Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank Predicts 5.4% gdp growth for Q1 2018

More hilarity.

 

Sociology is a "science" because the dictionary says so ?? Please do some homework on that.

 

Wages aren't likely to grow all that much for structural reasons. We have a long-term trend of stagnant real wage income for most Americans. Trump isn't going to change that.

Not if we're unwilling to put more money in the system.

"Productivity metrics" is meaningless jargon. $200b is not even close to enough.

It won't happen automatically.

Government needs to spend more on education, worker training particular, R&D, and infrastructure. It needs to give tax breaks for such spending by business. Government should encourage free markets.

It helps, but I was talking about going beyond rate cuts.

 

It means that the market is a symbol that stands for nothing, and an empty symbol has no laws.

 

NAFTA, and potentially the WTO.

 

A recession, for example, cuts inflation and wage increases. The 1930s depression brought on wage cuts and deflation.

 

Real median household income has been increasing in non recessionary years. The stagnation argument is false. People move up within and out of the quintiles.

Government spending does not grow the economy.

There is no need to spend more on education. Set up competition.

The government already has ~ 50 training programs. Business is the best training resource.

 

How is renegotiating trade agreements going to destroy global markets ??

 

Recessions and depressions occur for specific reasons and gdp growth goes negative.

 

No, Carter didn't cause our inflation problem. You're flat wrong about the sequence of events in the late 1970s and early 1980s.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Volcker



The recession started late in the Carter Administration.

Reagan didn't veto spending bills, so don't assume he didn't want the stimulus. He was an economist who got his education during the Depression. He saw the economy grow a real 10% per year during Roosevelt's first term.

 

You're flat wrong if you think markets don't exist and there are no laws of demand and supply.

 

None of those matter. They're lies that conceal that there is no truth. There is nothing at the heart of capital. It's just a despot

 

You appear incapable of assimilating what's happening to wages even when the facts are staring you in the face. There are reasons why wages behave the way they do which is what people who care about the issue have looked at.

Oh? What if we eliminated government spending on education? You don't think that would impact the economy? What if we stopped spending on police? Or fire departments?

Competition will help if it's real competition, not pretend competition like we have in our healthcare system. But there's a problem with a lack of money that improved efficiency through privatization won't be able to solve. Teacher salaries are enough portion of the cost of education that getting rid of government bureaucracy and inefficiency can't by itself fix the problem.

Often it is, but what hospital is going to train its own specialist doctors when they're easily poached by other HMOs? Why aren't hospitals doing it now when we have a doctor shortage?

 

It is what us in STEM degrees used to make fun of as "soft science".

Kinda like how they call it political "science" and other types, I was never a fan of calling something that didn't have a definitive answer as "science" but it is nonetheless important to study.

But social science and political science are annoying because they are based on assumptions and opinions.

 

People basically just dont understand what "The Market" is, no matter how you try to manipulate it, the market is going to go away. Like you said, supply and demand rules all.

The big thing that no body wants to talk about, instead we just blame one president or the other, is automation.

There is nothing anyone can do to stop that and it is going to make those who can do, REALLY do.

I am actually leaning more towards a "universal income" after a few conversations I have had on other (less emotional forums than this).

We need to roll all the entitlements into one thing and let everyone have the income based on the rules we set. BUT those people who want this, need to understand how to balance a check book and if they run out of money, well then too bad,

We need a system that helps people, especially those that really need the help, as well as a system that holds people accountable for their stupid actions. The problem we have now and my concern with "Universal Income" is that if you give a mouse a cookie, he will want a glass of milk.

If we do something of the sort, we need to be ok with letting these people "reap what they sow". If they spend 100% of their "income" on drugs and have no money for the rest of the week for food, hate to say it, but sucks to be them. They should learn their lesson next time and in the meantime can use a free shelter for a meal.

Have had two friends addicted to drugs now and you cannot help them until they hit rock bottom and want to help themselves. While there are people that need perpetual help, I think there is an even larger percentage of people taking advantage of the system and simply are used to taking a hand out.

 

If we stopped spending on those things AND had to stop paying taxes for those things? It would be interesting, that is for sure.

Those who do a good job of teaching their kids themselves would do just fine. Communities which "self regulate" and basically have police for 99% of the time just looking for speeding tickets. These people likely wouldn't even notice.

Would they notice the MASSIVE tax cut of not having to pay for public education, or for police? Damn right they would.

Not advocating for this, there are definitely social services we obviously need. But the government doesnt really "make" anything, they just help with the velocity of money and "spreading the wealth" as they say.

The funniest thing about the government is how horribly inefficient they are. If anyone in my industry knows it is a government account they immediately jack up the prices because they know that the purchasers don't really care, they are held to a much lower standard as to trying to save money.

Private companies make sure they are ALWAYS getting the best deal

 

There's some dirt people won't eat.

We have a trade surplus (goods and services) with Canada. Trump sends his mouthpieces out to claim we have a trade deficit by citing only the goods part of trade with them. He also goaded them by slapping a tariff on their airliner they sold to Delta that our own trade tribunal overturned. But by then the damage was done and their airliner eas sold to Airbus. Why all this? So Boeing could snap up the Brazilian airliner, Enbraer. You may not understand the play, but Canadians do. Tough business tactics? All is fair if you can get away with it?

Well, maybe--but Canadians aren't rubes and there will be payback. They're our largest export market and Trump may make a deal impossible by playing too much hardball. Canada just signed TPP which is downpayment on the payback.

 

"Recession" and "depression" are terms we used to describe negative growth, and of course there are reasons. What's your point?

 

I wonder if you even know what the law of supply and the law of demand are about.

 

Carter was responsible for a misery index of 23.

 

Negative growth is a recession or depression.

 

Trump looks out for the US first. He threatens tarrifs as a hammer to force trading partners to remove trade barriers on our exports to them.

 

You covered a lot of ground and I appreciate all the thought involved. I agree about giving people help and then expecting they will manage their affairs. If they won't or can't, I'm still thinking we should help but then we call the shots. There should be no endless supply of money. I think we would do well to expect something from the able-bodied. If you're too young, too old, or too sick, I think kindness says we should do something to help.

 

Yes, and your point is...?

 

Trump is a thug, not some honest guy sticking up for America.

Canada sells us raw materials, we sell them manufactured goods and services, we have a trade surplus with them, Trump screwed their company selling airliners and forced its sale to Airbus all to help Boeing to force the sale of the Brazilian airliner to Boeing. Our own trade tribunal said it was wrong.

There's some dirt Canada won't eat and there will be payback.