The problem with the GDP to debt the smallest change will greatly affect that ratio. Change in confidence overseas means reduction in dollar value which means change in debt. While we like to think that what happens tomorrow is unknown, a very good guess can be made with overseas investment gurus telling the world Australia is no longer the safe haven for their money and should move to New Zealand. That is not the future but the present and from this we can assume that money will be flowing out of Australia reducing investment and ultimately increasing the debt ratio. Go figure, somethings can be seen of the future due to actions of the others. Well that is the problem isn't it? Can the government forecast for the future. The ALP's entire effort since being elected has been nothing but astonishing, from the GFC that they knew nothing about to money grabs to fund the ongoing cost the government have not accounted for. This entire government has been nothing but reactionary, anybody who had any idea could see the GFC coming for years and in fact there is much speculation that Howard went out of his way to lose the election on that basis. We look to the way in which he ran his election to see how determined he was to be re-elected. So when it comes to saying the government can forecast to insure the debt ratio is kept in reasonable levels. I seriously doubt it and the current government have given me no impression that they ever will be able too. Sorry to say that UK example is totally irrelevant. Their economy has little correlation to Australia and lets face it no mining boom to sell the land beneath their feet to save their arses. Austerity measures don't Work? Sorry to say that is complete BS. Austerity measures are not a set bunch of financial rules that must be brought in. Austerity measures are a complex financial undertaking that include and exclude many different things. What??? Government made good response??? Hell, they did not have any idea it was coming until it was here and making big impression on economy. Their response of Keynesian methods (widely criticised) was demonstrated by Japan previously not to be ideal (look to Japanese economy for examples). But wasteful manage and unfunded policy has presented the problem that your method of continuing Keynesian programs have only one problem, there is no money. The fact that stimulus is still ongoing perhaps you might consider that Australia has not made it out of the GFC affects and continue in precarious economic position. The fact that the ALP could not manage the stimulus without waste so future spending for better policy was wasted producing nothing of consequence. Thus raise taxes to introduce programs cut spending in other areas to fund ongoing government costs. Good managers??? No the fact that Australia remains in the position it is in has more to do with luck than good management. You say that we know the good times will not go on forever, yet you want to follow Keynesian methods which are designed for that express purpose. How can a government build reserves when it is borrowing to simply keep going? You can only build reserves in surplus not in deficit so the great management you are proclaiming is going to move the economy into further debt when the domestic economy is returning to it's regular downturn. Fact is if you are unaware Australia is still struggling with downturn from the GFC, hence the reserve bank's low interest rates, consumer and business confidence at such low levels and the government stimulus still ongoing. SO should the economy be caught in another downturn as UK and France.. etc... etc, That wasteful management could have gone a long way in building those reserves you talk about. It could be considered that ALP have moved to Austerity measures with their cuts to welfare and cuts to certain spending to attempt to at least service the debt. (which at present is all they can present) Now one of the key elements to the reason the GDP debt ratio is dropping (which is another reason that you can be sure the ratio will change). The mining industry has fallen from the boom and government coffers are suffering. The entire issue of who manages the economy better is extremely important. Australia has seen both parties proclaiming their great management when other factors outside their influence have saved their collective arses. Now without a resources sector (due to many reasons) are fading into obscurity, what has Australia got to rely on to keep the economy going? Australians like to think that they have plenty the rest of the world wants, fact is look to what they want and you will see Australia is not exactly as well off as you think... The ALP has not got a Keating waiting in the wings to take the reins and this scumbag (from previous) is not even close to hold the bed pan to the man. No, as stated, ALP show poor management and simply play the popularity game (at present) to get into a job they dont seem to care how they get it. Again, it is not a good look is it?
Or is it that the righturds don't have any idea! Could it be that righturds would complain about heaven.........if for some tricky reason they made it anyway!
A life of dependence on money was one area I was fortunate to escape! I'll share it with you one day.....maybe! Life did teach me that you can't put your trust in mammon and you can't put your trust in those that worship it!
Two years out from the election in 07 John Howard knew he had lost after the introduction of "Work Choices" by the way ordinary people he met would talk to him in a polite & slightly disinterested way. The air of defeat may have made some people think he was trying to lose but the media is very unforgiving of the coalition & it just can't make a mistake on the scale of work choices & have any chance of being reelected.
There was nothing wrong with work choices, people were hookwinked by the huge, nation wide fear campaign of lies launched by the unions and labor. Kevy and Labor are trying the tactic again now, personality politics with campaign of lies to make people fear Tony Abbot. I have been keeping the Labor pamphlets turning up in my post box, every one so far has been pure lies with the message, "fear Tony Abbott", They are nothing short of disgracefull, gutter level politics.
True, the bogan brigade believe anything the unions tell them, they`re not big in the thinking department.
A drop in GDP will mean the ratio changes, yes. It remains to be seen if that will happen. A competent government will be watching for possible changes and should be able to use data for forecasting. If a drop in GDP becomes a shock then someone is not doing their job. It's true a few voices predicted the GFC, I think one of them was our very own Steve Keene. But I really doubt that Howard same it coming and took a dive in the election and in the process losing his own seat. I mentioned the UK situation as a policy comparison. It seems to me that the UK has failed with its application of austerity policies. Their economy is not in good shape due to their failed policies. The bases of their economy and ours are different, yes, but so are the policies and it's the different policies that point to success or failure. As for management, the UK is in trouble, Australia is not in trouble. Neither situations were arrived at by accident, both are by design. There's a lot of misinformation put about by those opposing Keynesianism, for example, that debt isn't a worry and budget deficits don't matter. That is definitely wrong. Government should spend when the economy is in a trough to stop it going into depression and should save when the economy is on a peak but act to curb inflation. The business cycle is not predictable so governments need to be on guard all the time and be ready to act when required. The government is moving to cuts to manage the budget, possibly due to the right wing media parroting the Opposition's mantra on the budget surplus. This takes advantage of what Americans call low-information voters who simply repeat what the Murdoch press sprays at them. The resources boom has been wasted, I think I'd agree with that. Howard and Costello pissed it away buying elections. The current government botched the MRRT and missed out on quite a bit of money. There's sufficient blame to go around on both. Whichever party or coalition is in power after the federal election needs to get to grips with it. As for Rudd, if he wins it then there should be a discreet period before he hands over the PM's role to someone more competent in policy and government rather than populist electioneering.
Diuretic, Rudd will never give up the power, he is a pathological egomaniac. They would have to sever his head and send it to the opposite side of the world from his body, so they could be sure he would not resurrect himself again. It will only end in a mess.
As I stated, this GFC had been seen to be coming from some time (some for up to 10 years). Work choices had many good aspects that could now have been useful to any government. As everybody stated it went too far. However, even after ALP was elected many points from that policy remain today, individual contracts and alike. BUT I agree that a mistake was made and not all by the Coalition, but the real point was that Howard never returned to the policy (with stubborn arrogance) to fix problems within. Again, we are all just speculating on this point, but it looked to me, Howard and many others saw this GFC coming a mile away. This measure of work choices may have been to the affect to lose the election and yet hold some policies to aid recovery after the next as any party who went through the GFC without any fore thought would not be able to recover.
As the GFC??? That seemed to shock the government, treasury and all those money experts whose income depends on government. But as the GFC had been forecast this should not have been a shock. But simply put when government only 4 months out of creating a budget has a 30b odd short fall and are gouging everybody for money to cover, why? Because industry has not performed to expectations... Competent? No reactionary and failing dismally Well it is speculation, but as his election campaign was rather dismal, but appearance is deceiving. Fact is many voices (only a few in Australia) were predicting these things since the concept of the bubble. However, it does seem unrealistic that he would take a dive... UK has very different basis and very different drivers, however, the only thing that has kept Australia from being in the same problem today is the minerals. Lose the resources sector and suddenly Australia has a much bigger problem than UK. What do you expect to sell to other nations if not minerals? Wheat? Meat? Rural produce? Who was it being sold to before the mining boom? Who produces it now (in this very country). Australia is in for a big problem soon with the poor management. You might consider it not in trouble now, but things are changing fast and scumbag is simply trying his best to smoke and mirror the problems till after an election so he can build more frequent flier points for another three years at tax payer’s expenses with all the glitz and glamor of being a national leader. Sorry??? Those opposing Keynesianism say debt is not a worry or budget deficits don't matter? Sorry, no that is not what is stated by those opposing and frankly very superficial look at the policy. Keynesian policy is good for short term gains but without better long term policy only prolongs the problem for a greater problem later. As Japan found when they employed the Keynesian policy in the late eighties to counter downturn in US markets that directly linked their economy. Since this period Japan had been unable to recover completely and as many said when the US coughed Japan just about had a heart attack. GFC hit Japan especially bad due to the fact they had not recovered from those Keynesian policies they introduced almost 30 years before... In downturn government spends to boost the economy, people stay employed and money continues to move around the economy due to confidence that government is helping. When things go well, government restricts the spending to slow the economy however confidence is high in all areas because everything is going well. When downturn occurs Jobs are shed, up turn jobs are made. BUT when nobody has any confidence then the economy is in great difficulty... The government is moving to cover its arse over a 30b shortfall in the budget because as with Mining tax and Carbon tax they spent money they do not have. Any business in this position would be declared insolvent and be closed but not a great management team called the ALP, why? Because they think they have an abundant income from the tax payer. God yes, nobody can simply lay blame on one side or the other, they seem to both stuff this up. However, I will say that the current government did not have the opportunity to waste the effort as the mining boom helped to keep Australia from major dive. How far could the mining boom go around? I did feel the MRRT was good originally but for a few points, but this government could not manage to get this issue right and when they introduced the tax, immediately spent the forecast income which did not come... Good management??? No Sorry, but I slightly condemn the ALP for fronting this scumbag (in Hind sight) And if ever elected again that night should have him sacked as soon as they have the results. Nothing will serve the ALP best than offloading this scumbag as they will forever be tainted by his smell and it is bad. No, let us keep our opinions on that scumbag apart. As I believe with his current performances should never even be allowed to be considered as a human let along a person.
When I mention Keynesianism as an approach of necessity I have to be a bit brief. One reason is that I've not been formally educated in economics so I can only interpret what I read and think about. On the other side, as it were, is the approach of austerity. I have no idea if it's monetarist or neo-liberal or whatever, all I know is that it is a fail in practice, where it counts. It's not what we need. We have indeed been lucky in that the resources boom kept us out of trouble. I'm not going to discount for one moment its effect. It really is an example of Donald Horne's original ironic theme in his book. Even a totally incompetent government would have been bolstered in its success by the resources boom - and I'm being apolitical in saying that. Now what concerns me for the future of our country is that if the Coalition is elected that we will be back to a do-nothing approach that marked the Howard-Costello time in government.
Seriously garry, any old joe blow on the street knew something was going to happen! I mean, any old joe blow! Young people who hadn't experienced an economy with a downturn would have been shocked!
We don't have a mail box, we don't have a mail delivery service so we keep a post box in the nearest town. They keep stuffing labor campaign material into it.
I see our resident megalomaniac is at it again. Not happy with just a carbon tax, he wants to tax our savings as well. That's right the stuff you diligently put away for the rainy day, trying hard to get ahead. You put away the meagre amount after you are already taxed to the hilt, and after you pay your fear money(insurance), car expenses, etc., etc. Now this little twerp wants to balance his books, so he reckons he'll just take your savings. I think this is the first major error from fuhrer Rudd. It will be interesting to watch the polls over the following week. He could still do a Beattie though, and backflip. You can always do a Beattie !!!!LOL.
I told you a while ago it does not matter what their emperor does to them they will still hold him high and proclaim him the best. If he decided to sterilize them all they would try and tell everybody it was for the good of the country...
Notice how it wasn't Kevy Clown who announced the budget blowout, he made Chris Bowen deliver the bad news. Kevin Rudd is pathetic, bring on the election so we can get rid of this cardboard fool.
Well, it would be good for the country. When we see the way they get led around, looks like they`ve already been done.
Happy to say I was wrong, the clown is not going to string it out he has called the election one week early. We only have to put up with this appalling government for 5 more weeks. I notice he used the election date announcement as a Labor party campaign speech and once again pitched to the uneducated bogans and once again said our huge and rapidly increasing debt is nothing to worry about because we look good compared to the worst!
