Biden now ahead in the polls?

Like I've been saying, it ain't over 'till it's over.

Headlines on Drudge:
BIDEN BEATING TRUMP IN MAJORITY OF POLLS...
https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-donald-trump-polls-presidential-election-2024-1888914
JOE NOW CLEAR FAVE IN ONLINE BET...
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election
REPUBLICANS PANIC ABOUT MAGA MELTDOWN...
https://www.axios.com/2024/04/10/republicans-mike-johnson-motion-to-vacate-greene

Even on RCP, trump is only .2 ahead, used to be 2 points, now it's 1/10 of that, and a few weeks ago, the chart on the right side was ALL RED, now there's a lot o'blue. also, Rasmussen is an outlier (land lines), take that one out and Biden is AHEAD.

Biden is coming around the long stretch, and will be galloping ahead to win 2024!

Did I mention ABORTION is on many ballots in swing states? Hmmmm?

Yay!!!!

 

No offense but polls are absolutely meaningless. Case in point 2016 election.

 

True that the numbers in polls are meaningless. But what is useful are the tendency those numbers show. Whoever is going up, is most likely going up, and whoever is going down is becoming less popular. Of course the problem is that we don't know what the actual number to start with is. And it is still too early for even that to matter. But the OP has a point in providing this information to MAGAs who have been submitting poll results as if they determined the results over a year in advance.

 

Yeah, that's the ticket, when the polls are going your way, they are the cat's pajamas, but when they aren't, they are 'meaningless'. Got it.

Anyway.....

No, the 2016 polls nailed it, Hillary won by 3 million votes, which comported to the polls. What the polls cannot predict are any flukes of the electoral college which gave the election to Trump (that is called a 'fluke').

I figure Biden has to win by 5 million votes to win the electoral college. It's True, Repubs have a built in advantage.

 

Show even one post from me where I was EVER favor of any poll. Go ahead...I'll wait. Also...see post #6

Meanwhile, no....it wasn't a fluke. Popular vote is meaningless as I would imagine you should be aware of.

 

Those who've posted polls crowing about Trump being up are fools and I've made a point to let them also know how meaningless those polls are.

 

I really only care about the polls maybe 1-2 weeks before the election. And even then not much.

 

I didn't mean 'you' per se, but the right, in general.

No, it was a fluke. The framers NEVER intended on the popular vote to be a minority, hence the fact that it has only been a minority 5 times in history, of which two of them were in the last 2 decades. And the popular vote has some import, given that it has been tracked for over 200 years. This idea that it is meaningless is merely a right wing thing and a rather late one, at that, given that in the last 30 years, they have only won the popular vote once. Believe me, anyone who tells me that they don't care about the popular vote is lying. Winning the majority is the essence of democracy and majority rule exists in:

Of all the elections held in America, below, only the presidential ticket is via indirect democracy.. Laws are enacted by representatives, as well, but not all laws.

Federal Elections

1. Presidential Elections: Every four years, voters select presidential electors, who in turn elect the President and Vice President through the Electoral College.
2. Congressional Elections:
   • Senate: Senators are elected directly by voters from their states every six years.
   • House of Representatives: Members are elected directly by voters from their congressional districts every two years.

State Elections

1. Governor: The head of the executive branch of each state is elected directly by the voters of that state.
2. State Legislatures: Members of the state's legislative body (both upper and lower houses, where applicable) are elected directly by the voters.
3. Other Statewide Offices: Depending on the state, this can include positions like Lieutenant Governor, Secretary of State, Attorney General, and others, all elected directly by voters.

Local Elections

1. Mayoral Elections: Mayors of cities and towns are elected directly by the residents of those municipalities.
2. City Councils / County Commissions: Members of these local governing bodies are elected directly by the people living in the respective cities or counties.
3. School Boards: School board members, who oversee local education policies and administration, are elected directly by voters in the school district.
4. Other Local Offices: Various other local positions, such as sheriffs, county clerks, district attorneys, and more, are also filled through direct election by local voters.

Judicial Elections
Some states and local jurisdictions also elect judges directly, including positions on the state supreme court, appellate courts, and local trial courts.

Special District Elections
Voters within special districts, such as water districts, fire districts, and other types of special-purpose districts, directly elect board members or commissioners who govern those entities.

Direct Democracy Mechanisms
Aside from electing officials, direct democracy in the U.S. also takes the form of:

• Ballot Initiatives/Propositions: Where voters can propose and vote directly on new laws or changes to existing laws.
• Referendums: Where legislation passed by a legislative body is put to a direct vote by the electorate.
• Recalls: Where voters can remove an elected official from office before their term is completed.

This enumeration covers the main types of elections and positions for which individuals are elected directly by the electorate in the United States, spanning from the federal to the local levels, including some elements of direct democracy.

 

Fair enough. As for the rest of your post…we’ll just have to agree to disagree that it was a fluke.

 

Given that it has only happened 5 times of the last 2 1/3 centuries, and in the 19th century, only once, it is reasonable to presume that having the popular vote comport to the electoral vote was the intended design.

"...that fundamental maxim of republican government, which requires that the sense of the majority should prevail." --Alexander Hamilton, federalist 22.

Clearly, the framers never intended for a minority vote of any kind to win in any election. They did their best to structure the EC so that they would agree, but understood it was possible, but not likely. Which was the case for many decades after the constitution was ratified.

Therefore, it is a 'fluke', by any reasonable definition of the term.

 

I've tried to qualify polls, that might be misleading. Not sure if that is an apples comparison.

For example, Rasmussen is an outlier with it's landline surveys, and remove them, and Biden wins!

 

But candidates campaign based on the EC. Hillary did a crappier job trying to sway the swing voters. It's that simple.

 

I don't keep track of who I've posted it to. I just know I have posted such comments more than a few times.

 

Biden is NOT ahead in the polls.

 

That wasn't the point.

 

It was for me.

 

I was just trying to determine if you are being consistent.

If you didn't criticize zorro, for the same thing, then you should start.

 

I actually prefer Biden be behind in the polls, if people think Trump can't win, they are less likely to get out and vote

 

I'm going to vote early and I'm going to vote often and I'm going to encourage all of my friends to do the same thing ! Make America less sucky again !

Come hell or high water even death won't stop me !!!

 

not worth it if you get caught, course if in a Republican State and vote Trump might only get hand slap

 

May your great grandparents cadavas rest in peace!

 

They have to rise from the grave every 4 years to make sure and vote. Lol

 

I can only comment on what I see.

 

Trends are much more important than the horserace numbers, that I agree with. There’s a graph right below the first set of polls. On that graph you can see how Biden and Trump flip flopped the lead from 2022 until September 2023 in which Trump took the lead and has led ever since according to the average of all the recent polls. But since the beginning of March, Trump’s lead has shrunk from 2.5 points down to 0.2.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden

Also consider most of these polls have an MOE of plus or minus 3 points, on average. Even since September of last year, that still means basically a tie as the margin Trump has led is within the MOE. Now those polls give the respondent only two choices, Trump or Biden. I’m more partial to the 5-way race or polls.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/po...24/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein

What I study is swing voters, independents, they’re the election deciders. Then I keep tract of voter enthusiasm or lack thereof this year when it comes to voting. Along with the favorable/unfavorable numbers of both major party candidates. History shows folks usually won’t vote for someone they dislike. I also like polls that list more than just two candidates with options for third party candidates, will not vote and undecided which the two candidate polls do not include. For me voter turnout, especially among independents, swing voters is very important. What are swing voters planning on doing, voting for one or the other major party candidate, a third-party candidate, are they planning on voting or staying home, are they undecided. We all know how republicans and democrats will vote, they’re boring. Swing voters hold the key, not neither major party’s base. One has to delve deep into the polls, the horserace numbers is meaningless. Then compare this to elections past using past exit polls to the polling results today. The results are very interesting.

Then there’s the electoral college, which is another very interesting aspect of this.

 

Hard to believe so many people are for open borders. Hard to believe so many people are OK with inflation. Hard to believe so many people are OK with the price of gas. Hard to believe . . .