These two things are key predictors for severe COVID-19

https://knowridge.com/2020/03/these-two-things-are-key-predictors-for-severe-covid-19/

I have been wanting to see more information about links between underlying conditions and the risk for hospitalization and this study gives us a much better idea of which people are more likely to require hospitalization and ventilator support, although they do confirm some of the previous assumptions.

In terms of a link between the symptoms and the likelihood for ICU admission, the meta-analysis found that the prevalence of dyspnoea in ICU patients was 67.2%, compared with 10.2% in the non-ICU group. Dyspnoea is a relatively uncommon symptom (I saw this reference to a WHO study that put the number around 18% of patients), but it is extremely likely that you will need ICU admission if you experience it.

In terms of underlying conditions and your likelihood for needing hospitalization and ICU admission, this meta-analysis found that those with COPD were 6.4 times more likely to develop severe disease, and 17.8 times more likely to be admitted to ICU. Those with CVD and hypertension were 4.4 and 3.7 times more likely to have an ICU admission, respectively, compared to patients without the comorbidity

Finally, the study did note a bit of a distinction within the ICU group and found that COPD, again, presented the strongest link to those who faced severe issues (i.e. require a ventilator) upon hospitalization.

 

This is helpful information, as it helps further outline the particular dangers. By no means is it a "be reckless" statement, but it does give hope that perhaps the economy can be opened back up within a matter of a few months.

 

This information has very little impact on the likely re-opening of businesses and I think the situation is likely to remain very much altered until August in an optimistic timeline.

But this information should hopefully give some comfort to those individuals without these underlying conditions and to serve as a warning for those who do have it to take this situation extremely seriously and to do everything possible to delay their infection until a point when the hospital systems are no longer taxed as highly as they are likely to be for the immediately foreseeable future.

 

I look at it like this: The risk is distributed randomly and unevenly and mysteriously, so I might live through this and I might die in this Wuhan thing.

I rode my 36 mile route on the road bike Sunday, not much traffic at all, but I'm mid-seventies and this Wuhan virus might stomp me into the ground with no regard. It might do that if you're 18.

 

First off, that is super ****ing impressive.

Second, I think activities like bike rides are still appropriate because you are able to maintain a safe distance from everyone (I would suggest trying to pick routes that might decrease your risk, if possible).

Third, I totally understand where you are coming from. The goal of social distancing though is to minimize the chance that this virus curb stomps you at a time when there are just not enough ventilators to go around.

I wish you the best of luck and the best of health.