US recession fears are growing

American business leaders who ship their corporate jobs overseas to use slave labor and maximize profit are afraid...

Good, the greedy immoral bastards should be.

 

If you believe Bush caused the recession, you're ignorant and nothing else you say matters.

 

Now suddenly, progressive liberals are all "defend capitalism". Lmao.

They know full well that current global trade formats work toward the detriment of the US.

No wonder they are all the sudden major advocates of global capitalism .

 

Mathematically we are overdue for a dip in our economy, irrespective of who sleeps in the White House. Typically, the longer it is postponed, the deeper it dips. If you did some research, you would already know this. Not really sure why you are concerned with this topic, it’s not like you are a participant in the economy.

 

Lol.

I love going back to the left wing hysterics and tear drops after they lost.

Such a ridiculous bunch.

 

Not sure "recession fears are growing", but I have noticed, particularly since the economy started booming, that there has been a steady number of 'analysts' saying bond prices, the Fed's interest rate pegging, mortgage rates, debt financing, inflation rates, Treasuries, consumer credit card debt, internet IPOs, commodities futures, oil prices, housing starts, unemployment rates, the PMI, and a variety of other "indicators", but especially Trump's trade policies, each unquestionably signal a huge depression is imminent.

I agree that trade relations enable US consumers to purchase cheap goods, and that tariffs impair this, that inflation is curbed by lower tariffs, that China has a lot of US bonds it could devalue by massively selling, that Chinese control over "rare earth" commodities could seriously impair technological development in critical sectors, I really don't thing oil prices or commodities futures (except those "rare earth" minerals) make that much difference, housing starts and mortgage rates are worth monitoring, bond prices are surging (diminishing the threat of Chinese wholesale dumping), but there are just too many moving parts to figure out how imminent this anticipated massive depression is.

Most of these analyses are too complicated to address in a single post, but I wonder to what degree realization the booming economy redituates to Trump's benefit in the election plays a role.

 

The PMI fell to a ten year low in May, the worst level since 2009 at the height of the financial crisis.

 

Separating children from parents & incarcerating both. Using indiscriminate incarceration instead of simply returning them to Mexico without breaking up families. Shutting down the asylum offices instead of evaluating applicants properly. Some asylum seekers are fleeing for their lives & deserve asylum. Trump is too extreme. He has no balance. He may be a successful commercial building tycoon, but he's a LOUSY President.

 

GW Bush was in office for 8 years, and the economic recession hit in his last year in office. The economy was Bush's economy for most of that time period--possibly after the first two years. He was responsible for it, and his policies allowed it to happen. Yes, Bush caused the recession. To deny it is the same as pretending Bush was President for 8 years & never had anything to do with running the economy, and that's nuts.

 

Many on the left would admit a problem with China stealing American technology, dumping goods on the US market, manipulating currency values, and taking billions from America each year with unfair trading practices. But Donald Trump has done nothing to stop China from doing those things.

Trumps China trade war has been going on for 2 years with no trade deal made. And today the Chinese government says "“When things are unfavourable to us, no matter how you ask, we will not take any step back. Do not even think about concessions."
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/dip...vice-premier-liu-he-go-washington-trade-talks
https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/03/investing/world-stock-markets/index.html

And the following has happened in Trump's 2 year China trade war,

General Motors will close several U.S. plants and lay off thousands of workers because of Trumps tariffs, and Ford made a similar announcement. Trumps tariffs raised GM’s costs up to $1 billion annually.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/f...trumps-tariffs-are-killing-us-jobs-2018-12-05

Trumps trade wars could increase the average American families expenses by $2,3000 a year.
http://time.com/5587197/trump-china-trade-war-cost-families/

The numbers of farmers filing bankruptcy has doubled, and US farmers have forever lost international customers (Countries like Russia are now selling China soybeans.)
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-china-trade-war-farmers-losing-patience-tariffs-1418947
https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia...de-tensions-to-sell-more-soybeans-11550745001

ex.ex.

And Trumps China trade war will not bring manufacturing jobs back to America. If a American company like Nike moves its production to America then a $120 pair of shoes will cost $300.
https://www.ft.com/content/bb3a3546-7c31-11e9-81d2-f785092ab560

Trumps China tariffs are causing Americans to import products from Vietnam instead of China. And "American imports from Vietnam rose 40.2 percent in the first three months of 2019, compared to the previous year."
https://www.newsweek.com/us-imports-vietnam-chinese-factories-move-tariffs-1437176

Trumps tariffs are causing "200 US Companies to Consider Moving Production From China to India."
https://www.theepochtimes.com/aroun...g-production-from-china-to-india_2897876.html

Trumps tariffs are causing US factories in China to move to Malaysia, the Philippines, and Mexico.
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/05/16/trumps-trade-war-is-making-mexico-great-226876

And according to Forbes there's "no end in sight to U.S.-China trade war."
https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnbr...in-sight-to-u-s-china-trade-war/#67ad97df1980


Then Trump started trade wars with Canada, Germany, France, India, Australia, and the EU (when he doesn't have a China trade deal and he hasn't even passed his Mexico trade agreement.)
https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/econ...a-considers-australia-7Wn7iqEGf063DCqqTQG5YQ/

And these unneeded trade wars threaten worldwide economic stability, cause people around the world to loose jobs and pay higher prices, and disrupt our allies economies.

 

The recession of 2008 never ended.

 

There will be a recession. That's part of the business cycle: three steps forward, two steps back. That's how it works.

But we don't know when a recession will hit. It could be this year, or it could be in ten years.

 

Hell there's 12 million in Texas. Even the liberals at MIT/Harvard estimated the number upwards of 27M a few years ago.

 

It's hard to say how much of it was actually part of a recession, and how much of it is part of a long-term economic downturn.

Signs of a looming recession actually began in late 2005 to 2006, and it did not really begin letting up until the start of 2016.
People disagree about how long exactly the recession was, because it's not exactly cut and dry.

By my estimation, it was approximately half as bad as the Great Depression.
Economists underestimate its severity.

 

Whatever. Your leader Nancy was speaker for the last two years of W's Presidency. Yeah yeah yeah, he's totally 100% responsible.

 

Trillions in QE and government spending were more than the gains in GDP

 

Agreed.

 

I would view GDP as more accurate if it were adjusted for real estate prices (i.e. adjusted downwards for rising real estate prices, so higher real estate prices do not inflate GDP.

I've done some very rough basic calculations and real per-capita GDP today is only about 20% higher than it was in the 70s.
How much has GDP really increased since 1970 ?

 

So what will Americans do with that extra money if they can't spend it in America?

At the very least, it's going to be a great way for the government to collect some extra money. Or do you prefer that money to come from taxing American industries, which will send more jobs stampeding away to other countries where the tax rates are lower?

Let's suppose you set the minimum wage to $20 an hour, and there then are not enough jobs for everyone at that wage level. Would you then be in favor of putting a tax on foreign imports to compensate for the cheaper labor cost overseas? Or are you okay with Americans not working because they can't work for less than $20, while a worker in another poorer country is allowed to do that same job for much less.

 

The Chinese save and invest.
The US borrows and spends.
The problem is the borrowing catches up with you, the saving and investing is economic growth.
I don't see how tariffs are going to change our patterns. We need to be encouraging investment over consumption.

 

What's wrong with a trade war? The worst that causes is for trade to be taxed. The horror!

(And not only that but if you really don't like that there's always the last resort of buying things from your own country, if it's ever less expensive than the tax)

If nothing else, a trade war would at least reduce the trade deficit.

This whole "trade war" thing is just grasping at straws.

 

U.S.GDP IN 1973 $1.43TRILLION.....U.S. GDP IN 2018 $19.39 TRILLION....GDP has grown by 13.5 times since the 1970's.

 

Maybe if things were so expensive that the American consumer could not buy as much, the American consumer would save more.

That was the case in China, there were not a lot of countries cheaper than China, so Chinese people could not pay someone else in another country less money to make their things.

Isn't that good for the environment too? Less transportation of goods, making those goods in factories that actually have stringent environmental regulations.

 

Again, see this thread: How much has GDP really increased since 1970 ?

per capita GDP adjusted for real purchasing power has only gone up by about 20 percent.

 

Maybe that's proof of an improving economy.

A lot of Mexicans were going back home when the economy tanked during the depths of the recession.