Ukraine’s army is running out of men to recruit, and time to win

Not that I've been saying this for a while...but I've been saying this for a while.

Ukraine’s army is running out of men to recruit, and time to win


The war in Ukraine is now one of attrition, fought on terms that increasingly favour Moscow. Kyiv has dealt admirably with shortages of Western equipment so far, but a shortage of manpower – which it is already having to confront – may prove fatal.

Broadly speaking, Kyiv’s highly anticipated counter-offensive has gathered much-needed momentum in recent weeks, with hard-fought gains around the strategically important village of Robotyne. If this falls, the road to the Azov sea will be in sight. If Ukrainian forces can reach the coast, they will split the land-bridge connecting Russia with Crimea, potentially routing Moscow’s troops.

Ukraine’s forces, however, are not just fighting massed defences and artillery fire. They are also fighting against time. Having first penetrated the formidable Russian minefields four weeks ago, Kyiv is desperate to exploit its early successes before mounting casualties and autumn rains destroy its fighting capability.



As I've been saying all along, this was always Russia's war to lose. Either Russia just gives up for some mysterious reason, or NATO takes a much more "active" role in this. Meanwhile, the carnage continues.

 

It's only a matter of time before Ukraine collapses to the forces of attrition.

That isn't pro-Russian. It's just reality.

 

I've discovered that reality is not popular on this forum.

 

The Leftists don't like it when you don't go along with their propaganda. That makes you an enemy, in their minds.

 

They haven't even reached Russia's first line of defense....they can't even get through the 'grey zone'. All western media is trash....repeating these lies.

The article should tell the truth and read as such: ukie can't get even to the first line of defense; the Sea of Azov will never been reached; 40,000 new graves have been filled since the counteroffensive began. absolute bust. NATO equipment burns just like everything else.

 

That's for sure, but the widening disparity between their curated beliefs and reality make it more and more difficult to have anything like a rational discussion on politics and public policy issues. I joined this forum to have discussions about those issues and enjoyed the differing arguments from people with different positions than mine. But now, the premises behind their positions is so divorced from reality that it makes it more and more difficult to discuss anything.

 

Well they may not be there yet, but I'm surprised that this article was printed at all without a warning that "This article contains Russian propaganda and if you read it you're a lapdog of POOTIN."

 

Seriously, the whole thing is tragic. And since it bares repeating: Putin's war, yes. But the idea that the international community could 'uphold its norms' if a major power didn't go along, is proving faulty. There wasn't positive relations between Europe and Eurasia to begin with, so what did Russia lose, really?

The Ukrainians should have been looking for a peaceful solution ASAP(that's what the Fins did in the Winter War. They held the Soviets off long enough for acceptable peace terms.), NATO should have been backing said negotiations.

Instead, Biden thought he's 'fighting for democracy'. Just another of the many things our commander in chief has gotten wrong.

 

Well it was obvious from the beginning that the war wasn't winnable as far as the stated goals goes that is. Ukraine was never going to be able to kick Russia back to the pre-war borders and it sure wasn't going to retake Crimea. If the West had never interfered this would have been over long ago.

 

Even if and when Russia finally wins this war, it will be a major loss for Russia and especially for Putin. It showed just how underpowered Russia is as compared to what had been its image.

The great super power, second most powerful nation on earth, is now one that takes a long time just to win a border dispute with a neighbour.

 

This is just a reiteration of what we already knew about prewar population comparisons and nothing really new other than the estimated killed/wounded to date.

In any case Ukraine is more than capable of making this war last a very very long time. the OP source estimates only 1.8 million men for Ukraine out of a population of 38 million currently there.

For comparison, the Confederacy only had a 6 million(white) prewar population and was at a similar disadvantage vs the Union. They ended a 4 year war with 258,000 or so dead and a total of about 1.1 million total fought.

If 1.1 million men can fight out of a population of 6 million total then clearly the OP sources estimate of 1.8 out of 38 million is way, way off.

You throw in other factors like:

1) women can fight in Ukraines army
2) Medical technology is a million times better than it was during the Civil War allowing wounded soldiers to return to the field at greater numbers and much faster
3) Foreigners are continuing to help

And what you have here is the conclusion I have reached which is: not yet a problem. Nowhere even close.

Unless this lasts 10 years, the only way this ends with a Ukrainian defeat is if the West stops supplying Ukraine or Ukraines will to fight simply evaporates. Running out of soldiers? Lol. No.

 

Well that's good for us. We can put the Russian threat into a more realistic context. Other than their nuclear arsenal, their hacking abilities are a bigger threat to us than Ground Forces.

 

Bloody Bribed Biden's next move to avoid losing his second war in 3 years will be to directly involve US troops.

https://www.newsweek.com › us-intelligence-pentagon-leaks-american-us-troops-ukraine-jack-teixeira-1794405
Are American Troops Fighting in Ukraine? What U.S. Intel ... - Newsweek

'One of the leaked files, reviewed by The Guardian, that appears to be dated March 2023, suggests U.S. officials assessed at the time that there were 97 special forces from NATO countries operating...'

 

Russia invaded Ukraine, Ukraine still stands.

 

The question has never been can Ukraine defeat Russia; the question has become can Russia defeat Ukraine.

 

How many Leftists are going to send their children to go fight? I’m guessing NONE.

And those over 18 aren’t going to go willingly, the Leftists who want everyone else fighting. What are they going to do, complain how the conditions are too unfair? Complain how the people they’re trying to kill aren’t diverse enough? Don’t think this generation has the balls to fight anymore. Rather become Tiktok famous.

 

That's just the point the leftists are not sending anyone to Ukraine to fight and they don't plan to.

 

Yet they are so going gung ho wanting to defend them. When there isn’t enough fodder, who they going to call? PolySci majors? Diversity Analysts? Philosophy dropouts? It’s one way for them to relieve their loan debt though. Hmmmm.

 

No one from the US unless NATO is attacked.

 

IRONY ALERT!

 

Wayback Machine? Must be a joke.
There are many men (and women) in the West who enjoy killing soviet/marxist ruZZkie parasites!
Comrade Putin doesn't stand a chance of winning the war.

 

Wayback machine? Not a joke, I did it for the reader's convenience since otherwise the article is viewable by subscription only. But that's some hard hitting commentary right there. Maybe I should put a warning tag on articles posted from there so you can avoid them.

 

Not sure where this 'image' is coming from... Russia's GDP has kept it well outside the 'super power' club for a few decades now. It has never been a secret that their military was largely comprised of poorly trained and poorly equipped troops with antiquated vehicles and undermined by rampant corruption. It was a bit surprising just how bad the corruption really was when the invasion began, and how well the Ukrainians nullified the initial blitz. But aside from their massive nuclear arsenal, much of it left over from the Soviet Union (and thus in questionable working order), Russia has not been a 'great superpower, second most powerful nation on earth' for a very long time, certainly not since the Soviet Union collapsed, and arguably since even before that.

Its just that it doesn't take a 'superpower' to win a war of attrition against a nation like Ukraine, with training and corruption problems of its own. Just the 4:1 manpower advantage Russia has over Ukraine is a nearly insurmountable advantage right out of the gate in a prolongued border war. Any hope Ukraine ever had of winning was based on wishing for a miracle, and that's never a good strategy.

 

Putin's tools have been parroting that since Trump's "savvy genius" blundered into Ukraine.

Ukrainians complete training on Abrams tanks as Kyiv makes battlefield gains​

 

They are making those gains quick enough.

The tanks haven't even been delivered to the theater of operations yet. The projected delivery is September, but that's a maybe.