Do we lack the numbers to win a war if our technology is taken away from us?

Not armored or mechanized infantry divisions we can't. The big boys still require boat rides.

 

Which is what the Military Sealift Command and Prepositioning Ships are for. Did you entirely miss when I talked about that?

Yes, armored and mechanized divisions also.

We have over a division worth of heavy assets like tanks, personnel carriers, field hospitals, artillery, and everything else loaded up already on ships, about half at sea and the other half in ports scattered around the world that can put to sea very shortly. They sail to a port as we are flying them men there from another base. Ship ties up at the port, the troops unload their equipment and off they go. That is what we used in Korea, Vietnam, Gulf War I and II, Afghanistan, it is something the US is an expert in.

Oh, and we can also airlift them in. We have 52 C-5 Galaxy heavy lifters. Each one can carry 2 M1 Abrams tanks, 2 M3 Bradly Fighting Vehicles, and their entire crew and all maintenance personnel needed. We no longer field "Armored Divisions" anymore, have not done so for decades. But even so, we can still airlift them easily. And not just the C-5, the C-17 Globemaster (we have 117 in inventory) can carry a single M1 Abrams, all the personnel and equipment they would need, and additional pallets of equipment.

You really do not know what the capabilities of our airlift command are, do you? We can literally airlift any of our military equipment needed, including tanks, artillery, air and missile defense systems, helicopters, almost anything. Theoretically we can even airlift disassembled airlift aircraft inside of our airlift aircraft, but that is rather silly (but we have done that on return flights, to return damaged aircraft to the US for repair).

For a hypothetical attack on Taiwan, we could have most of a division starting to arrive within 24-48 hours. That would be the Marines sitting on Okinawa, 2-3 Regiments and all of their equipment. And within a day or so (depending on their location at the time), Battalions and Regiments that are on board the amphibious ships will start arriving. All armored units on those ships will already have both their equipment and men.

We always have at least an Armored and Infantry Brigade worth of equipment on or near Diego Garcia, 9 days sailing from Taiwan. Just work out the timing, the men could easily be flown in, and have their encampment ready when their tanks and other equipment arrive.

In fact, in such a scenario, I can already make some predictions as to what the US response would be.

First of all, expect the Navy to start shifting it's presence sharply. Probably 2 Carriers to the area, on resting between China and Taiwan (to act as a blocker and imply that more hostile action would likely damage a US asset and be responded to). And the second one to work on the (back side) of Taiwan, largely providing air defense assets while it is safely in the lee of the island.

All Amphibious Assets in the area will already be fired up and steaming on the way. This would range from everything from equipment staged in Diego Garcia (9 days), Guam (10 days), and Japan (10-12 days), to even the big RORO ships in San Francisco (40 days). The THAAD unit that normally bounces around the Pacific (but is most commonly in Hawaii) would be loaded up in C-130 aircraft, and at least 2-3 PATRIOT Battalions would be loaded up at Fort Bliss and flown over also. And maybe the THAAD unit there also. The Airfield outside of Bliss would be one of the busiest airports in the world in short order, as that is also the home of the last US Armored Division. Guard and Reserve units would likely be called up, and brought to Bliss for some refresher training as the division there is airlifted to Taiwan to meet the equipment already arriving by ship. Then after a week or so of training, the Guard and Reservists would do the same thing. Each arriving a few days before the ships with their equipment arrive.

We have been doing (in practice and real) this exact same dance for decades now. When we entered Iraq in 1990, we airlifted very few hard assets (other than Missile Defense) just for the conflict. What we did first was offload the massive amounts we already had on our prepositioned Sealift Command ships. Only then did they return to the US and pick up more. The only major exception to this is our Air and Missile defense systems. Those get constant upgrades, and require constant maintenance and exercise that can only be done on the ground, so are never pre-staged on them. But every system from SHORAD and PATRIOT to THAAD can be airlifted on any of our cargo aircraft of C-130 and larger. We even regularly held drills at Fort Bliss loading our equipment onto a mockup C-130 deck. In less than 6 hours we could have an entire Battalion loaded (18 launchers) and ready to go.

https://www.google.com/maps/place/F...030f1f2cd3accb!8m2!3d31.812438!4d-106.4213208

There are the two "Training skids" that we used at Biggs Army Airfield, part of the Fort Bliss complex. That is how we trained loading our equipment into C-130, C-17, and C-5 aircraft. And within just a few miles are most of the assets of an entire Air Defense Brigade and an Armored Division. That is where a large chunk of our forces in Iraq and Afghanistan left from, after training for a week to a month in the desert part of the base. The facilities are huge, and only used for the purpose of movement of large amounts of troops and equipment from the US to wherever they are needed.

And if you look just north of the runway, you can see the large rail marshalling yard, where any equipment to be airlifted would be brought in by rail. Offloaded there, then put right onto aircraft. It is also heavily used in the summer by Guard and Reserve units that come in with their own equipment do do training in the huge training areas of the base.

In fact, this is an area I look at all the time, and this time I noticed that one of the PATRIOT Battalions is not there an entire motorpool is empty). But going north to Tobin Wells, I can see 2 of the 3 Batteries set up at the DUST training facility (basically a facility powered by commercial power so they do not have to be running the massive generators). If I wanted to spend an hour or so I could probably find the third Battery in the desert somewhere, but don't see the point, I know there are out there somewhere.

 

And I suppose during all this the Chinese military will just be sitting around eating fried rice.....

 

Did I not say that the first to be arriving would likely be the Carriers? One in front of Taiwan to protect the island from attack, one behind to add more coverage? And there is not much that China could do to stop the arrival of US aircraft from the East, they lack the "legs" to stop them.

And the entire PLAN is not much of a threat to 2 Carrier Groups, much less so once the Amphibs start to arrive. After dropping off their supercargo, the Helicopter Carriers would take up positions and operate as "baby flattops" with their own fighters. The other amphib ships (like the LSD class) would return to port to pick up more troops and equipment, as half of the LPH class would remain in Taiwan, the other half would escort the landing ships.

This is something the US has been doing and training in since WWII. And yes, China could not be doing much, because there is not much they could do short of launching nukes. And the moment the first nuke leaves the silo, it is no longer a war, it is a nuclear war which is completely different. I am talking entirely conventional, and there is not much that China could do. We currently have 3 Carrier Strike Groups in the Pacific, the USS Reagan, Roosevelt, and Nimitz. Any one of them by itself is close to the power of the entire PLAN. Two of them, and the US has much more power than the PLAN. All three? Overwhelming force. And I am not even talking about the assets that would be arriving from elsewhere like aircraft.

And do not be mistaken that it would only be the US, I do not. Taiwan also has such defense treaties with Canada, Japan, Australia and New Zealand. And it could be guaranteed that most of NATO would join in, including France, Germany, and the UK. As well as other nearby countries that might be concerned "they were next". Ranging from the Philippines and South Korea to Vietnam and others.

But please enlighten us, what could China possibly be doing? Sure they would get in a hard "first strike", but as it would take about 2 days for their landing craft to arrive (even assuming they were somehow loaded up undetected), that gives 2 days air assets to swarm into the island. We have aircraft all over the region, from Japan and Diego Garcia to Guam, Hawaii, and more.

And I am aware that the PLAAF has 2 airbases about 100 miles from Taiwan, but they lack enough airlift to do more than a few token troop insertions. They could throw up a lot of fighters, but Taiwan has over 200 F-16 (or clones) of their own, as well as AWACS birds, and over 100 "trainers" ranging from the F-16 to the Mirage 2000 which would quickly be armed, and actually operated by highly experienced instructor pilots.

 

I think you are misreading the “war”. There may be a “dust up” here and there, but China is not ready.
China’s mid range goals are to gain undisputed control over commerce in the South China Sea, isolating their biggest future competitor, India. China seeks to economically dominate all of Asia, then recreate a modern and militarized Silk Road into Europe, forcing the USA out.
The only practical way out for the US is data security and cutting back trade with China and hoping the CCP implodes. (Which it might.)

 

Actually while a C-5 is theoretically capable of carrying two M-1 Abrams tanks at once, IIRC they've never actually done so in operations. At any rate there is a lot more to a heavy division than just the tanks. Airlift 169 Abrams (the C-5s plus the C-17s) and you still don't get more than a fraction of the vehicles to the theater required by a mechanized infantry division.

 

We have always depended on having allies, contrary to the "thinking" of the Village Idiot...

 

We went eye-to-eye with the Soviets for decades with nuclear weapons as the ultimate force multiplier. They knew they would never overrun us with numbers of men or tanks.

And this is what our air forces did to the Republican Guard fleeing Kuwait.

Yes. Decisive military action.

 

China is beginning to move its manufacturing to poorer countries and is on the way to becoming more of a service economy like Europe, the U.S., Japan, South Korea, etc. Of course, they have a ways to go.

Exports to the United States are less than 4% of their GDP. It explains why Trump's go-it-alone pressure tactics got spit out of China.

 

Which is why we have the Military Sealift Command. Already loaded with all the equipment needed to support multiple divisions, staged around the world already.



I was listing the aircraft to show capability, but in reality they would not be bringing over tanks. They would be bringing over other equipment, like air defense systems, MLRS, HIMARS, artillery, and personnel. Those are much more efficient in a defensive operation than tanks would be. The tanks would come from prepositioning ships. As well as those that the MEUs would have with them.

2 Watson class RORO ships alone has more than enough vehicles to support an Armored Division, as well as most of an Infantry Division. And we have 8 of them in the MSC, already loaded and deployed to the MPS in Guam, Saipan, and Diego Garcia.

 

Like most countries, most of their GDP is entirely internal. Cut off trade with any nation, and they will still have a healthy GDP just from what is bought and sold internally.

But the US also makes up the destination of 20% of their exports.

Then factor in the 40% of their manufacturing that is done for US owned companies (Apple being a the biggest one). Start an embargo, and 20% of their exports and 40% of their manufacturing vanishes overnight. No more iPhones made there, no more Cosco coming here. No more manufacturing for Dell, Levi-Strauss, or any of the other companies that set up facilities there.

Myself, I have long believed we need to return most of our manufacturing capabilities back to the US, and spread what remains overseas among many countries, and not just one.

Oh, and China also imports about 20% of their raw materials from the US. Primarily steel, wood, and food. They are the major country for buying our surplus Navy ships, as the high quality steel used in them can then be refines into much more steal of suitable quality for more common items.

 

Even if we cut off all Chinese imports, it would leave 96+% on their GDP intact. The TPP was a more coordinated effort to contain China and will have to be revived as an idea at least.

Returning $2/hour factory jobs here and paying $20/hour is going to reduce our stsndard-of-living. That said, I think you're right about diversifying overseas production.

Other than outright incompetence, I don't know why Trump appears to believe we can effectively lever up on China on our own.

 

No, quite the opposite. In fact, it can revitalize much of the country if done right.

There is one thing to be said for how Korea came into the US to manufacture their vehicles. They did not do what Detroit and then Japan did. You see, they did not set up huge factories in the major cities like LA and the Bay Area. Instead of the massive plants in a high cost area like NUMII (now Tesla), they spread their facilities among several areas, in smaller communities. Labor was cheaper, expenses were lower, and they got a lot of support because they were all major shots in the arm to the local economies.

What these companies need to do is to repeat that. Not try and rebuild what had been done before, it was those massive shoe and textile areas in places like New England that ultimately doomed them. In those areas, inflation was faster than growth, and ultimately they collapsed.

Instead, rebuild, but do it in smaller towns. Instead of a massive factory in a major city with a huge workforce, build smaller ones spread around the country. Employ a few hundred workers in each, spread the risk and expenses. Putting in a factory to build iPhone cases in say Montana, Kansas, and Louisiana instead of a single large factory in San Jose will be many times cheaper, and give those areas a huge shot in the arm (where as the Bay Area would hardly even notice it).

Myself, I laughed as I saw Solyndra implode in just 6 years. They built a huge facility in Fremont, California. Some of the most expensive land in the country, and where the wages were among the highest in the country. And I have little doubt that if they had done the same thing in say New Mexico or South Carolina, they might still be around today. And there is a reason why Elron Musk set up shop in that same area. He wanted to build in New Mexico, but got "an offer he could not refuse" when the GM-Toyota plant was offered to him. But notice, almost all of his newest ventures have not been in big cities like that.

In fact, to get an idea how slick Elron Musk was, Toyota paid him to take their own factory. Toyota closed NUMMI in 2010, and then in came Elron. Toyota bought $50 million in Tesla stock, then sold them the plant for $42 million. They literally got the plant for stock, and made an $8 million profit. If not for that, Tesla would never have been making their cars there.

And yes, larger megaplants are often more "efficient", especially if you are at the level of China. But by the 1980's, most US companies had learned about JIT from Japan, and were incorporating it into their own operations. And the beauty of JIT ("Just In Time manufacturing" - commonly known as "The Toyota Way") is that it is mostly how to handle the logistics, it can in the long run drastically reduce costs. That is how Japan took over much of the electronics and automotive industry from the US. And most US companies left follow similar techniques. No more massive plants where everything is made onsite, and massive warehouses with huge stacks of parts and assembled products. Much smaller inventories, using the logistics capability to feed supplies as needed. And also manufacturing and shipping the finished products as needed, without the need to the massive shipments that were the norm 40 years ago.

And if anything, one thing the US excels in is logistics.