Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Just as an update, I modified my COVID-19 by country sheet to add a bunch more details per country. Because of this, I've modified the main sheet to just be a dashboard for the biggest problem countries. Here are some things I'm seeing over the past week's worth of data for the biggest hotspot countries:



While the new cases raw #'s are rising across the board, I am seeing the rate at which they are rising slowing down in some of the hardest hit countries (Spain, Italy, France). The numbers today out of France and Spain are particularly positive as they are the first that are < 20% growth rate. It may be an indication that measures taken even before the lockdowns over the weekend have started to take effect.

Italy's rates look like clear evidence that the quarantine is starting to slow the new case count. While on average Italy's case count is still going up, I am hoping that is more related to the 2-14 day incubation period of the virus, and these are largely people who were infected before the lockdown.

On the other hand, the virus spread rates in the US are very troubling. After a couple of days finally < 30%, it shot back up > 38%. Hopefully today was an anomaly, but I think it unlikely to be the case. Possibly it is a result of low testing in the US compared to other countries. I don't think I can stress enough that each country needs to get their new infection rates down down below 10% so we can start seeing a drop in the raw number of new cases and thus deaths. Speaking of which:



These are pretty much bad all around. As @Statistikhengst has mentioned, rates over the globe have passed 4%. It should be noted that China is right at 3.99% mortality rate, which is sure to go over that threshold in the coming days given their decline in new infections. In most every country I am tracking, the average mortality rate is increasing. This is especially prominent in the UK, Spain, and Italy.

Italy is especially troubling. The high death rate compared to other countries is almost certainly due to the overloaded hospitals in northern Italy. Given that their rate of new infections is declining - which I expect their raw numbers of new infections to follow and start coming out lower, I would expect the mortality rate of Italy to go higher in the meantime. I am hoping to see it peak and pull back a bit as new infections are able to be adequately treated once the active case load has dropped. The rates we see it reach may be considered a worst case scenario - we do not want to see any other country reaching those levels.

The USA is the lone exception to the rising mortality rates. I suspect it is related to us lagging in actual tests to confirm people, and us seeing the effects of the explosion of new cases drowning out the deaths which will follow some ~20 days after infection. Obviously I am hoping for the best and that the US will keep the mortality rate low, but based on what I'm seeing everywhere else around the world, I find it unlikely those numbers will hold.

 

Too many posts to read if this has already been added:

 

It appears countries with nationalized health care fared the worst.

 

Thanks for politicising the best, most informative thread I have ever seen on any discussion board, and the most non-partisan thread I have ever seen on PF.
But since you brought it up, it appears a country with nationalised health care fared the best.

 

The abject FAILURE to implement EFFECTIVE measures IMMEDIATELY here in America can be BLAMED on your criminal IMPOTUS because it was his RESPONSIBILITY!

Why do Republicans NEVER hold themselves ACCOUNTABLE for their own failures when they are always the FIRST to point fingers at others?

 

IOW's your criminal IMPOTUS is so INCOMPETENT he can't walk and chew gum at the same time?

 

NO.

 

Good morning, PFers. First, I truly hope that all of you are healthy and well and that your loved ones are as well.

Second, a sad note, which is also an interim report right at the beginning of the day in the USA. The number of COVID-19 confirmed cases has now passed the 200,000 mark and the number of dead has now surpassed 8,000. This is cause to be very, very sober about this.



Here the current stats, lined up against the days leading up to this day since 02-27-2020:



To explain how this curve is truly exponential, I wrote in the OP (you might want to go back and re-read it) that the total of people *officially* reported as infected as of 02-27 would double on 03-15 or 03-16. It doubled on 03-15. I then extrapolated out to shortly before Labor day, based on a doubling every 15 days. At this rate, it will go quicker than this.

I don't think it's necessary to repeat what every health expert, especially the ones who deal with infectious diseases, is/are saying, but I am going to do it, anyway: the disease will likely infect up to 70% of the world's population. Most of us will survive it. A huge number of people will feel almost nothing. Some will get very sick and recover fully and all those who recover will have built an immunity to the virus for the next time around. That is kind of a built-in security mechanism that helps our species to survive calamities. But, a certain percentage will die from this virus, and apparently, very quickly. A number of people have died within 5 days of showing major symptoms, but the average, when you include the days of not feeling the symptoms yet, is circa 15 days. Their deaths are excruciatingly painful, agonizing and horrifying. A number are dying because the local health infrastructure was simply not built to handle so many cases all at once, and so, as in time of war, in a number of areas, triage is being implemented, which means that the limited resources are being allocated to those who have the best chances of survival. Since elderly people and people with a pre-condition, especially ones pertaining to immuno-insufficiency, are especially in danger, we must break the chain of infections among all peoples, all over the place, because that causes the infection curve to flatten and therefore hospitals will not have to treat everyone all at once.

Not only that, what is barely being talked about is the fact that a HUGE number of people will survive the disease this time around but will suffer serious internal damage (lungs, heart, liver, kidneys, pancreas, intestines, take your pick). Doctors of renomee are saying that a huge % of those who are not recovering but have not died look like they are suffering from a mixture between SARS and Stage IV AIDS. This is absolutely horrifying in ways that I don't think anyone can completely comprehend. I certainly can't. When you look at the screenshot of the excel table above (the link to which is in my signature file, btw) you will see that almost 55% of confirmed COVID-cases are still sick to some degree, neither healed nor (thankfully) dead. So, when the storm has passed and left a swath of destruction across the entire planet, on every continent, mostly likely in every single city, town, hamlet, village, you name it, then it could mean that 39% of the entire world will have suffered organ damage and that alone is a catastrophe that causes me to weep innerly. And I have to fear of saying it openly. 39% of 8 Billion = 3 Billion people, that could cause a lot of people to weep openly. If we are truly to be a humane species, then we need to look at all of this.

And should an impending great depression cause the world to go into between 15-25% unemployment, this means that resources to tend to the those who have not really recovered will really be scarce.

So, anything and everything we can do to flatten the curve now is far better than just living as we have always lived.

Plus, just because the death rate among reported cases is 4% is no guarantee that it will stay there. Just 21 days ago (3 weeks to this day), the mortality rate (based on reported cases) was 3.41%. Now, that may not seem like a big difference, but when you are talking hundreds of millions of infected people or quite possibly, 4 to 5 BILLION, then that difference in percentage after the decimal point makes a huge difference. And if it could raise from 3.41% to 4% in these three weeks, what is to keep it from raising to 5% by April or May?

Some have been talking about whether or not the type of health care system for a country is a factor in whether people or dying or not and I say: this is bullshit. It is hitting us fast and furious, literally no one is prepared for this and guaranteed, were what is happening in Italy right now, in this proportion, to be happening in the USA, we in the USA are woefully unprepared and would also be forced to perform triage all over the country. It's not the health care system, but rather, the supplies at hand in order to rush into a crisis area and treat.

And finally, let's not forget that health care workers (doctors, nurses, EMTs, firemen - yes, firemen, hospital personnel, retirement home personnel, in-home care personnel, hospice-care workers, lab-tech workers, etc) are our last line of defense against this virus; they are placing their lives directly on the line for US, for the people who are not in the health care branch that does hands-on care. If you have a friend who is a doctor, give him a Corona-elbowbump today and let him know that you are thankful for him.

On a personal note: my business has come to a stillstand until at least April 19th. I am self-employed. I am healthy, or at least, I think I am healthy. But out of an abundance of caution, I am going into self-quarantine for 3 weeks, which means I won't see my kid for three weeks. But it's better this way. The last 7 years I have saved money for a rainy day. Well, that rainy day has come. I am doing my part to make sure that no one could be infected because of me, in case I am infected but am asymptomatic. I don't want to be part of a chain of infections that may kill an old person or a person with immunodeficiency.

Again, I wish all of you, every single one of you, not matter what political affliation, religion, or creed, that you stay healthy and well.

May Ad-shem be with all of us in these truly uncharted, and frankly, very scary waters.

-Stat

 

This was actually a very sobering post. A post that kind of broke me down and said: "There's no avoiding this thing. It's not a cold. It's a virus, and it's a deadly one." The part that really broke me was the part of our bodies being substantially damaged by this thing should we get it. I mean, I already *have* Asthma. If things get worse for me, I'll become one of those immuno deficient individuals. I've been washing my hands more than 3 times a day now., Now, the car broke down in July of 2018, and me and my grandmother have been stuck in the house ever since. So it's hard to really 'get tested' per se. Should I like call 911 or something? Or my health doctor

 

You have posted a lot of good information. I, for one, am grateful. It is helping to mould my thinking on how to behave. Bravo.

I just wanted to highlight this paragraph from your post because there have been, from the beginning of this thread, people who have tried to trivialise or politicise the thread. Some people have tried to use your stats to score political points regarding different health care systems.

I am glad you have not taken the bait and have just kept it factual and apolitical. Thank you.

 

First, it is very nice to hear from you. Second, use common sense with a tad of caution. I am not feeling great, but exactly at this time of year I get my normal allergies right around 2 or 3 days after the weather suddenly turns warm, which is the case right now. So, at the first signs of discomfort, don't automatically assume COVID-19.

I'm not your doctor, and have no idea whether you live in an urban, suburban or rural area, but I can encourage you, if you are having more than one symptom of the virus to first call your family doctor and ask whether you should visit him. Using 911 just for beginning symptoms is not wise - 911 should only be used in dire emergencies where seconds make a difference and if everyone with slight symptoms starts using 911, it will get clogged up.

I'm not saying that there is no avoiding this thing. People who are great distances from other people and have had no contact with strangers - and their friends have had no contact with strangers - may be completely spared this virus. But especially in the USA where people are extremely mobile, the virus is spreading exponentially fast.

If you have a friend who can drive you to the doctor's office - once you have spoken to him or her on the phone - that would be good.

I truly wish you good health and hope by G-d that you are not infected. I want for no one to get infected. But science and the obvious rising numbers tells us that it is going to happen to many of us. I also wish your Grandmother good health and a very long life.

Best to you,

Stat

 

That's scary. I typically wash my hands three times when I'm making dinner, and that was before COVID-19.

 

For a number of years I have been telling my friends (of all stripes) that when the aliens land and start to eat us alive, we will all taste the same. Well, some of us will be fattier, some will have less gristle, some will have too many bones, some will taste bitter, some will taste sweet... it is of course meant in jest, but....

....the point is that we are all in this together. And maybe for the first time in the entire history of humanity, we all need each other.

It ends up that the aliens look like this:



Retroviruses tend to not react differently to the slight differences in human DNA between our various races, sometimes classified as genetic distance, all of which evolved due to ever so slight geographical differences across this beautiful blue ball upon which we live. Retroviruses trick our immune system into thinking that the virus is not dangerous before it is too late. But not every person's genetic systems are exactly the same. Some people actually have a slight deficiency in their immunosystem that allows it to block the door to a retrovirus. This is why there is a small group of humans who are automatically immune to HIV, likewise SARS and so forth. So, we may after the fact learn that a small group of humans are completely immune to COVID-19.

The point is, yes, we will survive the first wave of COVID-19, but we have no idea how mankind may respond when the second, more virulent wave comes in a number of years on down the road, because viruses mutate and tend to return. That is fact. Example: there is a very small self-enclosed group of, well, essentially, goat herders high up in the mountains in Albania who all tend to live well beyond 100 years of age and they rarely get sick. It may end up that a small group of humans somewhere may end up being the key to this whole thing on down the road. So, we all need to be good to each other. A death in Spain is just as painful for me as a death in the USA, or in Israel, or in Iran, or in China, or in Italy, or in Kenya.....

 

The truth is the truth. Italy fared better than the US, really? Prove it?

 

Prove it!

 

I think its very early to say that we've done better.

 

That is a fascinating observation, Stat.

Living in close proximity to goats, which are free range up in the mountains, could have meant that small children who were susceptible to animal viruses didn't survive long enough to have their own children while those who were not susceptible did pass along their immunity to their children.

Our lives today are such that as small children we rarely come into contact with any free range animals while growing up.

We live in interesting times!

 

8,000 Dead? 4%?

Yikes.

Holy Sheet. Scary.

I just wish that Trump had taken things seriously a Month Ago.

 

Three things:

-one cannot speak in past tense over an event that is unfolding right now. That is illogical.

-as I have clearly indicated, the type of health care system has nothing to do with amount of supplies needed for such an exponentially growing viral outbreak.

-Americans should be, in a way, thankful to see how hard the Italians and Spanish are having to fight and then, prepare earlier. Otherwise, Americans will face exactly the same fate, perhaps far worse because of the longer distances between cities.

So, instead of spreading bullshit and wanting to give a specific health care system the blame for anything, look deep into yourself and realize that that is malarky.

Plus, I call your bullshit with facts. Hard facts.

Which industrialized nation has the lowest amount of deaths per positive cases? Why, that would be Germany, with only 27 dead out of 10,082 cases, or 0.27%. The USA, however, already has 116 deaths out of 6,535 cases, or 1.78%. That 6.6 times higher than Germany. Look:




Germany has universal health care, it has had it since the 1880s and is therefore the oldest continually functioning health care system in the entire world.

So, cut the bullshit about trying to pin a certain type of health-care system to death. That is just plain old ****ing disgusting.

For once in your life, take off your political blinders and realize that this is a HUMAN issue, not a political issue.

Thank you.

 

Sorry, I kind of glanced over this last night, but I concur with you. Multiple mitigations will be necessary, which is why, for instance, in the case of the USA, we need at least 600 million tests for over a number of months. I gave my reasoning for this on a posting yesterday here on this thread.

 

That is the thing about exponential growth.

Every life that you save today is 4 that you saved in just a couple weeks.

 

And therein lies the rub. We cannot know WHO will save when we mitigate, but know that we will most definitely save SOMEONE somewhere along the random butterfly chain.

Well-worded. Thanks to you.

 

I didn't say Italy fared better. Although in the end it might. This isn't over yet.

What I said was that a country with nationalised health care fared the best. And that is true to date, although this isn't over yet. South Korea has (to date) managed this better than any other country, and they have a nationalised health care system, run by the Ministry of Health.

So stop politicising this. You take this as an opportunity to bash nationalised health care, which I find disgusting in addition to being inaccurate. Just stop it.

 

last Friday was 1100 case now its over 6000, just show how many infect out there we haven't test yet.

 

I'm working in a 400 bed hospital near Frankfurt am Main, Germany. In the last two weeks we worked hard to be ready for higher numbers of Corona patients. The normal health business is stopped, only urgent cases are treated and therefore we have a lot of empty beds ready. We have doubled our intermediate care beds and trained our staff for Corona specific care. I assume that all German hospitals are acting similar and the German health care system wants to double its number of intermediate care beds, from 28.000 beds to 56.000.

Additional hospitals are in planning, the city of Berlin will open a Corona hospital with 1000 beds in cooperation with the Bundeswehr, they will use a building in the exhibition grounds.

At this stage we have two Corona patients in my hospital, both infected in Italy.

At least the Corona crisis is not a political issue in Germany, all political parties work together. The German government charters planes to bring back the 100.000 Germans who are stucked somewhere in the world. The government also announced an unlimited loan program to stabilize the economy and the tools which helped Germany not to suffer to badly in the 2008 banking crisis are back, with less bureaucracy. Germany should have reacted earlier but now we're doing the right things.

https://www.businessinsider.de/inte...es-unlimited-loans-covid-19-2020-3/?r=US&IR=T