Republicans seem as optimistic as ever to regain the senate this year but do they have what it takes? They currently need a net gain of 6 seats. The most likely seats that can flip to Republican control from democratic control are: West Virginia South Dakota Montana The next most vulnerable democrat seat is Arkansas. So that means they really only still have to fight for two more to reach the magic number of 51. There are 4 democrat seats that are still vulnerable. North Carolina Louisiana Alaska And believe it or not but the republican candidate Terri Land is starting to gain an edge over her incumbent democratic opponent in Michigan. But then again Republicans haven't been able to win a senate seat there since 1972. Republicans are still going on the offensive by recruiting experienced veteran candidates to challenge democrat incumbents in Virginia and Newhampshire. Although those are long shots they could be put into play soon. Democrats only have pickup opportunities in Georgia and Kentucky but that is unlikely. So... With Obama's long dreaded "6 year itch" midterm election approaching, Democrats will have to dig in and holdout against republicans on an electoral map that favors the GOP, not to mention in red states, with a flawed health law, record low job creations, various scandals since the last election, and historical trends which favors the GOP in order to defend their senate majority. The battle lines are set and candidates have begun their campaigning already. There is no doubt that republicans will gain something but will they gain enough?
I'm not feeling it for midterms... I don't have a particular reason, it just doesn't seem like they can swing it unless the GOP comes out with a hard-hitting bill that gets bipartisan support & has a high approval rating (unlikely). Now I'm totally putting my money on a complete GOP takeover come 2016 (especially if Obamacare is a bad as I have a feeling it's going to be), but I think the Dems just hold too much of America's mindshare to let both the Senate & House go/stay in enemy hands.
Obamacare will cause millions of more policy cancellations right around election time, any liberal who voted for it will be vulnerable...
The Republican leadership, Cantor, Boehner, (*)(*)(*)(*)(*) McConnell, etc, are doing everything in their power to ensure the DemocRATs keep control of the Senate in 2014. History says that KIng Obama, as a "president" facing his second mid-term election, will lose six seats in the Senate. The Republicans don't want that to happen, if their actions are any guide.
But you have to remember it will be much easier for the GOP to take the senate this year than it will be in 2016 because all the tea party and republican senators who came into office in the wave election in 2010 will be up for reelection in 2016. The republicans will most likely lose 2 to 3 seats in 2016 and if Hillary Clinton runs and gets the polls flooded with democrats then they could probably lose about 5 or 6, but they're chances of regaining those seats are really good in 2018 where there will be more democrats up in red states than this year. If they win the majority this year, and keep the house then they can force Obama to use his veto power which will officially label him as a lame duck. If the Republicans keep their cool with their newly won senate majority and pass bills which hold moderate conservative values and Obama keeps vetoing them then the American public will get angry and make life hell for any democrat running in 2016 for president including Clinton. So overall I think they can possibly hold more than a 51 seat majority. This is a map of what Sabato over at the university of Virginia, someone who has precisely and accurately predicted recent elections, thinks how the race for the senate looks like so far.
