The Coming Working Class Election 'In current polls, we see a marked decline in Biden’s support among both components of the working-class vote with the decline among nonwhite working-class voters if anything larger than the decline among white working-class voters. The result has been a double digit falloff in Biden’s margin among the working class as a whole. The Split Ticket crosstab aggregator has Biden losing working-class voters to Trump by 14 points, a 10-point drop from 2020 and the New York Times/Siena poll has Biden’s deficit among these voters at 17 points, 13 points worse than 2020.' Trump's winning on the economy. Bribed Joe is losing on the economy. College Grads not numerous enough to make up for the Working Class drop off. 'given the preponderance of working-class voters in the electorate, to truly set off widening deficits among the working class Democrats would need margin gains among the college-educated that are 50 percent larger than their margin losses among working-class voters.' So a 12 point drop off in Working Class means they need an 18 point increase among the College Grad class to get back to previous election par. 'swing-state polls indicates the same basic pattern: big Biden losses among working-class voters relative to 2020, with approximate stability or slight gains among college-educated—not nearly enough to counterbalance the working-class losses.' 'It therefore seems obvious that the key to victory for either side in 2024 lies in their relative performance among working-class voters.' This is shaping up to be a “Brahmin Left” vs. “Populist Right” election. Please discuss.
One of the problems of this analysis is turnout. I expect most blue haired feminist studies majors to turn out to vote (unless they're high and sleep all day), but the working class seems less reliable. I would think this requires a very strong ground game to get those people to the polls. It's early, but I wouldn't count on one.
