Can We Efffectively Deal With Population Growth? IMO the answer is NO!

Discussion in 'Environment & Conservation' started by OldManOnFire, Feb 21, 2013.

  1. wyly

    wyly Well-Known Member

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    5 times? I find that hard to believe but I'm open to any evidence that you have showing that...
     
  2. wyly

    wyly Well-Known Member

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    it's evident you have no idea what a sub-specie is otherwise you never would have referred to "races"...

    colours are ugly? that's pure undisguised racism...
     
  3. OldManOnFire

    OldManOnFire Well-Known Member

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    Today we have about 315 million people in the USA, with a workforce of about 155 million or just less than 50% participation rate, IMO with a 'true' unemployment rate of about 12% or around 18 million Americans. IF...we project ahead to 2050, using the same rates we have today, when we have 400 million Americans, we will have about 190 million of them in the workforce, and IF we have 12% unemployment we will have about 23 million Americans out of work or under-employed.

    I have read government projections of the 'participation rate' and it continues to decline to scary numbers like 40%. All I saw was data with no explanation for the data. But if we assume a 40% participation rate, when we have 400 million Americans the workforce would be about 160 million...which is ONLY 5 million more workers than we have today! If we assume the 2050 federal government will cost the same per capita as today's government, which is about $11,111, if we multiply this by 400 million (excluding inflation) we get around $4.4 trillion while today's government is $3.5 trillion.

    A couple of implications...IMO;

    First, if the worker participation rate does drop, and unemployment remains similar to today, we will have another 30 million + 5 million Americans who will need heavy government assistance.

    Second, in 2050 a 160 million Americans/business will need to fund $4.4 trillion government expenses in taxation. Today our 155 million are incapable of funding a $3.5 trillion government expense...we are only funding about $2.3 trillion. Either the USA must have the Mother of all tax hikes, or accumulate another $35-$40 trillion in debt, or close the doors!

    Play around with the numbers and assumptions but no matter we have population increase, lower participation rate, higher government costs...
     

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