Cuba -- big changes are coming

Discussion in 'Central & South America' started by Doug1943, Jan 1, 2016.

  1. Doug1943

    Doug1943 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Sorry ... duplicate post. Ignore this.
     
  2. Doug1943

    Doug1943 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Maybe not a duplicate post . I couldn't find the 'original'.So I've written another one.

    I had a three-week vacation in Cuba in November, staying in private homes and travelling around the island by bus. I tried to talk to as many people as possible. Since I got back, I've started reading about Cuba, both books, and websites. I'd like to share some observations with everyone.

    First: It's POOR. You may have heard about the average monthly salary, which is about $25. Note that Cubans get free health care and education, pay no income taxes (but they do pay other taxes, often high ones, if they are self-employed), and get a variety of other government benefits. Nonetheless, IT IS POOR. It's better if you have relatives living abroad who can send you money, and/or own your own home or car so that you capture part of the tourist trade, or work in the tourist economy some other way, but it's still POOR.

    However: the poverty is 'genteel' poverty. I didn't see an underclass, like you find in capitalist countries. You could walk down an unlit street in Old Havana at 11pm and your worst danger was potholes. (Yes, I am sure there is SOME violent crime, including against tourists. But compared to other Latin American countries, and even to certain areas in large American cities, it felt safe.)

    Second: No one I talked to was a real supporter of the government. Of course, it's a police state, so people have to be a bit careful in what they say. Nevertheless, people were pretty open in being very unhappy with the situation they found themselves in. Everyone wanted the embargo to be lifted, but I didn't encounter anyone who blamed their situation mainly on it. A typical encounter: our bus stopped at a complex built for tourists, on a highway between cities where you could get something to eat, and also buy books from a bookstall. There were books by Fidel Castro, Che Guevara, books on the CIA's Bay of Pigs invasion, etc. The woman behind the stall looked at me while I was browsing these books, and said, apologetically, 'The government makes me sell these'. I would say the mood among the people I talked to was exasperation,and resignation, rather than anger, .

    Third: The state-controlled top-down command economy DOES NOT WORK at least in terms of getting consumer goods into the hands of the people. I don't care what official statistics might say, the on-the-ground reality is obvious. And the reason it doesn't work is clear: if being able to buy a bar of soap in Santiago depends on some central planner in Havana allocating the right number of inputs in the Plan ... then there will not be soap in Santiago.

    Fourth: Everyone knows this. Raul Castro, who took over from his brother a few years ago, has significantly liberalized the economy, or has tried to. People can open little cafes in their homes (but can't seat more than 24 people), can now hire other people besides their relatives to work for them, (but cannot advertise), etc. Various state enterprises have been put on a pay-you-own-way basis, or made into 'co operatives' -- but the bureaucracy has resisted this. No one knows what changes are coming, but I would be willing to bet that they will be significant.

    Fifth: I didn't run into any anti-Americanism. In fact, many of the taxis and buses had little American flags flying. I don't think this means these people would welcome the 82nd Airborne dropping in, but it does mean there is lots of goodwill for ordinary Americans. (We have reputation as big tippers, I read, which can't hurt.)

    However: I was there for just three weeks, do not speak more than primitive tourist Spanish, and my selection of people to talk towas not random. I spoke mainly to people who were catering for foreign tourists. Maybe I would have heard other things had I spoken to campesinos in the field, or soldiers, or students at the universities.

    Sixth: Cuba is not a Caribbean North Korea, despite what some Cubans living in America seem to think. They have not executed anyone in over ten years (and that last was a particularly nasty boat-hijacker), if you try to demonstrate or hold a meeting against the government you are likely to be arrested and then released after a few days. However, there are still some people whom Human Rights Watch and Amnesty classify as political prisoners -- about fifty.

    (Side note: the Cuban exile community, at least the people whose blogs I've read, is not a very reliable source of information about Cuba. It's useful to read their stuff, but it's sort of like reading North Korea on the US -- there may be grains, even nuggets, of truth there, but the whole effect of attitude is one of extreme subjectivity and no respect for any truth that doesn't conform to their worst prejudices.)

    The best source of information on Cuba comes from the blogs and other online publications written by Cubans themselves. Believe it or not, Cubans can be very critical of their own system -- and I mean totally critical -- on line. No doubt this is because, for economic and technical reasons, few Cubans can access the internet on a regular basis. There are too few hotspots, and it's too expensive. (An hour's browsing costs a week's wages.) However, this will be changing for the better, I believe.

    In this respect, I would like to encourage everyone to look at the remarkable publication, The Havana Times, available in English and Spanish. Go on, click on the link, and read some of the articles. I guarantee you will be surprised at what Cubans are saying.
     

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