Military aspects of the Arab spring

dannyorbach · Feb 25, 2012

Dear all,

My name is Danny, and I'm a history PhD student at Harvard University, originally from Israel. My speciality is military revolts and coups d'etat in modern Japan, China, Germany and the Middle East.

I would love to have you comment on an article I have recently written, based on a Hebrew version published in Ynet news. "The Arab Spring the the Art of Revolution" offers some reflections on the popular uprisings in Egypt, Syria and Libya and their military aspects, in light of theories of popular revolutions.

The Arab Spring and the Art of Revolution

GeneralZod · Feb 25, 2012

Since the so called 'arab spring' was coined in usa. I am more intersted when the americans rise up and have their own 'spring'

Occupy wall street is on going, yes?

waltky · Feb 26, 2012

Thought that was what is already goin' on there...

Syria could descend into civil war: Clinton
Sunday, February 26, 2012 : There is "every possibility" that Syria could descend into a civil war which could be worsened by foreign intervention, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told the BBC on Sunday.

"I think that there's every possibility of a civil war. Outside intervention would not prevent that -- it would probably expedite it," Clinton said in an interview conducted in Rabat, Morocco. The comments were aired two days after Arab and Western foreign ministers met in Tunis to discuss the Syrian crisis and expressed sorrow at the ongoing bloodshed. "As you try to play out every possible scenario, there are a lot of bad ones that we are trying to assess -- while keeping our eye on the need to get humanitarian aid in, to try to do everything we possibly can to support the Syrian opposition... and we're trying to help push a democratic transition. "It took more than a year in Yemen, but finally there was a new president inaugurated. People kept being killed all the time, so these are very painful situations, there is no getting around it.

"I feel like everyone else watching the video, and I also have the additional information that comes from all kinds of intelligence sources. "I know how terrible things are in parts of Syria. Other parts are totally unaffected. So this is a difficult but necessary engagement for the world to stay focused on," she added. Before the weekend, Clinton said Friday that the international community must work to change Russia and China's positions against measures to stop the Syrian regime's crackdown. Both nations have vetoed two UN resolutions. She told the BBC on Sunday that there was still stiff opposition to any intervention.

"We still have a very strong opposition to foreign intervention, from inside Syria, from outside Syria," she said. "We don't have the United Nations Security Council approval, legitimacy, credibility, that comes with the international community making a decision. "We have a very dangerous set of actors in the region -- Al-Qaeda, Hamas, and those who are on our terrorist list, claiming to support the opposition. "You have many Syrians more worried about what could come next. So I don't want to say that nothing can be done, because I don't believe that and I feel like we re moving to the best of everyone's ability.

"But I want to make clear that, for anyone that is watching this horrible massacre that is going on, to ask yourself: okay, what do you do? "If you bring in automatic weapons, which you can maybe smuggle across the border -- okay, but what do they do against tanks and heavy artillery? So there's a much more complex set of factors." She added: "Part of the reason for the Tunis meeting was to see whose side who was on." During a press conference in Rabat, Clinton also appealed "to the members of the Syrian army to put their country first" and not shoot at civilians.

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'US to announce aerial blockade on Syria'
2.25.12, US readies for possibility of intervention without UN resolution, Asharq Al-Awsat reports, citing US military official; plan to include humanitarian aid to Syrian refugees on Turkey's border

The Pentagon is readying for the possibility of intervention in Syria, aiming to halt Syrian President Bashsar Assad's violent crackdown on protesters, the newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat reported Saturday, citing a US military offical. According to the official, the intervention scenario calls for the establishment of a buffer zone on the Turkish border, in order to receive Syrian refugees. The Red Cross would then provide the civilians humanitarian aid, before NATO crews would arrive from Turkey and join the efforts.

The measure would pave the way for the US to declare an aerial blockade on Syria. The intercession is to be modeled after NATO's efforts in Kosovo, which brought an end to the Serbian control of the region. NATO's plan of action included prolonged aerial shelling. The US' diplomatic efforts have yet to yield an effective international resolution that would stop the bloodshed. More than 100 protesters have died over the weekend alone, human rights activists said.

Russia, China to join aid efforts?

According to Asharq Al-Awsat, the Pentagon does not anticipate a change of heart on the part of China or Russia, who have opposed foreign intervention or sanctions against Syria. But the US expects the two nations to join the humanitarian aid efforts, support a ceasefire between the Syrian regime and rebels and send special UN envoys to investigate the developments in the country.

The next step in the reported US Department of Defense plan would be to appoint a team of UN observers to monitor the humanitarian aid, and enter Syria. They would need aerial protection, which would eventually lead to an aerial blockade. The military official said in the interview that the plan is a cautious one, and takes into account the Syrian air force's advanced capabilities. In his most forceful words to date on the Syrian crisis, US President Barack Obama said Friday the US and its allies would use "every tool available" to end the bloodshed by Assad's government.

More http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4194506,00.html
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waltky · Mar 7, 2012

Gonna sit on our hands like we did with Rwanda...

Panetta: Intervening in Syria risky
7 Mar.`12 WASHINGTON (AP) Defense Secretary Leon Panetta pushed back on Wednesday against fresh demands for U.S. military involvement in Syria to end President Bashar Assad's deadly crackdown on his people.

"What doesn't make sense is to take unilateral action right now," Panetta told the Senate Armed Services Committee about advising President Obama to dispatch U.S. forces. "I've got to make very sure we know what the mission is achieving that mission at what price." The panel's top Republican, Sen. John McCain of Arizona, said the estimated 7,500 dead and the bloodshed calls for U.S. leadership that a Democratic president, Bill Clinton, displayed during the Bosnian war in the 1990s and that Obama eventually showed on Libya last year. "In past situations, America has led. We're not leading, Mr. Secretary," McCain told Panetta.

The Pentagon chief later added that the United States is not holding back and is leading in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria and the war on terrorism. Testifying before the committee, Army Gen. Martin Dempsey and Panetta offered a cautionary note to the call by McCain to launch U.S. airstrikes against Assad's regime. "This terrible situation has no simple answers," Panetta told the panel.

Obama has resisted calls to step into the turmoil in Syria to stop Assad's crackdown on protesters. He told a news conference Tuesday that the international community has not been able to muster a campaign against Syria like the one in Libya that ousted Moammar Gadhafi last year. "For us to take military action unilaterally, as some have suggested, or to think that somehow there is some simple solution, I think is a mistake," Obama said. "What happened in Libya was we mobilized the international community, had a U.N. Security Council mandate, had the full cooperation of the region, Arab states, and we knew that we could execute very effectively in a relatively short period of time. This is a much more complicated situation."

Obama's strategy has been to use sanctions and international diplomatic isolation to pressure Assad into handing over power. The Pentagon chief said the United States is currently focused on isolating the Assad regime diplomatically and politically, arguing that it has lost all legitimacy for killing its own people. He left open the possibility of military action, saying the Obama administration continues to assess the situation and would adjust its strategy as necessary. Dempsey said among the military options are enforcement of a no-fly zone and humanitarian relief. He said a long-term, sustained air campaign would pose a challenge because Syria's air defenses are five times more sophisticated than Libya's. He said Syria's chemical and biological weapons stockpile is 100 times larger than Libya's.

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waltky · Mar 10, 2012

Yemen back in our good graces...

U.S. preparing to restart military aid to Yemen
10 Mar.`12 WASHINGTON (AP) The Pentagon is planning to restart programs that would fund military training and equipment in Yemen, nearly a year after they were shut down because of escalating chaos in the embattled country.

While no agreements have been cemented, U.S. defense officials said as much as $75 million in military assistance could begin to flow later this year. The officials said the Pentagon and State Department are putting together a letter to send to Congress to request the aid be restarted. The plan is in line with the Obama administration's intention to provide significant security and civilian aid to Yemen in 2012-13 as long as the Middle Eastern country continues to move toward a new government and funding is kept out of the hands of insurgents. One senior military official said discussions have begun over how best the United States can help Yemen, which is putting a new U.S.-backed government in place. The official said it may be difficult to relaunch the counterterrorism training that was suspended about a year ago because Yemeni forces are engaged in battle with the al-Qaida-linked insurgency.

Instead, the training program could shift to focus less on fighting tactics and more on how to plan combat operations and strategize against the enemy. Officials spoke on condition of anonymity because no final decisions have been made. Yearlong protests across Yemen, coupled with pressure from the U.S., led to the ouster of longtime Yemeni ruler Ali Abdullah Saleh. U.S. leaders have said they believe that newly inaugurated Yemeni president, Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi, will be a good partner to the U.S. The renewed effort come as the threat from al-Qaida in the Arab Peninsula also goes through its own transition. While often described as the top terror threat for strikes inside the U.S., the group hasn't surfaced as a key player in any domestic threats for more than a year.

The killing in a U.S. drone strike last fall of Anwar al-Awlaki, the U.S.-born radical militant cleric, has set back the group's terror efforts outside Yemen. Al-Awlaki has been linked to the planning and execution of several terror attacks targeting U.S. and Western interests, including the attempt to take down a Detroit-bound airliner in 2009 and the plot to bomb cargo planes in 2010. But it's hard to tell how long the lull may last. "What we don't necessarily know is are they going to be focusing much more on Yemen, or is it a short term thing, to be able to build up time and capacity to be able to strike at a far enemy," said Frank Cilluffo, director of a homeland security studies program at George Washington University who served as White House domestic security adviser to President George W. Bush.

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Mushroom · Mar 10, 2012

GeneralZod said: ↑

Since the so called 'arab spring' was coined in usa. I am more intersted when the americans rise up and have their own 'spring'

Occupy wall street is on going, yes?
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Yes, that is exactly what the Occupy movement is patterened after.

And the exact same antisemitic marxist type of idiots fill the ranks of both movements.

waltky · Mar 10, 2012

Libya to split in two?...

Libya rallies denounce Cyrenaica autonomy calls
9 March 2012 - Tensions have been frequent between the two sides of Libya

Thousands of Libyans have rallied in the country's two main cities to denounce moves by leaders in the east to create a semi-autonomous territory. Demonstrators chanted slogans demanding unity and used shoes to hit photos of Ahmed Zubair al-Senussi, the head of the regional council seeking a split. The rallies took place after Friday prayers in the capital Tripoli and in Benghazi, the main city in the east. Tribal and militia leaders there announced the move on Tuesday.

In a BBC interview, Mr Senussi said he was ready to hold talks with the country's leadership about setting up the oil-rich semi-autonomous territory, to be known as Cyrenaica. He said he was committed to federalism but was prepared to discuss what form it would take. In a speech on national TV on Wednesday, interim leader Mustafa Abdel Jalil, of the National Transitional Council (NTC), also called for dialogue but said national unity would be defended by force if necessary.

No consensus

Crowds gathered in central areas of both cities after clerics at Friday prayers warned that the autonomy plan could lead to the break-up of the country. In Tripoli, Martyrs' Square was the focal point of demonstrations, with people chanting "No, no to federalism" and "Libya is one". Correspondents say the declaration has significant popular support among people in Benghazi, but there is no consensus despite frustration with the slowness of change since the overthrow of longtime leader Col Muammar Gaddafi last year. Following independence in 1951, Libya's three regions enjoyed federal power until the country became a unitary state in 1963.

Cyrenaica stretches from the central coastal city of Sirte to the Libyan-Egyptian border in the east. It contains two-thirds of the country's oil reserves. The people of Cyrenaica, known as Barqa in Arabic, felt particularly marginalised and neglected under Gaddafi, who focused much of the development on the west, correspondents say. The city of Benghazi was the seat of the uprising that eventually toppled the former dictator, in August last year. The autonomy plan calls for a regional parliament and control over the police force and courts, but stops short of advocating a division of the country.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17322429
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waltky · Mar 11, 2012

Civil war in the offing?...

As Eastern Libya Calls for Autonomy A Middle East Analyst Warns of Crisis
March 10, 2012 - A decision by a group of civic leaders in the Libyan eastern city of Benghazi to declare autonomy from central rule has raised fears that the country might break apart.

Some politicians and residents of Benghazi this week said they would run their own affairs, defying the government in Tripoli. They say they do not intend to divide the country but to end years of discrimination against the east under ousted dictator Colonel Moammer Gadhafi. A provincial council was reportedly created to run the affairs of Cyrenaica, the historic province which runs from the border with Egypt in the east to half way across Libyas Mediterranean coast. But thousands of people protested in Libyas two biggest cities on Friday in a show of opposition to the autonomy plan.

We are going to see in Libya a variety of moves on behalf of the regions demanding autonomy, said Dr. Walid Phares, an expert on the Middle East and author of "The Coming Revolution: Struggle for Freedom in the Middle East. These demands, he said, will create a crisis with a central government which has not yet been defined. Libya is now in a transitional phase that could generate more crisis than before, Phares said the new regime in Tripoli is likely to push back on the demands for autonomy. They will be concerned that if it [calls for autonomy] starts in the eastern part of the country it might spread to other areas of the country.

The ruling National Transitional Council (NTC) is basically in the hands of the jihadists, said Phares, and the remnants of the former [Gadhafi] regime are trying to ferment trouble. It is also a possibility that tribes that were supportive of Gadhafi may also demand some sort of political autonomy in their area. He said it is going to be a struggle between the central government now controlled by Islamist militias and all those against them. Phares said while Libya was initially a federation under a King [Idris], before Gadhafi took over and became a unifier by force, now the Islamists are thinking of unifying Libya by ideology Salafism. It is not going to work with the tribes because they do not see this ideology Salafism - as a unifying force.

The anti-Gadhafi forces, he explained, were a coalition of mostly Islamist forces, dissidents of the Libyan army, and tribes opposed to Gadhafi, and ethnic minorities. This is a very vast coalition of forces that didnt have enough time to hold a conference to create the foundation of a new Libyan republic. Most Libyan didnt want an Islamist state, said Phares, so now we are going to see more and more opposition either by tribes or ethnicities to the Islamist regime. They need to move toward a conference that will declare a pluralist democratic state where all forces, including Islamists, are represented. Libya is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections in June followed by a constitutional referendum.

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Military aspects of the Arab spring

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