A hypothetical weather forecast for 2050 is coming true next week

A hypothetical weather forecast for 2050 is coming true next week
Analysis by Angela Fritz, CNN Senior Climate Editor
Updated 4:46 PM ET, Fri July 15, 2022

(CNN)Two years ago, forecasters in the UK conducted an interesting thought experiment: What will our forecasts look like in 2050?

The climate crisis is pushing weather to the extreme all over the world, and temperatures in the northern latitudes have been particularly sensitive to these changes. So meteorologists at the UK Met Office -- the official weather forecast agency for the UK -- dove in to the super long-range climate models in the summer of 2020 to see what kind of temperatures they'd be forecasting in about three decades.

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Well, on Monday and Tuesday, the "plausible" becomes reality -- 28 years early.

... https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/15/weather/2050-uk-forecast-comes-true-in-2022/index.html​

Odds are we will still have global warming deniers in 30 years as well. What a world, what a world. I just hope we can save it from ourselves.

 

A few hot days is WEATHER NOT CLIMATE.

 

What you fail to understand is that weather patterns are changing. Temperatures around the world, both air and sea, are higher on average than they used to be. The cause of this is clear and preventable.

 

I understand clearly what's happening to temperatures around the world; basically they're rising at around 1.5 degrees C. over a century or so. If that. Climate are the conditions that exist over decades not, as I said over a few days. The idiots that made this claim should turn in their degrees.

 

Forecasters can barely get day to day weather right, much less weather in thirty years from now.

 

You make it sound like 1.5 degrees C is a small thing. It is not. It is changing weather patterns, playing havoc with ecosystems, causing massive wildfires, etc.. Species ranges are shifting rapidly, far more rapidly than evolution can keep up with, causing them to become invasive in areas that have no defenses against them. Freshwater aquatic insects are hit hard. A small change in temperature like that massively affects the amount of oxygen they have available. Cooler water retains more oxygen. This causes stress to the insects, that have evolved for very specific environmental conditions. That means they will grow smaller, and much less will survive. That is a huge blow to the food chain. Just a couple examples of what a mere 1.5 degrees C can make. There are lots more.

 

Who are you? What are you degrees?

 

Doesn't take a degree to look at a chart. Nice ad Hominem. Better luck next time.

 

Point is the world works that way. We've had warm periods and ice ages before, as well as those other happenings you list.

 

So you have no idea what you are talking about. Yet another self-proclaimed expert. Got it!

In science we call that being a crackpot and they are a dime a dozen. Actually that doesn't even rise to the level of crackpot. Holiday Inn experts are a lower level.

 

If you all had any idea how stupid the discussions are here, you would all run and hide under your beds in shame.

And the crime of it is that we have highly qualified experts who can help guide humanity through this crisis. But it appears that ignorance, arrogance, and stubbornness, will be the death of civilization as we know it. And it isn't going to take long. I'm glad I don't have a lot of years left.

 

the rate of change is the problem. The earth will certainly survive, but it could easily be an extinction level event. It tends to be the larger species that get wiped out, as the smaller ones require less food chain support. That’s how we evolved from a shrew-like mammal when the dinosaurs were wiped out. There is a very good chance we don’t make it, as it is a large and complex food chain that supports us which will be undermined. Maybe some insectoid species will be the next dominant species on the planet.

 

I don't think the current rate of change is anywhere near the cataclysmic level. In fact I've seen a few scientists suggesting that dealing with the increase rather than instituting radical programs may be the approach to follow.

 

'Everyone else is an idiot'. That's what seems to be happening here at PF. Scientists and meteorologists - idiots. Democrats - idiots. Pullitzer winning journalists - idiots. It would appear that, for some, anyone who doesn't think they way they do are idiots.

 

Amen.

Clearly documented.

 

a few among many many others who strongly disagree.

 

Well, maybe you could cite that.

But, let's remember that scientists are not suggesting that humans will change their behavior enough to "solve" the problem.

Every possible way of dealing with climate change will surely be required.

I think the questions are:
- How much can we slow the onset to allow time for building mitigations and learning to deal?
- How bad are humans really going to allow it to get?

 

I have - repeatedly

Well, no, scientists - SOME scientists ARE getting into the politics and public strategies.

Or maybe the climate will do what it wants and we'll have to deal with it. OR cooling could return

If the 1.5C pace proven out we've got lots of time - and we may even find a slightly warmer atmosphere is better for mankind.

 

Probably not as many as you've been led to believe.

 

The Sun has been at it's low cycle, which is ending.

The idea that we're going to cool is really pretty ridiculous.

We're feeling the effects today. I don't see any justification for guessing that we've got lots of time. That's certainly not what analysts say.

 

Haha, keep telling yourself that. It’s not even close. The ones trying to deny it are payed very well to do so. From the scientists I talk to and the work I’m involved in, I am very convinced that the climate is changing far more rapidly than the natural cycles the earth always goes through. But, it’s a free country. You are free to believe what you wish.

 

Are you suggesting that climatologists, who told YOU that, have somehow forgotten???

 

People think weather forecasts are crap when they are off by a day.

Weather forecasters don't have the advantage of climatologists, who are focused on 5 or 10 year running averages.

 

I understand perfectly. And the cause is not "perfectly clear" or preventable. It is, in fact a subject of intense debate in climatological circles. You don't hear much about it because the sensationalism of heat waves and floods sells media space.

 

Have you checked the IPCC, NASA, NOAA, European science, etc.?

What are the major sources of climate science that you are consulting?