Possible 90% REDUCTION in CO2 emmissions by 2035?

Disclaimer: The issues of Climate Change, EV's and Green Energy have been POLITICISED which is why this thread belongs in this forum. The OP is about the PARADIGM SHIFT that is IN PROGRESS and how that is going to impact all of our lives IRRESPECTIVE of which side we are on politically.



The video above is 25 minutes that is well worth watching. It is a PRESENTATION to Oil Executives in Saudi Arabia about the TRENDS that are already IMPACTING our lives that are OCCURING due to both POLITICAL and ECONOMIC factors.

The presenter, Tony Seba, made some OUTRAGEOUS predictions a decade or so ago that are NOW reality. The ACCURACY of his predictions is WHY you should watch the video for yourself.

Not asking anyone to AGREE with him, just that it is HARD to ARGUE against the accuracy of his INSIGHTS.

For those who do not want to watch here are some of the HIGHLIGHTS worth noting.



In 2014 Tony Seba accurately predicted the DROP in prices of Lithium batteries literally to the dollar amount and the year. The price of Lithium reached $100/kwh just recently. They have DISCOVERED new Lithium deposits here in America that are MASSIVE. We are talking enough to build hundreds of millions of EV's.



When a Tesla Model S first came out and COST $100,000 to purchase Tony Seba accurately PREDICTED a 200 mile range EV for a mere $11,000. BYD recently announced an EV with a 200 mile RANGE at $11,400 in China. He is predicting EV's will drop in price to around the $5k range in the next 2 years. Doubtful that we will see them here in the USA but they will be available in China and the EU which are TWO of the three largest auto markets.



In 2010 Tony Seba predicted that the cost of Solar would DROP by 80 to 90 percent. Yup, he got that one RIGHT too.



Yes, that is his AUDIENCE for this presentation.



Not seeing many smiling faces because they REALIZE that what he PREDICTED came true and what he is PREDICTING is going to happen NEXT is something we ALL need to be aware of and discuss in this thread.



This graphic demonstrates the IMPACT of people SAVING money by switching to EV's on the economy as a whole. Those unhappy faces are because the Oil Execs are realizing that they will NOT be able to RAISE the price of gas for the holidays high enough to make up the DIFFERENCE in REVENUE losses.



The above graphic shows the RELIABILITY of the UPTIME of GREEN energy. Fossil fuel energy production requires DOWNTIME for MAINTENANCE and repairs. The Batteries can supply energy while the Solar/Wind is maintained and vice versa which means 100% uptime.



The graphic above is the reason WHY I started this thread because it is a MASSIVE game changer. The wholesale COST of meat (protein) production is about $10/lb ($20/kg) because of the USE of LAND for COWS.

There is a NEW Technology that can grow PROTEIN commercially. Precision Fermentation has REDUCED the cost of producing wholesale CONSUMER protein DOWN to around $1/lb ($2/kg) which means we no longer need COWS. That frees up BILLIONS of hectares of ARABLE land GLOBALLY.

So WHY do ALL of these TECHNOLOGY changes matter and HOW will they REDUCE CO2?

Tony Seba is PREDICTING that the use of GREEN energy, EV's and the REDUCTION in the number of cows needed could result in a DROP in CO2 emissions by 90% by 2035.

The MATH makes sense to me. Technically all of the above is FEASIBLE and a LOT of it is REALITY in terms of Green Energy and EV's already.

But perhaps the most INTERESTING aspect to all of the above is what will DRIVE this PARADIGM SHIFT to happen in the next DECADE or so?

The CONVERGENCE of these Game Changing technologies is one factor but I would like to explore the POLITICS behind them being ADOPTED here in the USA.

First let's look at WHY China is AHEAD of this CURVE. China has a Communist government with a CAPITALIST economy. Those in charge saw the DAMAGE being caused by Fossil Fuels in terms of COST/BENEFIT. Air pollution in China causes MEDICAL problems and that DIRECTLY impacts the government because they provide ALL of the HEALTHCARE. Ending Fossil Fuel pollution became a PRIORITY on both the ENERGY and TRANSPORTATION sectors hence the growth in Green Energy Solar panels and EV's.

In simple terms the Chinese commies did the Math and figured out that it was Cost Effective to go GREEN. They still want a CAPITALIST economy but they do NOT want to BEAR the BURDEN that Fossil Fuels IMPOSE on the economy. Smart move on their part.

Which brings us to the EU whose governments also bear the BURDEN of HEALTHCARE. They did the same Math and came to a similar conclusion hence their embrace of Green Energy and EV's.

The DECISION to make these changes was a CAPITALIST one in BOTH markets.

Which brings us to America where we all KNOW that CAPITALISM is going to EXPLOIT the Precision Fermentation alternative because it is a LOT CHEAPER to grow proteins in a FACTORY than it is to farm COWS. Cheese, hamburgers and milk, all staples, will be on shelves just as soon as possible because there are PROFITS to be MADE by using it.

Utilities are already switching over to Green Energy because it is CHEAPER to use Solar panels and Batteries than it is to PURCHASE Fossil Fuels. The GROWTH in this sector is ONGOING.

And that leaves us with our GAS guzzling SUV's queued up at the pumps. From a CONSUMER perspective if an ICE costs the same as an EV to PURCHASE but LESS to operate then that becomes a No-Brainer decision. Granted EV's are still more expensive but 40% of the cost is Batteries and that is coming DOWN significantly in the NEAR future.

Essentially BOTH China and the EU could reach a 90% reduction in their CO2 emissions by 2035.

What happens HERE depends upon CONSUMERS and POLITICS. Consumers are adopting Green Energy for their homes (assuming they can afford one) and looking at EV's. They will be DELIGHTED that the price of burgers, cheese and milk will NOT rise and those fast food joints can STAY in business.

The DOWNSIDE to EV's is the impending COLLAPSE of the LEGACY auto industry. They stand to LOSE the Consumer market. Who needs the latest model when the SOFTWARE upgrades automatically add all of those additional features overnight? Dealers will go out of business because there is next to nothing to "service". Oil changes will no longer be needed.

Given how much we Americans love our automobiles this is going to be a point of CONTENTION. The Politicians will be EXPLOITING any layoffs in the auto industry because that is what they do.

So where do YOU stand on this matter?

Is there something that Tony Seba is missing when he made his PREDICTIONS above?

Would you have a problem eating a cheeseburger with the exact same taste and feel as if it came a cow? If you are having Sloppy Joe's or meatloaf would you even be able to tell the difference?

Does your local utility offer Green energy?

Would you consider buying an EV and being part of the SOLUTION to the CO2 problem?

The next DECADE is going to see CHANGES and we need to CHOSE whether we are willing to ADAPT or if instead we PREFER hanging around dealerships waiting for a service on our ICE vehicle?

Once upon a time America WAS all about PROGRESS. Is that still true today or will the Chinese become Top Dogs because they did the Math and we chose to ENABLE them by IGNORING the Paradigm Shift currently in progress?

Your insights are welcome because we ALL need to decide where WE want to be in 2035. Our voices and our votes will determine if we are part of this Paradigm Shift in progress.

 

I didn't get past the first chart. Batteries are not a source of energy. They store energy. The energy has to be produced somewhere else. So the first chart is meaningless. I can't watch internet videos so I had to pass on that. The whole thing appears to be guesswork, i would imagine, and guesswork in political subjects is always partisan and subjective.

 

What is the point of STORING energy in a BATTERY if you NEVER use that as an ENERGY source?

CHARGING the batteries with GREEN energy means that you are just SAVING and USING the Green Energy in a DIFFERENT time frame. It is STILL energy.

Had you actually watched the video you would KNOW that it is NOT "guesswork" and there was NOTHING partisan or political in Mr Seba's presentation.

But THANKS for letting us know that you won't be participating any further since you PASSED on the TOPIC of the OP.

Have a nice day.

 

Yeah the new paradigm the left has is that the megacorps and their more important flunkies live like kings while the rest of us freeze to death in the dark. Sorry but you can't create enough power to keep all those batteries charged with wind and solar. And it takes literally tons of dirt per pound or less of lithium there for stip mining is the only cost effective way to obtain it. And the EPA zealots hate strip mining with a passion so the likelihood of US deposits ever producing an ounce of lithium is slim to none. Further note you eventually reach a point in the demand and supply curve in which prices start to rise again because of scarcity.
Meanwhile China is trying to corner the market on lithium supplies and our government composed of morons, idiots and fools more concerned with intersectionality than intellectual acumen or really anything seems to be sitting back and saying go China go, and no that isn't just Democrats, there are more than a few Republicans with there pockets full of China bucks.

 

Possible 90% REDUCTION in CO2 emmissions by 2035?

A 90% reduction is CO2 is a reduction in the gas that plants use to survi

Sorry. predictions of the future are ALWAYS guesswork. Thanks. Merry Christmas to you as well.

 

Yo, DT, I have a many posts here at PF on this subject. I challenge you to find the one I posted about solar and batteries.

 

To correct some of the misinformation and disinformation in the OP let’s look at the value of grazing animals (cattle that the OP seems to hate).


Large herbivores are essential to not only sequestration of large amounts of carbon, but in stabilizing soil carbon when additional nitrogen from pollution etc. is deposited on grasslands.

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2211317119

Grazing is responsible in part for increased productivity of arid regions of the planet.

https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf

It’s sad climate nutters know so little of the science involved and believe so many things that simply aren’t true. Grazers like cattle are essential to a healthy ecosystem. Transitioning grazing land to other land uses as proposed by the OP would destroy many global ecosystems and lead to much higher atmospheric CO2 levels.

I just shake my head sometimes at the sheer volume of disinformation in climate nutter’s posts.

 

Yo GM, while I appreciate that you have posts elsewhere I seriously do not have the spoons to guess which post you are referring to. If you can provide a link I will read it and respond.

 

Investors Daily mentions that China has 70% of the world's lithium battery sales. For me that's "cornering" enough.

If it were just crazy group-think morons running around w/ their nonsense then it wouldn't matter. The problem we got is we're talking about big time tax dollars going out of my pocket into this foolishness. I don't know how to stop it.

 

There is RANDOM guesswork that YOU are talking about as opposed to EDUCATED Trend Analysis that is in the OP.

I have taken the time to learn about and understand TRENDS. Historical data ANALYSED for trends compared to actual outcomes is the BASIS that makes it possible to EXTRAPOLATE from CURRENT trends that will provide INSIGHT into PROBABLE outcomes.

What is presented is an EXTRAPOLATION of the EXISTING trends and the MOST likely OUTCOMES of these TECHNOLOGIES based upon similar TRANSFORMATIONS in the past.

In 1974 I told someone who asked what I did for a living that I worked on computers, an old PRE-COBOL mainframe that was as big as a house with 24k of RAM. I said that one day everyone will have their own computer. 40 odd years later that same person recalled the conversation stating that their thoughts at the time were WHY would I need a computer when I don't even know what it is? And yet now she was admitting that she wouldn't know how to function today without her laptop.

Was I prescient or just had the ability to understand the POTENTIAL that was within that "primitive" form of technology?

We are NOT talking about something that does NOT exist here.

We are LITERALLY seeing this HAPPENING in the here and now.

All we have to do is look at the data and see which way the tend is going. Sales of solar panels, wind turbines, EV's and batteries are ALL trending towards GROWTH on a MASSIVE scale worldwide. We put together a GLOBAL internet so there is NOTHING stopping us from building a global power grid since we have BOTH the knowledge and the technology NOW. Will that happen? Perhaps, that is just another trend worth observing.

What the OP contains is an UPDATE on TRENDS that were initially REPORTED a DECADE or so ago and the RESULTS establish that what was PREDICTED by the trends came to pass in REALITY. Short of WW3 those SAME trends will CONTINUE and we will find ourselves with ALL the POWER we could ever need AVAILABLE for use to run our home appliances, travel where we need to go and have the nutrition resources to feed ourselves. Sounds unrealistic until you realize that there is UNLIMITED sunlight and wind energy that costs NOTHING. Plants use it all the time and so do we to grow our food.

The above is NOT some imaginative fantasy, instead it is the REALITY that we will be LIVING in within the next 2 decades if those trends are NOT disrupted.

 

More CO2 might warm the earth. But not to an extent that it causes an existential problem. There's still large portions of this planet that are uninhabitable only because they are too cold. There may be a handful of places that we make uninhabitable by making them warmer (Death Valley, Sahara, central Australia), but those areas are nothing compared the Siberia, Greenland and Antarctica. We will 'free up' more land for humans by warming the planet than we will by keeping it cooler. The predictions of droughts in currently lush areas are pure speculation and do not take into account the artificial irrigation made possible with cheaper energy that would accompany reduced carbon emission regulations.

I'm not opposed to renewable energy. I am opposed to stunting the economy in attempt to halt climate change that is so slow that we can easily just adapt to it instead. The idea that people moving from Australia to Siberia, Greenland, northern Canada and eventually Antarctica over the next hundreds of years 'might cause too many wars' and we should prioritize the global economy to prevent that is an overly conservatively stagnant view of the future, imo.

Our planet has been far more CO2, far warmer, and 100% ice free several times over our history of complex life. The effort we're putting into redcuing carbon would be better spent adapting to the slightly warmer climate that cheaper energy might create. I'm all about solar, but more from an energy independence standpoint, which it isn't currently economically affordable to achieve. I see the focus on switching to EVs before the power grid can accommodate them, switching to rare earth metals mined by children in the 3rd world instead of oil produced by highly paid professional adults in the first world, and the imposed austerity required to meet the current 'net zero' predictions as nothing but an agenda by the financial and political elite of the world (who refuse who live as 'austere' as they demand the rest of us must) to further control all human activity under the guise of 'carbon is dangerous', and I intend to oppose them as much as I possibly can because **** them, they have too much control already.

 

Around the time of the founding of our nation the Founding Fathers spent BIG TIME tax dollars on FOOLISHNESS like an interstate CANAL system and Universal HEALTHCARE for sailors.

MORONS like FDR spent BIG TIME tax dollars on a universal RETIREMENT program for hardworking Americans.

FOOLS like Eisenhower spent BIG TIME tax dollars on the interstate Highway system.

DUMBASSES like JFK spent BIG TIME tax dollars on putting a Man on the Moon FFS.

IDIOTS like Al Gore spent BIG TIME tax dollars on the INTERNET.

Slick Willy spent BIG TIME tax dollars on EARLY Green Energy projects.

Do you SEE a TREND there?

The GOVERNMENT of We the People INVESTED in our FUTURE and TODAY we are the BENEFICIARIES of those INVESTMENTS.

So my question to YOU is WHY must something that WORKS be stopped?

Are your kids and grandkids NOT worth INVESTING in THEIR futures?

One of the BEST things about having a government of We the People is that we get to INVEST in OUR own FUTURE.

Personally I INVESTED in solar panels and batteries two years ago for my home and I am ALREADY seeing it PAYING for itself. I am ON TRACK to see that INVESTMENT completely PAID OFF in another 3 years. Then I have about TWENTY YEARS of free power where MY money stays in MY POCKET instead of going into the pockets of UTILITIES.

The government of We the People is one of the few entities with the MANDATE in the Constitution to INVEST in our FUTURE. Look it up if you don't believe me, Article 1, Section 8 mentions support for the Sciences by Congress.

 

Thanks for an informative contribution to this thread.

Just one minor correction, Solar is one of the two MOST economically AFFORDABLE options with the other being Onshore Wind.






That was from 2 years ago, it makes even MORE economic sense NOW.

The cost of Solar panels, as mentioned in the OP, has dropped by 30% in the last year and is expected to drop even further by 2030.

At this point you would be hard pressed to find a Utility that is going to build a new Fossil Fuel powered plant. They will keep what they have going but they have no long term future and there are no plans for them either. Yes, there are Natural Gas plants but those are for PEAK energy demands as opposed to Base Load demands. They make sense until we have the necessary battery banks in place that will levelize the load automatically.

Once upon a time Solar was NOT cost effective, NOW it is the MOST cost effective INLAND option and it is just going to become cheaper still as the cost of panels decreases.

 

Not even going to bother to read all that you said. I will highlight two things.

1: Eating cows is never going to stop. Seriously...
2: We will never get away from oil. Oil is used in far more than "gas guzzling cars". For example...that computer you are using to post on this forum? The manufacturing of computers is actually more materials intensive than what it takes to make a car. Don't believe me? Ask the UN. LINK: Computer manufacturing soaks up fossil fuels, UN University study says | UN News

And that's just computers. There are literally thousands of products that we use every day in society that uses fossil fuels. Unless you want to go back and live in a pre-industrial age...we're simply not going to get away from fossil fuels. Even when we get fusion energy going (they've had 3 consecutive successes now so it won't be much longer), we're not getting away from it.

 

Let’s cut to chase really fast. The climate change movement was created to impose government control and socialism. It’s the most emotional way to impose a totalitarian system. If you control energy, you control the population. It’s just that simple.

 

Hmmm, so what you telling us is that the Fossil Fuel Cartel, which currently CONTROLS ENERGY, is a "totalitarian system" being used to "control the population".

Got it!

If YOU don't want to be CONTROLLED by a "totalitarian system" then INSTALLING your own Solar system and purchasing an EV will EFFECTIVELY rid you of their CONTROL over you since YOU are NOW in control of YOUR own energy production and usage.

That makes perfect sense to those who understand the Math.

Just trying to decide which EV best suits my purposes and then I can give the middle finger to all those gas stations each time I drive silently past them.

Freedom from the TYRANNY of the Fossil Fuel Cartel just keeps on getting better and better.

 

I’ll take that “fossil fuel cartel” over the totalitarian government you advocate.

 

So you PREFER to be living UNDER the AUTHORITARIAN control of the Fossil Fuel Cartel instead of having the FREEDOM to generate and use YOUR own energy?

Got it!

Have a nice day.

 

The problems occur when federal government spends money it doesn't have, regardless of what it buys with it. Since I believe 70% of federal government spending is unconstitutional, it isn't hard to fix. Painful, perhaps, but straightforward. Section 8 doesn't give federal government the power to pay for scientific projects. It gives federal government the power to issue and control patents and trademarks.

 

Great post. I am very sympathetic to the premise, but 90% reduction of CO2 emissions by 2035 is just not possible. And those over-optimistic predictions are then used by the usual suspects to ridicule the clean energy movement, so it's not doing any favors.

Let's just look at transportation: 90% of current car sales in the US are still ICE cars. Every car sold today will be on the road for 15+ years. Even IF all cars sales next year would be EV cars (not possible), it would take 15-20 years to get rid of all the ICE cars that are still on the road.

Now, I DO agree with all the general points that are made in the video (I wonder if any of the naysayers actually watched it). Just go to the Amazon or ebay sites, you can buy a 100W solar panel for $60 (the price was double that only 5-6 years ago), or a 1 kWh LiFePO4 battery for about $250, the price was quadruple that only 3-4 years ago. This will soon make off-grid residential solar not only feasible, but very soon the cheapest option for households. This should be a dream for freedom lovers, to be able to rid themselves of the monthly bill from the power company.

Next will be transportation. Here, I am afraid, the US is missing the train. Cheap EVs will be the future, once it is here, it will be too late for the US, and all the money in this sector will be made by other countries, most importantly China. And while they innovate, they chuckle about the silly political infighting within the US that prevents significant progress.

 

A distinction with no MEANINGFUL difference duly noted above. The Law of the Land, as understood by the SCrOTUS, does provide Congress with SPENDING POWERS that it has DIRECTED towards all types of SCIENTIFIC PROJECTS such as putting a man on the moon and developing the internet to name just two out of many.

 

Note there have also been two or three times in which the planet almost completely froze over which killed damn near everything.

 

either the fossil fuel industry or the government I'll take the former.

 

Your chart says that we can buy a low end EV today for around $17,000. Please show me the low end EV which I can buy for $17,000 which I actually want to use.

Also, show me that same EV back in 2015 which cost $70,000.

 

There will be no freedom from the government that you advocate. There will one political party, and it will dictate policy. We already have the FBI and Department of Justice taking actions to aid the Democrat Party. If you can’t see or admit that, you are proving my point.