Reading about Iran

Doug1943 · Jan 24, 2018

One of the most interesting posts I've read on this site was by someone living in Iran, posted just a few days ago, setting the record straight about daily life there -- showing that it was not some sort of Shi'ite North Korea.

Here are links to three more articles which I believe are informative: the first is by an Al-Jazeera journalist, the other two are in far-Left publications (Counterpunch and Jacobin).

A preliminary account of the protests in Iran.

How the mass media misread the Iranian protests.

The Moral Economy of the Iranian Protests.

If anyone else has any links to informative articles on what is happening in Iran, or background articles, perhaps they would be good enough to post them in this thread.

Or post informed comment.

waltky · Apr 11, 2018

Steep Slide in Currency Threatens Iran’s Economy...

Steep Slide in Currency Threatens Iran’s Economy
APRIL 11, 2018 — All this week panicked Iranians have gathered in throngs outside banks and other financial businesses hoping to buy dollars, as the government seeks to head off a collapse in the rial, the national currency.

But they have met with nothing but frustration, told there were no dollars or other currencies for them to buy at the official government rate. In an effort to stop the run on foreign exchange, the government has forbidden anyone from holding more than the equivalent of $10,000 in dollars or euros, which account for most of the foreign exchange in Iran. Long on a downward path, the rial plunged this week, losing 35 percent of its value against the dollar and hitting what has been widely described as a record low. The government is seeking to impose an exchange rate of 42,000 to the dollar, but in Tehran’s black-market exchanges this week the going rate was 60,000. When President Hassan Rouhani took office in 2013, the rate was 36,000. In an effort to squelch currency speculation, the government sent riot police into the bazaars on Wednesday, where they arrested several money changers. One senior cleric, Ayatollah Nasser Makarem-Shirazi, said that some money changers ought to be executed to set an example.

However, many of those changing money in the bazaars were ordinary people seeking to protect themselves against rising prices and fearful of further declines in the currency. Others, like Mohsen Yekta, a university professor, said they needed the foreign exchange for personal business. “Every month I send some money to my daughter in Paris,” he said. “I need foreign exchange to help her out. I don’t know what to do.” Amid rising tensions in the region, the national currency has been sliding for weeks, but it went into free fall on Saturday. The government blames unilateral United States sanctions that continue to limit bank financing, despite the 2015 nuclear agreement that lifted international banking sanctions. Market insiders say that fears are also rising that President Trump will withdraw from the nuclear agreement next month, when it comes to him to be certified once more.

A briefcase on display at a currency exchange market in Tehran in January. Several money changers were arrested this week.

Ordinary Iranians agree with most of these explanations, but also blame the government for poor planning and bad management of the economy. They also view the black-market rate as one of the few trustworthy indicators of the country’s economic health. Earlier this year, complaints about economic conditions and corruption exploded into a more general protest against political conditions in more than 80 cities across Iran. There are no signs so far that the current troubles are leading to unrest.

The currency slide is taking its toll on business, with many firms selling foreign products halting all sales, unable to determine prices. The manager of a paint factory said that he had sent his 70 employees on a paid vacation, because he did not know what price to ask for products that were based on foreign ingredients bought with foreign exchange. While Iran has endured similar currency crises in the past, some commentators said they were not seeing light at the end of this particular tunnel. “Our economy is based on bad planning — it’s wishy-washy,” said Farshad Ghorbanpour, an analyst close to the government. “Don’t expect things to get any better.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/11/world/middleeast/currency-iran-economy.html
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See also:

Potential for big oil price spike grows after provocative missile strikes
11 Apr.`18

* The missile attacks by Iran-aligned Houthis aimed at Saudi Arabia's civilian areas and oil facilities have proven unsuccessful, but they are a provocation at a time when the Middle East is already at risk of a widening conflict.
* President Donald Trump has said the U.S. would soon respond to a Syrian chemical attack on civilians last Saturday.
* With oil prices at a three-year high, it's possible prices could flare up even more if hostilities spread beyond Syria or Yemen, two hot spots that are seen as proxy wars pitting Iran against both Israel and Saudi Arabia.
* "If this is all contained to Syria we've probably seen the bulk of the rise. The issue you get into is if there's a strike on Iranian assets in Syria, a direct hit on Saudi, or a scenario where the Saudis and Israelis team up to take it to Iran directly, that's where you get into triple-digit oil price land," said one oil analyst.

Huthi rebel fighters inspect the damage after a reported air strike carried out by the Saudi-led coalition targeted the presidential palace in the Yemeni capital Sanaa on December 5, 2017.

The missile attacks by Iran-aligned Houthis aimed at Saudi Arabia's civilian areas and oil facilities have proven unsuccessful, but they are a provocation at a time when the Middle East is already at risk of a widening conflict. With oil prices at a three-year high, it's possible prices could flare up even more if hostilities spread beyond Syria or Yemen, two hot spots that are seen as proxy wars pitting Iran against both Israel and Saudi Arabia. The U.S. is set to strike Syria in the very near future because of its chemical attack on civilians, and both Russia and Iran have said they stand with Syria. "We're at the pivot point. It's a binary outcome. If it's a pinprick in Syria, we've seen the price gains. We'll sell off afterwards. If Iranian assets, in particular in Syria, get hit, it's a game changer," said John Kilduff, energy analyst and founder of Again Capital.

U.S. oil prices are up nearly 8 percent this week so far, as tensions rose surrounding Syria. West Texas Intermediate futures temporarily rose above $67 per barrel, and Brent crude futures were above $72 per barrel. "Now you're talking about $75 WTI being on the table, and $80 Brent," said Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC. She said oil would rise much higher if the proxy war escalates to a real war between Iran and Saudi Arabia or Israel. Trump said the U.S. would respond in Syria, after its government again used chemical weapons against civilians Saturday, killing dozens and wounding hundreds more. Syria has denied it. "If this is all contained to Syria we've probably seen the bulk of the rise. The issue you get into is if there's a strike on Iranian assets in Syria, a direct hit on Saudi, or a scenario where the Saudis and Israelis team up to take it to Iran directly, that's where you get into triple digit oil price land," said Kilduff.

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Reading about Iran

Doug1943 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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waltky Well-Known Member

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