES, never to get the one or the other back again. Think about that.

ADJUSTED EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-08-001)​

As of 2020-08-001, I adjusted the extrapolation upward from an estimated average +700 deaths per day (from 2020-06-001 through 2020-07-031) to an estimated average of +850 deaths per day in the USA. Here the milestones:

-200,000 deaths on or around 2020-09-20 (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-10-013).

-Almost 237,500 deaths on Election Day, 2020-11-003. Without wanting to interject politics in this, no doubt the rising death-toll is going to be one of the top themes of the election, there is no getting around this.

-250,000 deaths on or around 2020-11-018 (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-12-023).

-286,697 deaths on New Years Eve, 2020 going into 2021.

At current:


This means that currently, we are +945 deaths over the extrapolation, which puts us somewhat more than 1 day1 ahead of the milestone-projections. This value is considerably higher than the Monday before (-368 ), to note.

IN CONCLUSION: mitigate! Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the US-death extrapolation, which was adjusted on August 1st, 2020, to happen.

-Stat

 

Welcome to this thread. Please make sure to go back and read the OP thoroughly. I recommend this to every person who appears on this thread.
Best to you,

Stat

 

I love this kind of wall of text.

Yepp, every state and every nation must test much, much more, otherwise, we will never get this thing under control.

 

Not something anyone wanted but inevitable given the reopening of the economy.

 

This is now the 2nd time that I have seen the Philippines appear in the Top 10 New Cases so it was time to do a little digging.



https://www.npr.org/2020/08/10/9002...ecomes-coronavirus-hot-spot-in-southeast-asia

CHAOTIC and yet all too FAMILIAR at the same time.

Yet another nation headed in the WRONG direction due to a leadership FAILURE.

 

It appears as though I am not the only one who is expecting there to be a 3rd wave/surge due to reopening schools.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/mich...ediction-september_n_5f323fd3c5b64cc99fdd8601

 

Well it is interesting because the mortality rate is just a factor of confirmed infections and confirmed deaths.

So, as the economy re-opened and cases spiked, the mortality rate across the board started to fall and it is almost certainly because the spike of infections outpaced any spike of deaths - initially. And especially since those cases were more likely (in this part of the first wave) to be among younger and healthier people. But over the course of the last several weeks, the deaths have started to catch back up (because they are a lagging indicator, @Sanskrit ) while the rate of infections has started to decline.

And thus, the mortality rate in those same States is starting to creep back upwards again.

 

the teachers union voted on a hybrid system where have the students will attend at a time. the moment one child gets it my son will be total remote learning

 

Education can take many different forms and still be effective. I can recall the demand for "home schooling" when they were trying to denigrate public schools. Now suddenly every child MUST attend public schools? Why the sudden flip flop? Schools were bad then but suddenly they are good now?

Remote teaching, tutoring and home schooling can all be equally as effective as public schools.

Many years ago, in her junior year, my daughter became too ill and could not attend classes any longer. Her public school arranged for her teachers to come to our house and tutor her individually at no cost to ourselves. She aced math that year coming top of her class which was a surprise since that was always her weakest subject.

Yes, kids do need educations but we have the technology to do it safely using remote learning. Why take the needless risks?

 

I couldn't agree with you more right now I'm at my son's track school which is run by a teacher that I have a lot of admiration for and we're both in agreement this is not a good idea for the hybrid

 

I was holding out hope we had a plan for schools.
Silly me.

 

It is so fricking disorganized, 3 school districts in the county and each does its own thing, on top of it the church schools, each one does its own thing. One church school was told by one of its board members, a Dr., that masks don't work, so no masks.

Da kunste nen Affen krieschen.

 

The plan is that there is no plan so plan for unplanned events that will happen without a plan.

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were some important analyses from the last worldwide analysis to this one:
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-08-010, posted 2020-08-011, 08:48 GMT +2, #11882.
USA EOD analysis for 2020-08-010, posted 2020-08-011, 09:08 GMT +2, #11883.

COVID-19 worldwide statistical analysis for Tuesday, 2020-08-011 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):

֍֍ 20,511,691 ֍֍
+266,179 new C19 cases over the day before, largest Tuesday haul to-date.
There are 151 nations with at least 1,000 COVID-19 cases, 82 of them with at least 10,000 COVID-19 cases.
There have now been 744,916 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +6,800 of them were on this day.
Worldwide 7-day rolling averages: +259,902 new C19 cases per day and +5,934 deaths per day.
1,557 US-American, 1,242 Brazilian, 835 Indian, 735 Mexican, 321 Colombian & 240 Argentinian deaths were recorded on this day.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

There is a 53 death disparity in the new deaths in the USA between WorldOMeter (1,504) and my Excel-table (1,557). My excel calculations are correct. See: DISCLAIMER above.

It took our world circa 4 months, or 16 weeks (End of December, 2019 until 2020-04-002) to get to the first 1,000,000 C19 cases. It took 86 days, or roughly 12 weeks (from 2020-04-002 to 2020-06-027) to get from 1,000,000 to 10,000,0000 to 20,000,000 cases. It then took only 43 days or roughly 6 weeks (from 2020-06-027 to 2020-08-009) for the world to double from 10,000,000 to 20,000,000 C19 cases.

Assuming an average of +250,000 new C19 cases per day for a good long while now, assuming slight ups and downs, but on the average, 250,000, that means 1 million cases every four days. 20 *4 = 80. So, very simple, back-of-the-envelope math: in 80 days, or right around the end of October, 2020, we should have doubled from 20,000,000 to 40,000,000 (FOURTY MILLION) C19 cases.

The number of daily deaths (4,509) for the day currently being analysed was more than the 4 Mondays before.

Similar, back of the envelope calculation for the number of deaths until the end of October: the current average is +5,882 deaths per day. If we set the meter at only +5,600 deaths per day, * 80 days = an additional 448,000 deaths worldwide, making for a total of 1,181,607 (1,182,000) total deaths at the time that the world will hit 40,000,000 cases. This would be preferable than maintaining the current death rate of 3.67%. 40,000,000 * 0,0367 = 1,468,000 deaths. Either way, by the end of this year, we are pretty much guaranteed, in absence of a viable vaccine, 1.5 million C19 deaths worldwide, which is far, far, FAR more than the normal "flu" has wrought upon our world in one year, excepting of course the Flu pandemic of 1918-1920.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (in the title), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. Almost all of the text below this will now disappear. There 2 nation-rubrik-jumps on this day: Kazakhstan and Argentina.

It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of countries that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

Total cases per country, descending (countries with circa +300 C19 cases and above):
​

In terms of the countries with the most new cases:​

It's looks very much as if the new-caseload in South Africa is receding, while the new-caseloads in Colombia and Peru continue to increase. Spain, France and Germany were on the +1,000-list on this day, not a good sign.​

In terms of total deaths per country, descending:​

​

Currently at 167,749 total deaths, the USA, which just went over the 150,000-death-milestone on 2020-07-027, is circa 4% of the world's population but yet, 22.52% of all worldwide deaths have come from the USA (the day before, it was also 22.52%). If you have been reading this text carefully over the last many weeks, you will see that the USA's % of worldwide deaths has receded from over 25.5% to now 22.7%. The rate of dying in the USA is not really slowing down, but it is picking up elsewhere across the world. A extrapolation pointing to almost 290,000 total US deaths by the end of this year is now currently running within the USA analyses.

Brazil, now with 103,099 total deaths, which crossed over the 100,000-line in total deaths on 2020-08-008, is about 1.4% of the world's population, but 13.84% of all of the C19 deaths in the world (the day before, it was 14.00%). Put together, the death toll from the top two nations (USA, Brazil) = 36.36% of all worldwide C19 deaths.

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:
​

Average daily deaths for India (current): 910 per day
Average daily deaths for Brazil (current): 1,000 per day
Average daily deaths for the USA (current): 1,066 per day

2020-07-028 (Tuesday) was the first time ever that 2 nations simultaneously reached a rolling daily death average of over +1,000, reaching a new, unwanted milestone in C19 history. After 11 days, Brazil just fell out of that statistic and rejoined it on 2020-08-009. As you can see, India is also closing in on +1,000 average daily deaths, so it is only a matter of time before at least 3 nations on earth will be suffering 1,000 deaths per day (on the average).

In terms of Total Tests administered per country:​

43 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece; of those 43, 6 nations have performed more than 10 million apiece: China, the USA, Russia, UK, India and Brazil. Currently at 8.6 million total tests, Germany is next to cross over the 10-million line.

With 90.4 million COVID-19 tests, China leads the field by far.
The USA has performed 66.9 million tests (700,000 more than the day before).
Russia has performed 31.0 million tests (200,000 more than the day before).
India has completed 25.2 million such tests (600,000 more than the day before).
The UK has performed 18.9 million such tests (300,000 more than the day before).
Brazil, which is now rank 2 among all nations both in terms of COVID-19 infections and total deaths, has performed 13.2 million such tests (-0- thousand more than the day before).

FACIT: on 2020-08-011, the world travelled from 20.25 million total C19 cases the day before, hopscotching over 20.3, 20.4 and 20.5 million to land at 20.51 million. At this trajectory, the world will go over 21 million confirmed COVID-19 cases on Thursday, 2020-08-013.

-Stat

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were a number of important analyses between -and including- the last USA analysis and this one:
USA EOD analysis for 2020-08-010, posted 2020-08-011, 09:08 GMT +2, #11883.
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-08-011, posted 2020-08-012, 09:37 GMT +2, #11896.

COVID-19 in the USA: statistical analysis for EOD on Tuesday, 2020-08-011 (EOD = GMT +0):

*****5,305,957*****
+54,511 new COVID-19 cases, a slight case-decrease over the Tuesday before.
California is closing in on 600,000 total C19 cases. See: paragraph below in blue.
There are now 167,749 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA, 1,557 of them were recorded on this day.
Four states reported more than +100 new deaths on this day: FL, TX, CA and GA.
USA weekly average = 55,362 new infections & 1,066 deaths per day.
Currently, 17,339 C19 cases in the USA are in critical care.

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

There is a 53 death disparity in the new deaths in the USA between WorldOMeter (1,504) and my Excel-table (1,557). My excel calculations are correct. See: DISCLAIMER above.

The most accurate way of describing what is going on with the daily averages is simply to say that the averages for the USA are currently in-flux. I would not put too much stock in one or the other daily variation, but rather, keep my eyes on the weekly average. In this case, the weekly average shift from the Sunday before to to this last one shows a verifiable reduction in both categories.

Looking into the future, since the world jumped over 20,000,000 C19 cases just the day before, a rather long quote from the world-wide analysis for 2020-08-009:

"It took our world circa 4 months, or 16 weeks (End of December, 2019 until 2020-04-002) to get to the first 1,000,000 C19 cases. It took 86 days, or roughly 12 weeks (from 2020-04-002 to 2020-06-027) to get from 1,000,000 to 10,000,0000 to 20,000,000 cases. It then took only 43 days or roughly 6 weeks (from 2020-06-027 to 2020-08-009) for the world to double from 10,000,000 to 20,000,000 C19 cases.

Assuming an average of +250,000 new C19 cases per day for a good long while now, assuming slight ups and downs, but on the average, 250,000, that means 1 million cases every four days. 20 *4 = 80. So, very simple, back-of-the-envelope math: in 80 days, or right around the end of October, 2020, we should have doubled from 20,000,000 to 40,000,000 (FOURTY MILLION) C19 cases.

The number of daily deaths (4,509) for the day currently being analysed was more than the 4 Mondays before.

Similar, back of the envelope calculation for the number of deaths until the end of October: the current average is +5,882 deaths per day. If we set the meter at only +5,600 deaths per day, * 80 days = an additional 448,000 deaths worldwide, making for a total of 1,181,607 (1,182,000) total deaths at the time that the world will hit 40,000,000 cases. This would be preferable than maintaining the current death rate of 3.67%. 40,000,000 * 0,0367 = 1,468,000 deaths. Either way, by the end of this year, we are pretty much guaranteed, in absence of a viable vaccine, 1.5 million C19 deaths worldwide, which is far, far, FAR more than the normal "flu" has wrought upon our world in one year, excepting of course the Flu pandemic of 1918-1920."

Using the same back-of-the-envelope math as I did for the world, assuming that the USA continues to be about 26% of all the world's C19 cases and about 22% of all of the world's C19 deaths, then that translates to 10.4 million C19 cases and 260,000 C19 deaths in the USA at the end of October, 2020, shortly before the General Election. To be clear, that sum of 260,000 is greater than my extrapolation at the bottom of this analysis. Likely, the actual deaths will be somewhere between the two at that time.

Also, considering that California is roughly 11% of the US population and right now, also exactly 11% of all the C19 cases in the USA, then it only stands to reason that as the USA gets very close to 10 million total C19 cases, California will also itself go over the 1,000,000-mark in C19 cases. And I suspect that it will not be the only state to do this. Florida and Texas will not be far behind. By this time next year, we are facing the prospect of at least half of all states being at or very close to 7-digit total C19 case numbers.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (directly above this screenshot), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. There was 1 unit/rubrik changes on this day, in: WI.

It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of Units that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:​

​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily cases:
​

The top states are also in the worksheet, so you can see their daily development.

It should also be noted that the inclement weather in the East and the wildfires in the West have surely slowed down the testing from last week: do not be surprised if the +numbers in cases picks up again in the next weeks. In California, it is already happening.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:​

​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:
​

For more than 3 months now, it was only New York and New Jersey, so incredibly hard hit by the pandemic right at the beginning of the wave, that went over 10,000 total deaths. On 2020-08-006, California joined that miserable statistic and looking at the numbers coming out of Texas and Florida, etc, I can't promise that California will be the last state to cross over the 10,000 death line.

For comparison: worldwide, there are only 14 nations with 10,000 deaths or more, the USA is of course, the top of those 12.​

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FACIT: we ended the day and the month analysed with 167,749 total US deaths from COVID-19. To make this more personal and also easier to visualize, from the listing of the projected 2020 population of US-American cities, here a screenshot of cities with a projected population of between circa 151,700-171,300:



This means that we have currently lost the equivalent or more than all of HOLLYWOOD, never to get it back again. Think about that.

ADJUSTED EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-08-001)​

As of 2020-08-001, I adjusted the extrapolation upward from an estimated average +700 deaths per day (from 2020-06-001 through 2020-07-031) to an estimated average of +850 deaths per day in the USA. Here the current projected milestones:

2020-09-020: 200,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-10-013).
2020-11-003 (Election Day): 237,500 deaths
2020-11-018: 250,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-12-023).
2020-12-031: 286,697 deaths on New Years Eve, 2020 going into 2021.

At current:


This means that currently, we are +1,652 deaths over the extrapolation, which puts us somewhat less than 2 days ahead of the milestone-projections. This value is considerably higher than the Monday before (143), to note.

IN CONCLUSION: mitigate! Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the US-death extrapolation, which was adjusted on August 1st, 2020, to happen.

-Stat

 

Once again proving that federalism absolutely does not work when it comes to a world-wide pandemic. The stupidity of many people never ceases to amaze....

 

California and Canada, what happened?

Two/three months ago, and per 1M pop, Canada’s number of cases, active cases, and deaths were significantly higher than California, and back then, someone in this thread kept saying that both CA’s were a fair Covid19 comparison, thus, since then, what happened?

TODAY

Canada;

Number of active cases; 4,600
Death per 1M pop; 232

California;

Number of active cases; 346,000
Death per 1M pop; 270

Well, several reasons:

1. I googled the “Conservative” Province of Ontario and California’s Re-opening Phases, and their restrictions.

a. Re-opening Phases are quite similar, i.e. parks, bars, restaurants, etc., however, Ontario’s Phase 3 was implemented Mid July, whereas Cali’s Phase 3, early/mid June.

b. Compared to Ontario, Cali’s re-opening restrictions were more relaxed/less enforced.

c. After implementing Phase 3, there have been several rollbacks in California, none in Ontario.

d. Most likely, California’s high rate of multi family dwellings is a contributing factor.

e. Also, a severe spike of cases and hospitalizations in Southern California.....California/Mexico border regions.

Several other factors, however, all of the above, self-explanatory.

 

I'm not sure who needs to hear this or who will care or not, but as of today, THREE QUARTERS OF ONE MILLION PEOPLE have now died from COVID-19.

To put this gruesome number in context, the number of people who have now died from COVID-19 worldwide is considerably larger than the entire population all of Seattle, Washington or more than the entire state population of either Wyoming, Vermont, DC or Alaska - or almost all of the population of the state of North Dakota.