Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

I grew up in Michigan - in the UP. Huge area - very few people.

 

We were projected to have 550 deaths by May 1, which was way off. The worst hit areas are the reservations, lots of obesity and diabetes.

FWIW, lots of mountains here in NM, some such areas get several hundred inches of snow, the flat is mainly in the SE.

 

We tried?

One of the first restrictions we did here was to start taking the temperature of family visitors, but the Covid cases in the homes kept increasing. So we stopped allowing family inside the residences. Only residents and staff. Staff had to have their temperature taken twice a day and wear masks. But the nursing home cases kept increasing.

I guess we weren't paying much attention to asymptomatic carriers who may not be running a fever, or to where facility employees were going socially after work shifts. There is also an issue with chains of facilities owned by one group where employees get shifted around to work at more than one facility in the chain.

One-third of the deaths in Texas are associated with assisted-living facilities. Here in Austin we have 32 total deaths and 16 are associated with these homes, 15 residents and 1 employee. The employee who died had worked with nursing home patients for 25 years, so he must have been getting up in age himself.

Austin is now sending any facility resident who tests positive or gets sent to and released from the hospital to a separate residence outside the city to a city/county just north of Austin. They don't go back to their nursing home. That must be terrifying for an elderly person to be sick and uprooted like that.

 

And a new US record for cases...****.

 

And NYC now at 21% with antibodies and Miami-Dade at 180K and mortality rate of 0.1%.

 

While I am happy to learn that this virus is perhaps not as lethal as it seems because there are more asymptomatic individuals, it should be noted that those who are still sick with the virus can still die by the virus.

Also worth noting is the fact that none of the serology tests have been certified for accuracy by the FDA.

Also worth noting is the fact that we simply do not know whether the possession of antibodies means that a person is immune from the virus, whether the amount of antibodies is determinative, or how long the antibodies will remain in the body.

 

Well, I'm still in search of why we can't get our reductions to look more like Europe.
Today I heard Dr. Brix Say the number of positives were going down so I corrected the numbers for the number of tests run. No joy. The numbers go down of course but the shape stays about the same. I'm beginning to think the obvious is the answer. We just aren't doing as good as Europe with the social distancing.
If that is the reason we will blow thru the 60,000 number like a rocket.

 

If the NYC numbers are accurate NYC is at the same herd immunity level as Sweden.

 

We are all kapput. We are all doomed to die....

French doctors say Covid-19 die at 93° C temperature (Celsius, be aware...!)...

But what is much worse is this (translate this article with Google Translate..), in other word it is proved Covid-19 virus sticks to micro pollution particles so, theoretically, if you sneeze, you spread millions of small... wandering mines, they fluctuate in the air for days (exactly 9 days, this funny Covid-19 can survive 9 days outside a patient). You can infect your fellow man who is 2 km far from you, may be also 20 km far from you...

Now really a flap of a butterfly in London will destroy a suburbs in Tokyo...

È ufficiale, il coronavirus è trasportato dal particolato atmosferico

This is the English translation of the article:

Spoiler: Translation

Promemoria sulla privacy di Google
A little over a month after the publication of a Position Paper on the "Evaluation of the potential relationship between air particulate pollution and the spread of the Covid-19 epidemic", the Italian Society of Environmental Medicine (Sima) announces that coronavirus SARS-Cov-2 was found on particulate matter (PM). "This first test opens up the possibility of testing the presence of the virus on the atmospheric particulate matter of our cities in the coming months as an indicator to detect early the recurrence of the coronavirus and adopt adequate preventive measures before the start of a new epidemic", anticipates Professor Alessandro Miani, president of Sima.

“This first part of the research specifically aimed to look for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA on atmospheric particulates. The first evidence relating to the presence of coronavirus on the particulates comes from analyzes performed on 34 PM10 samples in ambient air of industrial sites in the province of Bergamo, collected with two different air samplers for a continuous period of 3 weeks, from 21 February to March 13 ", explains Leonardo Setti, coordinator of the scientific research group together with Gianluigi De Gennaro and Miani.

"The samples were analyzed by the University of Trieste in collaboration with the laboratories of the Giuliano Isontina hospital, which verified the presence of the virus in at least 8 of the 22 days examined. The positive results were confirmed on 12 different samples for all three molecular markers, namely the E gene, the N gene and the RdRP gene, the latter highly specific for the presence of the viral RNA SARS-CoV-2. We can confirm that we have reasonably demonstrated the presence of Viral RNA of SARS-CoV-2 on atmospheric particulate by detecting the presence of highly specific genes, used as molecular markers of the virus, in two parallel genetic analyzes ”4, Setti specifies.

According to De Gennaro, “this is the first evidence that SARS-CoV-2 RNA can be present on the particulate matter in ambient air, thus suggesting that, in conditions of atmospheric stability and high concentrations of PM, the infected micro-droplets containing the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus can stabilize on the particles to create clusters with particulate matter, increasing the persistence of the virus in the atmosphere as already hypothesized on the basis of recent international research. The detection of the virus on dust could also be a good marker to verify its spread in indoor environments such as hospitals, offices and premises open to the public. Research has now made it clear that potentially infected saliva droplets can reach distances of up to 7 or 10 meters, thus requiring us to use face masks as a precaution in all environments ".

"The evidence that the SARS-CoV-2 RNA can be present on the particulate matter in ambient air does not yet attest with definitive certainty that there is a third route of infection," continues De Gennaro. "However, in the so-called Phase 2, it is necessary to take into account the need to keep particulate emissions low in order not to risk favoring the potential spread of the virus."

In this regard, the epidemiologist Prisco Piscitelli explains: "To date, the epidemiological observations available for Italy, China and the United States show that the progression of the Covid-19 epidemic is more serious in those areas characterized by higher levels of particulate matter. Chronic exposures to high concentrations of atmospheric particulate matter, such as those which have been recorded for decades in the Po Valley, in themselves have negative consequences on human health, well detected and quantified by the European Environment Agency, also representing a predisposing factor to a greater susceptibility of frail elderly people to viral infections and cardio-pulmonary complications. The time has come to tackle the problem. "

Alessandro Miani concludes: “We are in close contact with the World Health Organization and with the European Commission to share the results of our analyzes. Further studies are underway to confirm these first tests on the possibility of considering PM as a 'carrier' of nuclei containing viral droplets, research that will have to go as far as assessing the viability and above all the virulence of SARS-CoV-2 now in particulate matter. Meanwhile, the presence of the virus on atmospheric dust is valuable information in view of the imminent reopening of social activities, which confirms the importance of a generalized use of masks by the whole population. If we all wear masks, the inter-personal distance of 2 meters is to be considered reasonably protective, thus allowing people to resume a social life ".

 

All you have is rightwing disinformation falsehoods?

Here are some more FACTS about what Australian LEADERSHIP has actually done!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Australia#Preventative_measures

Those are IRREFUTABLE FACTS establishing that the Australian LEADERSHIP took joint ACTIONS that enabled them to bring the virus under control.

No amount of equivocation on your part can alter those FACTS!

 

Your windscreen does not allow UV rays to penetrate inside the car. The outside will be sanitized by the UV but not the inside. What can disinfect the inside is the temperature but it must reach 153F for at least 30 minutes.

 

Do you have any idea how the WHO actually functions?

Can you explain it in your own words?

 

Believe me,
The real image of Covid-19 is not this one...



... but ...



... the one above... The one above is more accurate, and much more explicative...

 

Even an idiot can do the right thing when circumstances warrant them.

Your idiot did the right thing and ours did not!

As far as citizens COMPLYING goes that is a different topic to what LEADERSHIP did/didn't do.

The steep FINES for noncompliance were probably a factor and, as noted above, even an attempt to impose fines for noncompliance here in America fails because the cops won't enforce it.

This brings me back to the ABILITY of leadership to provide the right MESSAGE that CONVINCES the citizens that is in their own best interests to comply. AKA as INFORMED consent of the people and with that information they chose to comply. OTOH here there was NO attempt to provide even a semblance of a coherent message about the threat nor the measures necessary to ensure our own safety. Instead we were stuck with rambling incoherent contradictions and an absence of any unity of purpose and absolutely no attempt at any strategy to deal with it.

Genuine LEADERS have the ability to communicate their vision for the future and to motivate their citizens to embrace that vision and turn it into a reality. JFK's man on the moon speech is a classic example and FDR's was closer to the situation we find ourselves in today. Angela Merkel united the German people to fight off this virus so that is what I mean by leadership.

Unfortunately it is only notable by it's complete LACK at the Federal level here in America /sarcasm/ and that is why we are "winning" the Pandemic Olympics. /sarcasm/

 

Part of the problem is not washing hands/changing gloves between patients.

Nursing homes are notorious for understaffing and using untrained staff so as to keep costs low and profits high. That leads to the staff who are overworked and not having the time or facilities to ensure that there is no transmission between the infected and noninfected.

 

You nailed it!

There has been no coherent and cohesive message or strategy when it comes to Social Distancing so that is why we are seeing so many cases and deaths.

 

Good morning, PFers,

I hope you slept well and are all healthy.

HERE were the numbers for last night, 00:43 (Today) my time, 23:43 (April 24th) GMT +1, 18:43 on the East Coast of the USA:

​

I deliberately ended my day 40 minutes later and will do so again tonight, another 40 minutes later than that, so as to adjust from GMT +2 to GMT +0 by Sunday night. That will make for slightly less numbers postings for me and eliminate the need to point out the difference between my EOD and WORLDMETERS' EOD.

​

And now, the stats from yesterday EOD, GMT +0 (Greenwich Mean Time):






So, in the 77 minutes between my EOD and WORLDMETERS' EOD, we went from 2,826,035 to 2,828,626 confirmed COVID-19 cases across the planet, a small jump of +2,591 cases. The number of worldwide deaths went from 196,931 to 197,099, a jump of +168 deaths.

Specifically, in the USA, we went from 1,827 to 1,959 COVID-19 deaths, a jump of +132 deaths (78.57% of all the worldwide deaths reported in this small time frame).

In this small time-frame of 77 minutes, Nigeria jumped over the 1,000 mark and became the 84th nation to join the 1,000-club, which I will also note in tonight's EOD report. I just reported on Nigeria in my morning posting from 2 days ago, HERE. Two mornings ago, Nigeria had 873 COVID-19 cases. This morning, it is already at 1,095, +222 case jump for a "small" nation in 48 hours, or a 25.4% growth rate in those 48 hours.

Some other countries on the list to check out for their large growth rates yesterday over the day before:

Bahrain (+301, 13.6% growth rate)
Bangladesh (+503, 12% growth rate)
Mexico (+1,089, 10.3% growth rate)
ECUADOR, which doubled its numbers in one day (+11,536, 103% growth rate!)
Russia (+5,849, 9.3% growth rate).

The United States ended the day (GMT +0) with 925,232 COVID-19 cases, of them, +38,958 (almost +39,000!) cases were added just yesterday alone. Be thankful that it's not a 10% growth rate like Mexico right now, for had it been a 10% growth rate, for had that been the case, then the USA would have added +88,700 cases yesterday instead of +39,000 and would have ended around 975,000 cases instead..... but looking at the numbers, as of last night, the USA is just 74,769 cases away from going over the 1,000,000 mark. If the USA gets +37,386 cases today and then again tomorrow, then this will happen. Either way, by Sunday night, we will either be very, very close to 1,000,000 COVID-19 cases in the USA or we will have just broken over this horrifying barrier. And if the current 5.64% death rate (COVID-19 deaths / total number of cases) holds, then we will go over 56,000 US deaths by tomorrow night.

Tomorrow morning will be the last day to have to make a comparison between the two EODs, for then on Monday I will simply be using WORLDMETER'S final EOD table.


And now, to this morning's current COVID-19 numbers, from about 10 minutes ago:



And the Excel-Table:




And the countries-table (4 screenshots):








We shall soon see what today brings. But most likely, world-wide, we will cross over 200,000 deaths today and probably shoot over 2.9 million cases. With yesterday's huge +116,000 cases added, who knows? The numbers may swing wildly back into the low +70,000s today, or they may jump over +120,000. Hard to say. But surely, the number of infections is continuing to increase apace, that much is clear.

-Stat

 

Not only has it very likely killed people, it set off quite literally thousands of new contact-chains of infections that would like have not existed otherwise. So, the long-term negative effects, also in the number of people in other states who will be infected from a spring-breaker who caught it in Florida and brought it home, who will get sick, not die, but stay sick with permanent organ damage in their bodies, is absolutely inestimable.

This kind of recklessness, regardless of party, MUST be called out.

 

So, to your thoughts: I agree with you that thinking outside the box can sometimes be very positive and productive. It is also something I have pointed out even on this thread, for instance, the South Korean scientists and epidemiologists who thought way out of the box and recreated the genome for COVID-19 using artificial intelligence, without having a physical specimen to work with as a baseline so that they could make COVID-19 tests. Now, THAT is thinking out of the box.

But there is a difference between thinking out of the box in private and testing those things out in a controlled environment and then showing findings that work and are useful and safe - or standing at a podium and openly pondering whether it might be ok to inject disinfectant or UV-light into the human body - which is bum***ingly stupid. Isn't this the same guy who said that the cure cannot be worse than the sickness??

I mean, there's dumb, there's really dumb and then there is DANGEROUS dumb. And that from Thursday evening was DANGEROUS dumb times about 50.

And imo trying to defend the indefensible is even dumber. Find a better hill to die on, is my advice to those people.

BTW, the mayor of Las Vegas, Carolyn Goodman, who identifies as an Independent but usually endorses Democrats, is just as dumb, to offer - without the consent of the people she governs, to allow us to use the entire city as a petri-dish to see how herd immunity can work, just so the slot machines can be running again. What incredible stupidity. Since when do we worship money?

What part of "do no harm" do people not understand??

 

That's kind of sad. I myself will not be applauding this. For when law and order breaks down, then we dissolve in no time into wild west posse justice and I don't think civilized human beings want to go there. The police should have issued their complaint before the mayor made the announcement. Of course, there is also the possibility that the Mayor issued the mandate without first consulting law enforcement. Do you have information on this?

 

I am thinking of just placing a naked woman with buxom breasts on the hood of my car on a sunny day, with my mask hanging from the radio antenna and 6 hours later, picking both up. Then I have my fun AND have done my bit to fight COVID-19, and I don't need to fry her first. Oh, and the mask, I almost forgot the mask, somehow!!

 

As of the coming Monday, 27.04.2020 (exactly two months after I started tracking the COVID-19 stats, first on Twitter until 14.03.2020, and thereafter, here), the German province of Nordrhein-Westfalen, where I live and which went on lockdown on on 17.03.2020, is making wearing masks in public a requirement. So, I went and bought a number of disposable face masks but was also made aware of a sewing shop that sold-hand made cloth-masks, so I bought four of them for a pretty decent price. My daugher really likes pink, but red was the best I could do for her. There is a pretty nice story about how I go the information about the shop. Like I've been saying, Germans are developing an amazing sense of humor throughout the COVID-era.

So, here is what the masks look like:



My daughter's High School is organizing a crew of parents who are good seamtresses (seamsters??) to sew as many cloth masks as possible for the community and the neighboring hospitals. It looks like her High School is really getting into doing this.


And just so that you know I really am a real person and not just some bot that can type well, this is me trying out the mask for the first time yesterday. I had to take my bike to the shop. Planning on a long bike tour today or tomorrow, depending on the weather conditions:



Ole Blue-eyes hath dothly spoken!! Yeah, those are small hairs on the top of my head. Shaving during the days of COVID-19 is not really high on my list, nöööö.

Gröööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööhl.

 

One would imagine that if the virus reached a place like the one above there would be no stopping it given the population density and impoverishment of said inhabitants. Places like this are common in 3rd world nations.

But then it occurred to me that the primary building material here is galvanized sheeting. For those who don't know that is steel sheeting that has been given a corrosion resistant surface that contains zinc.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC353050/

That study was from 2004 and it made me wonder if there is any connection at all between the proven effects of zinc on those viruses and the zinc on the galvanized building material.

I am trying to find, without any success as of yet, how long Covid19 can last on a galvanized steel surface.

Then I saw the particulate study establishing that the virus can attach itself to particulates in the air. Going back to the image it is easy to see that the zinc coating has been corroded off about half of the visible sheets which begs the question as to what has happened to all of that zinc that was on those plates? Does it form part of the particulates in the air and if so what happens to the virus if it encounters a zinc particulate?

A lot of questions that still need answers but it might explain why India and Africa are not reporting massive outbreaks. The only semi reliable testing that I have encountered regarding testing in these areas is being done in South Africa where they have started an ambitious program to screen and test their entire population.



Those numbers indicate that only 2.8% of those tested to date are infected however they have only tested one quarter of one percent of the population so far. Way too soon to draw any definitive conclusions but given that almost 10% of the population lives in shanties the expectation would be that the rate of infections should be considerably higher. Is it possible that the reason for that lower infection rate has something to do with the zinc or could it be the BCG vaccinations or a strict lockdown or maybe it is a combination of all of those factors plus others that are currently still unknown.

This is why I think that keeping a close eye on Nigeria and the neighboring nations is going to be important for tracking purposes. From what I have gathered something on the order of 80 million Nigerians live in these conditions and we have no idea how many of those are infected at this point in time.

Just to put this all into a global perspective it is estimated that 1 billion people worldwide live in these conditions which would that 1 out of every 7.6 people lives in a crowded shanty where even just washing your hands with soap and water is no easy task.

The worst part of all this is that we just do not have any reliable ability to track what is happening in their communities as far as this virus goes but if we see the numbers in Nigeria escalate rapidly that will a very bad sign.

 

Lot of galvanised roofing in Australia! And water tanks were galvanised iron before plastics.