Which part of the US will succumb, to SEA LEVEL RISE, first?

Discussion in 'Environment & Conservation' started by bobgnote, Jul 31, 2012.

  1. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2020
    Messages:
    28,128
    Likes Received:
    17,785
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Every paper linked in the NTZ post was peer-reviewed and published. NTZ is a valuable aggregator of such research.
    And there is no claim in the NTZ post or any of the linked papers that sea level has dropped. That is a straw man of your own creation.
     
    Sunsettommy likes this.
  2. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2009
    Messages:
    12,553
    Likes Received:
    2,454
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Which means nothing if the source can not be checked, and it was taken out of context.

    Then you had better check again!

    https://notrickszone.com/2022/01/10...t-catastrophic-sea-level-rise-cannot-keep-up/

    It is right there in the first post I commented on, are you now trying to say it is not there? You had better go back and look again!

    Now how about an apology and a withdrawal of that "straw man of my own creation" comment. I did not make it up, it is right there on the post itself.

    [​IMG]

    Come on now, you should know me better than that by now. As I always say, my only interest is in accuracy and truth, I have absolutely no "political axe to grind". Because now you are acting just like one of those alarmists that screams I just have to "read the report". As I say, I do read references, but often simply dismiss them as I see they are obviously biased and sloppy. Such as this one.

    But if you want, I can do this all day long.
     
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2022
  3. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2020
    Messages:
    28,128
    Likes Received:
    17,785
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    That reference was to the mid-Holocene highstand, approximately 6,000 years ago, and 2-3 meter decline of sea level from there until recent times. That is not in dispute anywhere. It has nothing to do with the departure of the sea from Ephesus in historic times. The point of the NTZ post was not falling sea level, but the countervailing process against SLR of shoreline build-out, which is why the post's title notes that SLR "cannot keep up."
     
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2022
  4. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2009
    Messages:
    12,553
    Likes Received:
    2,454
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    I don't think so. I have never heard of a reference stating "recent millennia" as being over 6kya. Especially as that was a very local event in the Pacific islands. Not a global event, as they are implying by saying "sea levels". And it was largely caused by the change in ocean currents after the ice sheets broke up, but delayed as such things often are.

    Sorry, the claim does not match what you are trying to claim. And once again, it was not by "2-3 meters". It was at most plus or minus .8 meters (and notice it is plus and minus both, not just one).

    As I said, sloppy science that is more conspiracy and junk than real science. It is in dispute, but for some reason you seem to actually believe that.

    But I also noticed, no retraction from accusing me of making things up. I am watching you try to twist to try and keep it all straight.

    Also, looking through their other posts is interesting. It is almost the exact opposite. Like $10 a gallon gasoline is right around the corner. That thousands will die in "green energy blackouts" in the near future. The laughable article that "Volcanic ash is a major problem for solar panels. Gee, as somebody who went through Mt. St. Helens, that is hardly a freaking surprise. Volcanic ash is a major problem for anything, including houses and cars.

    Or the ones that make me want to shake my head and laugh. Like "Glaciers existing today were absent for nearly all of the last 10,000 years!" Well, no duh! Most of the glaciers today are pretty freaking new, that has nothing to do with the claims of the "AGW" claimers. Hell, both Mt. St. Helens and Mt Lassen have glaciers on them, even though both had their previous glaciers destroyed in eruptions in the last century. I doubt there are very many glaciers left other than a few remnants that stretch back that far.

    No, that is entirely a nonsense blog for anybody that believes anything they read.

    Also interesting is the descents into anti-vaxxing, that lemon and garlic can hold off COVID, and that sugar is a poison and should be taxed at over 1,000% it's commercial value. And how miserable the government, his friend, and family are making it for him and his family since they refuse to get vaccinated. Oh, and there is a "death list" that states that killing the 250 Germans most critical of COVID measures should be eliminated "in order to save tens of thousands".

    No, you fell hook, line, and sinker for a conspiracy filled garbage fake website. But hey, if you think they are accurate, more power to you. It just tells me how seriously to take any of your future postings.
     
  5. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2020
    Messages:
    28,128
    Likes Received:
    17,785
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    You are free take my posts as seriously (or not) as you wish. I'm not here to impress anyone. Meanwhile, here's more background you may have missed.

    Huge Database Of Studies Documenting Meters-Higher Mid-Holocene Sea Levels Swells Again In 2020
    By Kenneth Richard on 4. January 2021

    In 2020, scientists continued to publish papers affirming global sea levels are today about 2 meters lower than they were a few thousand years ago. During the last interglacial (~116 to 128 thousand years ago), when CO2 peaked at just 280 ppm but surface temperatures were so much warmer that much less water was locked […]

    [​IMG]
    Several New Papers Indicate Sea Levels Were 1 – 3 Meters Higher Than Today A Few Thousand Years Ago

    By Kenneth Richard on 14. May 2020

    Both during the last interglacial (~120,000 years ago) and from roughly 2000 to 7000 years ago, relative sea levels were from 6-10 meters to 1-3 meters higher than they are today, respectively. For a list of over 100 other scientific papers indicating sea levels across the world were multiple meters higher when Earth’s CO2 concentrations […]

    19 Papers Published In 2019 Affirm Sea Levels Were METERS Higher Than Today 4-8 Thousand Years Ago
    By Kenneth Richard on 16. January 2020

    The onslaught of paleoclimate evidence for warmer-than-now Mid-Holocene climates – when the Earth’s sea levels were meters higher than they are today – stormed through 2019. There were 107 scientific papers published this past year indicating today’s warmth isn’t even close to being unusual or unprecedented when compared to the climates of the last centuries […]

    Posted in Paleo-climatology, Sea Levels | 18 Responses

    [​IMG]
    New Paper: Widespread Collapse Of Ice Sheets ~5000 Years Ago Added 3-4 Meters To Rising Seas
    By Kenneth Richard on 11. March 2019

    During the Mid-Holocene, when CO2 concentrations were stable and low (270 ppm), Antarctica’s massive Ross Ice Shelf naturally collapsed, adding the meltwater equivalent of 3-4 meters to sea levels. Because CO2 concentrations changed very modestly during the pre-industrial Holocene (approximately ~25 ppm in 10,000 years), climate models that are predicated on the assumption that CO2 […]

    Posted in Antarctic, Glaciers, Paleo-climatology, Sea Levels | 22 Responses

    [​IMG]
    Oyster Evidence Affirms Sea Levels Were Up To 3.8 Meters Higher Than Today 6000 Years Ago
    By Kenneth Richard on 7. February 2019

    According to a new paper (Oliver and Terry, 2019) published in Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, oyster remains have been found encrusted in rock 2.5 to 3.8 meters above the present mean sea level. This fossilized evidence dates to ~6000 to years ago, a period when the Earth’s surface temperatures were 4-6°C warmer than they are today. Image(s) Source: Oliver […]
     
  6. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2009
    Messages:
    12,553
    Likes Received:
    2,454
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Laughable, an once again incorrect, espeically the last one.

    "Sea Levels" were not "up to 3.8 meters higher", and I looked at that.

    In Thailand. We already established that the pacific basin saw increases, where do you think Thailand is? It was not global, so saying "sea levels" is completely inaccurate. It was not global, it was specific to the Pacific Basin.

    Which by the way has significantly greater tides than any other ocean on the planet. When conjoined with the Indian and other oceans, it is the largest basin of water on the planet. And tidal forces give it much great differences in tides, especially when compared to the Atlantic which is constrained to the east and west so had among the lowest tidal differences. Hence, increased differences in "sea level" because of tides does not equate to sea level rise globally, especially in the Atlantic.

    Interesting, the exact same reason I busted the claim of an AGW true believer I am now using against you. But go ahead, believe whatever you want. But you should check to make sure you were not put on that COVID death list by accident.
     
  7. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2020
    Messages:
    28,128
    Likes Received:
    17,785
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    As you wish. I had no idea Scotland, Denmark and Florida, to name only three, were in the Pacific Basin.
    I am uninterested in NTZ's COVID posts.
     
  8. Sunsettommy

    Sunsettommy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 16, 2017
    Messages:
    1,713
    Likes Received:
    1,466
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Written by a 30 year Geologist with plenty of evidence posted showing that Sea level was higher all over the world in the early and middle Holocene.

    Watts Up With That?

    The Holocene Sea Level Highstand

    Excerpt:

    Guest geological note by David Middleton

    Most skeptics are familiar with the Warmunist efforts to erase the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age.

    [​IMG]
    Figure 0. Mann’s infamous Hockey Stick (IPCC, 2001)

    However, many skeptics may not be aware of efforts to erase another paleoclimatological feature: The Holocene Highstand.

    LINK


     
    Jack Hays likes this.
  9. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2020
    Messages:
    28,128
    Likes Received:
    17,785
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Brazil, that Pacific paradise.
    Lopes et al., 2020 (Brazil)

    “The late Pleistocene-middle Holocene post-glacial marine transgression (PMT) that started around 18 ka b2k in response to the melting of ice caps and glaciers, together with increased precipitation, would have led to another lake highstand (Figure 3A). Sea-level curves obtained from several sites along the Brazilian coast show that a mean sea level (m.s.l.) equal to the present one was reached at ~7 ka b2k, and continued to rise until reaching up to +5 meters between 6 and 5 ka b2k (Martin et al., 2003; Angulo et al., 2006). In the CPRS the PMT formed the Barrier IV, and the estimates based on geologic and fossil records indicate that it reached amplitude of about 2-3 meters above the present m.s.l. (Barboza and Tomazelli, 2003; Caron, 2007; Lima et al., 2013; Dillenburg et al., 2017).”
    “The altitude of the terrace T3 above the fossils of Toxodon found in situ indicates this was cut by the Holocene sea-level highstand that reached a maximum altitude of 3 meters [above present] between 6 and 5.1 ka b2k. At that time Mirim Lake was invaded by the Atlantic Ocean through Taim and São Gonçalo channel, becoming a large paleo-lagoon with conditions suitable for its occupation by marine organisms, including sharks, rays, teleost fishes and whales. The coastal waters were warmer than today, as indicated by the presence of fossils of the shark Carcharhinus leucas, common in tropical areas.”
    [​IMG]

    Image Source: Lopes et al., 2020
     
  10. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2020
    Messages:
    28,128
    Likes Received:
    17,785
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Lucky for me that NTZ aggregates the relevant research.
    Kylander et al., 2019 Scotland, +9 m higher than present

    “At present, the Laphroaig bog is edged by a dune system, but this sand source may have looked very different at the time peat accumulation started 6670 cal. a BP. A primary control on dune building is RSL. Glacial isostatic modelling, supported by radiocarbon-dated sea-level index points, show that the RSL on Islay was about 9 m higher at 6000 cal. a BP, and fell in a linear fashion to 2.2 m higher than present at 2000–1000 cal. a BP (Fig. 7C;Dawsonet al. 1998; Shennan et al. 2006a,b).”

    Meeder and Harlem, 2019 Southeast Florida (USA), +1-1.3 m higher than present

    “Sea level was at ca 8 m above present during the last interglacial ca 120,000 yr bp inundating the entire platform during deposition of the Miami Limestone strata (Moore, 1982) … The marls form a leaky seal on the Everglades floor (Figure 14B) slowing water infiltration and storing water, increasing the hydroperiod and providing an environment suitable for peat deposition which started ca 4,500 yr bp (Gleason & Stone, 1994) at elevations between 1 and 1.3 m above present sea level (Wanless et al., 1994). … The historic high‐water stage occurred prior to drainage when the water stage was between 0.6 and 2 m higher than present in the study area (McVoy et al., 2011; Parker, 1975; Parker et al., 1955).”

    Bondevik et al., 2019 Western Norway, +8.2 to +9 m higher than present

    “We conclude that the maximum sea level of the Tapes transgression lasted 2000 years from 7600 cal yr BP and extended into the Early Neolithic, to about 5600 cal yr BP (Fig. 13), with an uncertainty of about 100 years. We estimate that the highest spring tide during the Tapes transgression maximum phase was between 8.2 and 9.0 m above the present mean sea level. … To account for additional uncertainties, we suggest that the spring tide sea level at Longva would have been 8.6 ± 0.4 m above present day mean sea level during the Tapes transgression maximum.”


    [​IMG]


    Rasmussen et al., 2019
    Denmark, +3 m higher than present

    “Full marine phase (c. 7700–3700 cal. a BP). – The appearance of a high salinity demanding fauna in this phase (several mollusc species, echinoids and Quinqueloculina seminulum) indicates a change to full marine conditions (Figs 4, 11). This marked environmental change coincides with a rapid and significant sea-level rise documented in both the Danish and the Baltic area dated to around 7600 cal. a BP (Fig. 11; Morner 1969; Christensen 1995, 1997; Yu et al. 2007; Lampe et al. 2011; Sander et al. 2015) and probably of global extent related to the so-called ‘global meltwater pulse 3’ documented in Caribbean-Atlantic coral sea-level records c. 7600 cal. a BP (Blanchon & Shaw 1995; Blanchon et al. 2002; Bird et al. 2010; Blanchon 2011a,b). Based on data from a recent study on the island of Samsø in the central Kattegat, Sander et al. (2015) estimated a relative sea-level rise of ~4.5 m between 7600 and 7200 cal. a BP. A high sea level in Aarhus Bay at this stage is supported by an almost complete absence of terrestrial plant macrofossils (Fig. 5) testifying to an increased distance between the core site and the shore. … In the period of greatly increased sedimentation (c. 7700–6300 cal. a BP), the average rate is ~2.8 mm a1 (Fig. 11). The extensive coastal erosion during this sea-level highstand period is manifested in today’s landscape in the form of numerous fossil coastal cliffs situated above present-day sea level that formed during the Mid-Holocene when the relative sea level was ~3 m higher than present along the coasts of the Aarhus Bay area (Mertz 1924). … In a study of the island of Anholt in the central part of the Kattegat, the drop in absolute sea level was estimated to 2.6 m over a 700-year period between 4300 and 3600 cal. a BP (with most of the sea-level fall taking place between 4250 and 3740 cal. aBP; Clemmensenet al. 2012).”

    Nirgi et al., 2019 Baltic Sea, +10 m higher than present (rate: +3.5 meters per century)

    “Considering the elevations of the pre-Ancylus Lake palaeochannel sediments in the Pärnu site and the highest coastal landforms in the area, the water level rose at least 17.5 m at an average rate of 35 mm per year, which is 5–6 m more than proposed by earlier studies in this area (Rosentau et al., 2011; Veski et al., 2005). Similar fast transgression (40 mm/yr), about 21–22 m, has been documented inthe Blekinge area between 10.8 and 10.3 cal. ka BP (Hansson et al., 2018a). … At about 8.2–7.8 cal. Ka BP, the rising Litorina Sea flooded the palaeochannel in the Pärnu site and floodplain in Reiu at an elevation of 1–2 m b.s.l., around 7.6–7.8 cal. ka BP Rannametsa site at an elevation of 4 m a.s.l. and around 7.6–7.4 cal. ka BP Sindi BOM layer at an elevation of 7 m a.s.l. (Figure 7). The Litorina Sea reached its maximum transgressional RSL ca. 10 m a.s.l. [meters above present sea level] just after 7.6 cal. ka BP, most probably around 7.3 cal. ka BP (Veski et al., 2005), as also determined in Narva-Luga region at the south-eastern coast of Gulf of Finland (Rosentau et al., 2013). Thus, during the transgression, the sea level rose by about 14 m at an average rate of 12 mm per year.”
    [​IMG]
     
  11. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2020
    Messages:
    28,128
    Likes Received:
    17,785
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male

Share This Page