The Sun-Climate Effect

The comments were posted a few posts before the graph.

 

“A reader lives a thousand lives before he dies . . . The man who never reads lives only one.”

--George R.R. Martin

 

Sorry no. it's cooling off across the the northern states as we speak. Some places hare having early season snow. Weather, dude, weather.

 

When the first one is followed by a second one we'll start counting - when it extends over a decade we'll start call it "global warming emergency"

 

No, that's just some nonsense you have made up. I have not denied any basic reality. It is the CO2 climate narrative that denies basic reality.

No, that's just some more nonsense you have made up. I simply pointed out that AGW theory relies on an absurd claim that aerosols somehow magically started cooling the earth in 1940, then somehow magically stopped cooling it in 1970.

 

And you look absolutely insane for saying such a crazy thing, since AGW theory says no such thing. You're making up loony cult fairy tales.

Remember, you can't gaslight normal people.

 

You're claiming snow in December is "early season"?

Each winter, without fail, we get deniers pushing this "I SAW A SNOWFLAKE, SO GLOBAL WARMING IS A HOAX!" stuff. It's one of their standard really dumb arguments.

 

Ironically the smoking gun that human emissions were affecting climate was the effect of sulphate aerosols.


“Only a few of the articles mentioned how recognition of the influence of sulphate aerosols had lowered the expected rate of warming by one third. The New Scientist story explained how factoring in sulphate emissions meant that it was the lack of observed global warming that had paradoxically ‘delivered the guilty verdict’:

Like Sherlock Holmes’s dog that didn’t bark, it is the warming that hasn’t happened that has finally convinced climatologists that human activity is probably to blame for global warming. 677”

— Searching for the Catastrophe Signal: The Origins of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change by Bernie Lewin
https://a.co/arrLKVJ

 

That is exactly what it says, because it has to contrive a rationalization for why temperature and CO2 moved in opposite directions for decades, and that's the best the liars for hire could come up with.

Remember, you can't gaslight normal people.

 

Depends on WHERE. Here in Southern California: not so much. High Sierras: more likely.

 

I'm not a "denier". No question temps are going up; at a rate of about .1C a decade since 1850.

 

Science finds a way.
Willie Soon on fire talking to Tucker Carlson about the role of the sun in climate change
Posted on January 9, 2024 | Willie Soon on fire talking to Tucker Carlson about the role of the sun in climate change
Well worth the 50 minutes or so to listen to astrophysicist Willie Soon’s interview with Tucker Carlson, on Twitter/X Episode #62. You don’t have to be signed up to Twitter/X to listen. Background information on the topics covered by Soon can be found here: https://www.ceres-science.com/post/dr-willie-soon-s-interview-by-tucker-carlson-december-2023

 

The Sun and hurricanes, interesting.
Hurricane Frequency and Sunspots
Andy May
By Andy May Yesterday, Roger Pielke Jr. posted a plot of the 3-year frequency of global major hurricanes (he uses a simple count of them) created by Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue).…

Figure 1. The blue line is Ryan Maue’s 3-year cumulative count of major global hurricanes. The orange line is the simple monthly sunspot count from SILSO.

 

To paraphrase James Carville: It's the Sun, stupid.
NOAA’s Graph Provides Best Evidence That Solar Heating Is Warming the Oceans, Not CO2
Guest Blogger
Why such regional differences from the same CO2 blanket?

 

Climate follows the Sun.
A New 1787-2005 Temperature Reconstruction Determines The Coldest 50-Year Period Was 1940-1993
By Kenneth Richard on 4. March 2024

The warmest 50-year period in northeastern China occurred from 1844-1893.
Li et al., 2024

“Compared with single years, in general, high or low temperatures that persist for many years will more significantly affect the growth of trees [30]. When we defined years with T12-1 ≥ −10.73 °C (Mean + 1σ) and T12-1 ≤ −12.61 °C (Mean − 1σ) as extreme warm years and cold years, respectively, the reconstruction for the period of 1787–2005 contained 31 cold years and 36 warm years (Table 4). The extreme cold/warm events lasting for three or more consecutive years were discovered in 1965–1967 and 1976–1978/1791–1798, 1844–1849 and 1889–1891. An 11-year smoothing average of the reconstructed T12-1 series was performed to reveal multi-year and interdecadal variations and to detect the several prolonged cold and warm periods (Figure 5d). After smoothing with an 11-yr moving average, cold periods occurred in 1822–1830 (mean T12-1 = −12.7 °C) and 1957–1970 (mean T12-1 = −12.7 °C), while a warm period occurred in 1787–1793 (mean T12-1 = −10.4 °C) (Figure 5d). Rapid and sustained cooling was observed in the reconstructed series in the years 1790–1826 (T12-1 range −10.3 °C to −12.8 °C, mean = −12.0 °C) and 1939–1969 (T12-1 range −11.6 °C to −12.7 °C, mean = −12.1 °C), where the rates of cooling were about 0.067 °C/year and 0.035 °C/year, respectively (Figure 5d). The two cooling events may be due to the decrease in solar activity [48,49,50]. Using a 50-year time scale, the highest temperature occurring during 1787–2005 was from 1844 to 1893 (T12-1 range −12.79 °C to −9.41 °C, mean = −11.15 °C), similar results were also obtained by Zhu et al. and Jiang et al., while the lowest temperature was from 1940–1993 (T12-1 range −13.57 °C to −10.26 °C, mean = −12.13 °C) (Figure 5d) [33].”
“Recent studies have underscored the strong correlation between changes in Earth’s climate and solar activity. The prevailing belief is that during periods of lower solar activity, such as the Dalton Minimum (c. AD 1790–1830) [51,52,53], Earth’s temperature is expected to decrease. Our reconstruction reflects these expectations, displaying low values from AD 1790 to 1830 that coincide with the Dalton Minimum of diminished solar activity (Figure 7a). Conversely, during periods of heightened solar activity, the climate tends to warm, as observed during the Roman warm period (400–10 BC) and the medieval warm period (900–1200 AD) [53]. It was found that the upper temperature of the troposphere and stratosphere was synchronous with the 10–12 years cycle of solar activity [54]. The 12.9 years cycle correspond with the sun spot cycle [55,56,57,58]. Correlation analyses revealed a significant positive correlation between the annual reconstructed T12-1 and the number of sunspots from the previous December to the current January, with r = 0.22 (N = 188 years, 1818–2005, p = 0.011). The 73-year cycle may be linked to the 50–80 years Lower Gleissberg cycle [31], reflecting changes in solar radiation intensity [57]. A noteworthy relationship between the reconstructed series and sunspot numbers was identified during specific periods, including the 1790s–1840s, 1850s–1870s, 1920s–1930s, and 1950s–2000s (Figure 8B). Additionally, other studies in northern China have also detected cycles of approximately 10 years [25,58,59] and approximately 70 years [45], suggesting potential effects of solar activity in the region.”

Image Source: Li et al., 2024

 

Yet the sun was very active in that period, and the early 1940s saw multi-decade lows in arctic sea ice extent. However, there is a difference between "coldest" meaning the lowest temperatures and "coldest" meaning the biggest decline in temperatures. Given how warm the 1930s and early 1940s were, it is possible that the 1940-93 period saw the biggest decline.

Tree-ring chronology cannot be used in long-term proxy-based temperature reconstructions, as CO2's fertilization effect creates a spurious warming trend. The whole CO2-climate scare narrative is based on misinterpreting CO2 fertilization of trees as warming (as in Michael "Piltdown" Mann's hockey stick graph), either not correcting or under-correcting for the effects of urban heating, rural land use changes, contrails, etc. on instrument temperature readings, and modeling of infrared radiative heat transfer in the atmosphere using the standard atmosphere (which has 0% water vapor) rather than realistic tropospheric water vapor content.

 

The linked paper concerned China.

 

Yes, but tree-ring chronologies are still problematic for periods longer than a few decades of the modern fossil fuel era, as I explained, as are the effects of local heat sources, land use changes, etc. on thermometer readings.

 

The Sun is our primary climate driver.
New Study: Satellite Evidence Shows Absorbed Shortwave Radiation Has Been Increasing Since 2000
By Kenneth Richard on 14. March 2024

The warming of the oceans since the turn of the century can easily be explained by the increasing trend in absorbed solar radiation.
Earth’s energy imbalance was determined to be +0.6 W/m² during the first decade of the 21st century (Stephens et al., 2012) using satellite observations. However, uncertainty in this positive imbalance value is large: ±17 W/m².



Image Source: Stephens et al., 2012
According to a new study (Kato and Rose, 2024), absorbed shortwave irradiance has been increasing since 2000 at a rate of +0.68 W/m² per decade. This can explain why the top of atmosphere (TOA) energy imbalance has been “increasing with time.”

This positive imbalance “leads mostly to heating ocean,” and it fully accounts for the surface imbalance estimate (0.68 W/m² versus 0.6 W/m²).



Image Source: Kato and Rose, 2024
CERES data indicated a +0.66 W/m² per decade−1 (+1.3 W/m²) increase in absorbed solar radiation during the 21st century (March 2000 to March 2020) per a 2022 study (Stephens et al.).

It was determined the net absorption of solar energy that has occurred due to the reduction of solar radiation reflected to space by clouds and aerosols is “by far the largest contribution to the increasing rate of change of EEI.”



Image Source: Stephens et al., 2022

 

So essentially, the observed warming is due to reduced albedo, not the "greenhouse" effect of increased CO2. Among the factors that have reduced the earth's albedo are the observed reduction in cloud cover, the increase in dark, sooty particulate emissions, especially from China and India, and the darkening of desert areas due to the increase in green plant cover caused by the fertilization effect of increased CO2 in water-constrained ecosystems. The anti-fossil-fuel scare campaign is once again exposed as dishonest nonscience.

 

The Sun-Climate Effect is quite clear regarding precipitation.
Analysis Of 120 Years Of Data Show Clear Solar Influence On Rainfall In Germany.
By P Gosselin on 22. March 2024

At Klimanachrichten, Dr. Ludger Laurenz looks how solar influence on rainfall in Germany.

Precipitation patterns linked to the 22-year Hale cycle.



While droughts and periods of heavy precipitation in Germany are often blamed on CO2 climate change by the media and pseudo-experts, Laurenz sees a clear link to the 22-year solar Hale cycle. This can be detected in many historical weather data series.

To search for the solar influence on the annual precipitation sum, he used the data from the DWD dating back to 1903.

Finding: “Different precipitation trends are repeated every 22 years. This indicates solar influence.”

According to Laurenz, “The exceptionally high level of precipitation totals in the last year and the first two months of 2024 is very likely due to solar influence.”

Moreover, he found: “The evidence of solar influence on precipitation totals is even better if periods over the turn of the year are selected instead of the classic annual period from January to December, such as the 12-month period from July to June of the following year or the winter half-year. The solar influence on the precipitation sum is much stronger in the winter half-year than in the summer half-year.”

The solar magnetic cycle (Hale cycle) lasts approximately 22 years and can be detected in solar physical measurement data (Chapman et al. 2021) and the search for solar influence is based on Chapman’s formulations.

With the change from one Hale cycle to the next, the sun starts a new program of activity within a few weeks that repeats itself in the same pattern approximately every 22 years. Every single month and every single year of the 22-year Hale cycle is characterized by a specific solar activity pattern that affects the Earth’s atmosphere and creates weather trends.

Ms. Veretenenko’s latest publication from the Loffle Institute in Saint Petersburg has described the mechanism of the transformation of varying solar activity via the stratosphere to the troposphere and thus our weather.

Using the start years of the Hale cycles, it is easy to prove solar influence in historical weather data, Larenz shows.

To do this, the weather data from the same approx. 22-year cycle phases, starting with the respective start years of the Hale cycles, are stacked on top of each other. The result:

Every 22 years, extremely high and low annual precipitation totals accumulate in the same phases of the 22-year Hale cycle.

Full report in German at Klimanachrichten

 

Javier Vinos may be the smartest climatologist in the world.

How we know that the sun changes the Climate. Part I: The past
Posted on April 18, 2024 by curryja


by Javier Vinós

Part I of a three part series.

Continue reading →

. . . The Sun provides 99.9% of the energy that the climate system receives. So, there have always been scientists who thought that variations in the Sun were the cause of climate change. The problem is that they never had enough evidence to prove it. Until now. . . .

 

Once again, it's the Sun, stupid.
Post-1980s Increases In Shortwave Radiation Explains Europe’s Warming Trends Far Better Than CO2
By Kenneth Richard on 29. April 2024

Across Europe there has been a downward trend in cloud and aerosol albedo over the last 40 years, allowing more solar radiation to reach the surface. This “brightening” effect thus explains recent warming.
A new study (Wacker et al., 2024) from a “testbed site” in Germany reports total and direct shortwave (SW) radiation forcing rose by 3.5 and 9.3 W/m² per decade, respectively, from 1996-2021 over Germany.

Compare these much larger per-decade forcing trends to the much tinier (0.2 W/m² per decade) climate impact that CO2 allegedly has in clear-sky.



Image Source: Wacker et al., 2024
Another new study, Natsis et al., 2024, finds Greece has also sustained a significant increasing trend in “downward shortwave solar irradiance” since 1993.

“Monitoring the trends of the downward shortwave solar irradiance or Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI), is an important tool, for evaluating long term changes of the local climate and in revealing some local atmospheric characteristics. Here, we analyse data from a pyranometer installed at the Laboratory of Atmospheric Physics in Thessaloniki. The location of the monitoring site is within the urban area and near the commercial centre of the city, thus we expect that the atmospheric attenuation of radiation is strongly affected by the human activities in the area. Observed GHI trends in different locations worldwide revealed either negative or positive tendencies if GHI, mainly due to combined effects of local factors. On global scale, studies have reported a decrease in GHI for the period 1960–1980, known as ‘global dimming’, followed by a decrease since the late 1980s, known as ‘global brightening’ (Wild, 2009, 2012).”
“In this study, we are reporting increasing trends in downward shortwave solar irradiance from measurements at Thessaloniki, Greece for the period 1993-2021. The main drive of this study was to investigate whether the longterm increases in GHI that have been reported in an earlier study (Bais et al., 2013) continue also in the 10-year longer dataset. We confirmed the continuation and a slight enhancement of the linear trend (0.43% per year for allskies and 0.24% per year for clear skies). The two main factors that may have caused the observed solar radiation brightening over Thessaloniki are the reduction of the aerosol optical depth, and changes in cloud cover and optical depth. Another factor, could be a possible increase in the enhancement cases of the GHI by the clouds (Vamvakas et al., 2020), which will be investigated in a subsequent study together with the role of clouds. Our findings are in accordance with other studies (Wild 2012, 2009; Philipona et al., 2009; Kazadzis et al. 2007), that have also reported increases in GHI in other locations.”
Europe as a whole has “experienced an increase in surface solar radiation, termed ‘brightening’, since the 1980s” (Schilliger et al., 2024) due to trends in cloud and aerosol shortwave forcing.

“Surface solar radiation is fundamental for terrestrial life. It provides warmth to make our planet habitable, drives atmospheric circulation, the hydrological cycle and photosynthesis. Europe has experienced an increase in surface solar radiation, termed ‘brightening’, since the 1980s. This study investigates the causative factors behind this brightening. A novel algorithm from the EUMETSAT satellite application facility on climate monitoring (CM SAF) provides the unique opportunity to simulate surface solar radiation under various atmospheric conditions for clouds (clear-sky or all-sky), aerosol optical depth (time-varying or climatological averages) and water vapor content (with or without its direct influence on surface solar radiation). Through a multiple linear regression approach, the study attributes brightening trends to changes in these atmospheric parameters. Analyzing 61 locations distributed across Europe from 1983 to 2020, aerosols emerge as key driver during 1983-2002, with Southern Europe and high elevations showing subdued effects (0-1%/decade) versus more pronounced impacts in Northern and Eastern Europe (2-6%/decade). Cloud effects exhibit spatial variability, inducing a negative effect on surface solar radiation (-3 to -2%/decade) at most investigated locations in the same period. In the subsequent period 2001-2020, aerosol effects are negligible, while cloud effects dominate the observed brightening (2-5%/decade). This study therefore finds a substantial decrease in the cloud radiative forcing over Europe in the first two decades of the 21st century. Water vapor exerts negligible influence in both sub-periods.”
A year ago Marsz et al. (2023) presented compelling evidence that decadal-scale sunshine duration variations across Europe and the North Atlantic are driven by the internal (non-anthropogenic) processes affecting cloud cover, namely the natural thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic (THC NA). This relationship spans the entire period from 1900 to 2018.

“The mechanisms of the THC NA functioning are known and indicate that they are the result of the internal variability in the ocean-atmosphere system.”
“SST changes occur not only because of changes in the amount of radiation reaching the ocean’s surface but also due to the meridonal oceanic heat transport.”
“t is the long-term changes in the thermal condition of the North Atlantic, and not changes in the concentration of aerosols, that would be the primary cause of the long-term change in the SD over Europe.”
“[T]he occurrence of long-term variability in the SD over Europe, manifested in the occurrence of successive phases of dimming and brightening, can be explained without resorting to changes in the concentration of volcanic and anthropogenic aerosols in the atmosphere.”


Image Source: Marsz et al., 2023