For those expecting herd immunity: this study kinda buries that possibility.

Discussion in 'Coronavirus Pandemic Discussions' started by Golem, Jun 24, 2020.

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  1. Golem

    Golem Well-Known Member Donor

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    Yeah yeah... We already read Trump's racist tweets. They are one of the main reasons why this country has had the absolute worst response to this pandemic in the world.
     
    Last edited: Jul 19, 2020
  2. Golem

    Golem Well-Known Member Donor

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    It will likely take more than a year for common people like you and me to get vaccinated. We just need to get used to wearing masks and keeping social distancing. Which will be easier and more effective when a sane government mandates it.

    There is a vaccine for the "common cold". It just stops working because the common cold mutates easily.

    As for AIDS.... probably the main reason why there isn't a vaccine is because it's not considered profitable.
     
  3. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    It's very doubtful a vaccine that is truly very effective will be available in a year, or even five years.

    If that was the case, they would have already developed a vaccine for the common cold and AIDS by now.
     
    Last edited: Jul 19, 2020
  4. Golem

    Golem Well-Known Member Donor

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    No, they wouldn't. But you just didn't bother to read the rest of my post, right?

    Oh well... Just trying to see if you were a serious poster. You failed....
     
  5. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Do you think we will be able to eliminate other common diseases like the flu and cold at the same time?

    And do you think, even after the country completely eliminates the virus, that we will be able to keep it out permanently?

    That might require some much better border enforcement, don't you think?
    It only takes one illegal migrant to reintroduce the disease and completely undo everything.

    What are the chances, do you think, that they will be able to completely eliminate this virus in the Third World? How long will that take? Maybe decades?
    I think you are extremely ignorant if you think this virus is going to be eliminated from the Third World anywhere near as easily as it could be in the First World.
     
    Last edited: Jul 19, 2020
  6. Golem

    Golem Well-Known Member Donor

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    What I think know was what I wrote in the part of the post you didn't read.

    Definitely! But on the part of other countries. Because everybody is doing a much much better job than we are.
     
    Last edited: Jul 19, 2020
  7. Jestsayin

    Jestsayin Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    You may just have inadvertently swerved into something useful. Mexico and Canada each build a wall along their borders with the us to protect their citizens from drifting into the US Chinese virus zone.
    Dial em' up and Get-r-done.
     
  8. Golem

    Golem Well-Known Member Donor

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    More like they will be building a wall to keep our Trump virus out of their clean zones to protect their citizens... and making us pay for it.

    If Trump is re-elected we'll become a third-world country anyway... And unlikely they will want to come here. Except maybe to buy drugs, cheap medicines and dollar-a-trick prostitutes. Or "Peso-a-trick"
     
    Last edited: Jul 19, 2020
  9. Jestsayin

    Jestsayin Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Either way, we become a winner. As for the dollar trick prostitutes and cheap meds, You probably know more than I about that topic.
     
  10. 557

    557 Well-Known Member

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    This is false. Vaccines for specific strains of cold viruses that were developed long ago are still effective against that strain. The reason there isn’t a comprehensive cold vaccine is because there are multiple viruses that cause colds (rhinovirus, coronavirus, parainfluenza) and there are a vast number of strains in each category. At least 200 total strains identified. Around 80 just for rhinovirus alone. Twenty percent of colds are caused by unidentified viruses.

    In contrast the flu vaccine in 2019 contained four strains. Two each for influenza A and B.

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-havent-we-cured-the-common-cold-yet/
    Pull quote.
    Sure. We spend $800,000,000 a year on something we don’t think will be profitable. An average of 2.5 vaccines for AIDS make it to pre clinical or clinical trials each year and fail. One hundred others in the last 20 years have failed before advancing to pre clinical trials. If this is all being done knowing it won’t be profitable, AIDS research is one of the biggest financial scams perpetrated on tax payers and philanthropists in history.

    All I can say is at least you changed your sig line. :)
     
  11. Professor Peabody

    Professor Peabody Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Please tell us about deaths per infections.
     
  12. 61falcon

    61falcon Well-Known Member

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    Wouldn't this also mean that there never will be a long term successful vaccine for Covid-19????
     
  13. 557

    557 Well-Known Member

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    The antibody type (neutralizing) that is often the best antibody predictor of vaccine longevity decreased very slowly in the linked study. This is very good news. Now the question is why do reporters and forum members ignore this fact and get angry if it’s pointed out to them?
     
  14. Golem

    Golem Well-Known Member Donor

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    In other words, you're saying that they stop working because they mutate easily. Wow! That's gen... Wait a minute. Isn't that what I said?

    Let me check. I said: "There is a vaccine for the "common cold". It just stops working because the common cold mutates easily."

    Yep! It is what I said!

    Dude! Do you know what the word "false" means?

    Oh! If that's how much we spent, please do let us know how much money in profits vaccines for AIDS have procured. I assume it must be close to a trillion dollars, right?

    And, if it's not too much trouble, could you please copy your post to the Brooking Institute so they can update their numbers?

    https://www.brookings.edu/wp-conten...ams-and-profitability-for-hiv-drugs_final.pdf

    You certainly need the old sig, don't you? I'll be sure to get it back as soon as the "wear a f...ing mask" message has stuck. You seem to make the same mistake every time,. if you are not reminded every day.
     
    Last edited: Jul 19, 2020
  15. Golem

    Golem Well-Known Member Donor

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    Sure.... you get infected... you could get very sick and might even die.

    My 11 year old nephew could have told you that!

    Any other questions? I'll have him answer the next one, if you want. So you don't feel too embarrassed, I mean.
     
    Last edited: Jul 19, 2020
  16. 557

    557 Well-Known Member

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    Yep that’s what you said. And I provided a link showing the opposite is true. A pull quote of a vaccine developer directly refuting what you claim. LOL. They don’t stop working. I provided a link and pull quote. Read them.
    Yes. Your claim is outright false.
    Ummm zero since no vaccine exists. Even though we spend $800,000,000 a year trying.
    What do profits on treatments have to do with a non existent vaccine? Your link shows there is plenty of money to throw around for drugs, why wouldn’t people spend money on a vaccine?
    You don’t even realize when you are embarrassing yourself. LOL
     
  17. Golem

    Golem Well-Known Member Donor

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    The question I was answering was: "why is there no vaccine for the common cold?"

    I say: "There is a vaccine for the "common cold". It just stops working because the common cold mutates easily."

    You say: "Vaccines for specific strains of cold viruses that were developed long ago are still effective against that strain."

    Of course they are. But not against mutations! Which is obviously what the poster was asking.

    Tip to avoid saying ridiculous things: If you are going to jump into a conversation that is already ongoing, make sure you understand what it's about!

    Well then now... I wouldn't consider zero very profitable.

    Ah! That was the question you should have asked instead of going off like you did.

    It has to do that if private investors don't think research is going to be profitable, they tend not to invest in it. Read the link!

    And you say it's my fault that you made this blunder because I removed my regular sig? So I guess that means you want me to remind you every so often...

    Here it goes...

    NB: It took me a long time to research the validity of my arguments, and I suggest you do the same. Please refrain from responding if the only argument you can come up with is a Conspiracy Theory.

    Thank you.

     
  18. 557

    557 Well-Known Member

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    You are incorrect. It isn’t mutations that are the problem. It’s the existing number of strains. Read the link. It’s all in there. The pull quote itself refutes your claim. It clearly states they don’t stop working because of mutations. Clear enough your eleven year old nephew could understand. :)
    I do understand. That’s why I am correcting your error. You made a false statement and I’ve told you before it’s important people understand how little you understand about these issues.
    But there is money. And we are attempting to develop a vaccine. Regardless of your silly opinions. We have been trying and failing. Not because there is or isn’t money to be made, even though there is, but because we just can’t figure it out. Why would pharmaceutical companies like GSK, Sanofi, and Johnson and Johnson spend millions of dollars and human capital on developing AIDS vaccines if there was no profit?

    We don’t have an AIDS vaccine because we can’t crack the code. Has nothing to do with money.

    Thanks for treating the forum to a belly laugh with your old sig line. You are easily manipulated. LOL.
     
  19. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Even Mexico, Brazil, and South Africa?
     
  20. Golem

    Golem Well-Known Member Donor

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    Huh?

    How in the world did you think new strains appear? Some sort of "common cold" deity?
     
    Last edited: Jul 20, 2020
  21. 557

    557 Well-Known Member

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    Read the link. You always want a link. Read it. Then you will understand why it isn’t mutation rates that are the problem. You said this:
    Your statement is false because the vaccines do not stop working. It’s clearly stated in the pull quote I provided from the link.

    It is also not true there is a vaccine for the common cold. There are incomplete vaccines that cover only a percentage of knowns strains. That’s also in the link. Get your nephew to explain it to you.
     
  22. Golem

    Golem Well-Known Member Donor

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    Abso-damn-lutely!

    Though Brazil has another Trump-like idiot in power, the fact is that none of those countries have anywhere near the resources to deal with this pandemic that we have. And that Trump has bungled.
     
  23. Golem

    Golem Well-Known Member Donor

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    Links are meant to support your argument. Not to make them for you. And I can tell you right now I have very little hope for the argument of somebody who has a "Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle" understanding of what mutations are.

    Pay attention: the vaccine for the "common cold" stops working for the "common cold" because of mutations. What use is talking about a vaccine that works for a strain that is no longer being transmitted? The fact that a vaccine works to stop one strain of the common cold is irrelevant to the question: "why is there not a vaccine for the common cold?"

    Obviously what the poster wants to know is why there isn't a vaccine that works for all strains of the common cold. Otherwise the question wouldn't make any sense.

    And the correct answer is: because of the constant mutations.

    So here I am juggling between one poster who doesn't understand what the common cold is, and another who doesn't understand what a "mutation" is. A very basic High School level course of Epidemics 101 would elucidate the matter. But the place for such a course is not a Political Forum. It's... High School!

    All one can recommend is that you start with the basics. What good is looking up research about vaccines and strains when you don't even understand what vaccines and strains are?

    But you're not going to learn the basics here. All you're going to get here is embarrassment for trying to talk authoritatively about matters about which you don't even know the basics
     
    Last edited: Jul 20, 2020
  24. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I have seen many articles that the actual infection rates in these other Third World countries could be much higher than the official statistics, due to their lack of available medical resources and lower rates of testing.

    That might make it unfair to the US in the statistics, since the US could be regarded as the only country having Third World like conditions but also having First World rates of testing.

    I have seen some news articles that nearly half of the people testing positive for coronavirus in some provinces of Mexico are dying. That seems to indicate to me that only the persons suffering extremely serious symptoms are getting the benefit of being tested.
     
    Last edited: Jul 20, 2020
  25. 557

    557 Well-Known Member

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    I’ve pointed out you are incorrect. I’ve provided evidence that I’m correct and you are wrong. I even supplied a pull quote for you.
    You are incorrect. There is not a vaccine for the common cold because there are too many existing strains. They are not changing. They already exist. You are confusing influenza with cold viruses. My link clearly states this.
    Again you are spreading a falsehood. The correct answer is there are too many existing strains. Not changing strains. The strains are stable unlike influenza.
    LOL. You are the one who doesn’t understand cold viruses. See above. See my link and pull quote.
    You need to do some research. Your claim is false.
    I’ll fill you in a little. When we consider the challenges of cold vaccines, the challenge is antigenic diversity. This means there already exists a large number of specific antigens. Here is an abstract quote from Frontiers in Microbiology. Note there is no mention of mutations being a reason for lack of a cold vaccine.
    When we talk about challenges of influenza vaccines your claim would be correct because the problem is antigenic drift and antigenic shift. (Mainly drift) This is caused by rapid mutation rates as well as how those mutations affect the virus. Here is some information on antigenic drift/shift. It goes into differences of how A and B influenza behave as well.
    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/viruses/change.htm
    So, this bit on the basics that I know and understand is why I spotted your error. I actually know what antigenic drift, shift, and diversity mean and how they apply to different viruses. If you did you would not have made the false claim that antigenic drift is why there is no cold vaccine. As I’ve demonstrated, it’s antigenic diversity that is the problem. That’s why this vaccine developer I quoted earlier said this:
    It’s time for you to either admit you are wrong or slink away. You are absolutely incorrect in claiming there is no cold vaccine because of constant mutations.
     
    Last edited: Jul 20, 2020

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