A hypothetical weather forecast for 2050 is coming true next week

Where are we feeling the effects?

 

Yeah no single scientist has ever been able to change human understanding in opposition to the general consensus among scientists.

 

The effect we've seen from CO2 is a massive greening of the planet.

 

We've seen a lot more than that. Are you living in de Nile?

 

Changes such as the solar cycle take time to be felt.

Plus, it will be felt in a slightly higher rate of increase in global average temp.

 

It's more like social and political vested interests spread misconceptions that help with their personal goals.

So, we got the cigarette companies pitching that tobacco products are harmless.

Now, we see fossil fuel interests, including in congress.

And, our population grows more ready to believe social media, as the general tenor is one of increasing disrespect for science.

 

Nope. I often laugh at how people seem to believe that the Earth is static and should never change. Even those that "claim" to believe in science.

Want proof? Here are some great pictures that show exactly that.







Now I am sure that everybody recognizes these. These are images like a great many others shown over the last 40 years or so. Along with videos like this.



And I laugh, because I bet less than 10% would look at that and think "That is a giant lie"!

That is the level that most really "know science". Spoon fed to them by talking heads, and stripped of all actual context. Like the constant repeating of CO2 levels of Venus as being the cause of the high temperatures. Yet, never once discussing the insane atmospheric pressure. The temperature would be insanely hot at those pressures, no matter what gas the atmosphere was composed of. And I have yet to see anybody try to explain how a sub-fractional change in a gas concentration would result in a massive change in atmospheric pressure.

 

Which always happens. The miles thick carbon layers were formed during the appropriately named "Carboniferous Period". Where CO2 levels reached as high as 700 ppm.

And that period was in many ways the peak of biodiversity and the amount of biotic life on the planet has yet to be matched.

And the last time it was this high was the end of the Pliocene. When sea levels were 25 meters higher than they are today. No Arctic Ice Cap, Palm Trees in Alaska, crocodiles living in Central and even Northern Europe.

 

No, you really should listen to science. After all, ALL those events you brag about knowing were brought to you by science. And, they are ALL part of understanding where we are now and where we are headed.

The real issue with climate comes when the change is fast enough that it is really hard/expensive for humans to keep up. And, that rate of change is what science shows us is happening today. Plus, there are solid reasons to believe that climate change will speed up.

 

I am well aware of that.

However, all this ranting about "climate change" is more akin to religion than science. That is why trying to have a rational discussion with one is like talking to a Creationist.

 

My husband is a well respected member of the hurricane community. One of his mentors, Dr. William Gray, knew it was bunk and they talked about it all the time. My husband was at the National Hurricane Conference when Judith Curry announced with authority that global warming would have a dramatic impact, for the negative, in the next decade. She has long since recanted and now actively speaks against the so called science.

 

If you had ANY science on your side, I don't believe you would be complaining about religion.

 

Curry's position is not nearly so radical as that.

She points out that Earth is warming. NOBODY doubts that.

She just doesn't think the cause is quite so squarely on human behavior, that humans cause less of the warming than the majority of scientists find to be the case.

Her direction would be for there to be far more effort in taking steps to protect ourselves from the warming that is coming.

Of course, we aren't even doing THAT.

 

Yes, the planet is warming, because we are still coming out of an ice age. That doesn’t happen in 100 years. In human terms, it takes forever.

DeSantis, for all his fault, is taking shore erosion seriously.

What lefties want is for me to start trading money for carbon credits. This fixes nothing.

We’ve done quite a bit of driving around the country in the last four years. We’ve driven through 10 states. I see wind farms that go on for miles, I see solar panels, I see these electric power stations everywhere.

Taxes won’t fix it, but look around. Things are happening.

 

I love the fact that every year for the last 2 decades, they have been saying that the "next year" would be the worst season for hurricanes ever. And for the last 2 decades, it has annoyingly well below average for the number and intensity of storms. Almost as if, the actual weather does not care what the "experts" say.

That is why myself and others keep challenging people to go back 30-40 years, and find actual accurate "forecasts" and see how they match the reality. And unless one finds one that was at a later date heavily changed, nobody has yet to ever find one.

Myself, I never look at such things as a short term climate change. I recognize that climate and the earth is a dynamic place, and always changing. And most people have little to no concept of what that really means. I used to collect palm tree fossils in Idaho, a place that can not support palm trees now outside of a house or greenhouse. I have walked in the calderas of the old "Yellowstone Eruptions", and see where it has been, and have fun watching how the continents are moving and seeing where it will be in the future. I have hiked in the forests of Panama, and collected marine fossils high up in the mountains, and even some at over a mile high altitudes in West Texas. Even been to Carlsbad Caverns, almost a mile in altitude and carved out of ancient marine limestone.

Yet, people tend to have a fixed and static image of the planet, and behave as if it has always been as it is now, and always will be. That is why I love Nick Zentner, who is actually a rarity in Academia. He teaches at Central Washington University, and has a long running series of free lectures he gives to any who want to attend. He even allows just anybody to sit in his classroom lectures, students or not. Breaking down a lot of things to just people, explaining how their state is not quite what they think.

http://www.nickzentner.com/downtown-geology-lectures

Oh, and the reason why I laugh at the contemporary image people have of the Chicxlub Impact, is that they always try to place it as if the impact happened today. Look at all of the images I posted, and even the "scientific video", which tries to show the impact. Almost every single one of them is dead wrong. The impact did not take place on the hook of Mexico. The tsunami from it did not obliterate Cuba and Louisiana. No dinosaurs saw it impacting as is commonly seen.



Welcome to Earth, 65 MYA. With what the area looked like when the impact happened. Want a bigger image of the whole Earth?



Quite different than most people think of things as being (and about 20 years old and the current understanding is even more different). Australia is still damned close to Antarctica. Asia and Europe are still two different continents, separated by the West Siberian Basin and the Peritethis Ocean. No ice caps, no Florida, The "Gulf Coast" seen is not Louisiana, that is actually up somewhere in roughly Arkansas. The giant "continent" East of Madagascar? That's India.

That is the world I believe in. One that has always changed, and always will change. And in reality, an Earth where permanent polar ice caps are actually an aberration and only existed very recently.

 

Good lord. Do you know of any government supported carbon credit direction?

Yes, clean energy is growing at the same rate as electricity demand is growing in the USA. We even have Iowa, with the largest source of electric generation being wind.

But, that isn't a significant fraction of total US electricity demand.

The rest of what is happening is that natural gas is taking over for coal. That's a BIG improvement, since coal is just plain horrible. But, natural gas isn't some big final success. We'll still see carbon production increase as we mine carbon from centuries old deposits and spew it directly into the atmosphere.

As for preparing for the future, I have no idea what DeSantis is doing. Is he trying to save the city of Miami beach?

I'd more likely point to NOLA. We know how expensive the last fiasco was there. And that city has long been receding into the Gulf at 1/2 inch per year. Also, one could scout out the cost of the Chesapeake Bau master plan for rising sea. Or, maybe what the deal is going to be with NYC.

 

Spoken like a "true believer".

No, the simple fact is I bring up hard science constantly. You simply ignore it because you can not refute it so just point back endlessly at "consensus". As if that explains everything.

No different than a Muskite pointing at the "White Paper", or a Creationist pointing to the Bible.

Hell, you still point at the US as being the biggest problem. Even though its amount of Greenhouse gasses has been declining for decades. And China emits over twice as many, and is rising. That level of denial is only seen in the Climate Scare people and Fundamentalists.

 

Maybe people should move to places that aren’t below sea level.

The more technologically advanced we get, the more boastful we get about our ability to control nature. The earth laughs at your naïveté.


Ps. Every lefty on this forum wants a carbon credit tax exchange something.

 

You mean like the Proto-Indians that used to live on the Pacific Coast? Or those that used to live in Doggerland?



Welcome to North-Western Europe, just a blink of the eye ago really. Only around 6-8 kya. Where you could walk from France to Ireland.

And like off the California coast, they have found what appear to be settlements in ancient sea floors. And as the sea levels rose, they moved. Heck, Scotland still has the scars all over it from the ice sheets during this time.

One of the funniest things I saw when I worked in Baghdad by the bay was a "historical sign", that actually discussed what the San Francisco Bay must have looked like when the Indians first arrived. I actually stood there and laughed at the idiocy, as there was no "San Francisco Bay" at that point. Just a low valley, the coast itself was at the Farallon Islands, now over 20 miles offshore.

 

Yes - that IS one of the options.

And, that might work for NOLA, though we know it is hugely expensive.

However, our DoD notes that people movement is a national security risk. You have to remember that other people are like us - they HATE it when people move towards them.

Your assumption about carbon credit whatever whatever is nonsense.

As for running over nature like it is light weight road kill, that certainly is nothing new to us.

 

This last 200-300 or so year period has to be the most sedentary humans have ever been in their entire existence.

When the earth starts being inhospitable, we get out of its way. Full stop.

When did democrats stop spewing about carbon credit swap tax?

 

More than that, as even in that time period most people tended to do all they could to move away from others. The entire expansion in North America is based on that very idea. People getting tired of living in the "big cities" like the shopping 12,000 of Colonial New York and moving even more remotely. Getting their own land, homesteading away from others. Today, people migrate to the big cities, and simply do not want to move.

Myself, I see much of these complaints about people moving as nonsensical. Does not matter if they want to move or not, they have to. Ancient civilizations gave up entire cities to the oceans, they had no more choice about it than we do today. New Orleans, parts of New York, Venice, all of those will someday be under water again. As they have been in the past. And there is not a damned thing that can be done about it.

New Orleans and Venice are even worse, as they are not even on bedrock. They are literally built on river silt, and when the rivers were channeled the silt deposits stopped and they started sinking. And they will continue to sink, so to me complaining about it is futile.



The best thing they could have done after Katrina would have been to condemn large portions of that city and relocated it. Either that, or repeated what was done in Seattle 150 years ago and raised the ground level. Most have no idea that the "surface" of Seattle today is artificial. After decades of flooding the inhabitants literally raised the ground from 3 to 10 meters. That is why much of the old downtown area today was originally the second floor of the buildings. And there is an extensive "Underground Seattle", which was the original ground level. Save the historical areas, but most of the population centers should have never been allowed back in. And it is only a matter of time until it is repeated.

 

My husband worships Homer, so he appreciated the giggle.

So, I live on an existing swamp, The Everglades. We are pondering a move. Our comfort level is mankind’s biggest enemy. We don’t want to build up new areas, we want to spend billions propping up places that nature will reclaim soon, because it’s hard to change. It’s maddening.

If we get slammed back into the dark age, it will be Africa and South America doing the laughing. They won’t even notice.

 

If anybody studies anthropology, humans for their entire existence were migratory, until the last few hundred years. And once again, now most are settled into cities and try to behave like that is "normal", and that they had always been that way. When in fact, that was the aberration of our history. Especially in the last 100 years, when death by human caused events finally passed deaths by disease. And overpopulation is starting to become our largest challenge.

And I find it ironic, as this is also the year that the movie "Soylent Green" was set in. Where at the end overpopulation became such an issue that people started to eat people.



Me, I mostly just laugh. The "Global Warming" are more conservative than cats are. They believe that it is entirely caused like humans just as a Young Earth Creationist believes the planet is only around 6,000 years old. You can point out the truth as is seen in geology, and they still deny it ever happened before, and it is a continuation of a process that has not ended in over 10,000 years. And laughingly set a "benchmark" of what they claim to be the "normal" for the planet at the dawn of when scientific instruments were finally invented. Right in what is the coldest period that we have had in over 10,000 years. In what we call the "Little Ice Age".

To me, that is like placing the thermometer inside the refrigerator, then insisting that is the normal temperature for your house.