Interesting that everyone was saying we'll be in recession by now, and the exact opposite is happening despite of a slew of rate hikes from the Fed to cool down the economy. Even housing starts, which should have suffered the most from the hikes (interest rates) is increasing nearly 4%. Atlanta Fed projects nearly 6% GDP growth in third quarter https://finance.yahoo.com/news/atla...-6-gdp-growth-in-third-quarter-195125511.html Eight months after 2023 kicked off with widespread recession calls across Wall Street, the Atlanta Fed is projecting the economy will grow nearly 6% in the third quarter. On Tuesday, the Atlanta Fed's GDP Now estimate moved up to 5.8% from 5.0% a day prior after fresh data from the Census Bureau's showed housing starts increased 3.9%. in June. If the 5.8% GDP growth number held, it'd mark the most robust period of economic growth since the fourth quarter of 2021. The higher projection from the Atlanta Fed is the latest piece of data pointing to a stronger than expected US economy. On Tuesday, July's retail sales report revealed sales increased 0.7% in the month with the control group, which contributes directly to Gross Domestic Product (GDP), rising 1.0%. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected just a 0.5% increase for the control group.
US GDP for 2019 - 21.38 trillion US data for the second quarter of 2023 put the country on track for an annual GDP of $26.84 trillion. (source: Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2023 (Advance Estimate) ) This convenient inflation calculator site says that 21.38 dollars in 2019 would be equivalent to $25.56 in 2023. The population has also increased by 1.8% between 2019 to the start of 2023. So we could make that $25.56 more like equivalent to $26.02 trillion. But are those official inflation numbers really accurate? The median US home price was $258,000 in 2019. But the median home price is now $436,800 as of 2023. That's a 69% increase. (source: "The U.S. median home price increased 6.2 percent in 2019, hitting an all-time high of $258,000." ATTOM (attomdata.com) ) It seems not only is the US GDP being "artificially" inflated by the increase in home prices, but also homes are less affordable now than they were 4 years ago. How much of that GDP increase was actually an increase in wealth and how much is just an increase in prices?
Its an inflation-adjusted measure, so its a moot point. Also, value of existing properties is excluded from GDP growth numbers.
Average price of car as of May 2019 - $36,718 Average price of car as of March 2023 - $48,008 That's a 30.7% increase.
You can suspect anything you want, and assume everyone is a liar, or you can look things up. New construction is included, but not existing homes
I'm going to point out that inflated home prices will probably get reflected in GDP even if the GDP measure does not officially include it. Inflating home prices will inflate the cost of everything else, since there will be pressure to pay workers more so they can pay housing expenses, higher mortgage rates.
I don't think you're listening or understanding. If home prices go up, if they inflate, then costs of many other local things are going to also go up to pay for that. Some of this inflation actually represents inflation in home prices, rather than just the inflation in currency. That is why inflation of home prices could inflate GDP even if the GDP metric specifically excludes home prices. Part of the increase in prices at a business is going to go to pay the increase in labor costs, and that increase in wages is going to pay for the increased price of housing. Labor usually becomes more expensive when costs of housing go up.
When you go to a local business to buy something, you are going to end up paying higher prices to pay for higher housing costs. The workers will need to be paid more to afford living there, the business will need to charge more money to pay for higher labor costs. All of that increase in price is being sucked up in housing costs. Inflation of housing will have a carryover effect inflating other prices in the economy, especially local prices. That is why, even if the prices of homes are excluded, it still does not exclude the effect of housing inflation from GDP.
GDP growth is not the same as not increasing the deficit, or the debt, or not increasing the current account deficit.
We can look at a graph of the debt to GDP ratio over time. another recommended thread to read: GDP to population ratio, and ability to pay down the debt
Republicans have been doing everything they can to cool the Biden economy, even raising interest rates, Biden is still doing well though despite it guess Republicans will have to try harder to destroy the economy... so they then can blame it on Biden
