To those of you who are wearing masks in public.

Only BETWEEN those countries.

 

It does if people are still free to move from place to place. Nowhere is 'safe' if travel is still happening.

 

Sorry, not following you. Once again, the size of the house has nothing to do with the cost to build it. The cost is in design, materials, and workmanship. A McMansion could be half the cost to build, of an 850sqf house.

 

As we've seen all across America, waiting until you have a disaster is not how to go about using prevention. It is how you go about growing more problems.

There are any number of examples of how we routinely take preventive action before there is serious impact. And, those preventive actions aren't free.

Waiting for a disaster before investing in solutions isn't a logical approach. Instead, we choose not to have a totally optimistic investment portfolio, we buy insurance, we restrict plants from belching carcinogens, etc.

With COVID, the reason for the disasters is that preventive action wasn't taken BEFORE there was a disaster.

As for pessimism, facts aren't pessimism. Suppression of facts is basically just lying. It prevents rational response.

Why would you be interested in failing to inform US citizens?

What's the justification for blocking the information that would allow for rational response?

This is a democracy - citizens make decisions, they vote, the demonstrate, they lobby their representatives. We're not going to succeed with our American methodology if we succeed at keeping citizens ignorant.

 

The fallout from not taking preventative action early, is worsening by the day .. it seems.

Let's hope America (and Europe) learn from this, and do it right next time - because new viruses are going to continue to plague us. It's long been predicted, then understood - that with the rise of globalism, contagions were going to be humanity's greatest threat. Back when we all stayed in our 'villages', these things didn't have the speed they now do. If we expect to keep being citizens of the world, we can expect continuous pandemics.

 

Agreed on all counts.

We ARE a global society at this point, and that is not going to change.

Our foreign travel closures have never been complete - people can still travel around the world and back to the USA. And, there are no restrictions to travel of any kind within the USA.

It shouldn't be surprising that COVID made its way to the US through Europe, which probably perceived Wuhan to be at a safe distance.

The sad part is this was ALL known from past experience and we actually had the first steps in planning underway - before Trump killed them and refused to create or follow any of his own.

This virus hasn't found much difficulty in recruiting and maintaining an army of Americans to help it out.

 

1) We don't have to be global, though. We can be sovereign nations, and work on reducing the profligacy of recreational travel (which is a disaster for the planet, at bare minimum). Global trade should be reduced also ... it's made too many nations helpless. It should be restricted to raw materials, technology, and pharmaceuticals.

2) Returning citizens is fine in a pandemic, as long as those people are transferred directly from airport to quarantine facilities for two weeks and locked in. That's what we do here, and it works well. Picks up a few cases daily, even now - but they never get the chance to spread it. As for internal travel/movement, allowing that in America was insane. That should have been the first thing to go, domestically. We were limited to our own areas .. no movement necessitating car trips other than to your nearest supermarket, in practice. And DEFINITELY no leaving your town/city. Anyone on key roads out was stopped by police, and turned back if their motives didn't check out. Even driving at night in your own area was effectively verboten unless it was a dire emergency. At least, highway driving after 7pm was asking for it

3) We may never fully understand why America surrendered so easily. Too many factors involved, probably. Either way, it's revealed a nation which doesn't know what or who it is. The substance is gone.

 

Both your sources and my sources explicitly state derivatives were “pivotal” and one of the necessary three components. You posted quotes that directly contradict your position and tell me I don’t know what I’m talking about.

They aren’t wrong. They agree with me. You don’t know enough about the subject to understand what you post. In a previous post you linked to a Wikipedia page that lists credit default swaps as a cause. You posted the source. A credit default swap IS a derivative. You keep using the term MBS. The SEC defines many of the MBS (credit default swap being one) used pre recession AS DERIVATIVES. You are calling oranges citrus fruit and telling me an orange isn’t an orange because it’s a citrus fruit. You don’t comprehend the links YOU provided.

I already gave the SEC as a source previously. Trust me, they know a bit about the subject.

You don’t understand your own sources but here you go.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/creditdefaultswap.asp
Here is the most pertinent pull quote:
“A credit default swap is the most common form of credit derivative and may involve municipal bonds, emerging market bonds, mortgage-backed securities or corporate bonds.”

Again, remember the credit default swap MBS was listed as a major cause by YOUR Wikipedia link.

Cool. Another link provided by you that credit default swaps are derivatives. And your previous links and mine above declaring they are and were used in the MBS arena pretty much sinks your argument based on denial of information in your own sources. Oh and don’t forget the SEC definition as well.

Agreed. But calling it something else doesn’t make it go away. Same as saying some MBS aren’t derivatives means the ones that are aren’t.

Obviously they are. That’s why I said I traded derivatives and used them as the example of ones I trade. It’s also why I used them as an example to show when the SEC calls them derivatives and MBS’s used pre recession derivatives they are both derivatives. Because they fit the definition of derivatives set forth by the SEC.

I know. I was floating the theory you may have stopped learning about this subject then and that’s why you are so confused now.

That was my point. This isn’t the 60’s anymore. Things change. In fact there is quite a controversy over whether “To be Announced” MBS’s are themselves derivatives. I can’t remember but I think they are considered derivatives in some cases now.

Sure. That’s why even your links validate my position and refute yours. Because I’m uneducated. LOL

Not hard. But I didn’t see the point when you don’t read or can’t understand your own links.

Not according to me, my links, and your links.

Ours was hit and miss here. There is a big push for more right now. I think the state just hired a bunch of people and did some subcontracting as well.

Just remember poor schmucks risking their lives to keep that food coming.

Whaaaat? How does that address the silly notion of sending 155 million people to work with respirators?

First, your attributing my support on my behalf is a tired old strawman. It detracts from your argument’s validity.

You won’t be the first to call me an idiot on this forum for presenting irrefutable facts. I called us all selfish because it’s demonstrably true. I didn’t prepare for a pandemic so there would be more resources for you. I did it so my life could go on interrupted and virtually stress free in it’s midst. I was selfish. You are selfish for wanting others to provide for you and put themselves at risk to do so. Facts don’t care about your feelings.

What kills 3 million annually worldwide and nearly 90,000 in the US every year? Uh, uhm, doesn’t come to mind? Because you’ve been conditioned to accept it. It’s time to put big boy and girl pants in and evaluate this all pragmatically.

That’s great. Ya Canada....except....crap. Food insecurity is rampant and increasing!
https://www.google.com/amp/s/thecon...hungry-during-the-coronavirus-pandemic-136164
Twelve and a half percent of households were insecure before the pandemic. Not counting natives, remote regions, or the homeless! Now it’s worse. Damn Trump and Mitch. LOL

Yawn. I’m weary of fact checking you.

An economist who thinks we can eat money indefinitely. [/QUOTE]

 

And it is NOT helped by global warming as insects previously confined to the tropics start to spread e.g. Zika virus

 

Global warming caused by ..... globalism!

Movement - whether people or things - has been a freaking disaster for the planet. I hope to live long enough to see recreational travel demonised out of existence. We may have to put up with global trade a while longer, but would be great if that went also.

 

Bizzarre. A speculator speculates. You say not everyone who trades derivatives speculates then contradict yourself in the last sentence of your post.

I’m not the clueless one because I understand hedging which is what the exchange was set up to provide for. If I hedge sales by taking a position on the board and an ethanol plant or feedlot takes the opposite position to hedge inputs nobody is speculating and we both are mitigating risk, not increasing risk. That is the whole reason for the exchange.

 

Absolutely.

 

Nowhere is “safe” period. It’s subjective. Are you aware of any countries with no cases? You just agreed to opening countries if mutually on downhill slopes. Is that “safe”?

 

Oh, you are going to talk to me about taking action before disaster when I’m one of maybe a couple people here who were prepared? LOL

Don’t say “we” when I was prepared and you weren’t.

Straw man argument. Please quote where I’ve advocated for not informing citizens.

Well, since I always advocate for facts and information I have no reason to justify blocking information. I push facts here constantly and have never once advocated for suppression of information.

I agree. Yet the ignorance here on the science of C19 and the economics of C19 is staggering. But rest assured it isn’t my idea or my doing. Pitch that nonsense to someone else.

 

Good show on 2. Cell phone tracking here has shown that people just went everywhere - and they still do!!

3 is really disturbing. Some of it has to do with having leadership that has NO interest in leading against COVID. Nothing appears to interest Trump unless it is of personal benefit. But, it's certainly not all just Trump. The Republican party is following along like lap dogs.

We have some serious work to do. And, making national level turnarounds toward the better is not easy.

 

I'm not sure I understand the mindset behind continuing to travel all over the place during a pandemic. Even without emergency martial law preventing movement, all advice was very clear about the importance of staying in your own neighbourhood. When you have a dangerously infectious disease which moves around unnoticed, it doesn't take a genius to grasp that we shouldn't be moving around. In which case, why on earth were Americans still doing it? We stopped moving around voluntarily before it was banned, and that's part of the reason we've had success in suppressing it. Our Govt was a little slow off the mark, but 80%+ of citizens were already quarantining. It gave us a head start. Like I said, it doesn't take genius to see danger and respond proactively to offset it. It's an animal instinct. Birds go crazy before an earthquake, horses smell fire long before we do and run for open ground, dogs hear the wolf howl and go to ground, etc etc.

America really needs to move beyond partisan politics, especially during an emergency.

 

This is NOT about you being prepared or me being prepared. It's about our nation being prepared. And, there is NO QUESTION that we were absolutely not prepared. And, federal level policy has stuck to that by continuing to NOT be prepared.

I can't see a way to interpret your concern about too much pessimism as anything but a call for less factual information. That's been the theme of those who deny the seriousness of this pandemic - Fox news, Breitbart, Rushbo, Trump and the rest have pitched it that way.

If I misiterpreted that, I apolologize - but I'd like to know where else it came from.

I'm fine with you pointing out the economic issues. They are serious. We got hotels bailed out, but we have huge numbers who can' pay this month's rent and who are losing healthcare coverage in the middle of this pandemic. We're spending trillions while firing those who acount for where the money goes!!!

What Trump is pushing for with our economy is not even SLIGHTLY consistent with the plans for opening our economy as designed by his own experts in the economy and in pandemic response.

And, his message of total lack of concern and dissociation with the federal level problems that still exist is NOT OK.

Are you willing to consier following Trump's plan?

 

Medical science (CDC and others) stated it was a concern, but that concern was not turned into a policy directive that slowed events such as Mardi Gras, "Spring Break" on the beaches of Florida, or any other such totally unnecessary travel to/from crowded venues where no individual protection or social distancing was practiced. The cell phone trackig data is startling. It shows cell phones on specific Florida beaches traveling out across America.

One has always been able to fly between any two locations in America as much as desired. The same goes for all other forms of transportation. And, one can fly to/from most places outside the USA, too - including Europe.

The US right wing managed to connect COVID policy to the idea of goverment usurping freedom. And, in the US the right wing is especially populated by those who reject science. So, we have state governors who see no value in following medical advice from pandemic experts.

 

Stay safe stay home.

 

Get a hammer and try it.

 

Delusional. You think MBSs are derivatives. They aren't.

Credit Default Swaps are derivatives, but they aren't MBS. They might, of course, reference an MBS.

You traded derivatives? Like what? Credit Default Swaps? Given your comments, I doubt you traded anything to do with MBSs.

MBS are not derivatives. There are complex instruments, no longer just MBSs, that have protections of various sorts.

I challenge you to provide an SEC source that calls an MBS a derivative.

Read this:

https://derivativedribble.wordpress...default-swaps-and-mortgage-backed-securities/

I was one of those "poor schmucks" you claim to care about when I was in high school. You position is clearly hypocritical when you dismiss my support for efforts to flatten the curve as they've done in British Columbia, Australia, and New Zealand.

155m people? Straw man BS. Do you really care about people if you won't push the government to make sure workers have access to N100 respirators?

Alcohol. Your point?

A final straw man?

 

Are you really this clueless? Some people use derivatives to reduce risk. Do you know what a covered call is?

You know spit.

 

If personal responsibility wasn’t a factor you wouldn’t have used investment portfolios and insurance as analogies.

Actually, as a nation founded on individual rights and responsibilities, it is about you and I. It was not the intention of the founders to have citizens so dependent on government that emotional attachment to parties and politicians overshadow critical thought. Even as recently as 1961 some sentiment of the founder’s intent remained and surfaced in JFK’s remarks: “Ask not what your country can do for you—ask what you can do for your country.”

I’ll take your word for your list as you must consume their content more than I. I don’t pay much attention to any of them. I take information from wherever I find it, not caring much about the source and more about whether the information can be verified to be accurate or not.

Too keep this from getting too long, I recommend you read a bit of Winston Churchill’s commentary on circumstances at the start of WW2 and what he intended to do about it. Here’s a starting point:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/We_shall_fight_on_the_beaches

He had a way of presenting cold hard facts while at the same time offering encouragement and a positive proactive attitude. Can you see the contrast with how C19 is approached today?

If you want to stay on this side of the pond, consider Churchill’s contemporary and hero of left leaning Democrats, FDR.
“So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is...fear itself — nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance.”
Of course the irony with FDR is that he’s responsible for much of the dependence on government we see today, but that’s for another thread.

What would you expect to hear from these men if they addressed C19 today? Do you see this attitude projected anywhere today?

Because I was prepared for this I’ve been able to be unemotional about politician’s actions or inactions because neither directly affect me. Some are pissed because testing wasn’t available in quantities they wanted. I didn’t have to care. No eggs in the store? Don’t care. Can’t get masks or hand sanitizer? Don’t care. Lockdown/no lockdown? Don’t care. My decisions were my own and thought out rationally in advance.

Want to know the only place I’ve seen anything remotely comparable to Churchill or FDR? From Chris Cuomo when he talked about beating the virus personally. Trump attempts positive attitudes but he’s no Churchill and few are interested in proactive or positive behavior anyway at this point in time.

The pessimism today is resident in the general population now. It’s a default position caused in my opinion by decades of public opinion being influenced by fear as the motivator. Examples? You should fear pot heads who will steal for drug money—vote Republican. You should fear losing government benefits—vote Democratic. Climate change is marketed with fear. A majority of Christianity is marketed with fear. Murder hornets. Riots. Cops. We must fear them all at some point or you are a “bad” or “mean” person.

So to condense it down, my opinion is based on pragmatic approach to applying data (facts) to challenges with a positive “can do” attitude. It’s based on a study of history to determine what attitudes (positive or negative) about the same set of facts produce the best results for the greatest number of people. Today I don’t have to care about myself so I have the luxury of caring about what’s best for others. And I can be unemotionally attached enough to care about suicides, hungry people today AND tomorrow, and economics instead of just the latest positive test count.
[QUOTE
I'm fine with you pointing out the economic issues. They are serious. We got hotels bailed out, but we have huge numbers who can' pay this month's rent and who are losing healthcare coverage in the middle of this pandemic. We're spending trillions while firing those who acount for where the money goes!!![/QUOTE]
I’m opposed to picking winners and losers by allocation of government spending as well. I don’t like it now and I didn’t like it as it became normative behavior over the last—well, forever.

Can you be more specific? What inconsistencies are you concerned with? What should the Fed. gov.
be doing that it isn’t? As I said I pay little attention to what Trump says and haven’t been able to keep up with all the state plans. I can say I think the Federal gov. should for the most part keep their nose out of state’s business and let governors and local entities make decisions.

 

https://www.thebalance.com/role-of-derivatives-in-creating-mortgage-crisis-3970477

https://alliancewestfinancial.com/mortgage-backed-securities-and-mortgage-derivatives/

https://homeguides.sfgate.com/definition-mortgage-derivatives-6617.html

Not all MBS are derivatives but many are. Read my links.

Point to you. I have never traded derivatives I’ve always used a broker. I apologize for using incorrect terminology when accuracy is my stated goal. I’ve never claimed to have traded MBS’s or bought or sold them.

Sure thing.
https://www.sec.gov/fast-answers/answersmortgagesecuritieshtm.html

??? What is that supposed to prove? I don’t disagree with the substance except he attempts the tact you take of just changing language to skirt certain issues. I’ll take the SEC definition over a blogger.

No I’m not hypocritical because I’m not the one claiming unselfishness. I have no problem flattening curves as long as people understand in reality you are just kicking the can down the road.

No strawman. I’m floating the idea of sending everyone back to work with respirators. If it’s good enough for the people you want to work to support YOU it’s good enough for everyone, right? Does Canada have respirators for everyone? Like how nobody is hungry in Canada? LOL

What have you done to “push the government” to provide respirators? Have you seen a lot of positive results?
View attachment 115294

Fear my man. My point is fear. Do you fear alcoholism? Why or why not?

Ok, as an economist, explain to us how giving money to pay for food that isn’t accessible at any price helping. This should be good.

 

No I’m not clueless. I’m just reiterating there are positions that aren’t speculative. You claimed such didn’t exist. I keep saying over and over derivatives are used to reduce risk. Don’t argue against something I haven’t said.

I've forgotten much of what I once knew about options, but I have a working knowledge of them, yes.

Then prove me wrong. We know you can’t. If you tried you’d post a link supporting my position.