YouGov/CBS Battleground Poll: Clinton +6 in Ohio, tied with Trump in Iowa

Again, you have no idea what you are talking about. The poll draws from a "random" base of about 3,000 households across the US, a base which would include Democrats, Republicans, Independents, and everyone else in between. They weight their analysis based upon the 2012 results and the most recent US census.

It is probably the most methodically consistent poll you will find, and the most consistently accurate as well. Not surprising I guess, that the left would want to ignore it, and instead cherry pick only the polls that feed their egos.

Did you know that this same poll favored Hillary by 4.7% just seven days ago, and now shows her down by 2%. If you think Hillary is still ahead by 5% or more today, then you are way behind the curve pal.

 

There may very well be a different initial reaction than what people will say in after the fact polling. It would be an issue of the timing, and how emotionally responsive the people are as opposed to intellectualized responsive they are.

 

NO. This is false. It's a base of 3,000 PERMANENT participants who said they are willing to take the poll every time they are asked. That's what the RAND poll from 2012 was all about: a totally different model and the polling aggregates had absolutely no idea how to categorize the poll. I am hoping that you can understand that there is a huge difference here. Also, the RAND poll was committed to finding a MAJORITY of participants who were truly independent and truly undecided between Obama and Romney. The only problem with that is very few people are truly 100% undecided and not all are honest in the answers they give. So, this method is NOT the most consistent method at all.

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I concur with you, which is why I am against every form of push polling.

 

NO, it is not false. They find 3,000 or so people at random who are willing to participate in the poll throughout the election cycle. Of those, about 400 are picked at random each day for that day's polling sample.

What you are not getting is that the demographics of the "permanent" 3,000, as you call them, are mathematically adjusted to reflect the patterns of the 2012 election, and the latest US census bureau. For example, if there are a disproportionate number of white females or whatever in the 3,000, their data is adjusted to reflect the actual white female count in the US, and for their 2012 voting patterns. As a so-called "statistician", you should understand how such algorithms work.

I got this from their own website, as quoted below, and I have no reason to believe that they are falsifying their own methodology, do you?

As of today, Trump is still holding onto a slim 1% lead using their methodology. The Titanic called Hillary has taken on a lot of water over the last week. You might want to start looking for a life-raft.

 

So, getting back to the OP, which is about polling in OHIO:

another poll shows Clinton ahead by +4

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_OH_082216/

Clinton 43 / Trump 39 / Johnson 10, margin = Clinton +4

402 LV, MoE = +/-4.9

The RCP average currently shows, for Ohio:
Clinton +4.8 (2way), Clinton +4.0 (4way): mean = Clinton +4.4

 

This isn't the newest Ohio poll. The latest one shows a 4pt gap. The poll you cited is Clinton largest lead in Ohio in the last month (though they've been stupidly consistent - all showing a 4-6pt Clinton edge).

In the next month we can expect it to tighten. The trends (which aren't just being noticed by me - Silver and other pollsters have noted it) is towards Trump - meaning that Clinton's lead is slipping. And I think you'll see that continue in the next month or two, because Trump lags within his own party. He's pulling about 75-80% of Republicans in most polls I've seen, while Clinton is pulling 85-95% of Democrats. Voters who are upset usually come home, and I expect Trump to gain a few pts in the polls just by getting Republicans to back him.

Late in the game though we can expect another change that will favor Clinton. When the election draws closer third party candidate support usually wanes. Stein supporters are far more likely to switch for Clinton than Trump, and Johnson supporters are slightly more likely (Johnson is probably the first libertarian to draw from the Democrats more than the Republicans).