Does the cost of the war in Ukraine exceed the benefits?

Dude trying to take the Crimea from Russia has about a 75% chance of Triggering WWIII and nuclear war.

 

Wuuuuuut? Why, if Russia is sent home, would Crimea be depopulated? I know history as well as you do, so why do want base your position on ancient history when, at the time Putin decreed Crimea part of Russia, Crimea belonged to Ukraine and had since the Soviet Union failed. What happened before that is irrelevant. Putin TOOK Crimea from Ukraine, got away with it for almost no cost and now he's back for more. IF, Ukraine allows Putin to again annex it's North-East boarder now and allows Russia to go home and lick it's wounds. It's reasonable for Ukraine to believe that Russia will be back, with a vengeance, to take everything that's left.

 

I don't think so, and neither do most NATO Nations ... dude. It's the consensus of NATO that continued appeasement of Russian aggression is what could, very well, trigger WAR 3. Which is why some NATO Nations are preparing to send troops to Ukraine to help them. With or without U.S. Putin is not going to win this Ukrainian war without a serious fight.

 

Well if Putin has not learned his lesson by now, I'm not sure at what point you think he will. Since we agree pretty much on how this war is going to end, what lesson do you think Putin will take from that? I suspect he'll consider that he was right all along, and that Russia won the war. I also think he will consider the West as the real, true enemy and it makes sense to ally with China for military security and the BRICs nations for economic security. Instead of a world dominated by Western liberal democracies that we envisioned in 1991, we're going to have a world in which the majority of the population, manufacturing, and economic power will belong to a coalition of oligarchies and dictatorships that at best do not trust us and at worst hate us and want to bring down our remaining economic power we exercise through the global financial system.

Yes we sure taught that Putin a lesson, dern tootin.

 

I've seen this comment many times that people who don't support the US involvement in the Ukrainian conflict are "pro Russian and pro Putin." From the leftiods I dismiss that since they are ultimately insincere and gaslighting anyway, but the people on the right who make that accusation, such as yourself, should explain more clearly what you mean. Please explain why the US staying out of a conflict between two of the most corrupt oligarchies on earth makes one "pro Russian and pro Putin?"

 

I was suspicious of Putin as soon as he took control of Russia. He was a ex KBG agent. What could go wrong?

He might have pursued having good relations with the West, but he took Crimea instead. He might have stayed in office for six to ten years, but instead he became a dictator who kills his political opponents if they are living in or out of the country. He takes innocent hostages whom he holds them for ransom to exchange for delightful people like international arms dealers.

You and others might see “a kinder but gentler Putin,” but like John McCain, I see an ex KBG agent who has nothing but enhance that impression.

 

The people who think it's okay for Putin to take the Ukraine without a fight also think that Putin will be satisfied after he takes that country. What will you do if he goes after Poland or any of the other countries that used to be occupied in the old Soviet Union - Eastern European block? Do you let him take those countries as well? When is enough, enough? It almost sounds like Biden, when he said it was okay for Putin to have "a little invasion in Ukraine, just not a big one." Nonsense.

Yea, I know, you think that Putin will satisfied. I don't think that he will be happy until he's reconstructed the Soviet Union with its satellite states. After that, it will be just like it was before the Soviet Union fell. I've seen nothing in his demeanor that he is a "kinder and gentler Putin." Putin is a cold blooded killer and an international gangster.

 

Clinton left him with no other choice. We chose to pursue cold war ad infinitum. Not Putin. I'm pretty sure Putin sees himself as a Russia first kind of guy, to wit a Russian Patriot. I think he finds himself stuck in alliances that were his second choice. He sees himself stuck as the smallest population wise of the big four with an army with an at best antiquated tactical doctrine ill suited to modern war And the only country in the world aging faster than his own is Japan. In his mind his beloved Russia is all but doomed. China covets the Russian Maritime provinces. The west keeps moving further east and squeezes Russia tighter and tighter and time is against him. If Russia is to survive as a viable country absent an alliance with the West he has to strike now in order to stop NATO's eastern advances. That is the strategic imperative he is looking at. Note that is what I believe he is thinking.

Note this has nothing to do with whether or not I think Putin is good or evil. It is just trying to understand the world from his perspective. Note as it stands right now I don't think there are very many people you could call good in any sense of the word in charge of much of anything anywhere in the world. At the moment I suspect we are within a decade of either the second coming or a nuclear exchange or both. We have people in positions of authority in this country right now who think a few billion dead human beings would be a nice start.

 

If I were Putin, I would much more concerned about what the radical Muslins would like to do to Russia than what the West is doing. The attack in the Moscow theater was the latest example.

I've read this crap about how mistreated the Russians since I was high school. I'm not buying it. Yes, they have been invaded from the west at least since the days of Napoleon. I get that, but they should note how things were when Yelson was in power. Putin didn't. It's just mother Russia, bigger expanding Russia and one dictatorship after another threatening its neighbors and beyond with nuclear weapons.

 

Because the people that live there are and have been Russians for more than a hundred years. I was part of Russia before Stalin decreed it a part of the Ukraine

 

The Crazy Muslims were who Putin wanted to ally against. This has nothing to do with Napoleon. Unlike the fact that much of Chinese foreign policy is dictated by their reaction to the Boxer Rebellion. What is happening vis a vis Russia and the Ukraine is because of Putins view of Russia's current strategic weakness.

 

Putin would be a hell of lot better off cultivating good relations with the west than expanding Mother Russia to include the Ukraine. He should be worried about where his economy is going and how many of his young men he's killing in a useless war. When was the last time a western democracy actively invaded Russia? The invaders were imperialists, Napoleon, Germany under the Kaiser and Hitler.

What are Putin's "current strategic weaknesses?" His main problems are crazy Muslins, especially ones with atomic weapons, which is a real threat, and the problems he's created for himself by attacking his neighbors and taking western hostages for ransom.

 

That's why he tried to ally back in the nineties. We told him no. You can bitch all day long about what Putin is doing but if you are not going to invest at least a bit of time in to understanding why he is doing it then you aren't going to be able to come up with a workable solution and believe me war eternal is not a workable solution. And please our current state department has it's head jammed so far up it's back side it couldn't see daylight through a telescope focused on the sun.

 

Yes and NATO's track record on about anything is pretty damn close to zero. So we get a bunch more people killed because of a conflict that never had to be in the first place. And you are good with that. And by the way yes France and some other NATO idiots are rattling sabers with armies that are almost entirely designed for a defensive war against Russian and as such they can't maintain much more than a handful of combat brigades between them much more than a few miles beyond there borders.

 

Yes, I've educated myself. I've watched Putin for almost 30 years. As a dictator, he has spent his time in power killing his political rivals, and acting like an "anal opening" on the world stage. He's got too much making up to do to have people, with a lick of sense, trust him. He's a killer, and like a dog rabies, his mental illness is incurable.

 

The truth is that Ukraine has never been of any importance to the United States at all. Before all this big stink got started in 2014, we never paid any attention to Ukraine at all. It was about of as much importance to us as Romania. What do we need Romania or Ukraine for? Nothing!

 

I agree except for your second sentence. The problem, however, is that it is none our business. Deciding to play the role of planetary police force has been a monumental mistake for the U.S. Want effective international relations? Watch China.

 

Crimea has been part of Ukraine for 60 years, when the Persidium transfered it to Ukraine. The people that live there have been Ukrainians for 60 years. Most people that thought they were Russian are dead.

 

I think Putin started out with the goal of recreating the Soviet Union, now he just wants to save face, keep his job and ... stay alive.

NATO views Ukraine as a buffer zone between itself and Putin. With or without U.S. they plan to defend Ukraine from a Russian takeover. Since U.S. is part of NATO we are working with our NATO allies to defeat Russian aggression.

 

Not only did you not answer my question, you proceeded to do quite a bit of mindreading to make up a position for me that's absurd, in order to "win" and argument with yourself by proscribing motives and ideas that I don't share. So I'll try asking the question again and see if you can answer it with a bit more honesty than you displayed in your most recent reply, so, "please explain why the US staying out of a conflict between two of the most corrupt oligarchies on earth makes one "pro Russian and pro Putin?"

 

As a NATO ally it AbsaByGodLutely IS our business.

Actually it is why the U.S. IS the preeminent World Power and Economy.

Look closer, China is a failing State.

 

I never said you were pro Russian or pro Putin. The relevant question is, what is better for The United States? If we choose to ignore Putin, and he takes Ukraine are we assured that he will be satisfied and will not go any further? If he does go further, should we be getting involved then? If he succeeds in retaking Poland and the rest of the former Soviet Eastern block, should that be a concern?

If not, then we shouldn’t be concerned with China’s, Iran’s and North Korea’s ambitions. A radical libertarian will tell you that we should not be concerned about those issues until the barbarians are at our gates. Even then, if you don’t feel like defending the country, welcome them in. But rest assured that your libertarian way of life will not continue under communism, radical Islam or Putinism, whatever that turns out to be.

You seem to believe that Putin will be satisfied after he takes Ukraine. He will no longer threaten his neighbors. I tend to doubt that, but I’m not in his head, and may I be so bold to say, neither are you.

Now if that answer is not good enough, too bad. If it isn’t, I have to conclude that your goal is to browbeat me into accepting you position with no reservations. If your position is neo isolationism, I am not going to agree with you.

 

I have not even argued my position yet, let alone try "to browbeat" you into accepting it. I simply asked why "the US staying out of a conflict between two of the most corrupt oligarchies on earth makes one "pro Russian and pro Putin?"

Once again, you did not answer that question, you once again ignored that question to mindread not only me, but Putin. If you don't want to answer the question, fine. You can simply ignore my posts, but I honestly didn't expect it to be that difficult, but I suppose I should have, as I've asked that same question before on this forum and gotten similar obfuscation.

 

I can’t answer the question. We live on different planets on this issue. I’ve tried my best and flunked in your opinion.

I guess you have to like a regime to render help to it. The issue, will Putin stop after he takes the Ukraine? I guess you think he will, or you don’t care.

 

So you accuse others of being "pro Russian and pro Putin" but you can't explain why.

Interesting.

I don't know about different planets part, but I do think you are free with accusations that you, by your own admission, cannot defend.