Predictions: The 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

DEMOGRAPHICS

Most college-graduates will vote for Biden.

Most Independents will vote for Biden.

Most women will vote for Biden.

Most younger Americans will vote for Biden.

Most Black Americans, Hispanic Americans, Asian Americans,
and Native Americans will vote for Biden.

Most elderly, poorly-educated white males will vote for Trump.

 

My prediction is that Biden will be replaced at the convention if not sooner. He won't be on the ballot. Putting him on the ballot is a sure loss and the DNC won't tolerate that. So my belief is that nobody will vote for Biden.

 

my prediction is that unless Dems get out and vote, Trump will win

if people think Trump can't win and do not bother to vote like they did in 2016, Trump wins by default

get out and vote

 

I thought your prediction was Biden will resign in DEC 2023.

 

Well, but we see where Trump is gaining ground with women and minorities while the younger Americans are less likely than ever to vote.
And we all know that no one can win without the backing of the independent voters.

Nikki Haley is polling strongly with independents and women and minorities and younger voters. The only demographic she isn't stronger in is Republicans. She's even sucking up moderate democrats.

The problem is, she needs the REPUBLICAN nomination, and trump seems to have a lip lock on that.

This is gonna be interesting.

 

and over half of Nikki Haley voters say they will not vote for Trump, some even say they would vote for Biden over Trump

 

What an extremely simple-minded oversimplification with binary think of an issue that is much more complex.

 

Apparently, you canmot disagree with my predictions, but you do not like them.

 

My prediction: Trump will win or he will announce that his great victory was stolen again.

 

I have the same feeling, and I think it will happen in February. Manchin will probably take over

As for him winning or losing if was remains on the ballot, people won't vote for him, but they will vote against Trump like they did in 2020 and they knew exactly what they were getting with Biden. I just don't want to see either him or Trump in the WH.

Haley is not done yet.

 

Haley's continuing presence in the GOP nominative process ehhances the exposure of Trump's racism, xenophobia, misogyny, and puerile, narcissistic depravity.

Traditional, conservative "normals" (conspicuously represented by so many who served under Trump, and got to know him well) will not be able to overcome the invasive, authoritarian species befouling the GOP since 2016, but Trump's incontinence will coalesce into a perfect storm of unhinged rage with his concurrent criminal exposures.

Of course, that will only intensify his worshipers' fanatical adoration and their contempt for the "vermin" who support American democratic values such as certified elections, government of, by, and for the People, and the law and order maintained by America's law enforcement officers and our judicial system.

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Yawn, there are many sound reasons to support Trump over Biden, and they have nothing to do with the fact that Trump's personality offends lots of snowflakes

 

Yawn, and there are many reasons to support Biden over Trump and most of them have everything to do with Trump being under indictment in four jurisdictions for 91 charges. Not to mention the civil trial in NY where he committed fraud in his business dealings.

 

yes I agree: here are groups that are rationally supporting Biden
1) union bosses
2) those who support violent criminals and want to disarm potential victims
3) those who support abortion completely
4) the alphabet agenda-especially those who think men ought to be able to compete in women's divisions
5) class warfare advocates
6) those who want to end American primacy at a global level
7) those who wish to balkanize the USA into warring special interest groups

 

And there are many reasons other than his personality for NOT voting for him.

 

As a member of the college educated with a Master's degree, I would not vote for Biden if he were the only person on the ballot. I would leave it blank.

I think that @Turtledude is spot on. You have to be part of the brainwashed, college educated losers who are living at home with mommy and daddy to vote for this senile, dishonest, progressive.

 

as I said, the alphabet agenda especially. gun banners for sure. union bosses absolutely. those who want more public welfare are clear supporters of Biden. those who hate the police and seen the BLM as righteous. Those who damned Kyle Rittenhouse and had a soft spot for the child molester he shot. all rational supporters of Biden. Those who hate America and oppose our nation having a border. The Soros globalist one world government types

 

A list of old partisan talking points is never spot on. People will vote for him in order to keep the whiner (Trump) out of the office. Its as simple as that, and that's exactly what happened in 2020. They'll vote for anyone but Trump, even if they have to pull for Biden, and insulting them won't change their minds, because obviously its more than "losers who are living at home with mommy and daddy".

But far the largest group is "anyone but Trump". I doubt many are hoping for "more public welfare", and most LGBT folks just want to be left alone, but they too probably fall in the group who will vote against Trump rather than for Biden. What's Biden going to go for them? They'll be just as gay no matter who is in the White House, unless its someone hell bent on making their lives more unpleasant.

 

And those are the LGBT people I admire. I would vote for an LGBT person if I agreed with their views, and their sexuality is not at the center of their life.

LGBT people I can't stand are those who can't leave the young children alone. They are evil.

As for Trump, I agree with most of his policies, especially when you compare them to Biden. The problem is you have to accept his style, which does not wear well.

 

What may they be?

He boasts of his "big, beautiful wall!" he insists that he built, of course, but many recognize that it is as substantial as his replacing 'ObamaCare' with "something terrific!" that covers "everybody" at "less cost!" as he raised unemployment and bloated the national debt.

"You know, the wall is built!...
We did a great job in the wall.
Remember, the wall, they said it could never be done.
One of the largest infrastructure projects we've ever had in this country!"​

 

Funny how you display ill will toward "poorly indoctrinated " white males. You are wrong on every count however beyond being sexist, racist and ageist!

 

Interesting breakdown if one includes more options than just Trump and Biden which most polls at this point in the campaign don’t. But a few do.


Most college-graduates will vote for Biden. Education level not include in the polls that include other or third party names or will not vote.


Most Independents will vote for Biden. Today independents are breaking for Trump 40-37 with 26% stating they’d vote third party or not vote at all if the rematch occurs. 2020 independents voted for Biden 54-41 with 5% voting third party.


Most women will vote for Biden. 46-38 for Biden with 16% third party or won’t vote. 2020 Biden won women 57-42 over Trump.


Most younger Americans will vote for Biden. 18-29 – 56-29 Biden with the rest saying third party or won’t vote. 2020 18-29-year old’s voted for Biden 60-36 over Trump.


Most Black Americans, Hispanic Americans, Asian Americans, and Native Americans will vote for Biden. Blacks, 57-18 with the rest third party or will not vote if the rematch occurs. Biden won blacks in 2020 87-12. Hispanics 50-31, Biden won Hispanics 65-32 in 2020. Asian and Native Americans not included in the polls.


Most elderly, poorly-educated white males will vote for Trump. 65 and older 51-40 Trump with 9% third party or will not vote. Trump won this group 52-47 over Biden in 2020. Men 48-42 Trump, with 10% third party or will not vote. Trump won Men 53-45 in 2020.

 

I have no data concerning it, but I don't believe that the white males who worship Trump are "poorly indoctrinated."

Do you have any credible sources to sustain your dogma?

 

I understand what you are saying. However, I look at other styles that have never won the Potus. Mitt Romney, Juan McCain, etc. Nikki talks a pretty good talk but she has yet to come up against the leftist Press or the Neo-Marxist machine. They cut her slack because they want to take down Trump. If she ever came under the scrutiny he has....we'd see how she stands! On the other hand she lost me totally when she played the brown race card as well as the female card. That only caters to the left. Like many Americans, I have no trust for those who want to play "moderate". We can easily see where moderates have taken us!

 

I don't anticipate any significant demographic shifts unless a viable third-party candidate emerges.

I am curious to see what the turnout will be if it is only Biden vs Trump.