Why vaccine nationalism is wrong

OK, so let's look at our stock of vaccines.

We have purchased 300 million doses from Pfizer and 300 million doses from Moderna.

This is enough to vaccinate 300 million Americans (both vaccines need two shots).

Now, the Johnson and Johnson deal is imminent. We reserved 100 million doses and this is a one-shot vaccine. As soon as the vaccine gets approved by the end of February, we qualify for these doses, enough to vaccinate 100 million Americans.

So. That's 400 million Americans... but our population is only 332,225,037 people.

Not to forget that these vaccines are for people 16 and older, and 18 and older. So, that's minus about 24% of the total population (the US population has 24% of people under 18 - I'll use that number given that it's available and I don't know the number for under 16).

So we only have 252,491,028 people eligible for these vaccines... and we have secured enough for 400,000,000.

Some 30% of our people don't even want the vaccine. Let's be optimistic and say, only 20% of the eligible ones won't want it. That's now only 201,992,822 people willing to take them.

So we roughly have twice as many doses as we need.

OK, some redundancy is good. Some companies will deliver faster than others, there will be some spoiled vials... But overshooting by roughly 200 million doses??? That's overkill.

And then we also have a 100-million doses agreement with Novavax, and a 300-million deal with AstraZeneca (if we ever approve them). That would be enough to vaccinate another 200 million people.

So we may end up with three times as many doses as we need.

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What should we do? Keep them for a rainy day, for booster shots? Sure, that sounds attractive... the problem is the new variants. Soon, these vaccines will start losing efficacy. It's not like they'll last forever in terms of efficacy, as the virus mutates. Most likely, it would be wiser to already get updated vaccines for booster shots, starting in late fall or in 2022.

Therefore our excess of vaccines may indeed be useless.

What should we do?

The answer is very simple: we shoud donate the excess to the Covax Facility, the WHO initiative meant to provide free or low cost vaccines to Third World countries.

Some of the more callous people here might say, "F... them. I don't care."

Well, but see, you should. Why?

Because poorly vaccinated Third World countries will be reservoirs of the virus. Allowed to replicate, the virus will mutate more and more, and eventually will defeat entirely the existing vaccines. What do you all suppose will happen in this situation? The new variants will come back to haunt us... We can implement all travel bans we want but they'll still come in.

For example, we have a travel ban against Brazil for months... but their dangerous new variant P.1 made it into America anyway. The South African variant, also dangerous, is here too; not to forget the UK Kent variant (not that the UK is Third World, of course not; but just saying, these variants always find a way in).

If we let the Third World countries to their own devices, they will continue to breed new variants that will evade the vaccines better and better and will result in re-infections... and suddenly we may find ourselves back to square zero when (rather than if) these variants find their way back here.

The AstraZeneca vaccine is supposed to finish its American phase 3 by the end of March. If they then apply for authorization and the FDA grants it, we will have the contratual obligation to purchase 300 million doses. We should donate these doses to the Covax Facility immediately, and also, the eventual 100 million Novavax doses when they get approved.

We do NOT need the AstraZeneca and the Novavax vaccines. We'll do quite well with just the Moderna, the Pfizer, and the Johnson and Johnson vaccines; more than enough.

Vaccine nationalism will only facilitate the breeding of mutations. No first world country should gobble up more than the doses they need, plus a 10% surplus just to account for spoilage and delays. Germany is another one with hugely oversized orders. They also should donate their excess to the Covax Facility.

The more people vaccinated around the world, the fewer variants of concern will emerge.

 

Makes sense. Now, how do we get the "powers that be" onboard?

 

Why do they call a gene editing injection a vaccine?

Is there a propaganda angle to that? Confusing and misleading an already confused and frightened public?

I think it's related to why they used a test not designed for diagnostic purposes, for diagnostic purposes.

Orwell observed that changing the meaning of words has a natural result of confusing thought processes.

 

Of course, this makes sense to you and me, but not to the MAGA crowd.

 

Call your senator.

 

The MAGA crowd doesn't even believe in the virus, much less in the vaccine. They are probably the bulk of the 30-40% who are declining to accept the vaccine. So they are lost causes anyway. Darwin will decrease their numbers.

I'll tell you something you won't believe. You'll say I'm making it up. I swear I'm not, although I didn't hear it first hand. At least, I'm not making this story up; I'm passing it on like I heard it. A friend of mine who is also a doctor, has a female co-worker, doctor too. My friend thinks she is a good doctor. So, this woman does believe that Bill Gates has placed microchips inside the vaccines to control us all. I find it quite incredible. I didn't want to believe him at first. He quoted her by name. His wife said, "yes, I know her too; we've invited her and her husband over for dinner, and yes, that's what she says." Can you believe it, a doctor, embracing this absurd and completely impossible conspiracy theory??? She was one of the few doctors in my friend's hospital who declined the vaccine.

Now, if you can even find someone like this among doctors... let alone among the uneducated portion of the MAGA crowd.

 

The 'MAGA crowd' doesn't have any more influence in the political-pharmaceutical establishment... how long are you gonna keep blaming the corruption of our elites on one political faction?

FTR, I consent for my doses to be sent to another country as I won't be needing them.

 

I suppose they could be traded for resources. We could even take a loss on the deal, but shouldn't we, the taxpayer, get something out of it? Nah, I guess that would just be pure evil - after all, this is the United States, the land where money and resources just magically appear in the halls of congress.

Hey, trade for some resources, and give those resources to homeless people. There ya go.

 

It's religion. We go crazy about sending our kids to school to learn critical thinking and respect for reason and facts then give a good portion of our money and time to an organization devoted to propitiating magical sky fairies.

Religion is fine, in its place and that place is in saying we all ought to be nice to everyone. It's when we go out and beat people up because they don't agree with us that the Earth is just 6000 years old, that's when we begin to understand why so many believe in Q-Anon

I took my kids out of Catholic School because they knew a whole litany of Saints but couldn't even tell me what the Beatitudes were.

 

On sell the to Australia - we are only just starting our vaccination program

No in all honesty we may need to keep some for “booster” shots if the vaccine effect fades over time but I think more importantly it should be distributed to countries nearby who may bring variants into the USA

 

It's better tp donated them to the Covax Facility for distribution throughout the Third World because it's not just nearby countries. The United States is such a destination for international travelers that variants can get here from anywhere. South Africa and Brazil are not nearby and their variants B.1.351 and P.1 are already here.

 

Unfortunately there are no limit to the number of medicos with weird theories

 

Agreed!! Unfortunately I was pandering (a little) to the right wing many of whom believe America should not help the rest of the world. But I personally would love to see America ensure places like Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands and Guam are vaccinated first. India has ramped up its vaccine production and is supplying huge numbers of vaccines to not only its own people but much of the third world.


Meanwhile here in Australia

https://indopacifichealthsecurity.d...-covid-19-vaccine-equity-developing-countries

We will do what we can

 

Australia doing much better than the US in a number of fronts.

 

It's been announced that the president of Mexico will ask Biden to share our vaccines with them. I think we should do it. Like I said, we have more than we need and it is good to help our neighbors, not only for humanitarian reasons but also because we don't want them to do poorly, have a lot of replication with new variants developing, and then these variants crossing the border and biting us.

By the end of July we'll have enough vaccine for 400 million Americans. We don't have 400 million people and there is also the proportion of children (these vaccines were approved, one for 16 and up, and two for 18 and up) who aren't candidates for these vaccines (24% of our population) plus the people who decline to be vaccinated.

Joe Biden, do make sure that all Americans who want the vaccine get it, but after that, give the excess to Mexico. It makes sense.

The Mexican president will ask for a loan. He plans to give back the vaccines to us once later in the year he receives the orders he purchased. That is fair but I don't even think that it is necessary. Once we vaccinate all of our people who want it, the next necessary move is to get boosters tweaked for the new variants. The existing vaccine will lose its utility. So give the excess to Mexico where it will be put to good use.

It is necessary to carefully calculate this, so that any donation to Mexico doesn't slow down our vaccination program for Americans. But we've been seeing that distribution and inoculation bottlenecks are more responsible for delays than the actual delivery of vaccines. At one point there's just as much capacity to get the vaccine into people's arms. If we calculate that we are at a logistical maximum and more vaccine deliveries won't expedite it, then that excess should be given to Mexico.

Like I calculated above, we're likely to have 202 million Americans who want the vaccines and are eligible for them. But our existing orders for the 3 approved vaccines are enough for 400 million people. Say, we want to keep enough for redundant capacity to protect us against spoilage and accidental losses, and people who change their minds later and then want it. Say we want to keep enough for another 98 million people, for a total of 300 million.

We'd still have enough to help Mexico with vaccinating 100 million Mexicans. Their population is made of 127 million. One fourth of it is children and some people there will decline the vaccine too, and they do have some vaccine that they already secured, so our 100 million would be sufficient to complete their program.

Basically we have enough to vaccinate all Americans who want it, AND all Mexicans who want it. Why not share?

 

Because it's a dangerous drug.

 

This may be obvious to you medical care providers but it's not to me. What good would it do for us to get the vaccines they ordered (whenever they arrive) if the variants are already here and spreading? Would that make the current vaccine obsolete?

 

Yes, that's why I said this in the very post you've just quoted:

"The Mexican president will ask for a loan. He plans to give back the vaccines to us once later in the year he receives the orders he purchased. That is fair but I don't even think that it is necessary. Once we vaccinate all of our people who want it, the next necessary move is to get boosters tweaked for the new variants. The existing vaccine will lose its utility. So give the excess to Mexico where it will be put to good use."

I meant, it is fair for him to offer it this way but like I said, it won't be necessary because by then the vaccines he'd try to give back to us would likely be obsolete.

I'm also saying, keeping this excess we have for a rainy day doesn't make that much sense for the very same reason.

We should use all our stock for all of our citizens who want the vaccines, and then immediately donate all the excess, because that excess won't be that helpful anyway in the second semester, at which point we should be focused on obtaining second generation boosters targeting the new variants.

 

My apologies. I was reading too fast. That makes sense. I think it's a great idea.