Ohio health official estimates 100,000 Ohioans already carrying coronavirus

Good grief.

 

Guess what the mortality rate is for average pneumonia?

https://www.lung.org/assets/documents/research/pi-trend-report.pdf

 

What is an “average” pneumonia?

 

The one that happens every year that doesn't result in world wide toilet paper shortages.

I.E the combination of all the bacterial and viral pneumonias that happen every, single, year.

 

It's no less silly to believe the worldwide infection number than it is to believe the Ohio estimation.

 

Numbers that are made lower through the use of vaccinations which we do not currently have to mitigate COVID-19 with.

 

It's hard to make a vaccination when the CDC can't get into China where the VIRUS IS LOCATED.

 

No argument there. It's understandable that there's no vaccination available yet since it's a new strain. It's part of why this is being taken more seriously than the usual wintertime flu's that we see.

 

Regardless, it's nowhere near the usual pneumonia rates, which is really what this is being compared to instead of a flu.

When you look at it as a viral pneumonia, it's not as bad as what we normally get.

 

I noticed that you cut off the chart so that it did not include the mortality rate for Influenza - ya know to back up the "covid is just like the flu" talking point.

Would you like to post that? Or should I?

 

And what evidence do you have that this is no worse than an “average” pneumonia?

 

Newsflash! No longer confined to China

 

Tucker crushed her last night on his show... She did some "quick estimates in a model", and that was the number that she got back... reminds me of why so many "models" are so untrustworthy.....

 

Ohio health official estimates 100,000 Ohioans already carrying coronavirus

I'll see his 100,000 and raise him another 100,000.

 

...how is that a crushing?

 

She finally explained how she came up with that number.

"I am not saying there are absolutely for certain 100,000 people. I'm saying I'm guesstimating. If I'm guesstimating community spread, that's my best number," she said Friday
https://www.theblaze.com/news/top-o...ases-in-ohio-now-admits-she-was-guesstimating

Not real convincing.

 

Yea...the title said that she was estimating.

But if you think it should have said she was guesstimating, that's...different...i guess.

 

The population of the State of Ohio is 11.7 million; therefore, an estimate of 100,000 virus-infected people is by no means implausible.

100,000 is obviously less than 1/10th of 1% of Ohio's population. Commensurate percentages of infection should be expected in other states of the United States as well....

 

You still haven't posted the mortality chart from the Influenza virus.

 

It's the doctor's call

We know the disease's progression. 14 days from first symptoms to death is the median. So, if Ohio had 100,000 cases then hell yes there would be hundreds of deaths by now.

From one case to 100,000 even with an Rzero of 4 would take 7 infection cycles, over a month. That would mean those infected by the third week, about 5 cycles or three weeks would be around 5000 cases. From known disease progress, that 5,000 confirmed cases would hash out to about a 7% fatality rate. That's 350 fatalities. If we use WHO's fatality rate of 3.4% then 170 would be dead. If we use 1% fatality rate, then 50 would be room temperature.

Ok, an adjustment. The article was written 4 days ago, so we need to add one more iteration to our equation. let's say 15,000 cases at mid cycle 6. So triple the above.

The math doesn't work. The lady is full of ****.

 

I did actually, assuming you can do the math.

I even gave you the formula earlier.

Covid19 is killing people as a pneumonia, not as a flu.

If you were to pay attention, you would discover that those who are dying are those with underlying respiratory problems and advanced age.

They are not dying from the flu effects of Covid19.

They are dying from developing pneumonia due to Covid19.

 

Oh I suppose that means they should have had a test kit like a few days after we had some cases outside of China.

Brilliant argument.

 

You mean other than the data?

 

You still going to call this virus the jussie smollett of viruses?

 

Your "Math" is off a bit.

1% of 11.7 Million is 117,000.

Thus, it would be "LESS than 1%" , but NOT "LESS that 1/10 of 1%."

100,000 cases would be 8.5/10 of 1%.

Just saying.