Will the War in Gaza Ignite the Middle East?..Israel and Iran On a Collision Course

I had also thought that full scale war was not very likely. But two things that should be noted are that, first, Hezbollah also has Iranian drones. Second, Israel is not the only potential target, and by more than just Hezbollah. U.S. military bases, in recent days, have faced drone attacks. If I'm not mistaken, MSNBC has reported that a recent attack, in Syria, was with drones, launched by the Houthis (an Iranian ally, in Yemen!). This is a sign of a potential slow burn of attacks, the U.S. may face, depending on how proceeds, the Israeli invasion of Gaza.

 

Iran is in many at its nadir domestically and has its own weaknesses. Under the circumstances, Iran certainly does not want war. For that reason, one of it's most pressing concerns is to make sure the Israeli assualt on Gaza does not create images and pictures where a larger war becomes almost inevitable regardless of what anyone wants, while it also does not want to seem like it has or will abadon an ally in time of need. It is a tight rope that will be hard to navigate unless somehow the situation is contained.

The fact that Israel is in many ways trapped by its own rhetoric and propaganda into proclaiming objectives in Gaza that are simply beyond its reach and capabilities makes the whole situation triply dangerous. But the military dynamics of conflict are different than what emerges from listening to bombastic statements by Israeli officials catoring to the home crowd or to rather clueless pro Israel propaganda artists who usually feature as analysts on America's MSM. I had mentioned at the start of the conflict shortly after October 7 that a couple of weeks will need to pass to allow Israel vent out its anger before a more realistic view of what Israel can or cannot achieve in Gaza starts to emerge.

https://www.al-monitor.com/original...-doubts-grow-about-israels-abilities-gaza-war
Washington warns Iran as doubts grow about Israel's abilities in Gaza war
The White House on Monday accused Iran of "actively facilitating" attacks against US troops in Iraq and Syria as Washington pledges to continue its support for Israel's war in Gaza.

 

Let's see how many Palestinian refugees Iran is prepared to take. Lol.

 

Or how many Sunni Palestinians would actually want to be repatriated to Shiat Ali Iran.

 

yeah true...makes one wonder about the diaspora...those that have left Iran over the past decades being those with the most to offer against those that have stayed being the less capable (for want of a better phrase) allowing the mullahs to have less vocal opposition...not sure how true that is but it would make sense to let those potential "trouble makers" leave allowing greater influence and control over those that remain..?

....one would hope that eventually there will be a successful uprising and one would hope that there will eventually be a separation of church and state and an end to this absurd bastardisation of Khomeini's Velâyat-e Faqih. I'm sure that Iran could be a valued member of the community of nations if it got rid of these semi-literate religious zealots.

 

I can Iran gets involved, we get involved and will finally have an excuse to reset that ****ing country

 

You are not well versed about Iran. Iran's brain drain notwithstanding, it still the leading country in the MENA region in scientific production. Its young students have more academic Olympiad medals than all of the countries in the MENA region (including Israel) combined and is among the top 10 in the world. Iran has more engineers than any country in the region (around 5th worldwide). I can go on and one, but I will just post some of the videos and graphs from a post I made a few years back here.





2- Iran has more engineers than all of the MENA region combined.

https://www.universityworldnews.com/post.php?story=20210527140604944
Iran leads the way to revive MENA commitment to knowledge
According to a latest study titled The Changing Research Landscape of the Middle East, North Africa and Turkey by the Institute for Scientific Information (ISI), Iran has even left Israel and Turkey behind as the largest producer of research papers among 19 countries in the Middle East, North Africa and Turkey (MENAT), with its world share of the Web of Science literature – just 0.2% in 2000 – surging to 2.3% in less than two decades.

 

well that's just fine...all those poor people under a corrupt theocracy....imagine how well respected they'd be if the ousted those cretious religious madmen....which is my point

 

Iran is certainly a leader in academic paper mills and fraudulent publications.
Retraction Watch
Tracking retractions as a window into the scientific process

 

Iran's idea of a quantum computer:



It's a miracle they build any weapons system that works. What they do build are simple things that fly in a straight line and go boom.

 

Science production rankings are based on publications published and cited in accredited scientific journals. But lets focus elsewhere. Take the academic Olympiads. For instance, take the math Olympiad (and Iran's students rank even better in chemistry and physics etc).
from the official website for the math Olympiad:
http://www.imo-official.org/results_country.aspx?column=awards&order=desc

Pay close attention: Iran has some 200 medals, 50 of them gold. Iran ranks 12th worldwide right above Japan (and several places above France) and right below Germany. Take all of the MENA (including Israel and Turkey) and combine all their gold medals. The total for all of them (Turkey and Israel each have 20 but not a single gold medal for all of the rest in the MENA region, meaning all of MENA minus Iran have 40 gold medals while Iran has 50 by itself!).

Anyway, the videos and charts I posted speak for themselves.

 

How to fail: Try too hard.

Malcolm Forbes

 

Here is how the technology tracker by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute sees things:

https://www.aspi.org.au/report/critical-technology-tracker

....The race to be the next most important technological powerhouse [after China and the US] is a close one between the UK and India, both of which claim a place in the top five countries in 29 of the 44 technologies. South Korea and Germany follow closely behind, appearing in the top five countries in 20 and 17 technologies, respectively. Australia is in the top five for nine technologies, followed closely by Italy (seven technologies), Iran (six), Japan (four) and Canada (four).

 

I seriously doubt there will be an all-out war between Iran and Israel. It would set Iran back decades. Even now they still fly F4 Phantoms, which are 50 yrs old. Iran is also pretty far away from Israel, and the Israeli air force would have plenty of time to take out Iranian tanks during the 2 400 km / 1 500 Mile trek (actually more, because I doubt they could take the shortest route through Iraq), Half of their armor probably would not even make it that far without breaking down.

 

While a war that would directly involve Iran is unlikely for now, and even though if such a war would take place, it would be very different than you imagine and would also involve the US, I think you should stop living in the past. The face of modern warfare is changing. The weapons systems you are referring to are yesterday's news. Precision guided ballistic missiles, UAVs, modern anti-aircraft and anti-tank missiles, etc will all play more significant roles than MBTs and manned aircraft. Iran doesn't need manned aircraft to bomb a target of its choice. It doesn't need fighters to intercept enemy aircraft. It doesn't need manned reconnaisance aircraft to spot enemy forces. It has different systems to get the job done even more effectively..

 

"No person should rely on the contents of this publication without first obtaining advice from a qualified professional."

 

big whoop....all pretty irrelevant when the country is a repressive religious crap hole bent solely on the supply of weapons and weapons technology to other repressive crap holes and terrorist organisations....

 

dream on....

 

Israel is 1500 miles from Iran, and although Iran has plenty of missiles, they don't have many with that kind of range. They would have to rely on smaller ones fired from Lebanon, while Israel is capable of inflicting massive damage on Iran, and it could trigger an uprising and the end of the Mullahs

 

Iran has enough missiles of the required range. And plenty of real estate and forces that can hit from closer range if necessary. It is Israel which will be limited to a surprise attack without as much to hit Iran so far away. Even the US won't like the dynamics although the latter will ultimately be able to do what you imagine Israel would be able to.

Below is from General Mc Kenzie, when he was still US CENTCOM commander.
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/01/03/the-looming-threat-of-a-nuclear-crisis-with-iran

 

I do think there will be a land invasion of Gaza. How extensive it is is another manner. Even after this terrorist attack, I don't see the Israelis having the stomach for a major pacification of the entire area. I think likely they'll establish a security perimeter near their border, flatten everything on it, and conduct operations against Hamas as intelligence permits.

I can't calculate Hezbollah's call on when enough is enough although they are continuing to engage in small scale attacks now. I've seen quite a few Hezbollah fighter casualties on Twitter, so they are engaging and getting killed, right now. What would a full scale assault by Hezbollah look like compared to what they are doing now?

 

The IDF has suffered as many casualties as Hezbollah. But these tit for tat attacks are only relevant in showing both sides resolve. A real war between them would be very different.

In the meantime, while I still believe Iran will avoid being directly involved despite the warning below, I doubt any Israeli invasion of Gaza will go without a major response by Hezbollah (and some others).
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/2...ll-strike-haifa-if-israel-invades-gaza-strip/
IRGC official: Iran will ‘strike Haifa’ if Israel invades Gaza Strip

 

OK this is a different story all together. If Iran itself attacks, not just Hezbollah, all bets are off, and that includes US participation in the war. I had already posted in another thread that about that: http://www.politicalforum.com/index...ar-if-line-is-crossed-we-wont-hesitat.614362/

If this isn't just bluster, this is almost guaranteeing war with the US. I find it hard to believe that Iran would want that, but there are plenty in the Biden administration, as well as people in both parties, who have been salivating for an opportunity like this for awhile. Surely Iran must know that.

 

I'm sure Iran doesn't want war. But it also does not want a massive assualt into Gaza that would lead to even greater suffering for the Palestinian people, increasing pressure on regional actors to get involved and increasing the chances of such a war eventually coming to fruition. That is why both Iran and Hezbollah have been very vocal in warning about the consequences of a massive Israeli assault into Gaza.

As for people in the US, in both parties, "salivating for an opportunity" to go to war with Iran, I think Iran realizes that many who aren't going to be doing the fighting themselves are eager to push others into war with Iran. What Iran has counted on is that those who would be doing the fighting and who realize what war with Iran could entail to restrain them. Generally speaking, the higher echelons in the US military have not been as anxious as some of the political figures in their countries to start off a war with Iran. Even military hawks known to advocate war with Iran, once put in a position to know better, have generally been reluctant to go on that path. Of course, a superpower like the US has a lot of room to make mistakes and not suffer nearly as much from those mistakes as those it engages in war. But war with Iran has the potential to look real bad for everyone: in theory, Iran could do a lot of damage to a lot of people and interests. The world economy could go in a tail spin and we really cannot know a priori what would be the fallout from such a war? On the Iranian side, even though Iran would suffer enormous costs regardless, with its leadership being personally threatened, it also true that sometimes, when pushed too much, and with their authority in danger of being totally undermined by inaction, people can sometimes make choices that may not appear all that sensible as well.

Ultimately, and sooner rather than later, someone needs to lower the rhetoric on the Israeli side while stopping them from imagining they can get away with destroying Gaza or changing its political landscape. The objective of destroying Hamas in Gaza doesn't seem tenable or achievable unless we are talking about destroying Gaza altogether. And I don't see how that won't inevitably cause events to spiral out of control.

 

lol please consult "a qualified professional" before relying on the following chart as well. It shows one of the 6 critical technology areas (advanced aircraft engines) where Iran is one of the top 5 powers in the world.