Poll: 25 percent of Sanders voters would shun Clinton (not fake)

Poll: 25 percent of Sanders voters would shun Clinton

This a real poll (McClatchy), not the fake aol poll making the rounds.

Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article70202867.html#storylink=cpy

I am posting this as a data point to support the idea that there is a terminal bifurcation in the Democratic Party - no less so than in the GOP.

 

That's not as large as the slice of Hillary supporters who said they wouldn't vote for Obama, but they did.

Traditionally, voters who say they won't vote for their non-preferred candidate do so anyway. That's true on both sides.

On the other hand, the Democrats aren't about to nominate someone who attacks the party itself, unlike the GOP. I'm more inclined to believe the Trump supporters who insist that they really won't support the GOP if Trump isn't the nominee. I could be wrong there of course - they might come back to the fold with their tail between their legs to stop a Democrat getting in.

 

Perhaps, but Quinnipiac had this: Question 9. Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not vote for in the
presidential election: Clinton, Cruz, Kasich, Sanders, or Trump? (Totals may add up to
more than 100% because multiple responses were allowed)

…………Tot…Rep..Dem..Ind
Clinton 43% 80% 06% 46%
Cruz……33% 11% 54% 32%
Kasich…14% 08% 21% 09%
Sanders.27% 58% 02% 19%
Trump….54% 17% 87% 54%

https://www.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us03232016_Umk53pw.pdf

According to Quinnipiac only 6% of self identified Democrats stated they would not vote for Clinton. So why the discrepancy? 25% of Sander voters vs. 6% of the total Democratic base vote. Perhaps we should understand up to this point Sanders has received 42% of the total Democratic vote. That 42% is Sander supporters. 25% of that boils down to 10.5% of the total Democratic vote. Thus we still have a 10.5% vs. 6% discrepancy. But how many of Sanders supporters are independents or independents lean Democrat? Perhaps there is no discrepancy due to some of Sanders supporters identifying themselves as independents and not Democrats to Quinnipiac.

But there still is a big difference between the 17% of Republicans who state they will never vote for Trump and the 6% of Democrats who say the same about Clinton. Then look at the independents will not vote for numbers. 46% for Clinton and 54% for Trump. If you go to question 3 in the above poll you will find Trump getting 80% of the GOP vote vs. Clinton getting 88% of the Democratic vote. That could be a big deal regardless of what independents do as the Democrats have the larger base vote.

 

This assumes no Independent runs by Trump/Sanders. Independent campines will solidify the 'Our Guy or Bust' vote and pull support from the nominees.

 

Sanders won't run independent. Most of his supporters would drop him like a hot potato. Most of his supporters are primarily attached to the party, and within the Democratic base at least, Hillary is generally liked. I doubt that Trump would run independent either, but you never know with Trump, and his supporters already have a defiant attitude toward the GOP.

 

Another way of looking at this is that Democrats do not win elections based on self-identified Democrats alone. They need the additional votes of independents and progressives (who have have had a tendentious relationship with Democrats in the post-Clinton era).

The polling results of self-identified Democrats will look very different than the polling results of self-identified progressives. Historically, Democrats have taken the votes of progressives for granted - and with some justification.

The prayer that the Democrats recite before bed goes something like "progressives will always turn to Democrats, because they have no alternative. They always have and they always will. Amen.'

The past repeats until it stops repeating. People only remember that it repeats, and are loathe to believe that it ever changes. They forget that history occasionally stops dead in its tracks, and heads in another direction.

 

At this point Sanders is running against Clinton.

Obviously, Sanders supporters will have a much easier choice when Clinton is the nominee and Sanders is supporting her.

As Rush Limbaugh had noted, establishment Republicans will vote for Clinton over Trump or Cruz. Obviously, most Sanders supporters will.

Pretending that the Democratic party is as shattered as the GOP is delusional.

 

a few months of listening to Trump, they will change their minds and do everything in the power to keep his ass out of the White House

 

I think voters are often more motivated to vote against a candidate than for a candidate. There is a perception among young leftists that Trump is racist and misogynist, and those are about the two worst things they can think of. Meanwhile, Hillary is female with an image of having supported women and minorities in the past.

So, I think your view is very likely right.

 

Perhaps you are correct. It is not for me or even you to say. The issue will be decided at the polls.

However, it is a historical fact that neither the GOP or the Dems are majority parties. They depend on support from independents. Considering the increasing intensity of the character defamation directed at Sanders supporters, the Democrats seemed to have decided to go for broke. Whether they can come back from this level of nastiness is questionable.

From your perspective, this may seem like fun and games and we will all make nice afterwards. From my perspective, the answer is not only no, but hell no.

In a very important sense, the democratic divide is actually worse than the GOP. The fury in the GOP is largely directed against Trump. In the Democratic Party, the rancor is mostly directed against Sanders' supporters, not Sanders himself. This is huge difference.

 

totally.

most voters will simply vote AGAINST Trump.

 

That's true. What follows exactly?

I don't think that is true at all. Some Dems have certainly gotten very nasty, but most Dems like both candidates and wish they would both go back to being nice to each other.

Some people get really nasty in politics. Every party has plenty of jerks. I'm not seeing any threat to the party.

 

At this point in time I am assuming it is Trump vs. Clinton in November. I think Trump will solidify his front running status in the remaining Primaries in April. You have New York 95 delegates, Connecticut 28, Delaware 16, Maryland 38, Pennsylvania 71 and Rhode Island 19, a total of 267 delegates. Trump leads in each of those states with 50% plus. I expect him to pull in an additional 200 delegates between now and the end of the month which would put him at 956 or there about. May has an additional 199 and June 303. To get the nomination Trump would need 280 more out of that 502 delegates available in the last two months to secure the nomination. I say that is doable, although I would not guarantee it. What I am saying is I think Trump will be the GOP nominee.

Sanders on the other had may be an independent, independent in name only. But he has been so loyal to the Democratic Party that only one senator has voted the Democratic Party line more than Sanders. I highly doubt Sanders would ever run as an independent. He'll campaign for Clinton mainly because he doesn't want to see Trump become president.

Trump on the other hand if for some reason he doesn't secure the GOP nomination, now he would run as an independent. If he did according to Rasmussen, Trump would get 33% of the total Republican vote. An independent run by Trump guarantees another Clinton presidency. Best if the Republican Party just goes with Trump as their nominee and hope and pray for the best.

 

Two-thirds of independents view Trump unfavorably.

Perhaps, it is not for me or even you to say, but I am unaware of much "rancor directed at Sanders supporters" by other Democrats.

 

The Democrats are definitely doing better with independents so far.

There isn't much. A minority of hard-core Clinton supporters are being jerks, which is politics as usual.

 

Well Trump would succeed in blowing up the GOP under such a scenario. Which is fine by me.

What is not fine, however, is the triumph of the Clintonocrat wing. There has to be an actual reason to be a Democrat, and the lesser of two evils no longer carries the day. If HRC wins, my chief objective would be blowing up the Democratic party. There would have to be a strong movement (between the end of the conventions and the general election) to form a consensus around a third party alternative to Clinton corporatism.

I'm not sure this is doable. It may be an even longer shot than a Sanders presidency, but I feel morally bound to try. The destruction of the the Clintonocrats is a moral imperative that overides consideration of party loyalty. I say this as a 40 year labor Democrat, btw.

 

Am I following you correctly that you don't want to blow up the Democratic party until there's consensus around a third party alternative?

 

Tactically, that's advisable. It may or may not be politically feasible.

 

Nope. They will will not be voting against Trump they will be
voting against the Boogie Man Trump that the media creates
and says they should shun and vote against.

 

No, they'll be voting against Trump. Whether or not they understand Trump or are wildly misguided about him, it is him that they are going to vote against.

Unless Trump can turn public perception around, then regardless of whether that perception is accurate or not, he's going to lose the election.

 

I can only speak for myself, but out of the five possible candidates my choice right now is Senator Sanders. However I would vote for Mr. Trump over Hillary. I would also vote for Governor Kasich over her. The only way I would support Clinton is if she ran against Cruz.

 

How did you wind up with that ordering? (If it isn't too complicated to explain).

 

The ultimate nightmare scenario.

 

Yeah, most of Trump supporters are loyal to the man and not the party. They will stick with him if he is the GOP nominee or runs as an independent. They do not care if the Republican Party goes up in flames. Clinton was decided on as the Democratic nominee back just before the election of 2012. Anyone who follows politics should have known she was the 2016 nominee back then. She even had the support of 10 super delegates before the year turned to 2013.

Although the general electorate dislikes and does not trust Clinton, they dislike and distrust Trump even more. I'll be voting for Libertarian Gary Johnson as I'll not have a hand in helping either Trump or Clinton gain the oval office. As for a third party candidate, there are none out there. Clinton will be the next president because of Donald Trump.

 

If it comes down to Clinton vs. Cruz in November, I would be very surprised if Bernie supporters didn't hold their noses and vote for Clinton.