https://www.marketwatch.com/story/c...ndex-for-may-11654090436?mod=newsviewer_click Thought the economy was supposed to be ramping up since the end of the "Pandemic" .. not ramping down ?! Thoughts ?
What factories? We don't make much anymore. Everything is made in China. Unless they are going to include American-owned factories in China, this statistic sounds off to me.
Sure we do .. we still have a manufacturing sector in the US .. and no -- this does not include fatories owned in China .. although it would include goods made in the US going to those factories. So .. having no idea about the manufacturing sector in the US .. on what basis are you claiming a stat about mfg is off ?
What are you talking about? The article you linked said that the PMI was up in May, despite a forecast that it would be down. In any case, I think anyone is uncertain right now (basically since the start of covid) how this will all end. Companies and governments both predicted a much deeper and longer downturn at the start of covid, which is why companies decrease production and governments poured money into economies. Now, that the money spigot has been closed, nobody really knows what to do, keep expanding supply capacities because of strong demand, or play it safe by not expanding supply and bet on a coming recession? If anyone could predict the future. Whatever happens, it is safe to say that we would be struggling with the same issues no matter who controls the WH, the Senate or the House. Why? Because the whole world is struggling with those same issues. In fact, it would be surprising if a crisis as deep and novel as covid would just blow over in a year and everyone would happily go back to normal. That's not how it works, the whole world economic system has to find its new steady state after that previous steady state was and still is being disrupted by covid.
Interesting -- the link was updated .. the info the op is from the link .. which was before the release of the data you provided .. was predicted to be negative but suprised .. but still last 5 months negative .. Yes .. now that the money tree is bare - what has the real economy got to show us ?. disruptions .. chaos .. uncertainty and now the invisible hand striking back.. after many years of abuse .. Inflation like never seen .. since the 70's cept this time unlike in the 70's instead of 3 times median annual salary to buy a house its 10x .. so 20% interest rates like in the 70's, are death to the average citizen.
What was the abuse on the invisible hand? Trump's tax cuts? In any case, this is how I think this will go: After people have blown through their savings, which were created by a year of staying home and getting stimulus checks, they will go back to the good, old-fashioned American way to make up for overspending: Put it on the credit card. So, credit card debt will keep going up, until people are so overextended that they will HAVE to stop spending, and we get the next recession. When will this happen? Next year, maybe, or in 2,3 or 5 years? Who knows, the market can be irrational for much longer than people think.
No idea what the invisible hand is have we .. while Trump also meddled .. the meddling was going on in earnest since 2008 ..but also prior to that trying to keep interest rates down - because the debt was so big. Now we have really big debt .. and interest rates are going up - which is eating up any economic gains and stifling further growth .. so your prediction may well be true ...
Sure sure, which is why the sane country of Japan which did not shut down their economy and did not get fascist with their citizens have an inflation rate of 2.5% compared to our 8.3%. I know data is irrelevant to the left. I know cause and effect is irrelevant to the left. But my God, the amount of gaslighting and cognitive dissonance to ignore this is gob smacking. And this is the just the beginning of the costs of the insane jackboots who destroyed everything. Some of the effects on children from masking and social isolation are being reported in the journals and we are looking at permanent learning disabilities, permanent lower iq and elevated mental illness. Thanks guys for destroying an entire generation of children to "protect" the most selfish generation.... baby boomers.
Sure, pick ONE country with cherry picked time frame. I can play that game too: Japan, due to demographics, has had close to 0 GDP growth for decades, battling with deflation. Currently, GDP growth is also at -1%. Not so great to have 2.5% inflation when REAL GDP growth is negative. At least, for the US REAL GDP growth is still positive. As to: "Thanks, guys for destroying an entire generation of children"; Is 1 million covid deaths not enough for you? What would have been your threshold for not hurting the economy by not having lockdowns and social distancing? 2 million? 5 million? There is no such thing as a free lunch. If you want an open economy during a pandemic, then you have to accept the ensuing death toll. At least, you are alive to complain about inflation. 1 million others are not that fortunate.
Why are you talking about Japan's demographics when that does not have a damn thing to do with their Covid response? Look at Japan's response to Covid and see how it affected their economy. Look at America's response to Covid and see how it affected our economy. Look at the number of small businesses shuttered in America and the number shuttered in Japan. Japan's death rate was far lower than America's and they did not use any fascism. They were open and honest with their people while our government/MSM lied and fear mongered. The results speak for themselves. Please show some intellectual curiosity. Decades ago that was what set American professors apart from the world. That time is long gone, now we have a bunch of ideologues intent on destroying America with their hate filled narrative. PS: this same effect was seen on the state level. This is why the largest migration in history from blue states to red states occurred in the past two years. The blue state response to Covid was economically catastrophic.
It's only going to get worse, thanks to the Biden-created US inflation. And the Biden administration will only continue to pretend it's not their fault. Here is Yellen making their latest excuses:
I don't think using Japan as an example helps your case. So, yes, let's look at the Japanese covid response: -High vaccination rate. -No mandatory lockdowns, but that wasn't needed because Japanese stay home when the government asks them to. -High average life expectancy and the average Japanese looks out for their health (diabetes rates are, for example, much lower than in the US). -Mask wearing is a feature in Japan, not a penalty imposed by the hated government, like in the US. The outcome: About 30,000 covid deaths in a country a bit more than 1/3 the population of the US, but with much higher population density. Compare that with 1 million deaths in the US. No wonder their economy didn't take that much of a hit when people were being responsible and took care they didn't spread covid. In contrast, many of the American idiots claimed covid was a Dem hoax, would go away in spring, that mask wearing was for the weak, who wanted government to protect them, that vaccines are useless or even dangerous.... Finally, in contrast to Americans, the Japanese actually have savings, on average $146,000 per household. So, there wasn't need for government assistance, unlike in the US, where people generally live paycheck to paycheck and are in 10,000s of credit card debt. So, yes, the Japanese response to covid was VASTLY superior to that of the US, on all levels from government to the individual.
Not sure we can blame poor Biden just yet .. sometimes when sleeping at wheel, car stays on road - too many unknowns still in play .. l
Classic video - Yellen prognosticating about future inflation - getting it completely wrong. Been playing the markets for many a decade .. one thing that you can bank on .. is that the prognostications coming out of central bankers and economists are no better than 50-50 .. you could have thrown a darts at the financial page of the newspaper and been just as accurate.
Of course, the prognostications are unreliable, because we are in uncharted territory. The last time we had an international pandemic of the same proportions, the Fed had JUST been established. The truth is that NOBODY can predict the market or a recession etc., in particular not after a worldwide pandemic that disrupted the whole world's economic system. If they could predict the market, they would be billionaires, and not Fed chairs. That's why the Fed always is reactive, following the trend that is already established by facts on the ground, rather than proactive. That's why the rate hikes are too late, but it is better too late than never. Now, the Biden haters are telling us that they predicted inflation. Well, first of all, Monday morning quaterbacking is easy. Second, they have predicted inflation whenever a Dem president was in office, because they are the same as Obama haters, who claimed starting in 2008 that there would be inflation any moment now. Well, how did that turn out? A broken clock is also correct -- once a day.
Well .. technically he is the one driving the car - albeit sleeping at the wheel .. Now who told Biden to drive the car that direction - the folks whispering in his ear .. like Xaviar in that Xmen movie when the freaky dude is controling his mind at the behest of Magneto .. this is another question now isn't it.. Who is Magneto in the equation
Yellen should do the honorable thing and resign "Yellen was hired for her financial acumen. She was supposed to be right. She was supposed to foresee inflation and guide national policy through these shoals. Yellen failed. She offers excuses, not candor." She said, "I think I was wrong then about the path that inflation would take. There have been unanticipated and large shocks to the economy that have boosted energy and food prices and supply bottlenecks that have affected our economy badly that I didn't at the time … fully understand. But we recognize that now." "Yellen didn't apologize." She tries to claim that it was unforeseeable that the destructive policies that Biden and Dems favored would lead here, yet, both Republicans and Democrats loudly warned Dems and Biden that this is exactly where it would lead and they denied it. Now they claim that it was "impossible to know" in advance? She's a dishonest liar and she needs to go. She cited a number of things other than the actual cause, "overspending by the government was." Initially "she said that spending would lead only to transitory inflation." Again she was wrong. "President Trump left office with 1.4% inflation. Biden didn't just double it. He didn't just triple it. He doubled and tripled it as inflation today is more than six times what he inherited." "Assurances from his treasury secretary that inflation was temporary accommodated Biden's policy of destroying the middle class by wiping out its savings and wages with never-ending price increases." "She pushed for the monetary policies that inflated prices. If she saw it coming and decided inflation said nothing, then she is a cad. If she didn't see it, she is a fool. But either way, she should do the honorable thing and quit. Resign. Retire. Otherwise, her saying she was wrong is merely an admission of the obvious." "Her ability to commit economic malpractice on a national scale without penalty and get off without even saying sorry is rubbing 11.9% food inflation in our faces."
$2.3 trillion or 10.8% of the economy. 12 million employees with an average income of $83,000. That seems rather significant.
The Federal Reserve has become a political body since 2008. It serves Congress and the President. It really is a useless institution, now.
