Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

The Uniklinik auf dem Venusberg in Bonn is doing the same thing.

 

Thank you for all your hard work and thanks for sharing the information.

 

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread rapidly throughout the world. WHO declared the outbreak a global pandemic on March 11, 2020.
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In Iran, the first official announcement of deaths from COVID-19 was made on Feb 19, 2020. As of March 16, 2020, 14 991 people have been infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, and 853 people have died from COVID-19. 4996 people have recovered.
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The economic loss caused by the spread of COVID-19 in Iran coincides with the ever-highest politically induced sanctions against the country. Although various sanctions have been in place for the past four decades, since May, 2019, the unilateral sanctions imposed by the USA against Iran have increased dramatically to an almost total economic lockdown, which includes severe penalties for non-US companies conducting business with Iran. The Iranian health sector, although among the most resilient in the region,
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has been affected as a consequence.
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All aspects of prevention, diagnosis, and treatment are directly and indirectly hampered, and the country is falling short in combating the crisis.
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Lack of medical, pharmaceutical, and laboratory equipment such as protective gowns and necessary medication has been scaling up the burden of the epidemic and the number of casualties. Despite WHO and other international humanitarian organisations dispatching supplies and medical necessities,
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the speed of the outbreak and the detrimental effects of sanctions have resulted reduced access to life-saving medicines and equipment, adding to the health sector's pre-existing requirements for other difficult health conditions.
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It is shameful that besides the lives lost to this deadly virus, extreme sanctions limit access to necessary materials and therefore kill even more Iranian people.
Although sanctions do not seem to be physical warfare weapons, they are just as deadly, if not more so. Jeopardising the health of populations for political ends is not only illegal but also barbaric. We should not let history repeat itself; more than half a million Iraqi children and nearly 40 000 Venezuelans were killed as a result of UN Security Council and US sanctions in 1994 and 2017–18, respectively.
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The global health community should regard these sanctions as war crimes and seek accountability for those who impose them.
Given the COVID-19 pandemic and its alarming outcomes in Iran,
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the international community must be obliged to stand against the sanctions that are hurting millions of Iranians. It is essential for the UN Security Council and the USA to ease, albeit temporarily, the barriers to providing lifesaving medical supplies to Iran. In the future, the global community must anticipate possible impacts of sanctions on humanitarian aid and move to prevent further disasters from happening.
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Viruses do not discriminate, nor should humankind.
We declare no competing interests.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30668-1/fulltext

 

So, earlier today, I posted that we broke the 200,000 mark. This makes the next interim report even more shocking. Just in 10 hours time, we have jumped by +16,000 new COVID-19 cases and worst yet, Italy posted 475 deaths today. That is just unbelievable. Just....



The mortality rate has moved up again, the 4.12%. That is absolutely horrifying.



Italy, Iran, Spain and France have posted the most new deaths today. It seems to know now end. One more thing: the % of recovered is shrinking:



At some point in time, Russia, Turkey, India, Brasil and the Phillipines will start reporting actual cases and deaths and I don't think we will want to see those numbers.

Today is a terrible day for the human species. And it is going to get far worse.

-Stat

 

IMO it's not a political thing here for 97% of us. it's the 3% that wont shut up, and the media giving them a voice that make people think there are more of them than there are.

we have a couple here in this thread for example.

 

Look at Italy on your own chart

 

The US population is 360 million with just over 100 deaths.

 

And? You won't be able to make any comparisons until the pandemic has passed. You do realize that, right?

 

197 deaths for Italy? More like 3,000.

Also, the number of infections in the US is moving at a faster pace than Italy.

 

Huh?

The number of people dying from coronavirus in Italy has risen by 475 in one day to nearly 3,000 - the biggest increase since the outbreak.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51952712

 

Already addressed more than once.
Enough is enough.
Bye bye

 

How will they form over 600 million tests though? Factory duplication is an issue, as is testing the tests to make sure they work(unlike the first batch, which failed.). People want to blame Trump? Okay, fine, blame him but it's not his fault that those technical issues arose, and may continue to arise if we skip steps to get these out quicker.

It's just how business works, which is as apolitical as this deadly virus. The people who are working on these tests and then testing the tests are working as fast and as hard as they can. In their own way, they too are on the front lines.

 

I want to apologize. I wanted this virus to be of minimum impact. I wanted it to not be consequential. I was hoping that it would turn out that we could quickly find a solution to these issues. This virus told us: "No, your lives are going to change. Forever."

We're already at 8,000 cases when I had said I thought 15K would be our upswing. And even when I bumped that up to 30K, I'm no longer confident that's going to be a proper ceiling. Because of how it affects 2-3 people upon contact, the multipler effect is much more deadlier then a common cold or a flu.

Even if we had say a flu pandemic, the rates of both infection and death would be cut by more than half. It's why I'm not sure if we're truly going to be able to flatten the curve, given the way this virus multiplies and spreads.

So it's less about flattening the curve IMO, then it is about assuring that those who don't have it, won't get it. We need that segment of the population in order to beat this thing.

 

I said that we need 600,000,000 tests, not that they are going to happen.

 

The first US-Congressman to contract COVID-19:

Shot:



Chaser:




This is why it is practically impossible to slow down the virus.

 

I appreciate you being willing to follow the data and accept what it's saying - even when it counteracts your initial assumptions.

I think the people who "who don't have it, won't get it" is what we are talking about with "flattening the curve". By starving the virus of new people to infect, it stops spreading as much and life can go back to mostly normal after that happens. You can see this has happened already in South Korea and China:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/

The increase in new cases in the US within the past two days (38%, 42%) is truly scary to me as it is a MUCH HIGHER % new case rate compared to other hotspot countries that have reached the total cases #'s we are at. I can only hope all the measures already taken place in the last week (companies remoting from home, closure of bars / restaurants, sports suspending seasons, closure of schools, etc) will start to show up next week in the form of reduced % new cases, and at some point, a reduced raw # of new cases.

 

Just a few minutes ago I was wondering when we would hear about the first US congressman to test positive.

I give it 3:1 that he contracted it from a trip to Mar a Lago.

 

I used your data to graph several countries from the moment that they hit 1000 cases. This is the line graph that I got.

 

Bunk, Trump did fairly immediately impose China travel restrictions, over Democratic objections. Dr. Anthony Fauci said the test shortage wasn't Trump's fault and that the administration was doing a fairly good job. What do you know that he doesn't?

The US was never going to be the only nation on earth not to get the virus.

 

Italy seems to be BY FAR the hardest hit(and I mean by far.) While the virus's various mutations at the same time are also affecting other age groups, I think it's still safe to hold that the elderly and immune compromised persons are at most risk.

 

So after two interim reports today, the COVID-19 numbers for the end of day GMT +0 on March 18, 2020:



March 18th, 2020 was the second day in a row where the death rate went over and stayed over 4%.

The countries most impacted:



For the 5th day in a row, horrifying new deaths out of Italy (almost exclusively out of N. Italy): +475 dead, +147 dead in Iran, +105 dead in Spain.
The USA jumped over France in the list of total positive cases.
Look at some of the nations at the bottom of the screenshot and see how their new cases are very large numbers relative to their total (Belgium, Malaysia, Canada, Portugal, Australia) - these nations are at the beginning of an exponential curve, where the USA was about 11 days ago.

I cannot explain how or why, but somehow, Germany is managing to save more lives. Germany is consistently posting the least number of new deaths but a huge number of new infections. Surely doctors from elsewhere are asking what the Germans are doing differently from the rest and, at least for now, appears to be working better.

And the total figures, back to 2/27/2020:



With 218,723 confirmed positive cases, that's a +20 thousand jump over yesterday. Overall, on the planet, 978 more people died today from COVID-19, making for 8,943 total deaths. The death rate is 4.09%. That is incredibly, crazy high. Worse yet, the percentage of recovered cases continues to fall, currently at 38.58%, meaning, there are more cases (numerically and percentually) in limbo. A day may come in the near future where just a ton of those people who were hanging in limbo suddenly die, because the disease extracts an inhumanely high toll on the human body.

You will notice that I have used two colors to shade four entries total. The two entries shaded in blue are the first entry and then the entry that showed a rough doubling of the number of positive cases (I extrapolated this out in the OP, feel free to to back and read that). It took 17 days to get from 82,411 cases to a little more than that double of that, 169,632. But if you look at the 100,000 mark and the 200,000 mark (shaded in light peach), it took only 10 days to almost double from 101,906 to 198,178. Based on my first day, the next doubling of 82,411 (164,822, then 329,644) was calculated at 17 days from 03/15 onward, but since we are already at 218,723, the doubling will happen sooner, which means that the exponential curve is arching up more.

I feel the need to point out that, although these are the official numbers, they are artifically low because:
1.) Russia is not reporting any new numbers, but estimates are of at least 3,000 infected in Moscow alone, another 1,000 in Samara, probably 2,000 in St. Petersburg, surely as many in Volgograd (and the suburbs, in all of these cases)
2.) Turkey is not reporting any new numbers.
3.) India is not reporting anything.
4.) Brasil is not reporting anything.

Once they break down and finally tell the truth, since COVID-19 is literally everwhere on the planet, all of these unfortunate numbers are going to make a quantum leap.

Also, Dr. Berx, on TV, warned that the number of infections in the USA will take a sudden sky-high leap "in the next 4-5 days".

Good night.

-Stat

 

I'm going to follow up on the country level stats tonight. I've updated my spreadsheet, again to try and make it easier to read with hotspot countries on the first page ordered by which ones the virus is spreading fastest (raw case count) first. The results today are frankly worse than I could have imagined just 2 days ago:



While Italy's new case % is staying in the < 20% rate, they are still unable to get things down to single digits. Worse, their new case count is on the rise. I am still hoping this may be related primarily to people who were infected before the quarantine, but I am fearful the data is not backing that.

Then you can see the US new cases. I have tried to use averages in the first grid to flatten things out due to disparities over multiple days, but you can see very clearly the US case count is rising at a very alarming rate. 38% yesterday, and 42% today. When you look at the other peers of hotspots compared to the US right now - France, Spain, Germany, that is just extremely bad. The US has today surpassed the number of cases in France. If that rate % does not come down, we will pass Germany and Spain in a matter of days (whose numbers today were also extremely bad - almost 3000 new infection in each country).

Italy's raw death total stands at 2,978. China's death total is 3,237. Italy has had > 300 deaths every day for the past 4 days. That means tomorrow they will surpass China as the country with the most deaths from COVID-19. Note that I don't actually trust China's numbers to be accurate, but they are the only ones we have.

Finally, I just want to point out the trajectory of the United States on its current rate of new infections:



I've made calculations here of the expected number of new infections based on medians and averages of the past 3 days, 7 days, 14 days, and previous 7 days (last week's) rates of new infection cases. The final column is the percentage of the nation that will be infected based on the 30D projection. These results are extremely disturbing as every metric is pointing to over 8% of the population being infected in 30 days if the new case rate does not go down.

Keep in mind I don't know what impacts all of the current changes (school closures, cancelled events, closure of restaurants / bars, many companies working from home, people choosing to self quarantine) will have on the rates. My assumption is these rates will start to go down and be noticeably lower by next week.

I have included a hardcoded 20% extrapolation from today's numbers to show what a "better" case would be - although frankly I do not see 2M people infected after a month as being any kind of good case.

Please, if you are reading this and you have not already done so, make sure you have the means to self quarantine for a minimum of 14 days. Stop going out in public as much as possible, and make sure your family knows to do the same. We are going to see more cases and more deaths, but we can work together to stop the overall spread before it reaches a substantial percent of the population.

 

I don't know. Since the virus is literally everywhere, he could have picked it up anywhere.

But this brings us to an important, very unpleasant, very sad reality: that the chances are very, very high that a candidate or a nominee of either party for any form of high office (Gov, Lt. Gov, State SOS, HOR Rep, Senator, Vice-President, President) will contract the virus in the middle of the campaign season and perhaps die while on the campaign trail. It may end up being a Representative that we haven't heard much about, for instance, a quiet Rep, say, from MO-03, or a senatorial nominee for MA, or (G-d forbid) one of two names on a presidential ticket. It could happen anytime, anywhere. It may happen more than once.

And the thought of this makes me incredibly sad.

 

Good work.

 

You could probably add Egypt and Iran to that list as well. I've read some articles about both of them under reporting, although in Iran I'm not so sure that is because they lack the means to properly report or are actively trying to avoid reporting a higher #.