Excess Deaths

Like???

 

So asking for accurate COVID-19 data is akin to demonizing a bunch of Satan-worshipping, child molesting cannibals? You’re being a tad melodramatic here.

 

Is that so?

Well we'll take your word for it. You seem well versed in their "philosophy"

 

But then

https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-53997203

How Covid-19 myths are merging with the QAnon conspiracy theory

 

Moving averages. Do you know the difference between a 200 day moving average and a 1 day?
Bollinger bands?


Actual numbers of deaths from all cause are not higher. Did all other previously existing causes of death drop so much that all cause totals are still lower than last year, despite all of the "covid" deaths?

 

Total number of deaths from all causes is higher than last year.

 

Are you disputing the numbers in the OP?

 

Great...compare the moving average from April to October against the moving average for the same time period over the last five years.

Oh wait if you do that you get close to 300,000 excess deaths.

That won't work for you.

I guess you'll have to try something else

 

What's being disputed is the nonsensically cherry picked time period

 

Yes. The quoted figure in the OP "CDC 2,203,637 people have died through October 4, 2020." Is wrong. That figure does not include number of total deaths in January 2020. The link states that the figure starts from week ending 1st February. Now if the OP includes the number of deaths that occurred from 1st January using the same analysis that the OP used, the total number of deaths estimated for 2020 would show over 250,000 excess deaths above 2019 figure

 

That's not how excess death studies work. You don't just compare two years. That's complete nonsense.

 

Nah. I've never reported anyone for any post, even though he reported me last week after I defended a religious minority in New York who he accused of being "disease spreaders".

Speech we don't like is what needs to be defended, and liberal freedom of speech allows some to show their a$$.

A couple people insult me with every thing I write, exposing the content of their character.

I find them amusing most days so I would prefer they stay and play.

 

My "math" is raw data. The actual numbers reported by CDC.

Your chart is what experts predicted would happen and compared actual numbers against their prediction. Actual numbers after the event are better than predictive models which haven't happened.

 

. . . the whole point of excess deaths is that it is more deaths than would be predicted based on past data. That's the entire point. If you check out the actual graph, you can easily see why the numbers we are seeing now are remarkable.

 

The same place. You mean data published by CDC kind of "same place"?

 

I did mean the 14th. Sorry for the typo. I posted links to the CDC pages from which I pulled the numbers.

 

But we have 2.5 months left in the year before all the counters start over fresh. The math I added was to take what happened the last 11 weeks of 2019 and added that to the first 41 weeks of actual data for this year to get an estimate for 2020.

 

If we had approx. 2.8 million deaths in 2017, approx. 2.8 million and 2018, approx. 2.8 million in 2019, then approx 2.8 million deaths per year is pretty consistent.

It looks like we're going to come in around 2.8 million deaths in 2020.

 

I'm looking at real data. It looks pretty unremarkable, except perhaps, that we have attributed Covid as a cause of a large number of peoples' deaths who would have died in 2020 from some other cause.

 

You can look at the actual CDC graph on excess deaths if you want. Others have posted it.

 

If you actually take a look at the CDC data, you will see that you are incorrect. Check out post #3.

 

I see that you have ignored the post pointing out that your figure for deaths from all causes for 2020 is wrong.

 

36 weeks, not 41 weeks. The total deaths figure you quoted does not include January 2020

 

Only if you don't click the link and record the CDC figure.

I see 2,203,637 for 2020 through Oct 14th. What do you see?

 

Starting from 1st February. - 2/1/20

Table 1. Deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), pneumonia, and influenza reported to NCHS by sex and age group. United States. Week ending 2/1/2020 to 10/10/2020

Table 2. Deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), pneumonia, and influenza reported to NCHS by place of death, United States. Week ending 2/1/2020 to 10/10/2020.*