Venezuela votes to annex part of Guyana

Last week Venezuela voted to annex part of Guyana. While there is no reason to beleive this vote was remotely democratic, it is clearly indicative of some level of intent on the part of Maduro & his governing clique. It is far from clear precisely what he plans to do. Venezuela dwarfs Guyana in population & military resources, and while the territory involved would be hellishly hard to invade & occupy, logistics would be a bigger issue than likely resistance at this point. The region in question (or the offshore part of it at least) is oil rich - Maduro has already proposed offering licenses to extract those resources.

No one appears to be very pleased about this. The US has offered support to Guyana:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/...torial-dispute

Brazil seems unhappy & has moved tgroops to Venezuela's border. This is bad for Maduro, as Brazil's current leader has previously been somewhat sympathetic to Venezuela:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-67645018

The Organization of American States (OAS) is also unhappy. Whatever its members might think of each other, the ydo not like the idea of nations unilaterally changing borders. Also not fans of Venezuela generally:

https://oilnow.gy/featured/oas-raise...uncil-meeting/

So, what next? A direct invasion seems unlikely, though that doesn't mean it won't happen. Maduro is facing an election next year and he has given committments it will be free & fair (yes, I know he is unlikely to follow that, but it is still a risk). The fact that the oil is largely offshore means that naval power is relevant. Venezuela can probably grab at least some oil platforms more or less unopposed, but it can't keep control of the maritime zone if there is any significant opposition. It is not difficult to imagine a US-led multinational force patrolling that maritime border, which would rapidly end any Venezuelan ambitions.

If I were to indulge in the sort of infaltile, politicized analysis that is a daily occurrence in these parts I might suggest Maduro has taken his cues from the Republican party's abandoment of Ukraine to conclude that the US is unwilling to defend democracy's from invasions by dictatorships. That would, of course, be as stupidly simplistic & ignorant as blaming everything that happens in the world on Biden, so I'll leave such foolishness to others.

Another stupid mess caused by a failing dictatorship.

 

It's ultimately Russia stirring up more trouble and instability by supporting Maduro and his regime.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia–Venezuela_relations

 

I suspect Putin is a mere observer here. No doubt he will encourage Maduro, but this feels like an internal Venezuelan thing. The only real danger is that Maduro gets desperate and tries to seize some territory/oil platforms. Hopefully he does not.

 

I doubt Putler can do much other than lip service for Maduro at the moment. 90% of the Kremlin chimps "military" is neck deep in $hit in Ukraine.

 

He will struggle to even send spare parts. Maduro has few friends & even fewer useful ones

 

I'm not sure Venezuela is in the condition to launch an invasion of a neighboring country's territory, with all the economic discord and chaos that's been going on over the past many years in Venezuela.
On the other hand, launching an invasion, especially one that would be popular with the people, would be a great distraction from the country's many domestic problems, and could help Maduro's party consolidate more power and political support.

An irony is that the Left supposedly claims not to support war and belligerent aggression to take territory, but the actual thing those on the Left want most is anything involving "free money", and that what taking this oil-rich territory would give them, or represent. The poorer masses who support the Left in Venezuela right now are desperate. They would frame it was "righting old historical colonial wrongs".

If the current president of the United States were Republican, I think it would be more likely to dissuade Venezuela from any possibility of military action into a neighboring country's territory. (A president like Obama or the Biden Administration which represents a more Left progressive party would be more likely to ignore any controversial acts from a Left run country like Venezuela, whereas under Republican presidents the U.S. is more likely to carry out the policy of maintaining a sphere of influence in the nearby Latin American region)
If Venezuela did launch an invasion, I could foresee it even being possible the U.K. might get involved. Might want to protect their British Petroleum company's interests, as well as Guyana being a former British colony.

 

Didn't even read the OP properly, did you?

 

It is true that I did not read the OP properly when I replied, but after having read it, I do not understand what your point is, or how my reply was inappropriate.

 

I think they're feeling emboldened, possibly even encouraged. Iran is acting up, North Korea, various Russian-influenced African regimes, and now Venezuela. The autocratic war against the democratic west and its world order is heating up.

 

Iran, NK, VZ, couple CARS, kinda take their cue from the RuZZians.....who is heavily bogged down in Ukraine.....dunno how adventurous those regimes may get without Kremlins full backing?

 

Might be they sense weakness on our part. We aren't intervening militarily like we used to.

 

We should do the same as we shoulda done in Ukraine- arm the civilians and let them decide the borders.

But no, we won't, we'll arm their governments with just enough to keep the fighting going on as long as possible. Quick wars just arent as profitable as prolongued wars and God forbid the people actually having a say where the border is, thats for the elite ruling class only!

 

Venezuela already cut a deal with the US to hold free elections next year. I think the 'weakness' here is Maduro's. His nation is falling apart and he is almost universally hated at home. He NEEDS a distraction & something to rally at least some poeple & the military around. It would only take the proverbial US gunboat turning up to shut this down. I half suspect that will happen if Venezuela looks remotely like doing anything.

 

Time for a battalion of paratroopers to make a goodwill visit and do some exercises with the Guyanan army

 

That would work for me.

Other options would include a small naval taskforce doing some 'exercises', aircraft making some 'friendly' visits & US SPECOPS deciding that Guyana was a fine location to brush up on their jungle training.

The smart move for the US here might be to lead from behind'. Whiel Venezuela is incredibly unpopular in the region, there are still nations who are not that keen on direct unilateral US intervention. I suspect that with a little bit of work some sort of OAS or at least multi national regional force could be cobbled together. US doing the heavy lifting (especially with naval vessels & logistics), but plenty of local faces for the cameras.

Personally I don't think even Maduro is this stupid, but there are too many examples of nations doing stupid stuff like this to ignore it.

 

This is Maduro trying to distract from domestic collapse and unite his "people" to a common "foe".....what's troublesome, there seems to be always global "interests" in having world instability around black gold.

 

Depends on who (El Saud?, China?, Russia?) is encouraging and backing this move he's claiming to make. I assume that American companies are doing the resource extraction?

 

I seriously doubt anyone is 'encouraging' this in a way that makes the slightest difference. I'm sure Russia & one or two other failed states have sent messages of support, but this is all about Maduro's catastrophic management of his own nation.

 

You maybe right about Maduro's survival instincts but chaos is a ladder and since around 2014 fascists and authoritarian movements seem to be popping up all over. Money/organization has to be flowing towards them.

 

I don't think Yes Prime Minister ever got it more right than in this episode;
Battles between PM and Foreign Office | Yes Prime Minister (youtube.com)

 

Um....Ukrainian civilians were armed, and they were also military trained, since they had conscription.

Gun law in Ukraine
Ukraine is the only country in Europe where firearms are not regulated by statute. Everything related to firearms is regulated by Order №622 of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. Citizens are permitted to own non-fully automatic rifles and shotguns as long as they are stored properly when not in use.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gun_law_in_Ukraine#:~:text=Ukraine is the only country,properly when not in use.

It seems that way.

 

Partisanship appears to be an incurable affliction.

 

I think it was in one of those episodes where he asked, half joking "can we just send a gunboat?", then shortly after more seriously, "can we?". That might just work in the current circumstance.

 

'Not regulated by statute' is a pretty deceptive way of saying the next part that you skipped over:

"A license is required to own firearms, and a citizen may be issued a license if that person:

• is 25 years of age for rifle ownership, 21 years of age for smoothbore weapon ownership, 18 years of age for cold or pneumatic weapon ownership;
• has no criminal record;
• has no history of domestic violence;
• has no mental illness or history of mental illness;
• has a good reason (target shooting, hunting, collection)."

So, just like the rest of Europe, Ukrainians do not have THE RIGHT to own firearms (or pellet guns or even paintball guns, apparently), and self defense is not a 'good reason' to be granted a permit. Prolly why they only had 1 firearm for every 10 people (and most of those were likely 'collections' held by the elite friends of the govt who could get a permit) and were the 88th most armed nation in the world just prior to their invasion by Russia, and why their govt scrambled to try and pass out a bunch of rifles in the days just prior. Seems like something that woulda worked better if it had been done WAY earlier...

Heh, and wiki even spells it out this time:
"Because of the lack of statutes regarding firearm ownership, authorities have great discretion when giving firearm licenses. The president and ministers often give guns to members of the elite, while making it hard for ordinary people to obtain them. It is estimated that more than 50,000 guns have been issued as presents from authorities."

Thats the true goal (and inevitable outcome) of gun control, right there. The use of force monopolized for the wealthy and political elites. ...none of whom are likely in the trenches shooting at Russians right now.

 

PM; It's just a goodwill visit
Humphrey; Don't you think 750 fully armed paratroopers is a little excessive?
PM; No it's just an awful lot of goodwill!