Trump Economy misses 3% Growth, Conservatives Sweep It Under Rug

https://www.businessinsider.com/gdp-promise-fell-short-trump-tax-cut-2019-2

So, even with a massive boost in defense spending and tax cuts, Trump's claim that his economy was going to reach 3% growth (remember, maybe even 4% or 5%) with the tax cuts fell short. And now the economy is over the sugar buzz and we're looking at less than .5% growth based on current projections for the first quarter 2019. Quite sad.

 

I do think tariffs are a huge negative, and definitely something that Trump originated that I didn't support. But let's not put it entirely on Trump. The US Congress has its hand, in that for these three years the word 'productive' is not the word I'd associate with them. Regardless of party structure.

 

They'll spin a couple of 10th of a percent of increase in GDP growth over Obama, if even statistically measurable, as a YUGE success of the Trump tax cuts, making everyone rich. Meanwhile the average worker can celebrate their $1.50 increase in take home pay per week, as to out of touch Paul Ryan.

All that bought with trillion+ dollar deficits as far as the eye can see. And that's not thinking about the deficits when the next recession hits, and it will.

It was all predicted, though, but Trump and his supply-side fans didn't want to listen.

 

The Fraudster-In-Chief strikes again! This is just par for the course of Trump bullshit claims. The guy lives in an alternate reality of his own making - one where Putin and Kim respect him and where most Americans aren’t daily embarrassed by how stupid he is.

 

What?

First of all, it's not "putting it on Trump". Putting bragadocio and wildly unrealistic boasts and predictions on Trump is quite legitimate.

Trump made all these ridiculous boasts about how the economy was going to take off like never before j ust because of him, and all the little Trumpsters cheered along and attacked anyone with a realistic view.

Well, the Obama economy chugged into its tenth year of steady growth.

Trump's tax bill did nothing for anyone other than traders and CEO's. all of whom got fat bonuses.

Meanwhile, people have done, or are doing their personal income taxes and discovering that a lot of them are going be paying more taxes under Trump, even as business got huge tax cuts and got to keep all their deductions.

So far, the only real concrete result of Trump's "enconomic plan" (he doesn't actually have one), is skyrocketing budget deficits.

Thus it was with Ronald Reagan. Thus it was with George W Bush. And, as I predicted a year and a half ago, so it is with Donald Trump.

 

Good to see you dems all pissy about not achieving 3% growth, a mear two years ago you guys were telling us 1.9% was good. Finally you guys are realizing we can do it, I'm shocked.

 

Actually, that's not true either.

Growth rates were above that before Trump became President, and were there before Trump did nothing at all on the economy for nearly a year, until Steve Mnuchin and Wall Street wrote the tax bill they wanted Trump to sign and handed it to McConnell to get through Congress. Trump started boasting about his economy on inauguaration day, even though he had nothing to do with it.

And we would almost certainly had higher growth had the GOP Congress under Obama not blocked every attempt to stimulate the economy after the summer of 2009. They even had to be battled off the cliff of two or three government shutdowns during that period.

 

Tom you've been telling us 2% was great for 8 years, you can lie to make sound better for you but you can't rewrite history.

 

Moving the goalposts again, I see!

I did say that that very modest growth rate was noteworthy, because it did reflect real economic recovery.

We went from the very edge of depression to the longest economic expansion in US history. Adn we did it almost entirely on monetary policy, as the GOP was not going to help on the fiscal side at all, and said so publicly.

And the GOP did try and shut down the government in exercises in economic hostage taking. Cruz went so far as to put the US on the verge of default, which would have caused a Depresssion.

Contrary to the Trumpster myth (which is pretty idiotic), economic growth has been consistantly steady for a decade, and increased in the out years. 3 plus percent growth did occurr in the final two years of the Obama administration.

Donald Trump did exactly nothing on the economic stage for the first year of his Presidency. But he never stopped giving himself credit for the work of others (which he does a lot).

 

Steady, organic growth is a good thing. Gasoline-on-the-fire economic flare-ups for a measly one point increase are not.

 

I was told by Obama that 3% was impossible.

 

Democrats forget all about "managed decline" and "the new normal". If Hillary won those policies would of been continued and if they win 2020 they will be reinstated.

 

No, you were not.

 

Will you claim that 2% growth is great when that is the number we see in 2019?

 

So Democrats never talked about "the new normal" and "managed decline"?

Do you really believe that?

 

I think we can place the uptick in growth almost exclusively on Congress. Although it is a short lived sugar rush created by the tax cut which is unlikely to result in any significant long term growth.

And I think we can place almost the entirety of the failure to reach 3% on Trump who instituted a trade war that cost Americans ~3 billion a month last year.

 

You really need to take a deep look into the US Chamber of Commerce, and you will see how much the GOP and them work hand in hand to ship jobs away from the USA.....

 

I miss our friendship. I genuinely do. Prior to Donald Trump, we had a friendship even as I advocated my positions for an American Empire. But now it seems, I'm your enemy #1 though that makes no sense. But in any event, I do wish to give context.

Prior to the tax reform bill(which of course, was definitely flawed and I opposed certain aspects of it. Namely the ones you point out), as a country we were paying the highest capital tax...in the world. We were absolutely watching our foreign competitors and other countries take American innovation and enabling it to enrich themselves. A reform of the tax system was inevitable.

Originally, economists such as myself wanted to lower the capital gains tax to 15%(IE: Equal to most of the EU). https://www.bankrate.com/investing/long-term-capital-gains-tax/

And according to this site, that's where we're at. 15-20% for those just under 1 M dollars. We haven't given corporations a big break. If it appears that way, it's because the US Government was hemorrhaging the American Economy. Indeed, the only reason we discuss "budget deficits" is that US Government spending is exceeding revenues.

We know this, because we got a report just a couple of months ago that just announced that for the 5th year in a row, the US Government broke a new revenue for tax revenues! It's a joke. We the People are giving more and more to Uncle Sam on a yearly basis now.

It's just not enough for the big spender that is called Washington and it's about time that Liberals get that through their head: Taxation is government revenue. That's all it is. Society isn't necessarily benefited per say. Hell, if we want to talk about the people and their daily incomes, there's such a thing as an INCOME TAX.

Uncle Sam is richer than Big corporations. Uncle Sam has the power of incarceration to get his hands on every cent he possibly can and damn it if I don't sound like a Libertarian right now.

So I absolutely want to lower taxes on the middle class. That was the mistake in the Bush Tax cuts(since kept, because even slim cuts for the middle class is better than NO cuts.), and yes it was the mistake in the prior legislation as well.

But let me be perfectly clear: It would not give more money to Uncle Sam, it would be a restoration back to the people. The only way for Uncle Sam's financial order to be back in order is to stop spending money it doesn't have, so that it doesn't gorge out the economy.

Until it does, lowering taxes as a whole makes the US Sam Brownback's Kansas(where Brownback engaged in populist tax reform, but the state of Kansas couldn't handle it. Because Kansas's government spending, exceeded revenues.)

For my person, this is why I'm a Flat Tax proponent. The only opposition to the Flat Tax is that there wouldn't be one high enough for current levels of government spending. Yes, that's right I am Uncle Sam's biggest enemy. To reform the system, Uncle Sam must sacrifice. Uncle Sam's not going to get to pig out.

If Uncle Sam can behave however, there's a reasonable Flat Tax(around 20%) that would be more than enough to not only fund present government operations, but would constitute massive savings and the simplification of the tax code.

 

Interestingly the "new normal" quote was an explicit example of Obama claiming that 3% growth was entirely possible - in direct refutation of @HTownMarine - but that we have to make an effort to avoid falling into the "new normal" of a 2% growth.

 

He takes 100% credit for all the good, so he can take 100% accountability for the bad. Sorry, that's YOUR guy who does that. Not us.

 

Trump is an accurate reflection of our people. Americans should be embarrassed for being unable to engage in respectful discussions with those they disagree with. You must admire him to emulate him as you do.

 

What does a respectful conversation look like with someone like Trump who enjoys conning just for the sake of it? How does that go when you say, actually, the data all supports this conclusion. And then the other person says, no, idiot, I know better than scientists/generals/lawyers/everyone and it's actually this, because my gut says so. Tell me, what sort of respectful discussion can be had at that point? I may simply be agreeing with you here, but you seem to be attacking both the poster who is attacking Trump and attacking Trump so I find that an odd position.

 

And I'll be realistically analyzing the situation. This Congress cannot do anything for this Republic. It's only gotten worse since the mid-terms. Democratic voters voted for the tomato throwers and tomato throwing is what you're getting. So don't complain about the ineffectual federal government. You voted for it.

 

I would never complain about an ineffectual federal government. It's ineffectual by design. Have you read the constitution? You know who has an effective federal/national government? Russia. China. They just make things happen. Don't place too much virtue on effective governments, they are the ones who use all those horrible powers without due process like you listed in your post above.

The US Government has limited impact on the US economy, again, by design. Setting a tax rate in of itself doesn't equal a result out the other end. It's not that simple and you should know that.

And I voted for holding the president accountable, something you seem to NOT want to do...yet all the while crying out for freedom. So I'm confused by you on that front as well.

 

Haven’t you heard? Respectful discussions are, apparently, only for elitist Washington swamp-dwellers who are part of the “deep state.” Trump supporters LOVE how Trump talks like a “regular person,” which I assume means they like name-calling and lots of unsubstantiated claims. That’s the audience, right? Because anyone who appreciates respectful, intelligent discussions recognized Trump as a disgraceful fraud years ago.